ID: 2025 - 0095.5.2025
Trade #9 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 137 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
OF NOTE: This trade opened at EXCELLENT fills, and there is zero risk to the upside. The danger is of a catastrophic move to the downside, which will bring in phenomenal gains for ID 006 and 008. 😊
Happy Trading!
-kevin
ES2! trade ideas
Bearish scalping S&P500S&P500 ideas:
Overnight bearish (0.3% drop after the daily open vs. 0.1% rise)
On Friday, upward gaps tend to close more than on other days.
Gaps of up to 0.2% tend to close at 87% within the same day.
0.2% will be there around 8:30.
Opening around there and rising, a good selling area is at 25% adr, which matches yesterday's negative delta.
A possible sell-off with context if it shows that sellers are still there.
Potential neutral zone tradeThe daily structure in the S&P 500 implied the potential of a neutral zone trade. This indicates that both buyers and sellers are present and a sideways movement in this market. To determine if this neutral zone environment will hold Friday's close will be very important.
ES - September 18th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 18th - 5:30am
Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first!
(You can see my post in the related publication section)
I wrote yesterday ...
"My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6659, 6653, 6648-50, 6643. The white trend line (6648-50) will continue to be a magnet on any pullback. "
"Our overnight session low is 6653 with high at 6674. IF, we can clear 6674, we should continue higher. I think we will get another pullback, Ideally, to flush the 6653 level and reclaim or even better a deeper scary flush below 6643 and reclaim, then head higher up the levels."
Let's review because we pretty much followed the plan to detail!
6660-6662 became a clear support area but each test and rally could not get higher than 6674.Then around 12pm we lost the support and slowly grinded down to the 6653 area and white trendline.
On my 12:20pm Note I stated "The Fed meeting today could produce any reaction +/- 100pts. I could see us drop below the 6637 level, flush, reclaim and rally to back test the 6660 level. To be bullish, we need to see price reclaim 6684 to continue higher."
What happened after FOMC? We rallied to 6686, dropped to 6628, rallied and flushed again to 6610 then reclaimed the 6634 area and then we rallied and closed at 6661. I stated that the reclaim of 6684 would be bullish.
What happened in the overnight session? We took off and tested 6682, pulled back, rallied to 6692, pulled back and back tested the 6682 level which we have now rallied into some key targets for the week at 6700,6709, 6714, 6720.
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Everyone that has been following my trade plans know that I am a long only ES trader. That means, I patiently wait for pullbacks into Institutional zones and ride with them higher.
Since we are now coming into our overnight session high at 6720, there is not much I can do but wait for a pull back. Let's discuss what areas we can expect a pullback and continuation higher.
Our overnight session low is 6663 with high at 6720. We do not have a ton of structure to work with at this time. We are at all-time highs, market sentiment was already bullish/greedy, and CNBC and all the talking heads will be waking up excited and bullish. Retail traders will be jumping in and chasing with FOMO today and tomorrow.
The first obvious area is the 6696-6700. We should pull back to this area and test it. Any pullback down to no lower than 6682 can build a base, reclaim a level higher and continue up. IF, we lose 6682 it will be a warning sign that this is a massive parabolic move and won't be sustainable. Remember, we have tested the white trendline 3x and closed back above it. It continues to be a bigger term support, but when we close inside it, we will most likely be in the midst of a change of character and a new bear trend could emerge. We have been in a bull market since April, and it has been a great 6 month run. Until this change occurs, we must remain bullish with possible targets higher of 6733, 6750, 6776, 6796, 6809, 6814.
Key Support Levels - 6643, 6649-50 (white trendline), 6663, 6682, 6692, 6696, 6700, 6709
Key Resistance Levels - 6719, 6733, 6750
Upside targets above are 6733, 6750, 6776, 6796, 6809, 6814.
Recap for today's key areas - We need a pull back with some structure to one of the levels, ideally at either 6696-6700, 6692, 6682. We could also build a flag down to 6705-09 and then reclaim 6714, and head to 6733. IF, we go lower than 6682, I would get out the way and wait for a reclaim of 6684. Below 6663 and we will most likely flush below the white trendline and go test the low of 6610 from yesterday.
DO NOT CHASE today! Institutions will pull the rug when they are ready and with this parabolic move overnight, anything can happen today/tomorrow. Follow the plan.
I will post an update around 10am.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
The Domino EffectHow a Crisis in One Country Shakes Global Markets
Part 1: The Nature of Interconnected Global Markets
1.1 Globalization and Economic Interdependence
In earlier centuries, economies were relatively insulated. A banking collapse in one country might not ripple across the world. Today, however, globalization has created a tightly linked system. Goods made in China are consumed in Europe; oil produced in the Middle East powers factories in India; financial instruments traded in New York impact investors in Africa.
Trade linkages: A slowdown in one economy reduces demand for imports, hurting its trading partners.
Financial integration: Global banks and investors allocate capital worldwide. A collapse in one asset class often leads to capital flight elsewhere.
Supply chains: Modern production is fragmented globally. A crisis in one key hub can paralyze industries across continents.
1.2 Channels of Transmission
Economic shocks can travel across borders in several ways:
Financial contagion: Stock market crashes, banking failures, and currency collapses spread panic.
Trade disruptions: Falling demand in one country hurts exporters elsewhere.
Currency spillovers: Devaluation in one country pressures others to follow, creating competitive depreciation.
Investor psychology: Fear spreads faster than facts. When confidence erodes, investors often withdraw from risky markets en masse.
Part 2: Historical Case Studies of the Domino Effect
2.1 The Great Depression (1929–1930s)
The Wall Street Crash of 1929 began in the United States but soon plunged the entire world into depression. As U.S. banks collapsed and demand fell, countries that relied on exports to America suffered. International trade contracted by two-thirds, leading to widespread unemployment and social unrest worldwide.
2.2 The Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998)
What began as a currency crisis in Thailand quickly spread across East Asia. Investors lost confidence, pulling money from Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia. Stock markets collapsed, currencies depreciated, and IMF bailouts followed. The crisis revealed how tightly emerging economies were linked through speculative capital flows.
2.3 The Global Financial Crisis (2008)
The U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Lehman Brothers’ collapse led to a global credit freeze. Banks in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere faced severe liquidity shortages. International trade shrank by nearly 12% in 2009, and stock markets around the world lost trillions in value. This crisis highlighted how financial products like mortgage-backed securities tied together banks worldwide.
2.4 The Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010–2012)
Greece’s debt problems quickly spread fears of contagion across Europe. Investors worried that Portugal, Spain, and Italy could face similar defaults. Bond yields soared, threatening the stability of the euro. The European Central Bank and IMF intervened, but not before global investors felt the tremors.
2.5 COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
The pandemic began as a health crisis in Wuhan, China, but within weeks it disrupted the global economy. Supply chains broke down, trade collapsed, tourism stopped, and financial markets plunged. Lockdowns across the world triggered the sharpest economic contraction in decades, proving that non-economic crises can also trigger financial domino effects.
Part 3: Mechanisms of Global Transmission
3.1 Financial Markets as Shock Carriers
Capital is mobile. When investors fear losses in one country, they often pull funds from other markets too—especially emerging economies seen as risky. This creates a contagion effect, where unrelated economies suffer simply because they are perceived as similar.
3.2 Trade Dependency
Countries dependent on exports are especially vulnerable. For example, Germany’s reliance on exports to Southern Europe meant that the Eurozone debt crisis hit German factories hard. Similarly, China’s export slowdown during COVID-19 hurt suppliers in Southeast Asia.
3.3 Currency and Exchange Rate Volatility
When a major economy devalues its currency, trading partners may respond with devaluations of their own. This “currency war” creates global instability. During the Asian crisis, once Thailand devalued the baht, other Asian nations followed suit, intensifying the crisis.
3.4 Psychological & Behavioral Factors
Markets are not purely rational. Fear and panic amplify contagion. A crisis often leads to herding behavior, where investors sell assets simply because others are selling. This causes overshooting—currencies collapse more than fundamentals justify, worsening the crisis.
Part 4: The Role of Institutions in Crisis Management
4.1 International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The IMF often steps in to stabilize economies through emergency loans, as seen in Asia (1997) and Greece (2010). However, IMF policies sometimes attract criticism for imposing austerity, which can deepen recessions.
4.2 Central Banks and Coordination
During 2008, central banks across the world—like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan—coordinated interest rate cuts and liquidity injections. This collective action helped restore confidence.
4.3 G20 and Global Governance
The G20 emerged as a key crisis-management forum after 2008. By bringing together major economies, it coordinated stimulus measures and financial reforms. However, the effectiveness of such cooperation often depends on political will.
Part 5: Why Crises Spread Faster Today
Technology and speed: Information flows instantly through news and social media, fueling panic selling.
Complex financial instruments: Derivatives, swaps, and securitized assets tie banks and funds across borders.
Globalized supply chains: A factory shutdown in one country can halt production worldwide.
Dependence on capital flows: Emerging economies rely heavily on foreign investment, making them vulnerable to sudden outflows.
Part 6: Lessons and Strategies for Resilience
6.1 For Governments
Diversify economies to avoid overdependence on one sector or market.
Maintain healthy fiscal reserves to cushion shocks.
Strengthen banking regulations to reduce financial vulnerabilities.
6.2 For Investors
Recognize that diversification across countries may not always protect against global contagion.
Monitor global risk indicators, not just local markets.
Use hedging strategies to reduce currency and credit risks.
6.3 For International Institutions
Improve early-warning systems to detect vulnerabilities.
Promote coordinated responses to crises.
Reform global financial rules to prevent excessive risk-taking.
Part 7: The Future of Global Crisis Contagion
The next global crisis could emerge from many sources:
Climate change disruptions (floods, droughts, migration pressures).
Geopolitical conflicts (trade wars, regional wars, sanctions).
Technological disruptions (cyberattacks on financial systems).
Debt bubbles in emerging economies.
Given the growing complexity of global interdependence, crises will likely spread even faster in the future. The challenge is not to prevent shocks entirely—since they are inevitable—but to design systems that are resilient enough to absorb them without collapsing.
Conclusion
The domino effect in global markets is both a risk and a reminder of shared destiny. A crisis in one country can no longer be dismissed as “their problem.” Whether it is a banking failure in New York, a currency collapse in Bangkok, or a health crisis in Wuhan, the shockwaves ripple outward, reshaping the economic landscape for everyone.
Globalization has made economies interdependent, but also inter-vulnerable. The lessons from past crises show that cooperation, resilience, and adaptability are crucial. The domino effect may never disappear, but its destructive impact can be mitigated if nations, institutions, and investors act with foresight.
The world economy, like a row of dominoes, is only as strong as its weakest piece. Protecting that weakest link is the surest way to prevent the fall of all.
Day 32 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$2,171 FOMC ReversalDay 32 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books!
The day started rough — I went long off an X7 buy signal at the 1-min MOB, got greedy, and ended up down -180 early. Instead of forcing it, I stepped away. By the afternoon, I was mapping out key levels ahead of FOMC.
That prep paid off. My orders for the “pop and drop” scenarios lined up perfectly with the signals. I made back my losses and finished +$2,171. Discipline + structure = consistency.
📰 News Highlights
Fed projections show 9 of 19 officials see two more cuts in 2025
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6670 = Flip Bullish
Below 6640 = Flip Bearish
S&P 500 2030 ForecastFor the S&P 500 I think its fair to put the 2030 projection between two bounds. 8900 lackluster and 12800 outperformance. If it maintains its trajectory some where in the middle it could hit 10,000 by 2029. Its probably better to put a bit more conservative forecast to account for uncertainties.
2030 forecast S&P 10,000
#SnP500
#marketprojection
ES - September 17th - FOMC - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 17th - 6am
I stated yesterday in our daily trade plan -
"My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6681-83, 6671, 6643. The white trend line will continue to be a magnet on any pullback, but when we start to really sell off, price can slice through lots of levels below. That is why it is important to be patient and wait for price to build a good base and institutions to start accumulating again."
We pulled back to 6682 then spiked to 6687 then lost the level after the open. We then flushed the overnight low of 6671, spiked, but could not hold anything higher 6675. We finally then hit the Monday afternoon low of 6663 with a very quick flush down to 6661.25. I was actually able to ride this move up to 6673 as my stop was at 6660 (not 6662) when I wrote my note yesterday at 11:07am. I also stated the "reclaim of 6671 should keep us moving higher". 6671 became a magnet yesterday and the highest we got was 6676.
In my 3:35pm Note - "Today we got a nice pullback, and I was able to grab 10pts with a very tight stop. The 6671 level became a magnet this afternoon and then we lost it after 3:15pm. Price should still retest the 6682 level in the overnight session. IF, we lose the 6662 daily low, we will need to work down the levels with 6643 being a good spot for points. I do not think we will lose the 6662 low overnight and will most likely head higher to retest 6682 then continue up the levels if we can hold overhead resistance."
What happened overnight? We still haven't cleared 6676 and finally lost the 6661 level after testing 2x with a nice flush down to 6653 and then reclaim of 6657. You can look at the 1 min chart around 4:30am and see that we flushed down to 6656, then back tested 6661, came back down to make a low at 6653 and you can enter on any reclaim of 6656. Of course, this was a great level reclaim that I was not yet awake for 🤷♂️. The good news, we should get another great setup at some point today.
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Today's action is pretty simple, to be honest.
Our overnight session low is 6653 with high at 6674. IF, we can clear 6674, we should continue higher. I think we will get another pullback, Ideally, to flush the 6653 level and reclaim or even better a deeper scary flush below 6643 and reclaim, then head higher up the levels.
Key Support Levels - 6643, 6649-50 (white trendline) 6653, 6659, 6663
Key Resistance Levels - 6674, 6682, 6686, 6692, 6697
Upside targets above are 6700, 6709, 6724, 6732 (IF, Bulls really want it)
My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6659, 6653, 6648-50, 6643. The white trend line (6648-50) will continue to be a magnet on any pullback. Size down today and be patient. We have the FOMC at 2pm and I will only be taking trades that present themselves until around 12pm. I will be off my desk the rest of the day. I will send out a note around 10am after the NYSE open has settled.
ES (SPX) Analyses for Wed, Sep 17 - FOMC - Key ZonesBias:
The weekly and daily trends are staying positive, with higher highs and higher lows. We're in an uptrend, but right now, we're hitting some resistance instead of pushing into new territory.
Price-wise, we’re stuck in a range between two key levels: there’s some overhead resistance at 6678–6683 (that's the top of yesterday’s range and where things first started to react) and 6703 (which is a key point to watch). On the flip side, the lower support level is at 6653–6658 (this was the high from last week, and often when we retest it, it leads to buying).
Here’s what it all means: If we can stay above 6653–6658 and get rejected around 6678–6683, it might be a good idea to take some short positions back down to that support level. If we do manage to reclaim the lower support after a dip or if we break above 6703, we could continue upward to around 6720–6724, then maybe 6744–6750, and even 6760–6765.
If the bias shifts, like if we see price acceptance below 6653, that could signal a sell-off targeting 6643, then 6627, and possibly down to 6611–6618. On the other hand, if we see acceptance above 6703, it could bring back some long momentum.
Setups (Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m)
LONG — Sweep & Reclaim at 6653–6658 (LIS)
Idea: Liquidity grab into LIS, then buyers step back in.
15m trigger: Wick through 6653–6658 that closes back ≥ 6658.
5m confirm: Re-close up through 6664–6666 with a higher low.
1m entry: First HL pullback that holds 6659–6662.
Hard SL: Below the 15m sweep wick ±0.25–0.50.
• Targets: TP1 6678–6683, TP2 6703, TP3 6720–6724 (leave runner for 6744–6750).
SHORT — Rejection Fade at 6678–6683 (overhead)
Idea: First test into the box top fails; sell the rally back inside.
15m trigger: Probe 6678–6683 that closes back ≤ 6675.
5m confirm: Lower high + re-close down through 6672–6674.
1m entry: First LH retest 6679–6682 that fails.
Hard SL: Above the 15m rejection wick ±0.25–0.50.
• Targets: TP1 6666–6668, TP2 6653–6658, TP3 6638–6643.
• Skip if TP1 < 2.0R versus your wick stop.
We might see some compression before the FOMC meeting, especially in the early afternoon. It’s probably best to just react to any trades at the edges. The real action usually kicks off between 2:00 and 2:35 pm when the statement comes out and the Q&A starts.
In the morning, there’ll be some mixed signals with housing data at 8:30, EIA at 10:30, and the VIX settling, which could cause some quick, random spikes. Just treat those as noise unless they really break through your levels.
And don’t forget, the flows leading into Friday’s OPEX can really amp up the swings after the FOMC. The gamma profile tends to reset after the press conference too.
Ready to respondThe S&P 500 daily chart structure implies a market that's ready to respond to fundamental data that will be revealed this week starting with Wednesday. The bias is still firm moved to the upside. However, if the market expectation is not met with interest rates this market could easily break to the downside.
Day 31 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$24 Near Breakeven“I actually started the day rough — down nearly -400 overnight after an oversized short on that early X7 sell signal. That put me close to my stop-loss limit, so I forced myself to wait for 2–3 confirmations before entering again.
By slowing down and focusing only on high-probability trades, I was able to grind my way back to nearly breakeven — closing the day at just -24.
The key lesson? Overleveraging at night cost me what could have been an easy green day. Discipline around size is just as important as reading the signals.”
News Context:
“On the macro side, Bessent said a 25 basis-point cut is already priced in. No surprises there, but it reinforces why the market isn’t reacting much to Fed talk at this point.”
Key Levels for Tomorrow:
“Here’s what I’ll be watching:
Above 6660 = Stay bullish
Below 6645 = Flip bearish
ES - September 16th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 16th - 5:50am
Please note that we are now using the December contracts (ESZ2025). All levels will now be focused on December, not on September (ESU2025). Yesterday & Weekly Trade Plan looks weird due to the rollover on prices. All of these levels have been updated to reflect the new contract and should align with your trading view ES1 or ESZ2025 charts.
I am not going to dive into yesterday, since the contract rolled over and the trading plan of when I posted has switched and everything is out of sync, but we will not have that issue moving forward until December. This will happen 4x a year, 1x each quarter.
What is our game plan for today? If you have been following me for the past couple of months you will know that I am looking for pullbacks that institutions are manipulating to flush key levels, run stops, then get long. Guess what we have lacked the past 3-4 sessions? Not many pullbacks. Our last good pull back was Wednesday 10th at 3:15pm. This can be frustrating but as a professional trader, I have to take what my edge gives me, and I am always hunting for the highest quality setups. I can go without trading for a day or a week, IF, my edge does not present itself. We have had some low-quality trades that I have gotten some 5pt-8pt trades, but not my typical edge. So why is this happening? Well, Institutions are distributing and not accumulating. Retail traders are chasing in, and we have been going parabolic as FOMO has taken over. The VIX has quietly risen to over 18 and yesterday we had a green day with a green VIX. This Tell's me that Institutions are starting to add Insurance to the upcoming FOMC meeting and the VIX should continue to rise heading into tomorrow's 2pm FOMC meeting.
Let's talk about what levels we can grab some points at today.
Our overnight session low is 6671 with high at 6697. At this point, I cannot chase, and we will get a big sell off at some point this week. When we do, you must let price build a base at a core level below, before just blindly entering at a level.
Key Support Levels - 6692, 6681-83, 6671, 6663, 6657, 6650, 6643
Key Resistance Levels - 6697, 6700, 6709+
Upside targets above are 6700, 6709, 6732 (IF, Bulls really want it)
My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6681-83, 6671, 6643. The white trend line will continue to be a magnet on any pullback, but when we start to really sell off, price can slice through lots of levels below. That is why it is important to be patient and wait for price to build a good base and institutions to start accumulating again.
I will post an update around 10am.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
ES (SPX) - Analyses - Key zones - Trade Setups for Tue, Sep 16Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate).
Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed)
So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then):
First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top.
Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart.
As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long.
Setups:
Long — Dip Buy (primary)
• Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next).
• Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2).
Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET)
• Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures).
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15.
• NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00.
• Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30.
• Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline).
• FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed.
• Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week).
Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary)
• Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722.
• Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808.
Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only)
• Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged).
• Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell.
• SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
Day 30 — Trading Only S&P Futures | One-Month MarkDay 30 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books!
I started the day a little rough, down -100 from an overnight trade, but patience paid off. Watching NQ DD buy signals kept me from forcing shorts early, and SPX gamma levels showed 6620 as the top. Once we hit it, I shorted and played the range for steady gains, finishing with a clean MOB bounce for +196.94.
Big milestone here — 30 straight days of trading only the S&P Futures. The consistency is starting to show, and the lessons are stacking up fast.
📰 News Highlights
VIX jumped 6% while the market gained 0.5% — an odd divergence worth watching.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow=
Above 6645 = Remain Bullish
Below 6635 = Flip Bearish
100 to 1,000,000Proverbs 3:5-6 trust in the lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding. acknowledge him in all your ways and he will make your ways straight.
This is the begining of a series, where I Gideon Stoker a follower of Christ will be turning 100$ or in this case 94$ into 1,000,000.
Cooking a rotation Large frame ranges for 2025 / 2026 -- all targets upside tapped on previous chart and current price inside 12M sell box - with esz already beyond @ 6681.
NFP revision showed employment weaker than data implied and CPI Beat 5 year expectations showing inflation not done.
Consumer sentiment showing pessimism on jobs and prices.
Market front running rate cut "relief" pricing in 3 cuts and pushing es to 4 consecutive days of new ATHs.
3d s1 @ 6621
1d macro s1 @ 6624 s2 @ 6546
Both pending bearish rotation
on esz downside rotation confirms at sustain below 6656
on esu below 8h s1 @ 6606
as of 15 Sept 11:27 ET
esu5 vol @ 861.6k
esz5 vol @ 963.1k
vol has shifted to esz5, current high @ 6681.25
price already inside 3d sell box.
1M sell begins @ 6685
n200 @ 6036
Buy boxes noted on chart, including 12M buy for 2026 and major sup levels @ 5450 and 5037
Rotation is a feature not a flaw.
2025 at roughly 140.9% of range; never be the last one out.
Appreciate the risk.