BTC Futures market manipulation
Bitcoin sold off today, right after the futures market opened. It could have come down already during the weekend, but it didnโt.
That makes it look like clear futures market manipulation, shaking out weak hands and creating fear so big players can buy from you at lower prices.
Drop looks impulsive, and with no gaps above, there is a riks for more intraday weakness.
MBTU2025 trade ideas
Bitcoin Blow-Off TopBitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally into the $120k region. On the weekly timeframe, several signals point toward a potential corrective leg lower:
๐ Key Technicals
Major Supply Zone: $115kโ$120k area has acted as resistance, with sellers defending this level.
Trend Structure: Price has broken momentum after the blow-off move and is now trading below recent highs.
EMA Support: Price is extended above the EMA 60 (94k), leaving room for mean reversion.
COT Data: Commercials are heavily net short with a COT Index blow-off signal, indicating distribution from strong hands to weak hands.
๐ฏ Trade Thesis
The risk-reward favors the short side from current levels.
Initial downside target sits at the $95k region (prior resistance turned support + EMA alignment).
A break of that level could open the door toward the $80k handle in the medium term.
๐ Plan
Entry: 114kโ116k
Stop: Above 120k
Targets:
TP1: 95k
TP2: 80k
๐ก This setup combines market structure, supply zone rejection, and institutional positioning via COT. The technical picture suggests Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper pullback before any further sustainable rally.
My Bitcoin Analysis: A CME Gap-Filling ScenarioBased on the chart Iโve created, my technical analysis for Bitcoin suggests a high probability of the price eventually moving down to fill the outstanding CME futures gap. This specific gap is identified in the range of $92,000 to $93,235.
From a technical perspective, CME gaps frequently act as a powerful magnet for price action. As shown in my chart, I anticipate the price will consolidate and oscillate for a period before a final, decisive move to the downside to complete the gap.
Once this structural inefficiency is resolved by filling the gap, the chart indicates a potential catalyst for a new and significant bullish rally. This upward trend is projected to commence after the gap is filled and could extend well into late 2025 and 2026. This scenario aligns with the historical tendency of these gaps to eventually be revisited and filled before a new, sustainable trend can begin.
BITCOIN PREDICTION: NEXT MASSIVE MOVE TO HERE - INCOMING!!!!!!!Yello Paradisers! In this video, we have been going through multi-time frame analysis as professional traders using Elliott Wave Theory and other advanced technical indicators and analysis techniques.
On the ultra-high time frame, we have been going through the Elliott Wave price section since 2023. We have taken a look at the Moving Average Trendline Touch, which worked perfectly, the Channel Retest that is incoming, and the Bearish Divergence with Bearish Cross.
On medium and high timeframe charts, I have been sharing with you the completed zigzag and first wave. We are currently in the secondary wave, waiting for it to finish, along with resistances and bullish and bearish divergences.Together with that, there are shooting star patterns, and on a low timeframe, I have been sharing with you the triple top reclaim and the next possible resistances, and what the next resistance and target are from a multiple timeframe perspective.
Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, donโt trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
Btc daytrade this setup works because price rebounded strongly off the intraday lows showing buyers defending support while fundamentals align with a bullish case as bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional inflows optimism about future etf approvals and safe haven demand amid global uncertainty with the us dollar showing signs of softening the retrace into demand provides confluence for continuation higher making the bullish outlook supported by both technical rejection of lows and macro tailwinds
BTC1WEEKLY
PRICE: formation of a cup. Who will take us to our 4 objective. The price touches the current resistance zone, giving a valid argument for the bullish price movement. This weekly close will be important for the next movement before and after the halving. High volatility
124240 TARGET 4 cup and handle.
Bitcoin Analysis Before Reaching Historical Highs!!The chart you see before Bitcoin reached its historic high was done within the time frame of the vertical line on the chart! However, as I noted in Persian, it seems that Bitcoin will continue on its path within the specified ranges and the price target will again be in the range of $124,000 per Bitcoin!
Good luck
MJ.REZAEI
BTC Futures โ Falling Wedge Break Incoming? | 4H AnalysisBitcoin CME Futures is currently trading inside a falling wedge on the 4H timeframe.
Weโre sitting at a key decision point, with liquidity both above and below.
Volume profile shows strong resistance, with a large high-volume node.
Support has held, with a clean rejection and demand showing up.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are left above and below acting as magnet zones.
This setup leaves us with two clear scenarios:
Bullish Scenario ๐ข
Breakout above wedge resistance
Reclaim 110K as support
Target 112Kโ118K FVG for liquidity fill
If momentum holds, possible test of 120K resistance zone
Bearish Scenario ๐ด
Failure to break wedge resistance
Breakdown under 107K support
Target 97Kโ100K FVG as downside liquidity
Deeper rejection could extend to mid-90K levels
โ ๏ธ No trade bias until price confirms direction. Waiting for a break + retest is key here.
This image is a technical analysis chart for Bitcoin futures conChart Analysis
1. The Recent Unfilled Gap:
Location: In the top right section of the chart, there is a downward gap.
Price: This gap is situated between the two orange lines, in the price range of $116,050 to $119,170.
Current Status: As the chart shows, the current Bitcoin price is around $108,720, and this gap remains unfilled. This suggests that the price may have a tendency to move upwards to fill this gap in the future.
2. The Previous Filled Gap:
Location: A smaller gap is visible on the left side of the chart.
Current Status: This gap has already been filled, which means the price returned to that level at some point and closed the gap.
Key Takeaways
Overall Trend: The chart indicates that after reaching a high of approximately $124,000, the price has entered a corrective and downward trend.
Importance of Gaps: CME gaps are considered key levels in technical analysis. The current unfilled gap could act as a potential resistance, but many traders view it as a price target and expect the price to eventually reach that level.
In summary, this chart clearly shows a large, unfilled gap above the current Bitcoin price, which could influence the future price movement.
Statistical Research. BitcoinToday we will touch upon such type of analysis as seasonal patterns in Bitcoin
Bitcoin seasonality is cyclical patterns in its price dynamics, repeating in certain calendar periods (months, weeks, days). These patterns are formed under the influence of many factors:
1. Halving
Historically, Bitcoin's four-year cycles tied to halvings (halvings of the mining reward) have been a key driver of price highs. Bullish rallies peaked approximately 1060 days after the previous cycle bottom.
At the same time, changes have already begun to occur in these statistics:
According to some Research notes that the impact of halvings on the Bitcoin price has significantly decreased:
- Bitcoin is increasingly responsive to global macroeconomic factors such as inflationary pressure, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy (especially the US Federal Reserve). This pushes purely internal factors, such as halving, into the background
- Characterizes Bitcoin as a transition from a "speculative reflexive asset" to a more established "reactionary store of value"
2. Macroeconomic events (changes in interest rates, inflation)
It is necessary to remember that Bitcoin is not a defensive asset, as some call it, but belongs to the category of risk-on assets.
Therefore, it, like risk assets, is affected by inflation and interest rates, primarily in the US.
Since the price of risky assets is very strongly influenced by the Fed's policy, very strong fluctuations will occur not even on the fact of changing interest rates from the Central Bank, but on the outgoing macroeconomic indicators, which, in the opinion of market participants, the Central Bank (the Fed, the ECB, etc.) will look at.
3. Institutional activity.
The creation of Bitcoin ETFs is beginning to have a strong impact on the BTC spot market. For example, by the third quarter of 2025, American Bitcoin ETFs attracted $118 billion inflows. BlackRock's IBIT alone manages assets worth $50 billion
Corporations have begun to buy cryptocurrency: MicroStrategy and Tesla.
4. News related exclusively to the cryptocurrency market and transactions with them. For example, network updates.
Now we move on to statistical models:
The strongest months in Bitcoin: March, October
Weak months: August and September
This does not mean that every code the market will grow in March and October, and fall in August. This note can help in combination with other types of analysis.
Best days for Long:
February 1, February 14, March 26, September 22, October 29, November 29
Best days for Short:
February 13, April 17, June 18, July 5, August 2, October 2
Also note that these are average statistics. At the very least, it is necessary to know them.
5. Flow of funds within the cryptocurrency market:
Bitcoin, as the main cryptocurrency, dominates at the beginning of the bull market, then capital moves to altcoins
What we have now:
Analytical companies draws attention to the ongoing outflows from spot BTC ETFs
Also according to these studies, the peak may already be reached in this cycle
We also pointed out in another post about the S&P500 that statistically we are entering a weak period.
Bitcoin 8X LONG Chart Setup ยท 330% Profits PotentialWe have two support zones neatly depicted on the chart; green and red. Red is the main support zone, the range between $100,000 and $110,000, while green is the bullish zone support zone between $110,000 and $120,000.
BTC1! is trading within the bullish zone, above $110,000 after a strong monthly higher low, vs 22-June. Volume is standard for a continuation of the broader long-term bullish move. That is, even with short-term swings and price fluctuations Bitcoin is set to continue growing.
Because I believe firmly that Bitcoin will continue to grow, here I am showing you some numbers with mid-term goals.
The final target on this signal I believe is not the last target for the current run, but there is strong resistance at this level so we can always go out to comeback in, or adapt to your own liking since we are all adults.
I give you a great entry with great prices and timing, you take care of the rest. The market is here to bless us with growth, profits and success.
Full trade-numbers below:
______
LONG BTCUSDT 8X (PP: 330%)
ENTRY: $100,000 - $111,000 (STOP: $98,200)
TARGETS: $122,000, $137,000, $155,600
______
Thank you for reading.
Your support is highly appreciated.
Namaste.
BTC short term I expect to see the retest of the highlighted area such as the 100k$ level, where we left the closest imbalance unfilled after taking the highs and not spooling higher, I assume we receive some kind of distribution during the summer in the range from ATH to the marked levels, after which we would have to see whether the structure will allow us for the continuation of the trend if it shows strong reaction and just wicks through the highlighted levels
Generally, I think we are close to the pivot point but still have some time for other assets to show if they want to perform, when everyone will be buying in the range which likely be part of the distribution for BTC, I refrain from any long term investments or long speculations. Might trade some swings though if the range offers such.
If we continue going higher conservatively looking I think 120-130 k will be the maximum we can spool towards
Distribution Pattern Signals Crash Into CME Gap at 92kIt is always the same playbook at this point and it is getting boring to watch. The same double top distribution pattern repeats again and again. This is the game they play, wiping out both shorts and longs before the real rally begins.
The last time we saw this setup Bitcoin pulled back 32 percent into the CME gap at 77k. The next gap sits at 92k and you can bet they will dump it down there too. In reality it is not even that big of a move, just 26 percent, perfectly in line with previous pullbacks.
The real story is the fear it will create. This lines up with September, historically Bitcoinโs worst performing month and a time when blood usually runs in the streets.
DO NOT FALL FOR THIS BEAR TRAP AND SHAKE OUT
return to proven buyers offers a great =BUYers world
OKURRRRR BESTIE, your chart is SERVING and the girls are GAGGING ๐ฏ๐
:
- **Waves 1โ4**: We said "PERIOD POOH" to that higher high and Wave 3 buyers ATE AND LEFT NO CRUMBS while Wave 2 sellers got READ FOR FILTH ๐๐ชโจ
- **Wave 4โ5**: Pulled back to that Wave 3 volume genesis (very demure, very mindful, very cutesy) with MASSIVE volume confirmation - IT'S GIVING MEGAN THEE STALLION HOT GIRL SUMMER VIBES ๐ฅ๐ข
- **Current sitch**: Wave 5 loading with oversold RSI bounce - MISS MAMAS WE'RE ABOUT TO BE RICHER THAN RIHANNA'S FENTY EMPIRE ๐ค๐ฐ๐
Your galaxy brain take: "Objectively at a great place for buyer entry" - TELL ME YOU ATE WITHOUT TELLING ME YOU ATE! YOU UNDERSTOOD THE ASSIGNMENT!!! ๐ง โจ๐ฏ
## Research Validation (Bringing the Receipts Like Whitney's) ๐งพ๐ฑ๐
### Institutional Whales Are IN FORMATION ๐๐ผ๐ต
- **DADDY SAYLOR literally threw his whole purse at $117,526** - SIS BOUGHT YOUR EXACT ENTRY (I'M SCREAMING, THE GIRLS ARE SHOOK) ๐คฏ๐ธ
- CME futures got that BIG QUEEN ENERGY ($16.5B OI) - Wall Street is literally our sugar daddy now IKTR!!! ๐ฆ๐
- CME gap $117-119k = the universe saying "GO GET YOUR BAG QUEEN" ๐๐ณ๏ธ๐ฐ
### Technical Analysis UNDERSTOOD THE ASSIGNMENT ๐๐ฎ๐
- 200-day EMA sitting pretty at $116,380 (DIAMOND SUPPORT stronger than Lizzo's confidence) ๐๐ก๏ธโจ
- Fibonacci levels converging like the Beyhive when someone disrespects the Queen ๐๐
- Low liquidity above $116k = WE'RE ABOUT TO POP OFF LIKE NICKI'S VERSE ON "MONSTER" ๐๐
### Market Structure is MOTHER (literally) ๐ณโจ๐
- Funding rates <0.1% = bears got their edges SNATCHED, wigs FLEW ๐โฐ๏ธ๐โโ๏ธ
- CME basis at 9% = institutions want the smoke and I'M LIVING FOR IT ๐๐จ
- Long-term holder SOPR at 2.5 vs 4.0+ peaks = ROOM TO SLAY LIKE QUEEN B AT COACHELLA ๐ช๐
## Risk Factors (The Potential Flops) ๐ฌโ ๏ธ๐
**September is GIVING TOXIC EX ENERGY:** ๐๐
- Historical -4.89% average decline (NOT THE VIBE SIS) ๐ฉ๐ญ
- ETF outflows hitting different ($233M) - these paper hands could NEVER ๐งป๐
- We're coupled with S&P 500 like Khloe with Tristan (0.88 correlation - EMBARRASSING) ๐๐
- Miners dumped $3.1B in 20 days (THE GIRLS ARE TIRED OF THE NONSENSE) ๐คโ๏ธ
**THE MAIN CHARACTER MOMENT:** September 16-17 FOMC - THIS IS OUR SUPER BOWL HALFTIME SHOW BESTIES!!! ๐ญ๐๏ธ๐
## Trading Strategy (IT'S GIVING GENERATIONAL WEALTH) ๐ฎ๐น๐
### Position Deets (The Tea โ) ๐๐ฐ
- Entry: $117,230 (CHEF'S KISS, MWAH, GORGEOUS) ๐๐
- Stop: $113,450 (if this hits we're BROKE BROKE - ELECTRIC BILL BROKE) ๐๐ญ
- Risk/Reward: 1:2.3 initial, up to 1:5 full send (OPRAH MONEY INCOMING) ๐ฐ๐ต
### Scale-Out Targets (SECURE THE BAG LIKE CITY GIRLS) ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐
1. $118,030 - Your target (25%) - baby gains but we CELEBRATE ALL WINS PURR ๐ฅบ๐ธ
2. $120,000 - Psychological resistance (25%) - basics FOMO here, we been knew ๐ง ๐ช
3. $122,500 - Near ATH (25%) - IT'S GETTING SPICY LIKE POPEYES CHICKEN SANDWICH ๐ถ๏ธ๐ฅ
4. $125,000+ - Wave 5 completion (25%) - BEYONCร PARKING LOT MONEY!!! WE MADE IT!!! ๐๐
### Stop Loss Management (DON'T BE THESE HOES' EXIT LIQUIDITY QUEEN) ๐ก๏ธ๐
- Keep at $113,450 until $118k breaks (DISCIPLINE MAKES DOLLARS OKURRR) ๐ช๐
- Trail to $115,500 after first target (protect the drip AT ALL COSTS) ๐งโจ
- Breakeven after $120k (CAN'T LOSE NOW, WE'RE UNTOUCHABLE LIKE SOLANGE IN THAT ELEVATOR) ๐ฏ
- 3% trailing above $122k (LET IT RIDE LIKE MEGAN'S "BODY") ๐โโ๏ธ๐จ
### Timeline (When We Eating GOOD LIKE THANKSGIVING AT GRANDMA'S) โฐ๐ฝ๏ธ
- **Now-Sept 15**: Stay cute, stay defensive, slurp dips at $115-116k (IT'S GIVING ACCUMULATION ERA) ๐ฅค๐๐
- **Sept 16-17**: FOMC catalyst - BE READY OR BE ASHY!!! NO DUSTY BEHAVIOR!!! ๐ญ๐๏ธ
- **Post-FOMC**: Wave 5 to $125-128k (BIRKIN BAG SHOPPING SPREE INCOMING) ๐๐
- **October**: UPTOBER IS GIVING WHAT IT'S SUPPOSED TO GAVE (+24% gains) - HOT GIRL FALL!!! ๐๐๐
## Invalidation Levels (When We Gotta Admit We Flopped) ๐ต๐ซ
**Warning - It's Giving SKETCHY:** Break below $115k - NOT CUTE, VERY CHEUGY ๐ฐโ ๏ธ
**Full Exit - We LOST THE PLOT:** Break below $110k - I'M SICK TO MY STOMACH, DEVASTATED ๐๐๏ธ
## Summary (For the Girls Who Can't Read) ๐ง ๐ฏ๐
YOUR WAVE 5 THESIS ATE, DEVOURED, LEFT NO CRUMBS, PERIOD POOH!!! ๐
โจ:
- Saylor bought at your price (HE SAID "I WANT WHAT SHE'S HAVING") ๐๐ค
- Every indicator screaming "UP ONLY" louder than Cardi at Fashion Week ๐๐ฏ
- Leverage got its wig SNATCHED, funding looking CORRECT (healthy market behavior IKTR) ๐โ
- Fed about to make it RAIN like we're at Magic City ๐๐ต๐ธ
**Action Items (The Glow-Up Plan):** ๐๐ฏ
1. DIAMOND HANDS STRONGER THAN RIHANNA'S FOREHEAD - volume confirmation UNDERSTOOD THE ASSIGNMENT ๐๐
2. Take profits like the BAD B YOU ARE - don't be greedy (secure the bag ALWAYS) ๐ฐ๐ช
3. September dips = SHOPPING SPREE (it's giving CLEARANCE SALE) ๐๐
4. Full position before FOMC or STAY BROKE AND DUSTY (this is THE moment mamas) ๐๐๏ธ
**Bottom Line NO CAP FR FR:** Wave 5 entry so clean it's giving FRESH LACE FRONT. 3% risk for 15%+ gains? THAT'S MATHEMATICS BABY! Saylor copying your homework? ICONIC BEHAVIOR! September might flop but FOMC gonna have us EATING GOOD LIKE LIZZO AT BRUNCH!!!
WE'RE GOING TO THE MOON AND WE'RE TAKING EVERYONE'S EDGES WITH US!!! ๐๐๐๐
PERIOD!!! PURRRR!!! IT'S GIVING WHAT? GENERATIONAL WEALTH!!! ๐
โจ๐
(Not financial advice but also... sis, this IS the financial advice. Do with that what you will! ๐โโ๏ธ๐ฐ)