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E-mini Dow Jones ($5) FuturesE-mini Dow Jones ($5) FuturesE-mini Dow Jones ($5) Futures

E-mini Dow Jones ($5) Futures

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YM1! trade ideas

YM 9/4 1hrMonthly timeframe Pink Weekly = Grey Daily = Red 4hr = Orange 1hr = Yellow 15min = Blue 5min = Green 4 candles, 6 Levels, & MarketMeta Range = 2 or consecutive candles of the same color. Distribution Range - When price is above a distribution range it will act as support. When price is below, the SwingLow will be the boundary/entrance/exit of the range. Distribution ranges consist of the 1st candle called the BackSide and last candle called the Frontside. Each has expectations. BackSide candle (BS): expectation=strong reaction to price, support price. Hold price above it. Mark this level with a horizontal ray tool on the topside wick or topside body. FrontSide candle (FS) expectation = support price until trend reversal. Protects the SwingLow, exit of range. To mark this level, place the horizontal ray tool on the topside wick or topside body. SwingLow = the bottom side wick of the FrontSide Candle. Boundary of the range. The Accumulation Range - When price is BELOW an accumulation range then these levels will act as resistance to price. Inverse Backside (Inv.BS)= the first candle in the accumulation range. Its marked on the bottom side wick or body of the candle. Its usually next to a Frontside candle. Traders like to see Inverse BackSide candles engulf Frontside candles and create an impulsive Fair Value Gap. These f.V.G's next to FrontSide levels have higher probability than those that don't have the engulfing, F.V.G.. the last candle in the accumulation range is the Inverse FrontSide (Inv.FS) marking the topside wick with the horizontal ray tool is to mark the SwingHigh Level. Mark the bottom side wick or body to display the Inv.FS level.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
Revision to Prior Idea. Range Bound SellsI want to scratch my prior idea as the market is showing me it is in a distribution phase in this range. I am confident that the all time high will hold until price pulls back down to the prior low of 43,400 and then take out the all time high. Does this look familiar? The exhaustion bar with ZERO follow through is what is telling me this range will break bearish. Price is bumping its head on that weekly close Another clue is on the Weekly chart. Price closed above barely with a peek a boo. High chance of a false break reversal. On the weekly chart, you don't want to see a break and close above with no follow through. It is not a sign of continuation. It is a sign of a false break reversal. When it false breaks, it reverses back to the other side of the range.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
selling pressure or lack or buying pressure presents breakout ?* looking at this pattern and pivot points we see a reduction of power from buyers, unable to push the market higher, while sellers then are logically stronger. * buyers are currently holding the price point in the purple line marked, but they are less able to defend it with every attempt to break what do I think will happen next? * a break of the purple line and a push downward by sellers seems likely simply by looking at the narrative shown by price. * we have hidden bear divergence and we have a break of obv uprend showing sellers power increasing
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by jacesabr_real
September Gameplan Down Month To Sweep Lows B/O ATHsSeptember I am going to look for bearish trades in line with these three peak wedge formations. I am looking for 46,000 to possibly be the high of month What I am seeing is a build up before the break out of all time highs. I believe the market will make one more dip down to the 43,000 area before the breakout. The biggest clue was August 22nd's exhaustion bar. Another huge clue is the start of September is a holiday at the top of the wedge and the start of a new month. New Month, New Timing Cycle. How I will be playing September: I will limit myself up to only 10 trades One trade per Daily Candle when Initiating a trade 120 tick stops 480 tick targets 4 to 1 Hold overnight until stop or target is hit Aim for a 40% win rate 4 wins 4*4=16 6 losses 6*1=-6 Net +10R
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Dow Jones (YM) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date: September 8, 2025 Current Price: 45,537 Market Session: Post-Market Analysis --- Executive Summary Dow Jones presents a moderately extended equity position with manageable risk characteristics compared to other major indices. While trading above institutional accumulation levels, the extension is less severe than S&P 500 or Nasdaq, making it the least dangerous of the equity exposures. However, institutional positioning analysis reveals limited upside potential with asymmetric risk favoring defensive strategies. --- Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis Institutional Positioning Intelligence The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals a concerning pattern typical of extended equity markets in late-cycle environments: Primary Institutional Activity Zone: 42,000-43,500 Moderate blue volume concentration representing historical institutional positioning Current price (45,537) trades approximately 2,000+ points above primary accumulation Volume density significantly lighter than commodity accumulation patterns Institutional activity appears distributed rather than concentrated Extension Analysis: Core Accumulation: 42,500-43,000 (peak institutional activity) Extended Zone: 43,500-44,500 (moderate institutional interest) Current Level: 45,537 (approximately 5-7% above institutional positioning) Void Risk: Above 46,000 (minimal institutional support visible) Resistance Structure Analysis: 45,800-46,200: Immediate resistance with mixed volume activity 46,500-47,000: Historical distribution zones from previous highs 47,500+: Complete institutional void representing extreme overextension Price Structure Context Historical Pattern Recognition: The current Dow Jones setup displays classic late-cycle equity characteristics where price has methodically ground higher above institutional accumulation zones. Unlike the catastrophic voids seen in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, YM shows a more measured extension that may be sustainable in the near term. Relative Risk Assessment: Manageable Extension: 5-7% above institutional levels vs 15%+ in other indices Blue-Chip Nature: Dow composition includes more defensive, dividend-paying companies Institutional Memory: Historical support levels around 42,000-43,000 well-established Risk Definition: Clear institutional boundaries provide defensive positioning reference Sector Composition Considerations Dow Jones Defensive Characteristics: Utilities and consumer staples providing defensive anchor Financial sector exposure to interest rate sensitivity Industrial components reflecting economic cycle positioning Technology weight lower than growth-focused indices --- Execution Chart Technical Analysis Current Technical Configuration - DETERIORATING MOMENTUM DEMA Analysis - WARNING SIGNALS EMERGING: Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at 45,537 Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at 45,480 Configuration: Bullish but narrowing gap indicating momentum loss Trend Bias: Technical momentum weakening despite bullish configuration DMI/ADX Assessment - MOMENTUM DETERIORATION: ADX Level: Declining from previous highs, currently around 25-30 +DI vs -DI: +DI losing dominance, -DI starting to gain ground Momentum Direction: Showing signs of exhaustion after extended advance Trend Strength: Weakening ADX suggests institutional conviction fading Stochastic Analysis - OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS: Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Overbought territory with negative divergence Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Extended levels showing momentum fatigue Divergence Analysis: Price making new highs while momentum indicators lag Support and Resistance Levels Critical Technical Levels: Current Resistance: 45,800 (near-term extension limit) Key Resistance: 46,200 (major resistance zone) Major Resistance: 46,800 (dangerous overextension territory) Immediate Support: 45,200 (DEMA cluster) Key Support: 44,500 (institutional extension boundary) Major Support: 42,500-43,000 (primary institutional accumulation) --- Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria Scenario 1: Defensive Profit-Taking Setup (PRIMARY) Optimal Conditions for Position Reduction: DEMA momentum loss: Gap narrowing between black and orange lines DMI deterioration: -DI gaining on +DI with weakening ADX Stochastic overbought: Both timeframes showing exhaustion signals Volume analysis: Declining volume on any advance attempts Resistance respect: Failure to break above 46,000 cleanly Profit-Taking Protocol: Primary Action: Reduce positions by 50-75% at current levels Secondary Reduction: Complete exit on any bounce to 46,000+ Stop Management: Trail stops using 300-point intervals Cash Allocation: Redirect capital to commodity opportunities Scenario 2: Range-Trading Setup (SECONDARY) Conditions for Tactical Range Trading: Defined range: 44,500-45,800 (institutional boundary to resistance) DEMA maintaining bullish bias within range Volume profile respect at key levels ADX below 25 indicating sideways consolidation Range Trading Parameters: Long Zone: 44,500-44,800 (institutional boundary approach) Short Zone: 45,600-45,800 (resistance approach) Stop Distance: 300-450 points maximum Position Size: Reduced allocation (1% account risk maximum) Scenario 3: Breakdown Short Setup (AGGRESSIVE) Short Entry Conditions: DEMA bearish crossover: Black line breaking below orange line Support violation: Break below 44,500 institutional boundary Volume confirmation: Increased volume supporting breakdown DMI alignment: -DI gaining clear dominance over +DI Short Setup Parameters: Entry Range: 44,200-44,400 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: Above 45,000 (failed breakdown) Targets: 43,000, 42,500, 42,000 (institutional accumulation zones) Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-trend positioning --- Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Guidelines Conservative Approach (Strongly Recommended): Maximum Risk: 1% of account (reduced from standard due to extension risk) Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.01 ÷ (Stop Distance × $5) Example: $100,000 account with 400-point stop = 50 contracts maximum Rationale: Extended positioning requires defensive allocation Stop Loss Hierarchy Tactical Stop: 45,000 (execution chart support cluster) Strategic Stop: 44,500 (institutional extension boundary) Emergency Stop: 43,800 (institutional accumulation approach) Portfolio Management Framework Defensive Positioning Strategy: Current Holdings: Reduce exposure by 50-75% New Positions: Avoid until return to institutional levels Capital Reallocation: Redirect to commodity opportunities (NG, CL) Monitoring Frequency: Daily assessment of momentum deterioration --- Market Context and External Factors Fundamental Considerations Affecting Dow Performance Economic Cycle Positioning: Federal Reserve policy uncertainty affecting financial sector components Industrial sector sensitivity to economic slowdown concerns Consumer discretionary weakness impacting retail components Utility sector providing defensive characteristics in uncertain environment Sector Rotation Implications: Value vs growth rotation potentially favoring Dow components Dividend yield advantage in higher interest rate environment Defensive sector weighting providing relative outperformance potential International exposure through multinational components Technical Market Structure Relative Performance Analysis: Outperforming S&P 500 and Nasdaq on risk-adjusted basis Less extended from institutional levels than growth indices Better volume profile support at key technical levels Defensive sector composition providing downside protection --- Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels Daily Monitoring Requirements DEMA Configuration: Watch for gap narrowing or bearish crossover Institutional Respect: Monitor behavior at 44,500 extension boundary Volume Analysis: Track volume patterns on any advance attempts Sector Rotation: Monitor defensive vs growth sector performance Correlation Analysis: Track relationship with bond yields and dollar strength Critical Alert Levels Risk Escalation Alerts: DEMA bearish crossover below 45,400 Break below 44,500 institutional extension boundary Volume breakdown with accelerating selling pressure ADX rising with -DI dominance confirming bearish momentum Defensive Action Triggers: Any failure to break above 46,000 on multiple attempts Stochastic negative divergence with price at new highs Sector rotation away from Dow components toward defensives Federal Reserve policy announcements affecting interest rate expectations --- Strategic Outlook and Risk Assessment Risk/Reward Analysis Asymmetric Risk Profile: Upside Potential: Limited 500-800 points to dangerous overextension Downside Risk: 2,000+ points to institutional accumulation zones Risk/Reward Ratio: Unfavorable 1:3+ downside vs upside Probability Assessment: Moderate (40%) for further upside, High (70%) for correction Portfolio Allocation Recommendation Defensive Positioning Required Dow Jones represents the least dangerous equity exposure in current market conditions but still requires defensive management. The 5-7% extension above institutional levels, while manageable compared to other indices, suggests limited upside potential with significant correction risk. Priority should be placed on systematic profit-taking and capital reallocation to higher-conviction commodity opportunities. Allocation Framework: Current Portfolio Weight: Reduce to 5-8% maximum (from previous levels) Entry Method: Avoid new positions until institutional level return Hold Period: Short-term tactical only, exit on weakness Exit Strategy: Systematic reduction on any bounce attempts --- Conclusion and Strategic Assessment Dow Jones offers the best risk profile among equity indices but remains fundamentally challenged by extension above institutional positioning. The defensive sector composition and less severe overextension provide relative safety, but the asymmetric risk profile strongly favors capital preservation over growth seeking. Current conditions warrant defensive positioning with readiness to exit entirely on any momentum deterioration. Strategic Priority: Capital preservation and systematic risk reduction while maintaining readiness for complete exit if institutional extension boundaries are violated. Next Review: Daily monitoring of momentum indicators and institutional level approach Position Management: Systematic profit-taking with defensive stop management --- Important Disclaimer Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor. Key Risk Considerations: Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance does not guarantee future results Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework. The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by mxb1961
Bearish Weekly Trending Cycle To me, this week is looking like a weekly candle that is going to be a bearish trending cycle. Sunday, Monday formed the high of the week and immediately sold off. Tuesday and Wednesday was mean reverting around 250 forming a falling wedge consolidation for Thursday/Friday to continue the bearish trend. I am currently short inside the consolidation. To me, this wedge consolidation is the middle pause in the trend week and it seems like the goal is to take out August's level. If bearish trending cycle, then Non Farm Payrolls will be bearish and sell off, closing near the lows. I am only going for a 2.5 risk to reward. I have been burned too many times swinging for the fences holding on to big trades only to lose money. My system is 2.5 to 1. Another clue is the consecutive lower openings each day. Sunday opened at the extreme high at 650. Wednesday opened at 320 and now Thursday opened at 250
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
return to major buyers presents an on trend continuation entry1->4 : creates a higher high , number 3 is the market participant in control and to whom we are waiting for a returnt to from the high number 4 what do I think will happen next ? * if we return to number 3 we have an opportunity to join the market ontrend , we would need a minimum of 3 independant confluences as well as a micro bullish bar pattern * bullish rsi and mfi , also oversold on both * reverse pitchfork is frequency aligned to number 2 pivot outside as well as inside frequency line * vwap 2nd standard deviation off number 4 pivot and 1st standard deviation off number 1 pivot
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by jacesabr_real
08/28 Sell How to Use Pin Bars.Well as you can see the trend was bearish so I was looking for sells. In addition, the pin bar formed at a key level and I entered after it broke the support level. 1. Variation: Yellow ( Trend): The trend is bearish so look for sells 2. Wick Rejecting the Upside: Pin Bar in Blue. I needed this wick to put my SL and confirm the upside is being rejected 3. I entered after it broke with a lot of power. Key Notes: Pay attention to demand and supply levels and specific set ups in those areas.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by El_Conde_Montecristo
Pullback into 45,000 Long 3 bars down plus gaps I am looking for a pullback into the 75% retracement area that also coincides with 45,000. Round numbers being double zeros. I am expecting Wednesday to also be a down day. The trade Long, I am expecting it to be on Thursday with Friday being another Long continuation day to finish the month out strong. These are my two trade Ideas for both 4 to 1 opportunities. Thursday low of week Friday trend continuation I am looking for the following price action circled in green to be the order flow needed to fuel the move back up. Creep lower into 45,000 getting shorts chasing down low for the reversal. Big moves take time to setup and so I will be waiting.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Buyers Dominate as Dow Micro Futures Push Higher Price Above Moving Average: The current price is trading above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, showing bullish momentum. Bands Expanding Upward: The Bollinger Bands are sloping upward, indicating increasing volatility in the direction of the trend. Price near Upper Band: Price is near or hugging the upper band, which often signals strong bullish continuation. Immediate Support: Around the middle Bollinger Band (~44,500 zone). Next Resistance: Near recent highs around 45,100 – 45,200 area. If broken, this could trigger a breakout continuation.
CBOT_MINI:MYMU2025Long
by Sahrin