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Micro Bitcoin Futures (Aug 2024)

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MBTQ2024 trade ideas

will BTC plummet? or is this the buildup to trigger 75k??? theres two ways id look at bitcoin, either id be waiting for a buy on 3rd leg down, or seeing it it breaks for 75 first. i would really like to see the 3rd push down and an explosive move to 75k. lower low made on tuesday, higher high made today, chances of going parabolic later in the week thurs/fri have increased drastically! tomorrow is day 3 ill be looking to see a coupel different scenarios. waiting for previous day high or low to be taken out first then seeing how price responds from there. its a buy low template for tomorrow in 1 of the 3 sessions so be ready. tonight or tomorrow. i repeat buy low template!! id be waiting for PDL to be taken out theres a few different ways to play first green day. be patient and sdave your bullets!! there will be plenty of opportunities
CME:BTC1!Long
by thesturdygentleman
BTC on CME - Confirming Breakout?Here we have the CME chart and we notice something very interesting which could lay out Bitcoins direction for the coming week. On Friday Bitcoin closed at $69,650 on CME which "coincidently" closed the candle body exactly on top of that white trendline. Today, CME is about to open in 2 hours and currently BTC's price should align again with the same trendline. This is the 1D chart so we need to see confirmation close above to confirm this retest as a new level of support and confirmed breakout to higher highs. This means if on Monday CME is able to defend this level that should give us the ability for price to retest $71.3k on the spot chart and as soon as we get a 3D close above $71.3k we are starting the next leg of the bull market.
CME:BTC1!
by VIAQUANT
BTC/USD bowl. Breakthrough 64-72. Cyclicality. Nasdaq - BTC.Logarithm. Completion time 1 week. Instead of updating an old idea regarding the Nasdaq Index and BTS on pump cup formation published on 06/17/2023, I decided to implement the idea on a live chart. Comparative analysis. Fractal. Lag. Bitcoin and Nasdaq 17 06 2023 I have applied the cup percentages as well as the cup with handle if formation occurs (high probability). Although the cycle high targets and timing are the same as what I showed in 2022 during the Bitcoin accumulation phase. So, for clarity with the last cycle and its highs in 2021. BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings . 1 07 2022 BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high. 02.09.2023 BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle 09 2023 At the moment, the price is above the “demons of Solomon” zone, that is 72,000. Zone 64-72 – resistance of the large bowl (last cycle highs 64-69). Let's follow the fractal similarity of 2015-2017. There is a high probability that a rollback will occur slightly higher, and a long-term bullish formation will be formed (trend direction, large time frame) — “Bowl with handle”. Or straight to the psychological level of 100?). Pay attention to interest rates and price levels in the past and now. 1️⃣ Let me remind you that in April the halving is closer to the 20th. Most likely this will happen on the day "18" . Do you think that bitCocaine will cost 84,018 closer to this time?) What will happen to this zone? 2️⃣ Psychological PR level - the zone for Bitcoin is $100,013. 3️⃣ Everything else probably looks unreal for most market participants, but what is shown now is real, just as it was a very long time ago. Adhere to these simple rules: 1) Understand and exploit the cyclical nature of the market. 2) Buy low, sell high. And not vice versa like most). 3) Take profits in parts on the hype (now) in a growing trend or protect with a stop loss. 4) Have an understanding of the relationship between the liquidity (capitalization, roughly speaking) of a trading instrument and its volatility and potential. 5) If you trade locally. The crowd is shouting: “cryptocurrency is a scam” - buy it. “Crypto hype” - sell it. 6) Do not be interested in the news and the opinion of the majority, this is all “taken into account in the price movement schedule.” 7) Always have at least 20-30% of stablecoins in reserve. If, for example, in a developing trend there is a correction to quickly remove longs (futures, margin with large shoulders, in spot - stop loss) by a significant%, and some of your stops do not work due to price slippage, then a “cash airbag” will calm and warm you in such an unpleasant moment).
CME:BTC1!Long
by SpartaBTC
6
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin From K1 to K3, it is a three soldiers advancing pattern, K3 close below the long-term uptrend line. It is a bad signal for the long-term holders. It seems that the following candles will keep falling to test the neck line. The problem for the bull force is lacking enough demands. If the following candles fall to test the 0.382-0.5Fib area to find enough demands, The bull market will likely recover its strength. The potential valuable area to increase long positions at about 58-54K. I still think it is a long-term bull market, But it must be verified by the following candles. If the following candles close below the neck line, the risk will sharply increase.
CME:BTC1!
by nothingchangehere
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May. Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit. RSI looks okay but not great. $ Flow is not that great either. Spot #Bitcoin = ditto. However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages. What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs! -------------------------------- Not shown here, pls see profile for more info. Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first. Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan). Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon. #crypto
CME:BTC1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
1
Long ETH, Short BTC on Expected ETH ETF Approval SEC's unexpected nod for Ethereum Spot ETFs (“ETH ETFs”) through the approval of 19b-4 forms has ignited a fresh wave of excitement in crypto markets. This paper delves into the impact on ETH/BTC Ratio fuelled by this development. The ratio has been a laggard throughout the current bull run. ETHER ETF ADVANCES TOWARDS APPROVAL On 23rd May, the SEC unexpectedly approved the 19b-4 forms, permitting CBOE, Nasdaq, and NYSE to list ETH ETFs. This surprised participants who anticipated a rejection. Take note that this does not signify that spot ETH ETFs are approved for trading yet. The applications must still clear the next hurdle, which is the approval of the S-1 form. This process could potentially be drawn out over the next couple of months but there are encouraging signs. Last week, Blackrock updated its S-1 form for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), suggesting that the issuers and SEC were working towards fine-tuning the details. The Block reported that other issuers were told to send in their updated S-1 filings by Friday 31/May. Additional rounds of revisions are expected before a final decision. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas opines that approval could come as soon as June. A key point of interest for ETH ETFs will be whether the ETH held in these instruments can be staked. Staking Ethereum generates 3.4% APR (Annual Percentage Rate) as of 3rd June. Staking is exposed to risk of losses through slashing. Yet, it makes Spot ETFs attractive to investors. ETH ETF WILL DRIVE SPOT DEMAND Like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, ETH ETFs will drive additional spot demand for the cryptocurrency. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than USD 13 billion of capital inflows . Spot ETFs represents new source of demand and in the month following its launch, inflows drove large price moves. ETH ETFs are unlikely to attract the same level of demand as Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into ETH ETFs are expected to be a fraction of those into BTC ETFs, with ETH assets constituting about 10%-20% of BTC assets in various regions, according to comparisons of currently listed instruments. Source: Eric Balchunas on X Projecting this level of spot demand, ETH ETFs could witness inflows between USD 1.1 billion (10% of BTC inflows) to USD 2.2 billion (20% of BTC inflows) over the next three months. ETH HAS LAGGED IN THE CURRENT CRYPTO RALLY BTC has been the clear winner in the current crypto rally. BTC is the only large crypto to exceed its previous all-time-high until now. In terms of relative performance, other cryptocurrencies have displayed robust performance too. Other crypto-assets Solana, Dogecoin and Binance Coin have surged to outperform BTC over the last six months. ETH has been a noticeable laggard. ETH had been underperforming even BTC until 20th May. Following the rally after approval, ETH has just managed to catch up to BTC performance but still lags relative to smaller (and riskier) crypto assets SOL, DOGE, and BNB. To get a sense of relative performance, we can plot the ratios of these crypto assets with BTC. This chart makes ETH underperformance relative to BTC even clearer. This underperformance might suggest that investors have moved away from ETH. That risk when flipped could also present an opportunity for ETH to outperform BTC in the coming weeks. ETH/BTC ratio is a mean-reverting quantity and relative to the peaks seen during past cryptocurrency bull runs, the ratio is low. Notably, the ratio rallied sharply after BTC reached new all-time-high levels in the past. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Approval of ETH ETFs in the near term is likely to translate into spot buying, driving up prices. A hypothetical trade consisting of a long position in the ETH/BTC ratio will benefit as ETH outperforms BTC. Investors can execute a spread trade on the ETH/BTC ratio using CME Micro Bitcoin and CME Micro Ether futures. Each contract of Micro Bitcoin futures provide exposure to 0.1 Bitcoin and each contract of Micro Ether futures provide exposure to 0.1 Ether. Eighteen contracts of Micro Ether are required to balance notional value on both legs of the trade. • Entry: 0.0547 • Target: 0.0600 • Stop Loss: 0.0520 • Profit at Target: USD 655 • Loss at Stop: USD 336 • Reward/Risk: 1.95x Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.28. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly. Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 54,810 at a ratio of 0.05481 as of May 31). These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs (USD 6,800 vs USD 28,000 for the same notional value). However, investors should be aware that these newly introduced futures have poor liquidity compared to individual Ether and Bitcoin full-size and micro futures contracts. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
CME:MBT1!Short
by mintdotfinance
7
MBT long/short if-then scenarioIf price returns to discount, then I am looking at Friday's BISI for longs. There is 1D v.POC & t.POC in proximity. I prefer this first, as untapped t.POC at 69650 is a great initial target for longs Stop loss near the 67100 local low upon End of Value The higher probability, if price forces a higher high I am looking for a short Right above this local high is a t.POC, there is also as SIBI from Thursday. Also a very large volume node & potential for RSI bear div. I will NOT put blind limits for anything. I will be watching structure on the lower TF (5min) as we approach these key levels; among other edge, & these are just key levels N.F.A.
CME:MBT1!
by dontbeal8m8