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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Sep 2019)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Sep 2019)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Sep 2019)

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Sep 2019)

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ES - December 4th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 4th- Daily Trade Plan - 8:30am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You can review my trade plan from yesterday and the daily note updates to see which levels we grabbed points from. Overnight we have been building a nice bull flag between 6854-6870. Looking at the bigger picture price looks like it wants to go higher and break out of this range we have been. My general lean today is that we have a flush and reclaim of 6854 before heading up. We might only get as low as 6861. IF price loses 6818 then we should move lower. Key Levels Today 1. 6861 flush and reclaim 2. 6854 flush and reclaim 3. 6847 flush and reclaim 4. 6837 flush and reclaim 5. 6818 flush and reclaim (wait for reclaim of 6824) Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels 5. White shows overhead resistance/targets
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
11
Day 80 — From Green to Red: The Danger of OverstayingEnded the day -$256 trading S&P Futures. I was actually up +$250 early in the session, but I made the mistake of itching for more after playing it safe with small gains all week. I decided to size up to 6 contracts on a Buy signal that looked solid, but the market had other plans. We saw a "flash crash" out of nowhere that stopped me out, only for price to rip all the way back up after tagging the 10-minute MOB. It felt scammy, stressful, and honestly, it ruined the day. It’s a harsh reminder that right now, the longer you stay in this market, the more dangerous it gets. 🔔News Highlights: *S&P 500, NASDAQ END HIGHER, VIX FALLS AS INVESTORS BRACE FOR KEY INFLATION DATA 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6840= Bullish Level Below 6830= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
6
Day 78 — Surviving the Chop: When Nothing WorksEnded the day +$36.64 trading S&P Futures. Today was super stressful despite the small green finish. The market structure was flipping up and down constantly, with no real trend and moving averages/zones failing to hold. It honestly felt like one of those days where the Market Makers are specifically trying to break trader psychology and force mistakes. Usually, when I see this kind of chop and manipulation, it signals that a big directional move is brewing for later in the week. 📰 News Highlights OPENAI DECLARES ‘CODE RED’ AS GOOGLE NASDAQ:GOOGL CLOSES IN 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6830 = Bullish Below 6800 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
ES - December 5th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 5th- Daily Trade Plan - 7:30am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We had a nice push higher into the close yesterday and set the overnight low at 6861. This low produced a nice bounce for about 25pts into the overnight high of 6886. Technically we continue to make higher highs and higher lows. We are coming into some key resistances that will determine if this consolidation range has been distributing or accumulating by the institutions this week. We can see clearly on a 1hr time frame chart that 6836 was our last big dip yesterday that produced a nice rally yesterday afternoon and into the overnight session. Price needs to hold 6818 for this trend to continue. Ideally, we can get one more big flush below 6836 and quickly reclaim for a quality failed breakdown. Flush and reclaim of the overnight low at 6861 is another quality level to look for. 6874 is the lowest quality level but might be all we get. Key levels today 1. 6874 flush and reclaim (lower quality) 2. 6861 flush and reclaim (high quality) 3. 6847 flush and reclaim (Can wait for reclaim of 6861 for higher quality) 4. 6836 flush and reclaim (might only get to 6841 or 6847) IF price does clear 6897-6900, we should continue higher into the 6952 and then ATH's. IF price loses 6836 and cannot quickly recover then we could be in for a strong sell off below. I will with 6812, 6801, 6790 being the top 3 levels I will be looking for points. Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels 5. White shows overhead resistance/targets
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
4
Day 81 — 100% Signal Accuracy & Back in RhythmEnded the day +$287.49 trading S&P Futures. After the stress of the last few sessions, I’m finally feeling better and getting back into a solid rhythm. Today was one of those rare days where the system was absolute perfection—we went 6 for 6 on the signals. With the market clinching a 4-day winning streak ahead of the Fed meeting, it was all about trusting the data, following the market structure flips, and executing cleanly without overthinking it. 🔔News Highlights:*DOW ENDS UP 100 POINTS, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH 4-DAY WINNING STREAK AHEAD OF FED MEETING 📈Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6855= Bullish Level Below 6842= Bearish Level
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
ES - December 8th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 8th- Daily Trade Plan - 7:10am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I would go back and review Friday's trade plan and the updated notes throughout the day. It was a great day that produced some great levels for points. It started out with the flush and recovery of 6861. 6874 then became a magnet level that produced some great flushes to 6867 and reclaim of 6874. Overnight we flushed down to 6872 (Overnight Low) and reclaimed 6874 for a nice 22pt move that created the Overnight High of 6893. As of writing this post we lost a micro support at 6888 and are bouncing at 6880. Since we are in a tight range and we have FOMC on Wednesday we may continue to chop around the next 2 sessions until we get a breakout or breakdown later this week. Key Levels Today 1. 6880 - Flush and Reclaim (lower quality) 2. 6872 - Flush and Reclaim (high quality) 3. 6867 - Flush and Reclaim (high quality) 4. 6857 - Flush and Reclaim (highest quality) While we need to focus on the current trend (which is up) any loss of 6857 (and no quick reclaim) would change the structure of the trend. Price needs to clear 6904 to create higher highs. Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels 5. White shows overhead resistance/targets
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
S&P500: Futures Stuck in Tight Range S&P 500 futures traded mostly sideways yesterday, remaining confined within a tight range. In our primary scenario, however, we anticipate that magenta wave (4) will soon resume its downward move. During this phase, the index is expected to initially break below the support levels at 6540 and 6371 points. We then look for the final low of the wave (4) correction to occur within our green Long Target Zone between 6163 and 5912 points. Once this low is established, the subsequent wave (5) should propel prices above resistance at 6952, marking the peak of the broader blue wave (III). Immediately after, we expect the onset of magenta wave (1), which should kick off a significant corrective phase. However, if the index continues to fall below the Long Target Zone, our alternative scenario may come into play (probability: 31%). In that case, it would suggest that the alternative blue wave alt.(III) has already completed and the major correction is already in progress.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HKCM_Global
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zone, Setups for Fri (Dec 5th)Market Overview The daily trend remains firmly upward, with prices pressing against the November swing-high band, characterized by a sequence of higher lows and a gradual ascent toward previous peaks. Momentum indicators on both the daily and 4-hour charts are on the rise, yet they have not entered extreme levels, suggesting a likelihood of continued upward movement into the upper premium band rather than an imminent substantial reversal. On the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) has been consolidating in a narrow range, roughly between 6835 and 6880, as it builds energy just below the prior high. This range coincides with the 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone, located around 6895 to 6917. Given this setup, the outlook for tomorrow appears slightly bullish, provided the price remains above the mid-range support levels. Market Brief: Key Developments for December 5, 2025 As we approach the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year scheduled for December 9 -10, market participants are increasingly pricing in a substantial likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, along with further easing anticipated in the coming year. For tomorrow, however, it’s important to note that the widely followed November employment situation report (including Non-farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate) has been officially postponed to December 16 due to the ongoing government shutdown. While some generic calendars may still reflect the original December 5 date for the payroll figures, this information has become outdated. At this time, it appears unlikely that any partial wage data will be released in lieu of the full report. Nevertheless, many calendars are still marking U.S. hourly earnings and related labor indicators for the morning session. Expectations are set for hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls, and unemployment rate placeholders around 8:30 AM ET, alongside the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports at 10:00 AM ET. In practical terms, traders should expect regular liquidity levels in Asian and London markets. However, be prepared for potential volatility spikes around the 10:00 AM ET release of the U. Michigan data, especially if any unexpected headlines arise concerning the delayed labor report. Market Outlook: Overnight Trends into New York Trading Session As we head into the New York trading session, the key focus remains on the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). The base case scenario suggests that as long as ES maintains support above the significant range of 6854 to 6858 - often referred to as S2 - during any dips seen in the Asian and London sessions, we can anticipate a gradual upward movement. This trajectory would likely involve repeated testing of resistance levels around 6875 to 6880 (R1). Should we witness consistent hourly closes that approach this resistance with only modest pullbacks toward 6860, the likelihood of a breakout toward the premium zone of 6895 to 6910 increases, potentially occurring before or during the New York session. On the other hand, the alternative scenario would unfold if the market decisively breaks below S2, resulting in a series of hourly closes beneath 6854. Such a development would signal a shift in sentiment and a potential rotation toward support levels S3 and S4, which target 6835. This would likely create a mean-reversion environment, with trading in New York focused more on the lower half of the 6835 to 6880 range rather than pushing for a breakout above resistance. Investors should tread carefully as these scenarios develop. A++ setup 1 - Long breakout continuation above 6875 Bias: continuation long, only if we see real acceptance above R1. Trigger conditions: 15m candle closes with a solid body above 6880, turning the 6875 - 6880 band from Entry zone: 6878 - 6882 on the first 1m/5m higher low after that pullback holds. Initial stop: 6869, tucked below the 6870 intraday pivot and just under the reclaimed band. • TP1: 6904 - 6908, inside the 6895 - 6910 premium band, giving you roughly 2R or better if you are filled near the middle of the entry band and respect the tight stop. • TP2: 6915 - 6918, near the 1.618 extension. A++ setup 2 - Short reversal from failed break 6895 - 6910 Bias: high-quality fade only if the market runs stops into the premium band and then traps longs. Entry zone: 6890 - 6896 on a retest of 6895 from below after that rejection is confirmed. Initial stop: 6908, above the rejection high and inside the upper part of the premium band. • TP1: 6858, back into the VWAP / prior value area pocket. That gives you roughly 2R or better if you are filled near mid-band with a 10 - 12 point stop. • TP2: 6843 - 6845, test of NYAM low. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a pivotal decision point following a robust advance in the market. As long as the support level around 6855 remains intact, any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, particularly targeting the premium range of 6895 to 6917. However, a decisive rejection from this premium zone, with prices falling back through 6870, may signal an A++ short opportunity, potentially driving prices down toward 6858 and beyond. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setups for Tue (Dec 9th)ES Market Overview (Daily/4H/1H) The daily trend in the ES market remains bullish, with prices consistently above the most recent higher low while approaching a significant multi-month supply zone characterized by the 6,980-7,020 range. Although momentum has moderated, it has not completely reversed, suggesting that buyers continue to support dips, while larger market participants exercise caution around the 7,000 mark. On the 4-hour chart, we have identified a new swing high near 6,900, followed by a notable pullback that touched the 6,820-6,840 area and subsequently rebounded. This development maintains the sequence of higher lows; however, sellers are becoming increasingly active with each attempt to rally towards the 6,880-6,900 range. Examining the shorter-term 1-hour and 30-minute charts reveals that Monday experienced a lower high compared to last week's peak, leading to a decline towards the 6,820s before regaining ground in the 6,860s. Currently, the ES is positioned midway within the support band and beneath the intraday highs around 6,875-6,895, indicating a balanced short-term outlook: buyers are engaged below the 6,850 level, while selling pressure emerges near 6,890. Macro Backdrop for Tomorrow As we approach the December FOMC meeting, which kicks off tomorrow with the decision and subsequent press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected on Wednesday, market positioning is likely to remain cautious, especially near the upper range. Key U.S. data releases scheduled for tomorrow include the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:00 ET for November and the postponed JOLTS job openings report at 10:00 ET for October. These reports provide insights into hiring trends and business sentiment following the autumn slowdown and recent government shutdown. In particular, the 10:00 ET release could trigger increased volatility. Furthermore, the global tone appears somewhat apprehensive, with Asian markets showing signs of weakness ahead of the Fed's decision. OVERNIGHT SESSION FORECAST FOR NY MARKETS In the base case scenario, we anticipate that the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) will navigate between support level S1, situated between 6,840 and 6,850, and the band of 6,875 to 6,895 as traders position themselves ahead of the JOLTS report and the commencement of the Federal Reserve meeting. A retreat to S1 that holds above the approximate level of 6,835 is considered constructive, potentially setting the stage for a recovery into the upper range of Monday’s session, specifically around 6,880 to 6,895, as we transition into London trading and early New York. On the upside, should buyers successfully propel and maintain prices above 6,900 during the New York morning session, the next significant target would be resistance level R2, ranging from 6,920 to 6,945. This area is likely to attract selling activities as market participants position themselves ahead of the Fed's Wednesday decision, making sustained trading above R2 before the announcement less probable. Conversely, if S1 does not hold and we witness hourly closes below approximately 6,835, this could indicate a shift toward a more bearish outlook, paving the way for a decline towards support level S2, which lies between 6,780 and 6,805—aligning with the 4-hour higher low region. Such a breakdown would frame the next trading day as a corrective phase within the broader uptrend. Overall, the bias heading into tomorrow leans mildly bullish yet appears to be capped. We expect a two-sided trading range, with initial dips towards S1 likely attracting buying interest, while pronounced selling pressure is anticipated around the 6,890-6,905 region and more so at 6,920-6,945 as traders await further guidance from the Federal Reserve. A++ Setup 1 - Short from R1 Entry: 6,892 - 6,900 short SL: 6,912 TP1: 6,850 TP2: 6,815 - 6,820 TP3: 6,790 - 6,800 A++ Setup 2 - Long from S1 Entry: 6,842 - 6,850 long SL: 6,828 TP1: 6,882 - 6,890 TP2: 6,905 TP3: 6,920 - 6,930 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Thursday (Dec 4th)Market Outlook: Key Event and Trading Strategy Main Event: Tomorrow's primary focus will be the release of US Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET. Market participants should anticipate a significant increase in volatility during the premarket session surrounding this announcement. Notably, no other major US economic indicators of similar significance are scheduled to be released, which typically influence the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) as consistently as Jobless Claims does. Investors should consider the 8:30 AM release as the initial decision point. It is advisable to allow for the initial volatility spike to materialize before assessing market levels as they begin to normalize. The A++ trading setups detailed below are designed to activate following the 8:30 move, ideally capitalizing on opportunities that arise during the morning session in New York. Market Analysis: Current Landscape and Outlook Daily Overview: The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) has maintained an upward trajectory, approaching the swing high levels from November. Currently, the price is positioned within the upper range of recent activity, just below a significant resistance zone situated in the high 6800s to low 6900s. While daily momentum indicators remain in positive territory, they are showing elevated levels, suggesting potential for upside continuation. However, the reward for initiating new long positions in proximity to resistance appears limited at this juncture. An examination of the four-hour chart reveals a sideways trading band beneath the recent highs. Despite repeated attempts to breach the upper boundary, gains have not been sustained, though buyers continue to defend pullback levels. Below the current price, a notable demand zone exists between 6815 and 6825, with a deeper support area around 6780 to 6790. Should the 6815 level hold on a closing basis, the medium-term trend remains favorable. Today’s price activity has formed a tight range, approximately between 6857 and 6865, with the previous day’s high located near 6873 and early lows today around 6820. The market appears to be consolidating near last week’s highs, with clear liquidity zones identified both above 6873 and below 6840. For the overnight session extending into the New York trading day, the expectation is sideways-to-up as long as the price remains above 6815. This scenario suggests potential squeezes toward the 6885 to 6900 range before a more significant decision point emerges. Conversely, a decisive break and 15-minute close below the 6815 level would open the door to the 6780 to 6790 region and would likely temper the bullish outlook heading into Friday's session. A++ Setup 1 - Short from upper band 6885-6898 Entry zone: 6882-6888 short on the first clean 5m lower high after the 15m rejection. Initial stop: above 6898 (or 2-3 points above the rejection wick if that printed higher). From a mid-band entry, this is roughly 10-12 points of risk. • TP1: 6860-6863 (return to the top of today’s box and prior week high zone). • TP2: 6835-6840 (mid-band support). • Optional runner TP3: 6818-6822 if 6840 fails and selling pressure accelerates. Invalidation A decisive 15m close above 6898 that then holds on a pullback. In that case, the short idea is downgraded and price is more likely aiming for 6915-6925. A++ Setup 2 - Long from demand pocket 6815-6825 Entry zone: 6820-6826 long after the first clean 5m higher low and reclaim of 6825. Initial stop: under 6808-6810, below the rejection wick and the lower edge of the pocket. From a 6823 entry this is about 13-15 points of risk. • TP1: 6857-6860 (today’s box floor and first resistance on the way back up). • TP2: 6868-6873 (prior day high and recent NYPM highs). • Optional runner TP3: 6885-6895 if price continues squeezing toward the upper resistance band. Invalidation A 15m close beneath 6810 that is not reclaimed quickly. That opens the way toward 6780-6790 and downgrades the long. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES - December 3rd - Daily Trade PlanDecember 3rd- Daily Trade Plan - 6:10am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday we had some really good intraday levels that price continued to respect with no overnight session low that was flushed and reclaimed. You can see that we chopped around and have continued to maintain the range between 6812-6864. Let's discuss today and what we are looking for. Our overnight session low is 6837 and our high is 6857. Price has been building a very tight range over the past few sessions, and we are getting close to a breakout or breakdown that could trigger today or tomorrow. Since we are not fortune tellers, we will need to focus on identifying levels we can grab points from today. Key Levels Today 1. 6847 flush and reclaim (lower quality) 2. 6837 flush and reclaim (medium quality) 3. 6824 flush and reclaim (medium quality) 4. 6818 flush and reclaim (high quality) 5. 6812 flush and reclaim (high quality) 6. 6801 flush and reclaim (high quality) Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels 5. White shows overhead resistance/targets
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - December 2nd - Daily Trade PlanDecember 2nd- Daily Trade Plan - 6:20am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I was on vacation with my family last week and received a lot of messages asking about my daily trade plan. I have not posted since the 25th as I was travelling and enjoying time with my family. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and spent time with your families! Let's get into today! The overnight low is 6813 and overnight high is 6846. Since my last daily trade plan, we have been consolidating between 6789 - 6864. We have had some great trades around the 6800-6815 level that has been a magnet over the past sessions. We still have not made a higher high during this time. Until we clear 6854, 6864 we are technically in a range that has been bought and sold between 6813-6864. Price should continue higher and I do not expect price to lose 6779 (lowest) for us to continue higher. IF price loses 6779, we will most likely need to head lower to find levels to engage to take us higher. Until then, let's look at areas that could produce some points today. Key Levels Today 1. 6813 flush and reclaim 2. 6801 flush and reclaim 3. 6789 flush and reclaim Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 5. White Levels are previous day's session High/Low
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
4
ES - December 9th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 9th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:40am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you have been reading my daily trade plan posts this year you know that I am a long ES trader only. I do not Short ES. I find levels that Institutions are buying at, and I ride along with them. You also know if you have been trading ES for any length of time is that ES when it sells off goes elevator down. When you see 15 min red candles like yesterday and when price is not flushing and reclaiming our key levels, it is better to wait for the highest quality levels, which are previous day's lows. You know that on my chart I color code them a certain way. Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels How do Institutions accumulate? They hunt for liquidity. How? They run stops. How do we know where those stops are? They are typically near or below key lows. You can see these key lows via a 15 min candle based on the wick. I have decided to change my daily post to focus on the core levels and not all support/resistance levels. When ES is selling off and we do not get a flush and reclaim that produces a follow through on the first 2 core levels, it is better to wait for a purple or blue level to enter. Yesterday I wrote that 6857 was my highest quality level and any loss and no quick reclaim would change the structure of the trend. We pretty much flushed down to below 6857 and could never put in a reclaim that held the level by 5pts. Meaning, we did not reclaim 6857 and hold above it around 6857-6862. Example - At 10:26am - We bounced at 6858, tried to recover but could not make a higher high and fizzled out at 6869 then continued lower. You also want price to attempt to sell off back at the core level and see it hold. When price came back down it tried to hold it and bounced at 10:45am to 6862. It needed to clear 6867 to create a higher high. Every dip that bounced yesterday did not make a higher high until later in the day. I did not have 6841 called out on my plan, because I was not anticipating price to lose 6857 if it was going to keep moving higher. I did post at 11am that I would only trade the reclaim of 6857 or 6836 (both previous day's lows in the past week). While 6841 did produce a nice bounce, ultimately it never reclaimed 6857 and held. It rallied quickly into 6853 and then sold off. If price is coming up from a support into a resistance. I would only enter on the reclaim and back test of that level that holds for 5mins or so to show that it wants to keep going higher. Why did I take a position at 6836 level? Price dipped below to 6835, bounced and then came back down and retested 6836 and continued higher. This was a great R/R trade, but did I know if this was going to be the low for the day? No. I did know that price had been trying to find a low for a while yesterday and eventually sellers ran out of steam, and we started making higher highs, higher lows on the 1 min chart and that gave me confidence that price could continue higher. 6848 was a clear resistance above and that is where I sold 3/4 of my position (next level up). I hope this helps anyone that is trying to understand my system. Overnight high is 6868 and is a clear resistance and also the resistance of Friday's intraday lows. The overnight low is 6854 with a quick flush and reclaim that we got while I have been typing this post. As of right now, it has not produced any follow through. Key Levels Today 1. 6854 flush and reclaim (Lower quality) 2. 6836 flush and reclaim (Highest quality) You can try a back test of 6868, IF price can clear it and hold above. I would give it time to show that it wants to hold that level. Below 6836 and the only core levels I would look for a flush and reclaim would be 6818, 6801, 6792. Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. White shows key support/resistance levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
#ES_F Daily TF Longer Outlook UpdateBack in October we broke down Daily Outlook after we had topping signals and strong trend break. When that was posted we were looking to two possibilities after the trend was broken, we either needed to get back under Smaller MA without reaching the top to show no acceptance in New Range to then proceed with trend change and a slower correction or stay above Smaller MA to push for higher VAH/Edge areas to make this our range for some time and possibly balance between VAH/VAL with pushes out of them finding their way back in. What ended up happening is we got a push back into MA but closed over it and more buying came in to push and gap us over VAH into Range Top, of course we had no way of knowing that Range Edge would be the top but we pushed into it and showed clear topping/rejection from it. This time Edge Top rejection was much stronger and got us back under VAH/Smaller MA, flushed VAL with Medium MA which again provided Temp Support and as mentioned we got that balancing action between VAL / VAH with pushes out rotating back in until we broke/closed under Medium MA and got more selling which took us under Range Edge Low, flushed Previous Range VAH and Large MA but as that was first tag of big MA after spending quite some time away it naturally provided buying to get us back in New Range which we showed acceptance in by Previously Tagging the Top which meant once price is back in, it doesn't need much big buying as it just wants to rotate back towards Supply which so happens to be at/over VAH. Where can we go from here ? The flush under Edge Low temporarily changed Medium Trend into correction but the bounce didn't let us stay in correction and instead we go that rotation into Supply and are now technically again in Up Trend over MAs. Yes we can stay in up trend and continue with sideways/strength/inside days that will keep us up Over/Around VAH while we let Smaller/Medium MAs catch up and continue pushing us towards Edge Top and maybe even push us into New Range Above. But few things we have to consider... We are at the top of Big Big area (under new price level of 7000), We had a huge run this year, We have showed multiple Topping Patterns here around 6800 - 6900 +/- Areas, We have showed good trend breaks and attempts at trend change, We are back in area of Supply where bigger failures/sellers have came in, We are extended from Medium and Small MAs which provide support in New/Untested areas and this time we are extended away into Supply Area not New area. With all that in mind will we have strong buyers who will come in here and start buying the extension inside Supply ? Or was this extension all momentum buyers who aren't planning to hold us up. My current bias is if we look at Cost Basis break out area up to our Top, then the Flush to Large MA and back up, to me it looks like one side of a bigger M topping pattern which happens at bigger tops. If that is the case then either Friday or somewhere close we should be marking our Lower High and if buyers from Last Week will not hold this then price will want to head back towards some sort of Support which would be Smaller MA as the first spot which means back under VAH. Something to be careful of is that since now VIX is down, Volume will be down as well with holidays coming which means even if we start moving down it might be more of the same way we got up here last week which was more of Slower Balance(Back and Forth) Up days. Way down could be similar with slower balance down days. From there Smaller MA and areas under it can Provide Support and keep us in some sort of sideways action around it BUT as long as we keep holding under VAH 860s - and under Edge Top 920s then that will mean Weakness, we would look for a move under VAH that can stay under it even if it consolidates around, then into Mean where Medium MA should be by the time we get there, of course it could happen fast as well but have this feeling that it might be a drag this time around IF it happens. We already have a week of fresh Supply up here from Last Week and if we again get under Smaller MA and can again change trend under Medium MA then that will bring in more weakness to continue for lower targets back towards VAL which could also provide holds BUT if trend stays in correction and we are to follow through with the M pattern then we will eventually see a move back under Range Edge Low and aim to take out the low we made on the last Flush Nov 21st which would be the M middle which could give us more weakness to take us towards our Correction Areas lower into the Cost Basis. Again if market has topped out and all the large selling for now is done, if this is to happen then careful of forcing for it to happen quick as this can play out over a longer period of time as market may need a longer breather/correction/consolidation before it can start a new stronger trend again. If we don't end up getting a correction under Medium MAs under VAL/Edge then staying over VAL can keep price in balance with us going back and forth in 6700 - 6900s areas for some time, to not have a correction or prevent price balance and see more strength price would need to let some MAs catch up and push us over Previous High AND be able to stay above it, until then we will be looking at either more Balance or Balance with Weakness which can give us a correction.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
AI Stocks Weakness Could Spoil this Year’s Santa RallyAs December begins, traders worldwide are dusting off the same old question: Will we get a Santa Claus rally this year? But 2025’s setup looks a little different. The market’s cheer seems to depend heavily on whether AI-related stocks can keep delivering miracles—and lately, the charts are suggesting they may be running out of steam. When Tech Sneezes, the Market Catches a Cold A quick look across U.S. equity futures shows a revealing pattern. The E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures (NQ), home to most AI and semiconductor giants, has posted a significantly lower monthly low compared to the prior month. Meanwhile, the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) declined much less, hinting at relative resilience, but also possible lagging weakness. This divergence—NQ leading down while ES holds up—is a subtle warning. When the market’s growth engine (tech) loses traction, broader indices often follow with a delay. That’s the tension December traders are staring at: are we seeing the early signs of exhaustion before the holidays, or just a healthy pause? Bearish Divergences Whisper “Caution” The technicals are backing that cautious tone. On the ES chart, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has been carving lower highs even as prices printed higher highs. This is a textbook bearish divergence, often an early sign that bullish momentum is fading. The MACD histogram echoes the same message: momentum has been contracting through November despite new price highs, suggesting that underlying strength is eroding. Such divergences don’t predict direction on their own, but they do raise the probability of a short-term correction—or at least a choppy path into year-end. The Price Map: Three Levels that Could Define December Let’s outline the key technical zones traders are watching: 6,525.00: the prior monthly low—this is the first line of defense for the Santa Rally narrative. A break below this level would likely shift sentiment fast, especially if NQ continues under pressure. 6,239.50: the floor of a relevant UFO (UnFilled Orders) support zone. If ES dips below the prior low, this zone may become a “bear trap.” Many traders might short aggressively once 6,525.00 gives way, but those unfilled buy orders could absorb supply and trigger a sharp bounce. If the rally emerges from here, Santa might still make his visit. 4,430.50: a deeper UFO support cluster roughly 35% below current prices. If price were to cut through 6,239.50 and stay below it, the market would be entering a different regime altogether—likely accompanied by broken trendlines, volatility spikes, and a more defensive tone. Reading Between the Lines: What the Divergence Means Historically, the Santa Rally is powered by optimism, lighter volumes, and portfolio rebalancing. But this time, AI and semiconductor names—the champions of the current bull leg—are leading weakness. That doesn’t mean doom; it means fragility. The ES market may still rebound, but it’s doing so under reduced participation from the very sectors that drove prior gains. Sizing the Trade Without Crossing the Line For traders eyeing this setup through ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures) or MES (Micro E-mini S&P 500) futures, here’s a compliant, educational way to think about risk and position sizing: Identify the Setup Zone: e.g., around 6,525.00 as potential demand, or below 6,239.50 as short-term breakdown. Define Your Stop: the level where the technical picture is invalidated. Set a Dollar Risk Limit: for instance, risking 1% of total account equity. Derive Position Size: Divide your dollar risk by the price distance between entry and stop (converted into points). Then choose between the standard E-mini (ES) or Micro E-mini (MES) to match your risk tolerance and account size. This framework lets traders adapt leverage responsibly—without needing the specific contract specs or margin figures, which vary by broker and time. Risk Management: December Can Be a Trap December is famous for emotional trading. The combination of holiday expectations, thinner liquidity, and year-end positioning can turn routine pullbacks into exaggerated moves. That’s why focusing on risk before reward is critical. The UFO support levels serve as reference zones where institutional activity might reappear, but they’re not guarantees. Managing stops, scaling out partial profits, and staying flexible matters more than trying to guess the market’s next headline. ES and MES: Same Story, Different Scale The Micro E-mini (MES) contract is a smaller version of the E-mini (ES), designed for traders who want the same price exposure but with lower notional size. Both track the same index, tick for tick. For traders exploring this December setup, the MES allows participation while controlling exposure more granularly—especially useful if volatility picks up and margin requirements shift. Key Contracts Specs and Margins: E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) with a point value = $50 per point. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) with a point value = $5 per point. As of the current date, the margin requirements for E-mini S&P 500 Futures and for the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures are approximately $22,400 and $2,240 per contract respectively. Always verify the latest margin schedules and specifications directly with your broker or the exchange before entering trades, as those details update regularly and depend on market conditions. Santa’s Setup: Scenarios to Watch Scenario A — Santa Delivers: Price tests or slightly breaks the 6,525.00 low, finds support near 6,239.5, and rebounds into late December. Bearish divergences resolve sideways, and risk assets stabilize. Scenario B — The Grinch Arrives: The 6,239.50 zone fails to hold, breaking trendline supports. The market slides toward 4,430.50, shaking off complacent longs and erasing part of the 2024-5 rally. Both paths are technically valid. The difference will come from whether AI-heavy sectors regain strength—or confirm that this bull leg has indeed lost its engine. Educational Takeaway Divergences (CCI and MACD) highlight when momentum and price disagree—a sign of fatigue. Intermarket analysis (ES vs. NQ) reveals where weakness may originate. UFO levels identify potential institutional footprints—where traps or reversals often occur. Discipline and risk control matter more than predicting whether Santa shows up. Final Thought Whether December brings gifts or grief may depend less on seasonal hope and more on how traders interpret these divergences. If AI stocks can find footing again, the rally could revive. But if they keep sliding, this might be the year Santa takes a break. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
ES (SPX, SPY) Week-Ahead Analyses (Dec 8th - 12th)Market Analysis: Multi-Timeframe Structure Indicates Continued Bullish Sentiment, Yet Signs of Fatigue Emerge Weekly Trend Assessment The weekly trend remains robustly bullish, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows since the spring lows. The latest significant weekly higher low was established in the low 6,200s, with current price action oscillating just below the resistance zone around 6,900. This positioning indicates that price is trading at a premium against the last substantial weekly swing range (approximately 6,250 to 6,900), with a key equilibrium point at around 6,575. With prices situated nearly 300 points above this mid-range, new long positions in this area are likely paying a premium, contingent upon sustained price movement rather than favorable entry points. The current weekly candle displays a small body resting at the top of the preceding expansion bar, a classic sign of balance at the top of an ongoing trend rather than a definitive reversal. Daily Trend and Range Overview The daily structure also points towards bullish momentum: since the November lows near the low 6,300s, prices have generated higher highs and higher lows, currently thriving within the strong resistance band of 6,850 to 6,900. Recent trading sessions have produced a tight range below this recent peak, with support forming around 6,840-6,860 and resistance capping at 6,890-6,905. Until there is a decisive move above the 6,905-6,920 range or a daily close beneath 6,840, the market remains in a sideways consolidation pattern at the pinnacle of this uptrend. 4-Hour Structure Insight The 4-hour chart reflects a sharp upward leg originating from approximately 6,780, reaching into the 6,900 territory, followed by overlapping candles and shallow retracements. This price action suggests that the preceding move was impulsive, and present conditions may represent a pause rather than a full reversal. The latest significant 4-hour swing demonstrates a higher high around 6,900-6,905 followed by a higher low at 6,870, with current prices positioned in the upper half of this micro-range. Momentum within the 4-hour timeframe appears to be waning: candles are producing smaller bodies, with wicks protruding in both directions, coupled with diminished trading volume. This behavior often precedes either a marginal high or a retreat towards the earlier price base. 1-Hour Contextual Analysis On the 1-hour chart, the market is currently trapped between a short-term support floor around 6,870-6,875 and a resistance cap in the 6,895-6,905 range. Overnight trading has developed within this mid-range, setting the stage for today's session. As traders enter the New York trading hours, a critical factor will be whether the market can decisively break and maintain levels above 6,905, or if that resistance will invite profit-taking and selling pressure. Momentum Indicators: Weekly and Daily Perspectives The weekly oscillator has retraced from prior overbought extremes and is now gradually ascending from a neutral zone - a constructive medium-term indicator. Although the trend remains upward, the substantial momentum surge may have already occurred. The daily oscillator presents an elevated stance, yet it is not at a new extreme and is beginning to form slightly lower highs while prices concurrently touch or slightly exceed previous highs. This presents a mild bearish divergence: the overarching trend is up, but each successive high lacks the same vigor as its predecessors. In summary, while the structural analysis continues to favor a bullish outlook, momentum indicators signal a potential slowdown in the pace of price increases. The current scenario depicts an uptrend approaching resistance, exhibiting signs of fatigue but not yet forming a definitive topping pattern. Traders should remain vigilant in this environment as they navigate the interplay of momentum and price action going forward. Key levels and zones Resistance bands (R1–R3) R1: 6,890-6,905 This is the immediate ceiling: recent intraday highs, prior NY session high, and the upper edge of the current 1H balance. It also aligns with short-term extension targets from the last 4H leg. A lot of short-term stops will sit just above it. Expect the first NY push into this pocket to attract profit-taking from longs and counter-trend scouts. R2: 6,920-6,945 This band lines up with 4H and daily Fibonacci extension confluence around the 1.272-1.618 projections from the November swing. It sits inside the broader weekly supply shelf and represents the first real “air pocket” above the current range. A clean 4H close above this pocket would be the first sign that the market wants a genuine markup phase toward 7,000 rather than yet another rejection. R3: 6,980-7,020 This is the top of the multi-month weekly supply zone and the psychological 7,000 handle. It is labeled as a weak high area on higher timeframes: structurally important because a decisive break and hold above here would confirm a fresh weekly expansion leg, while another rejection would likely start a meaningful corrective phase. Expect heavy optionality and hedging around 7,000, which can create whippy spikes when it is first tested. Support bands (S1–S4) S1: 6,840-6,860 Nearest intraday demand shelf: recent 1H lows, repeated responsive buying, and an area where volume has accumulated. As long as NY closes keep holding above this band, the current congestion can be framed as a high-level pause, not a breakdown. First test in NY AM is a candidate for a tactical bounce; repeated tests with weaker response increase the odds of a deeper flush. S2: 6,780-6,805 This is the prior 4H base from which the latest push to 6,900 launched, and it aligns with a daily demand pocket and prior breakout area. A 4H close back into and through this band would mean the most recent breakout has fully retraced. That is where swing buyers from the last leg begin to feel pain. This is also near the top of a thicker volume shelf; structurally a very attractive support for A++ bounces if reached with a fast, emotional flush. S3: 6,720-6,750 Deeper daily demand and the heart of the last congestion zone. Likely coincides with short-term moving averages and prior multi-day highs from the earlier leg. If we are in a simple pullback within an ongoing weekly uptrend, this band should hold on a closing basis. A stop-run into S3 that quickly reclaims S2 is classic “flush and spring” behavior. S4: 6,600-6,640 Major weekly demand shelf and the zone where the prior correction bottomed before the recent leg higher. A trip back here would represent a full retrace of the latest breakout and a genuine test of the weekly trend. If this zone were to fail on a weekly close, you would be talking about trend damage rather than a routine shakeout. One Decisive Pivot The S&P futures are currently operating at a crucial make-or-break level between 6,780 and 6,800. This threshold acts as the dividing line between what could be characterized as an “orderly pullback within an ongoing trend” versus a “failed breakout.” Should the S&P maintain its position above 6,780 on both a 4-hour and daily closing basis, it will likely signal a high-level consolidation phase, potentially setting up for a breakout. Conversely, if the index witnesses a sustained decline below this pivot, particularly in conjunction with a rise in volatility, we could anticipate a deeper correction targeting key support levels S3 and possibly S4 in the coming weeks. Volatility Environment The VIX is sitting comfortably in the mid-teens, reflecting relative tranquility in the options market despite the index hovering just below all-time highs. The upward-sloping term structure of implied volatility indicates that the market anticipates modest near-term fluctuations while demanding a premium for longer-dated protection-classic contango behavior. This suggests an expectation for calm leading up to the upcoming central bank decision, with an inherent potential for volatility spikes should the Fed’s declaration differ from expectations. Options Positioning and Skew Dynamics A look at the equity-only put/call ratio, which currently stands at approximately 0.43 - significantly below the 20-day average of 0.60 - signals a robust call market and a degree of optimism prevailing within single-stock and broad equity options. Meanwhile, an uptick in demand for index puts persists, as evidenced by the index put/call ratio at around 1.07 and the SPX-specific ratio at approximately 1.13. This trend implies institutional preferences for hedging mechanisms even as spot indices flirt with historic highs. Furthermore, the SKEW index, around 149, remains considerably elevated compared to its long-term average, indicating that out-of-the-money downside insurance is costly relative to at-the-money options. This reflects ongoing concerns regarding tail risks in the current subdued market environment. Overall, this paints a picture of a classic "call-happy, hedged-underneath" setup: the speculative fervor on the surface is balanced by institutional strategies focusing on downside protection. It's reasonable to infer that dealers are modestly long gamma at these index levels, which typically supports mean reversion around significant strike prices, such as 6,900, leading up to the Fed meeting - though these assumptions should be approached with caution. Market Breadth and Internals As we assess the broader market landscape, major indices concluded the previous week with modest gains, remaining within 1% of their all-time highs. Day-to-day breadth trends have exhibited a mixed demeanor; recent indicators show approximately 45% of stocks advancing while around 52% declined in one of the sessions, which leans towards a mildly negative sentiment, aligning with typical “fade at the highs” behavior rather than outright selling pressure. Technology and growth sectors have continued to lead the market, while defensive plays, particularly utilities, have trailed - a development consistent with a risk-on market sentiment as opposed to classic late-cycle caution. Collectively, these internal metrics do not appear to confirm a market top but rather suggest a consolidation phase characterized by rotation at elevated price levels. Credit and Funding Landscape High-yield credit remains resilient, with HYG trading around 80.7 and JNK near 97.3, both positioned well within a narrow range proximal to their recent highs without signs of sudden outflows. The stability observed in high-yield ETFs indicates that credit spreads remain largely intact, contributing to overall orderly funding conditions without evident stress signals to undermine equity strength. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning Analysis The latest AAII survey reveals about 44.3% of respondents are bullish, 24.9% neutral, and 30.8% bearish, positioning the bull-bear spread at approximately +13.5 percentage points - well above the long-term average and indicative of rising optimism. When coupled with the low equity put/call ratio, this sentiment reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook that could risk complacency; however, it does not yet indicate a level of extreme sentiment typically preceding major market tops. In summary, sentiment appears to support continued upward movement but carries an enhanced risk that any adverse macroeconomic developments could prompt a swift and pronounced market correction as overly crowded long positions seek exits. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone On the global stage, equity indices remain largely firm. The S&P 500 is experiencing a year-to-date increase of approximately 17% and is just shy of its record high. European indices like the DAX are also nearing their peaks, while Asian markets reflect mixed signals without evident distress. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market is displaying a risk-on attitude, with Bitcoin trading above $91,000 and Ethereum above $3,000 - both of which have risen recently ahead of the Fed meeting. As we move forward, the interplay of these factors will be pivotal in shaping market expectations and movements in the wake of key policy announcements. Macro and Data Calendar Context This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's meeting and rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Futures markets currently reflect a strong expectation for a 25-basis-point cut from the existing range of 3.75-4.0 percent. However, internal divisions within the Fed indicate that this meeting could be one of the most contentious in recent memory. Market participants will also closely scrutinize updated projections and the tone during the press conference for insights into the anticipated rate trajectory through 2026. On the data front, traders can expect delayed JOLTS figures and employment cost data. However, no significant inflation metrics are on the immediate agenda to influence the Fed's decision. As for the week’s trading landscape, the narrative is quite clear: today and tomorrow are likely to involve positioning and range-trading at elevated levels, with Wednesday’s rate decision and subsequent press conference acting as critical catalysts that could break the current trading range of 6,850-6,900. Scenario Mapping and Odds Forecasting the market trajectory involves qualitative assessments rather than precise calculations, but the analysis reflects the prevailing structure, sentiment, and macroeconomic environment. Primary Path (Approximately 55% Probability) We expect a period of consolidation with a slight positive bias. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is anticipated to fluctuate between support (S1 at 6,840-6,860) and resistance (R2 at 6,920-6,945) leading up to the Fed meeting. We may witness multiple attempts to test the 6,890-6,905 ceiling, leading to sharp but controlled pullbacks. Market breadth appears mixed but stable, with the VIX remaining in the mid-teens and high-yield credit markets demonstrating resilience. A decisive directional breakout is likely to occur post-Fed - either a bullish push through R2 toward the 7,000 mark if the rate cut and guidance are deemed supportive or a bearish reaction if the Fed's tone leans hawkish. Bear-Extension Path (Around 25% Probability) This scenario suggests a failed breakout resulting in a deeper correction. Should the ES spike toward R1/R2 but decisively falter, a breakdown below S1 with a four-hour close under approximately 6,840 - either before or immediately after a hawkish Fed surprise - could trigger accelerated declines toward S2 (6,780-6,805) and potentially S3 (6,720-6,750). In this case, we would likely see the VIX rising above 20, deteriorating market breadth, and softness in high-yield indices (HYG/JNK). If these indicators remain stable, the likelihood of this path diminishes. Confirmation Triggers: A four-hour close beneath 6,840, coupled with a spike in volatility and weakening credit conditions, will signal that this bearish scenario is gaining traction. Bull-Surprise Path (Approximately 20% Probability) In this scenario, a clean breakout could initiate a year-end rally. The ES would break through R1, consolidate briefly, and then surge past R2, ideally closing above 6,945, thereby converting the 6,900 level into support. A dovish Fed decision paired with guidance perceived as growth-supportive - without reigniting inflation concerns - could easily lift prices into the R3 band (6,980-7,020) this week. Under this outcome, we would expect lowered VIX levels, a broadening of sector leadership beyond just mega-cap technology stocks, and a potential euphoric sentiment among investors. Confirmation Triggers: Sustained trading above 6,945, with S1 holding as support on any pullbacks, would confirm the validity of this bullish scenario. Order-Flow and Micro-Structure Analysis: Key Levels for Today's New York Session In today's intraday trading environment, particularly within the New York session, attention will be focused on critical resistance and support levels. Resistance Levels (R1 and R2): - At R1 (6,895-6,905), traders should monitor for late buyers entering the market. If this occurs without a corresponding increase in volume and 1m-5m candles start to show upper wicks, it may indicate potential weakness. A shift in Delta from strongly positive to neutral or negative during this price action would support a bearish outlook. - Should the price advance to R2 (6,920-6,945), the essential factor will be whether it can sustain above this level on 15-minute closes. A clean acceptance accompanied by tight consolidations in the shorter time frames would suggest a bullish continuation. Conversely, if spikes and sharp rejections are noted, this could favor a fade in prices. Support Levels (S1 and S2): - At S1 and particularly at S2, the long thesis strengthens if there is a notable expansion in volume during a flush, followed by a marked slowdown and stable buying activity. A pattern of 1m-5m candles producing higher lows, while still operating within the support zone, would further bolster the long case. In instances where the micro-structure fails to align with the broader market narrative at these pivotal levels, the prudent approach may be to refrain from trading until the market clarifies its direction in relation to impending Fed announcements. Market Forecast for Today's NY Session: - For today, the baseline expectation is for the ES to continue fluctuating within the 6,840-6,905 range, with an early attempt to breach overnight highs into the 6,895-6,905 zone. If this upward movement struggles, particularly with weak market breadth and the Nasdaq lagging, a pullback towards the 6,865-6,875 mid-range is anticipated, potentially extending down to S1 at 6,840-6,860, where we can expect responsive buyers to re-enter. - A decisive break and sustained hold above the 6,905-6,920 level ahead of Fed statements would signal market anticipation of a dovish outcome, possibly triggering an earlier test of R2. On the downside, a breach below 6,840 on a 4-hour closing basis would suggest a shift toward a bearish continuation leading into the event. Traders should focus on two A++ setups as primary strategies: consider fading any exhausted rallies approaching 6,900 and prepare to enter long positions on a genuine flush down to the 6,780-6,805 support area if the opportunity arises. A++ Setup 1 - Short from upper shelf (R1) Enter: Short ES in the 6,895-6,905 zone once you see a 5-15m rejection candle and a 1m-5m lower high back inside 6,900. SL: 6,918-6,922, above the rejection wick and inside R2. TP1: 6,860, at the top of the S1 shelf (take about 70% off and move stop to breakeven or slightly in the green). TP2: 6,810-6,800, targeting the top of S2 if momentum extends. Notes: Treat this as a high-probability fade of stretched prices into event risk; if you get a clean 4H close above ~6,920, the idea is invalid and you stand aside. A++ Setup 2 - Long from 4H base (S2) Enter: Long ES in the 6,780-6,805 zone after a fast flush into S2, a 15m candle that sweeps below and closes back above ~6,790, and then a 5m higher low above that reclaim. SL: 6,770-6,775, below the reaction low and under the S2 pocket. TP1: 6,860-6,870, back toward the S1/mid-range band (scale about 70% and move stop to breakeven or slightly positive). TP2: 6,920-6,945, targeting the R2 band if the bounce evolves into a full reclaim of the upper range. Notes: This is your preferred “flush-and-spring” play; a 4H close below ~6,780 invalidates the bounce thesis from S2 and shifts focus to lower bands.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex