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Soybean Oilshare Futures

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OSF1! trade ideas

$SOYB / $ZS_F: Weekly and monthly trends are upSoybeans have been consolidating and shorts have been hitting the same level near the invasion day highs for 3 months give or take, today price broke out and confirmed a weekly trend signal. The monthly timeframe indicates beans can rally until October 2022, so, getting lower timeframes to turn bullish again presents us with a massive reward to risk long opportunity here. I bot July futures / $SOYB calls today, aiming to capture the move shown in the continuous chart here. If you want you can join the trade when beans futures open tonight, keep in mind you will need to roll the position to the next contract month 8 calendar days before the expiration date give or take (you'll see volume is high on that day), or, to make it simpler, buy the Nov 18 $31 strike $SOYB calls. If you buy futures, calculate risking a drop under last week's low, if you buy options, calculate risking 1-5% of your capital in call premium. Over time we might be able to bet on higher strikes as well, or trade around the position in shorter term timeframes (often good to delta hedge calls with 15m setups on the short side if you're good at scalping, then use proceeds to add to the call position for increased exposure without increasing risk). Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Soybean Technical Update (6.8.22)Soybeans (July) Technicals: July soybean futures were able to defend trendline support in the prior two sessions which helped spark a rally in yesterday’s trade. That rally has led to follow-through buying in the overnight/early morning trade with July futures making new contract highs. The market has been up here a few times in the past few weeks but failed to find more buyers. Time will tell if this time is different. With the market at new contract highs, the task of finding the next meaningful resistance point becomes more difficult. Going off the continuous chart you could use the February 24th high for the March contract, 1759 ¼ and the April 22nd high from the May contract, 1757 ½. Finding meaningful points above that is a game of pin the tail on the donkey. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1757 ½-1760** Pivot: 1750 Support: 1717-1720***, 1690**, 1673-1679 ½***
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans: Consolidation is the Name of the GameSoybeans Fundamentals: Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the U.S. soybean crop is 78% planted, 2% behind estimates but only 1% behind historical averages. 55% of the crop is emerged. Techncials (July): Consolidation looks to be the name of the game as the market is forming a wedge of higher lows and lower highs. This could lead to a bigger directional move once the wedge is broken. With the market consolidating, many of our technical support and resistance levels remain intact. First resistance comes in from 1717-1720. Support comes in at 1690. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1717-1720***, 1734-1741***, 1750** Pivot: 1700 Support: 1690**, 1673-1679 ½***, 1665 ½-1673 ¾****, 1605**
CBOT:ZSN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish dropType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 1716'4 Pivot: 1702'6 Support : 1675'4 Preferred Case: Price is moving below the ichimoku cloud which supports our bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1702'6 where the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 1716'4 in line with the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1675'4 in line with the swing low support, 100% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Poor Export Sales May Halt The Soybean Rally Soybeans Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 111,600 MT for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 60 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 284,000 MT for 2022/2023. Technicals: Soybeans have been all over the map in the list five sessions, averaging a daily range of 52 cents. Yesterday’s move out above our pivot pocket from 1695 ½-1700 opened to door for an extension to our next resistance pocket, 1734-1741 (yesterday’s high was 1740 ¾). The very recent trend has been a day of “consolidation” after a big move (like we saw yesterday). From a risk/reward perspective, we don’t mind leaning on the short side so long as resistance is defended ahead of the weekend. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1734-1741***, 1750** Pivot: 1695 ½-1700 Support: 1673-1679 ½***, 1665 ½-1673 ¾****, 1605**
CBOT:ZSN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Are Soybeans Going To Breakouit?July soybean futures have been volatile over the last five sessions, trading in an average daily range of 52 cents. The market is threatening the upper end of the recent trading range which is also the contract high. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it would put prices in "uncharted territory" and momentum could begin to feed on itself. With that said, there is a risk/reward trade to the sell side against technical resistance, because you know where you are wrong and it's well defined, new contract highs. Weather will continue to be a pivotal player in price action. Right now, it seems that weather is near ideal for some of the major producing states.
CBOT:ZSN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish dropType : Bearish Continuation Resistance : 1697'0 Pivot: 1685'0 Support : 1667'2 Preferred Case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1667'2 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and swing low support from our pivot at 1685'0 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance,38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1697'0 in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Daily Grain Futures Volatility Forecast 26 May 22 ZS ZC ZW WHEAT ZW 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 4.17% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1180 BOT 1085 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN ZC 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2.41% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 781 BOT 744 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEAN ZS 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 90% chance to be below 2% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 1709 BOT 1641 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZS1!
by exlux
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1718'6 Pivot: 1692'4 Support : 1676'4 Preferred Case: With MACD moving in a bullish momentum and prices breaking the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1718'6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot of 1692'4 in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1676'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1734 Pivot: 1702 Support : 1687 Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1734 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from our pivot of 1702 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1687 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tickmill
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1734 Pivot: 1702 Support : 1687 Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1734 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from our pivot of 1702 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1687 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1702'6 Pivot: 1684'0 Support : 1661'4 Preferred Case: With price being above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1702'6 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot of 1684'0 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1661'4 in line with the horizontal overlap support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tickmill
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1702'6 Pivot: 1684'0 Support : 1661'4 Preferred Case: With price being above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1702'6 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot of 1684'0 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1661'4 in line with the horizontal overlap support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1702'6 Pivot: 1692'6 Support : 1687'4 Preferred Case: With price being above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1702'6 in line with the swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot of 1692'6 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1687'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1679'2 Pivot: 1662'2 Support : 1650'2 Preferred Case: With price bouncing off our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1679'2 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1662'2 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1650'2 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tickmill
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 1679'2 Pivot: 1662'2 Support : 1650'2 Preferred Case: With price bouncing off our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1679'2 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1662'2 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1650'2 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: No Major News Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv