Nasdaq 100 Poised for a Deep Corrective Move After Breaking Key The Nasdaq 100 index has retreated toward a key area after a clear break below the ascending trendline that has held since mid-year, reinforcing expectations of a broader corrective wave. The current decline below the 25,000 – 24,600 zone indicates weakening bullish momentum, especially after breaking the previous low (Point 1), which supports the outlook for the index to move within a multi-leg bearish structure (five-wave decline).
The most likely scenario at this stage is a continued move lower toward the major moving averages, targeting the 22,800 – 22,200 zone as the first stage (Wave 3), followed by a limited rebound (Wave 4), before resuming the decline into Wave 5. This sequence would mark the beginning of a relatively deep correction compared to the prior bullish trend.
Market insights
SHORT UNTIL LATE APRIL 2026OUR OBSERVATION
NASDAQ made three significant tops in its price action from 2009 to the present in a sequence of an expanding Phi.
February 2020 High = 9736.57 (This is the 1.0 growth level divided into a Log function)
(9736.57 / 10^4) = 0.973657 (Equivalent to 3/3 = 1.0)
November 2021 High = 16764.86
(16764.86 / 10^4) = 1.676486 ( This is the 5/3 Fibonacci sequence or a variation of 1.618)
Current High at 27th October 2025 = 26182.10
(26182.10 / 10^4) = 2.618210 (This level indicates the 8/3 growth sequence or 2.618 level)
TRADE PLAN
If we project a sequence of thirds, (1/3, 2/3, 3/3), then the three tops from 2009 made an expanding sequence along 3/3, 5/3, and 8/3 nodal points , at 9736.57, 16764.86 and 26182.10 levels respectively. Each node effected a correction, and by projection, we expect price to correct steadily until late April 2026. (1,2,3,5,8...) points form the price tops. The zone between 26182.1 and 26880.XX will be our confluence zone to expect a decline.
We projected the 27th October top as far back as April 2025, where we mentioned a broader cross assets decline. If we compare NASDAQ's price to SP-500 and DJIA, then we can create a larger sequence pattern. SP-500 top reached 6920.34 being 2/3 on the sequence while DJIA reached 48040.64, the 13/3 node. Several markets reaching tops at the same time cooks a sharp long decline. Therefore, we will keep short entries for all three markets until the tops break.
NOTE: We do not trade news effects, we only trade measurable facts the charts indicate. However, we look to the news for signals that add strength to our expectations.
Trade safe, good luck
Nasdaq 100 Under PressureNasdaq 100 Under Pressure
As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index fell today (point 3) to its lowest level in a month, making it the weakest performer among the major US indices. The sell-off in the technology sector has been driven by a double blow:
→ A reassessment of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate move. According to market observers, the probability of a Fed rate cut on 10 December continues to decline and now stands at 43%, compared with 62% a week earlier.
→ Growing scepticism about the valuations of companies linked to artificial intelligence. A Bank of America fund managers’ survey revealed heavy overcrowding in tech: 54% cited “long Magnificent 7” as the most crowded trade, while 45% viewed an AI bubble as the biggest tail risk.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart
When analysing the hourly chart of the Nasdaq 100 on 10 November, we identified an ascending channel. However, mounting selling pressure has resulted in:
→ the channel being extended downwards;
→ its former lower boundary (which acted as support) now acting as the median line and serving as resistance.
From the demand perspective:
→ The lower boundary of the expanded channel may prevent a deeper bearish move.
→ The chart shows a sequence of false bearish breakouts (1–2–3), where the price dips slightly below the previous low only to reverse sharply upward — signs of a Liquidity Grab pattern that may indicate buyer aggression.
From the supply perspective:
→ The 25220–25415 zone appears to be a confirmed FVG area, where a clear market imbalance emerged and sellers strongly dominated.
Bulls may attempt to push the Nasdaq 100 back into the ascending channel, but whether this scenario plays out will largely depend on Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report — a key event for the technology sector, scheduled for release tomorrow.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SIGNS OF WEAKNESS ON NASNAS100 1H - This pair is showing signs of weakness, it looks as though price is respecting these areas of Supply and is continuing to trade us lower. We have also been delivered with a higher timeframe break to the downside.
This is indicating further bearishness in this market, I would personally be looking for short temporarily with this pair, as you can see price is approaching an area of Supply now, this could act as an entry point.
We need to wait for price to trade in, clear this area and give us some kind of entry confirmation before getting involved. We would need to see price break structure to the downside before taking us lower.
I have set an alert and will keep you all updated on whether or not I vet a valid short entry for this pair moving forward, its important we treat this pair with caution.
NAS100 Intraday Market Structure AssessmentActionable Trading Framework
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%)
Entry: 24,595-24,620 (consolidation breach confirmation)
Target 1:24,680 (+$62 risk/reward)
Target 2: 24,750 (+$132 profit extension)
Stop Loss: 24,550 (-$45)
Trigger: Break above 24,650 with volume confirmation on 5/15-min charts
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%)
Entry: 24,680-24,710 (rejection candle formation)
Target 1: 24,600 (-$80 to +$30 range)
Target 2: 24,520 (-$160 reversal)
Stop Loss: 24,760 (+$50)
Trigger: Failed breakout attempt + RSI divergence on 1-hour chart
Key Technical Confluences
✓ EMA 20/50 Crossover Zone → Dynamic support (1-hour timeframe)
✓ VWAP Alignment → Acts as pivot point at 24,635
✓ Harmonic Pattern → Potential bullish AB=CD completion near current zone
✓ Ichimoku Tenkan-sen → Resistance pressure at 24,705
Execution Rules
1. Entry Confirmation: Engulfing or Pin Bar + Volume Spike on 5-min chart
2. Risk Management: Maximum risk per trade = 1% account size
3. Time Window: Optimal trading 08:00-15:00 UTC+4 (high liquidity period)
4. Exit Protocol: Trail stop at 15-pips after Target 1 achievement
Nasdaq 100: Bulls on the Back Foot as 50DMA Gives WayOur Nasdaq 100 contract is looking heavy. Very heavy.
The price action has been increasingly unconvincing for bulls in November, culminating on Monday with the price closing beneath the 50-day moving average for the first time since April. That’s a noticeable departure from what was seen when tested in the recent past, with the price often reversing higher immediately after. Not on this occasion.
Should the price remain below the 50-day moving average, the next focal point is uptrend support that’s been in place for over six months. In each of the past two sessions the price has traded through the level only to reverse higher, attracting buyers on dips beneath 24650—that’s the battleground to watch in the near term.
If the price were to close beneath uptrend support and 24650, it would bolster conviction that a deeper downside flush may be coming, allowing for shorts to be established with a stop above the uptrend to protect against reversal. 24000 provided support and resistance earlier this year, making it a potential initial target.
Of course, should the price remain above the uptrend, the setup could be flipped with longs set above it or the 50DMA, should the price reclaim it. 25200, downtrend resistance from the record highs, or 25715 are all potential targets. Given the unconvincing price action recently, an obvious bullish reversal signal would be preferable before considering long setups.
The message from RSI (14) and MACD is tilted lower when it comes to directional bias, with the former trending beneath 50, indicating building bearish pressure. MACD remains in positive territory, although having already crossed the signal line from above, at the very least it’s indicating waning topside strength. Given its trajectory, it may soon confirm the bearish signal.
Good luck!
DS
NAS100 Future: The Model #1 Bounce at CRTL SupportTimeframe: 15M | Model: CRT Model #1 / Turtle Soup Reversal
The Nasdaq Index is presenting a high-probability Candle Range Theory (CRT) setup after an aggressive drop. The price action perfectly encapsulates the Manipulation (Candle 2) phase and is setting up for the explosive Distribution (Candle 3) move.
The market has completed a textbook Turtle Soup (TS), aggressively pushing below the structural support to liquidate short-term positions. This hunt was contained by the confluence of the CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low) and a strong underlying Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Here’s the step-by-step breakdown (The CRT Checklist):
Liquidity Sweep: The deep wick confirms the Turtle Soup, clearing the stops below the previous support area around 24,862.53.
Confluence: The reversal attempt is happening right off the FVG area, giving high confidence to the long thesis, as outlined in the CRT Secrets Series (Episode 5: Key Levels).
The Trigger: We are now waiting for the final confirmation—the bullish Model #1 candle close. This candle must reverse the market structure and close decisively above the manipulation low (back into the range).
Targets:
Primary Objective (CRTH): The target is the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at 25,217.65, aiming to fill the liquidity above the initial range high.
Mindset: As the chart suggests, this reversal setup has the potential for a swift expansion move, seeking higher liquidity pools.
Discipline: Avoid the temptation to enter early. We must wait for the Model #1 candle to close and confirm the shift in control from sellers back to buyers. Trade what you see, not what you think!
Trade Smart. Trust the Candle Close.
Greetings,
MrYounity
US100 - BEARISHEvening all!
Keeping it simple and short, the dollar is undervalued, and everything (indexes, crypto, precious metals) all melting up at the same time - im anticipating an end to 2025 that see's the dollar rise, and the melt up, melt down!
For US 100 - Target/draw on liquidity is the Weekly STL overall.
Tech Sector Pauses|USNAS100 Awaits Direction Between 25430–25700USNAS100 | Overview
The price is currently consolidating between 25430 and 25570, showing a slight bearish bias as momentum weakens near resistance.
As long as the index trades below 25570 and 25700, the outlook remains bearish, with downside potential toward 25430 and 25220.
A confirmed break below 25220 would accelerate losses toward 25010.
However, if the price closes a 4H candle above 25700, it would signal a bullish reversal, opening the path toward 25820 and 25985.
Pivot Line: 25570
Resistance: 25700 · 25820 · 25985
Support: 25430 · 25230 · 25010
NASDAQ Can the 1D MA50 give one more rally??Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and Friday saw the price breaking below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the pattern, but managed to close back above it for the 2nd time in a week (blue circles).
This resembles the September 02 break, which eventually also closed above it and initiated a +9.59% Bullish Leg. With the 1D RSI also testing a similar Support Zone with September's, we expect the index to initiate the new Bullish Leg, as long as it continues to close its daily candles above the 1D MA50.
Our Target is 26900 (+9.59%).
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