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ES (SPX, SPY) Deep Analyses for Upcoming Week (Dec 1st - 5th)Multi-Timeframe Market Structure Analysis Weekly Trend Overview The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) continues to reflect a robust bullish trend on the weekly chart, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The most recent swing low is situated in the mid-6,500s, while prices are currently testing the previous weekly high zone around the high-6,800s, accompanied by a labeled weak high band overhead. In terms of market positioning, prices reside firmly in the upper half of the annual range, trading within a premium supply band rather than at a discount. Momentum indicators are showing signs of a slowdown, with the weekly oscillator retreating from overbought conditions and gently sloping downward, even as prices hold near their highs. This situation exemplifies early-stage negative momentum divergence, suggesting that while the overarching trend remains intact, any upside progress is now slower and increasingly susceptible to pullbacks. The structural bull market on the weekly timeframe is still valid, but the current price action falls into a costly zone, placing the onus on buyers to maintain upward momentum. Daily Trend Analysis Following a notable decline in November from the all-time high, ES established a higher low around the mid-6,500s, coinciding with a key extension bundle. Subsequently, it rebounded through the mid-6,700s, successfully reclaiming the essential daily midrange. The latest price action reflects a sequence of lower lows (LL), higher lows (HL), and a higher high, signaling a short-term bullish trend within a broader sideways pattern just beneath the recent highs. The active daily range is delineated between 6,650 and 6,900, with current trading situated in the upper third. The daily momentum oscillator has sharply ascended from oversold territory and sits comfortably in the 60s—nearing overbought conditions but not quite there yet. The daily trend indicates an uptrend initiated from a higher low, now testing resistance levels. Trend-following participants are positioned long, though late entrants may find themselves crowded near the upper edge of the trading range. Four-Hour Structural Insights The 4-hour chart reveals a strong reversal from a low around 6,525, where price structure has formed a clean stair-step of higher highs and higher lows. The latest 4-hour higher low rests in the high-6,700s. The recent impulse leg from this higher low has driven prices into the prior week's high and supply band near the high-6,800s. Observations indicate that candles are narrowing while wicks are extending, typically signaling an impending maturation of the current price leg. While this remains largely an impulse move rather than a complete correction, the risk-to-reward ratio for entering fresh long positions at these levels appears unfavorable without a corrective pullback. The 4-hour trend is decidedly bullish, yet this leg is maturing. A retracement toward the last observed higher low band in the high-6,700s would be both typical and healthy for the ongoing progression. One-Hour Intraday Context The 1-hour chart indicates a prolonged consolidation phase in the low-to-mid-6,800s, succeeded by a breakout thrust toward the prior week’s high. Recent micro-structural developments show small higher highs with diminished follow-through into the resistance zone. The emergence of upper wicks on the 1-hour candles suggests we're in the later stages of this move which originated from Friday’s New York low. For intraday traders, entering new positions at this stage carries poor asymmetry. Strategies may involve either capitalizing on a potential exhaustion spike higher or considering buys only after a reset lower. The intraday price leg is nearing maturity; anticipate either a minor mean reversion back into the breakout base or a final overshoot into the overhead extension band, followed by a more substantial pause. Oscillator Insights on Weekly and Daily Timeframes On the weekly front, the oscillator is rolling over from overbought levels, keeping prices near previous highs. While this in itself does not constitute a sell signal, it does imply that any additional advances will likely become increasingly challenging and volatile. Conversely, the daily oscillator remains robust, exhibiting positive momentum and trending upwards, although already sitting at mid-to-high levels. While there remains potential for one more uptick toward resistance, the risk of a sharp downturn looms larger should market news or flows fail to meet expectations. Bottom Line: The primary timeframe indicators (weekly/daily) maintain a bullish outlook, while the active swings on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are showing maturity and extension into resistance. The upcoming trading week will likely focus on navigating this late-stage upswing, either through fading exhaustion at the range's peak or by purchasing on controlled dips into well-defined demand zones. Market Overview: Key Levels and Dynamics Trend Boundary Analysis: 6,780 Area The pivotal threshold for discerning between a healthy pullback and a significant trend reversal lies around the 6,780 mark. A sustained daily close below this level—specifically under S2 and near the last daily higher low—would signal a transition from what appears to be a “healthy pullback in an uptrend” to a more pronounced “daily correction.” In contrast, remaining above 6,780 allows for the interpretation of pullbacks as buyable dips into existing demand. However, should the market close below this threshold with consistent acceptance evidenced by multiple 4-hour closes and significant volume, the prevailing sentiment would shift towards anticipating a larger trading range or an early trend change. Volatility Metrics Overview The volatility index (VIX) closed at approximately 16.35 on Friday, a considerable drop from the mid-20s earlier in the month, indicating a low-to-moderate equity volatility regime. The options market appears relaxed rather than panicked. The VIX term structure has returned to contango, with the front month trading cheaper than the back month, supporting a risk-on environment without veering into euphoria. On the treasury front, the MOVE index remains elevated at around 69, having retreated from mid-80s spikes earlier in November, signaling that rate volatility has cooled yet remains high compared to pre-2022 standards. The recent readings suggest that the fear that overshadowed the mid-month selloff has largely been priced out. Both equity and rate volatility have begun to mean-revert, typically favoring range trading and a more orderly trend rather than severe sell-offs. However, it’s important to note that the current state makes protective measures inexpensive, hinting that abrupt corrections could emerge unexpectedly. Options Positioning Dynamics The total put/call ratio is hovering around 0.70 for the latest session, suggesting a slight tilt towards puts relative to longer-term averages. The equity put/call ratio stands at about 0.44, indicating a bullish, call-heavy sentiment among traders, predominantly in single-name options. The 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio is roughly 0.92, slightly below neutral, indicating some short-term complacency, although not excessively stretched. The SKEW index has stabilized around 143, down from the 160s a year ago but still above the traditional baseline of 120-130. This points to an inclination for tail hedging that is present but not extreme. Given the mid-teen VIX levels and a neutral total put/call ratio combined with a low equity put/call ratio, it is reasonable to deduce that dealers are likely not heavily short gamma at current spots. They may be positioned closer to long or flat gamma within the 6,750-6,900 range, which generally dampens intraday volatility and suggests a tendency toward mean-reversion. Conversely, movement outside this band—specifically above 6,950 or below 6,730—could alter the gamma positioning and pave the way for more significant directional shifts. Market Breadth and Internal Strength The S&P 500 concluded the week with a modest 0.5% gain on Friday, reflecting small gains throughout the month, while the Nasdaq faced a 1.5% decline, primarily driven by weakness in large technology stocks. The S&P 500 remains above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, having reclaimed the 50-day line last week after an earlier dip, suggesting renewed market participation beyond just a few mega-cap stocks. Sector performance varied notably, with technology facing headwinds throughout November—most notably from AI-linked companies—while sectors such as energy, consumer cyclicals, and certain areas of healthcare and financials saw positive movements towards month-end. Despite an earlier warning from indicators like the McClellan Oscillator suggesting internal weaknesses, the recent rebound has begun to improve breadth. However, concerns linger that this rally might be more fragile than typical broad-based advances, given its rotational and choppy nature. Credit and Funding Landscape The high-yield index (HYG) hovers around 81, near recent highs, indicating generally favorable credit conditions as it has progressively climbed through November. High-yield spreads are tightening relative to recent standards, reinforcing a “risk-on” attitude within credit markets. There are no apparent signs of acute funding stress; previous operational disruptions in futures markets were not indicative of systemic issues. Currently, credit markets are not signaling alarms. As long as HYG remains above approximately 79, equity dips are more likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than triggers for widespread liquidation. Sentiment and Investor Positioning In the latest AAII survey, the bull-bear spread stands at around -11%, indicating a modest bearish sentiment, with bears outnumbering bulls by approximately 11 percentage points—below the historical mean of +6%. Conversely, the low equity put/call ratio suggests that traders are actively pursuing upside positions in individual equities. In summary, while survey data points to cautious investor sentiment, options markets illustrate a preference for call buying and a diminishment of fear. This dichotomy often results in uneven uptrends with the potential for sudden pullbacks when complacency is inevitably challenged. Global Risk Sentiment and Cross-Asset Overview In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin has stabilized around 90-91k following a significant correction earlier in the month, with modest recovery observed in the past week. This development underscores a risk-on atmosphere among investors. Macro and data-calendar context • The coming week (Dec 1–5) is busy but not as pivotal as the mid-December CPI/Payrolls • Key events: • Monday: ISM Manufacturing and construction spending. • Tuesday: JOLTS job openings. • Wednesday: ADP employment and ISM Services, plus several PMI and industrial-production figures. • Thursday: Challenger job cuts, weekly jobless claims, and trade balance. • Friday: Critically, the delayed PCE and core PCE inflation data for September, pushed back by the recent government shutdown. • Fed communication: The Fed is effectively entering its pre-meeting quiet period; Powell’s upcoming speech is one of the last major remarks before the December meeting. Macro narrative: Markets are leaning heavily toward another Fed rate cut in December and a benign inflation path.  Given that, negative surprises in PCE or labor data could trigger a sharp repricing. The late-November rally appears to be a recalibration of positioning and sentiment following a mid-month scare within the tech sector, rather than a direct response to any significant data shock. This week's major macroeconomic event is Friday's PCE report; other data releases are expected to influence intraday fluctuations rather than alter the overarching trend. Scenario Analysis and Probabilities These scenarios represent probabilistic outcomes rather than certainties. Primary Path — “Controlled Grind with Dip-Buying” (Approximately 50%) As we enter Monday, expect a modest pullback from Friday's late gains, with overnight Globex trading projected to fluctuate between 6,820 and 6,880. Early in the week, the market may test support levels S1 (6,830–6,840) or potentially S2 (6,790–6,805), ultimately leading to renewed attempts to breach resistance at R1 and possibly R2. By the week’s end, prices are anticipated to oscillate within a broad range of 6,790–6,930 ahead of Friday's PCE announcement, with only temporary moves outside this zone. Confirmation Criteria: This path will be validated if we observe rejections below the 6,780 level holding firm on a closing basis, accompanied by repeated failures of sellers to maintain downward pressure beneath S2. Bear-Extension Path — “Deeper Reset Before Year-End” (Approximately 30%) This scenario is triggered by a failed breakout above R1/R2 early in the week, coupled with a significant intraday reversal and a decisive 4-hour close beneath S2 and potentially S3. Initial price action may feature a spike into the 6,910–6,930 range followed by swift sell-offs, leading to a rapid retreat back through S1 and S2, particularly if the PCE data comes in above expectations or labor statistics surprise on the upside, prompting a re-assessment of potential Fed rate cuts. Target Area: The initial aim would be the 6,650–6,700 region (near S4), with the possibility of a complete reversal down toward the more robust 6,620–6,650 band. Confirmation Criteria: Continuous acceptance below approximately 6,730 on a 4-hour basis, combined with a daily close under the 6,780 threshold, would indicate a return to the narrative of a higher low for November. Bull-Surprise Path — “Breakaway Into New Highs” (Approximately 20%) This scenario is set in motion by a clear 4-hour and subsequent daily close above R2 and R3, driven by exceptionally benign PCE numbers and a supportive stance from the Federal Reserve. Initial price action should reflect minimal pullback in the early part of the week, steadily climbing past R1 and R2, ultimately resulting in a trend day that aggressively squeezes shorts above the 6,950 mark. Target Area: The market will likely gravitate toward the extension zone of 7,050–7,100. Confirmation Criteria: Sustained trading above 6,930 without significant reversals, robust market breadth, and a VIX that remains comfortably anchored in the mid-teens or lower will serve as key indicators for this bullish outlook. Two A++ setups for the week A++ Setup 1: Rejection short from R2 Fade spike into 6,910-6,930; Entries, SL, TPs Entry zone: 6,890–6,900 on the first clean 1-minute pullback after the 5-minute lower high. Initial stop: Above the rejection high plus a small buffer; planning number ~6,935. That is about 35-45 points of risk if filled near 6,895-6,900; refine to the actual 15-minute wick when it forms. TP1: 6,830-6,840 (S1 / breakout base). From a 6,895 entry, that is roughly 55–65 points, giving at least 1.3-1.5R with the conservative stop and significantly more if the wick is tighter. TP2: 6,790-6,805 (S2 demand pocket). TP3 (runner): 6,730-6,750 (S3), only if tape is heavy (e.g., PCE or data shock). A++ Setup 2: Continuation long from S2 ES Long (A++) - Buy reclaim of 6,790–6,805; Entries, SL, TPs Entry zone: 6,805-6,815 on the first 1-minute higher-low after the 5-minute confirmation. Initial stop: A few points below the spike low; planning number ~6,780, which gives about 25–35 points of risk. TP1: 6,870-6,885 (R1 / prior week high band). From a 6,810 entry, that is roughly 60–75 points, delivering comfortably more than 2R with the planned stop. TP2: 6,910-6,930 (R2 extension band). TP3 (runner): 6,950-6,980 (R3 / upper weekly supply) if PCE and flows are supportive. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Nov 25th)Market Outlook: Analyzing Technical Trends and Economic Indicators The recent rebound from the 6520–6450 support zone has generated a constructive short-term outlook. However, the market now approaches a significant supply area in the 6800 range. While the immediate trend appears to favor modest gains, contingent upon maintaining support between 6660 and 6645, a pivotal decision zone resides between 6765 and 6815. A strong acceptance above this band could trigger an upward movement towards 6855–6930, while failure to hold could lead to a corrective phase targeting 6690, 6625, and potentially 6550. Upcoming Economic Data: November 25 The week ahead is marked by a wealth of economic data expected to impact trading activity, particularly in the U.S. housing market and consumer sentiment. Key reports scheduled for Tuesday morning include the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for September, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November, Pending Home Sales for October, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. These releases, set for the 9:00–10:00 ET window, could introduce volatility into the markets. Recent trends in consumer confidence have suggested a dampened sentiment due to the prolonged government shutdown and slow job growth. A disappointing report could perpetuate discussions of recession and further Fed interest rate cuts, while an unexpected improvement would likely support the current risk-on sentiment. On the corporate front, pre-market earnings from major players like Analog Devices, Alibaba, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker, and NIO could further influence market dynamics in the early hours, especially if there are surprises in their guidance. Technical Analysis: Higher-Timeframe Perspective From a higher-timeframe standpoint, the daily chart reflects a completed down-swing exiting the prior weak high around 6930, retracting to the extension zone between 6525 and 6455 where buyers have demonstrated strong interest. This low now appears as a "strong low" in technical analysis terms, aligning with higher timeframe discount levels and previous demand signals. Oscillators indicate a shift from oversold conditions, currently suggesting a corrective rally rather than an immediate resumption of a downward trend. However, trading remains constrained within a 4-hour supply band between approximately 6765 and 6815. This range is characterized by the last notable lower high and previous sell-side momentum that precipitated the significant drop to 6520. Unless price breaches the 6815 threshold, the overall swing structure continues to reflect a "lower-high" scenario, which necessitates caution for any bullish positions as they occur within a broader corrective framework. Intraday Trading Dynamics: Expectations for the Day Analyzing the intraday structure on the 1-hour and 30-minute charts reveals that Monday’s trading culminated in a robust upward trend from the London low of 6625 to the New York AM low of 6646, concluding with a consolidation phase just beneath the Asia session high at 6724. The cluster of highs around 6715–6725 precisely correlates with an intraday equilibrium line situated just below the upper edge of the 4-hour supply band. Volume data indicates strong buying activity emerging from the base established at 6520–6625, tapering off as prices approached the 6715–6725 range. Further insights from the 1-hour oscillator hint at a cooling in momentum, suggesting that initial price reactions may favor mean reversion rather than an unimpeded breakout. Looking ahead into the New York trading hours: - Asia Session: Anticipate a trading range likely between 6700 and 6730, with potential stop raids above 6725 and minor retracements towards 6685. - London Session: If buyers can sustain the 6685–6660 level during potential pullbacks, this could establish a foundation for another attempt at reaching the 6765–6815 supply zone during the New York data release. - New York Open: Provided that the 6660–6645 area holds during 15-minute closes, the baseline scenario suggests a rotation into the 6765–6815 decision band between late London and early New York. A significant rejection in this zone, characterized by long upper wicks and unsuccessful 15-minute closes above 6815, would favor a pullback towards 6690–6710 by day’s end. Conversely, clear acceptance above 6815 on robust volume would pave the way for targets at 6855 and potentially back to 6930. Key zones Resistance zones: R1: 6724–6735 – Asia session high and intraday shelf, currently capping price. R2: 6765–6815 – 4h supply block and 1.272 extension on the recent down-swing; prior 4h lower-high origin; this is the primary A++ short zone. R3: 6855–6930 – Overhead daily supply with the prior weak high; if reached, expect heavy responsive selling on first touch. Support zones: S1: 6685–6660 – Intraday demand from the late-day push; includes London high at 6669.5 and prior structure; key pivot for the bullish case. S2: 6645–6625 – NY AM low and London session low; first real downside objective if S1 fails. S3: 6550–6525 – “Strong low” zone around the 1.272 extension; if this breaks on a closing basis the entire rebound thesis is likely wrong and the door opens toward the 1.618 around 6455 and even 6375. A++ Setup 1 – Short fade from 6765–6815 (Tier-1 rejection play) Entry zone: 6780–6805, leaning as close to 6800 as price action allows after the spike and stall. Invalidation / hard stop: 6827, above the 4h supply high and the 1.272 line; if price can close above there, the rejection idea is wrong. Targets and management: TP1: 6710–6690 (retest of intraday equilibrium and prior 30m shelf). That gives roughly 2R from a 6785–6800 entry with a 20–25 point stop. TP2: 6645–6625 (London and NY AM lows cluster). This is where you want the bulk of the remaining size off if sellers stay in control. TP3: 6550–6525 (strong low zone) only if macro tape turns risk-off; treat this as a runner target, not baseline. A++ Setup 2 – Long continuation from 6660–6680 (Tier-1 acceptance play) Entry zone: 6670–6680 after the sweep and reclaim; avoid catching the first knife if momentum is still heavy. Invalidation / hard stop: 6643, below the combined London low band; a 15m close below 6645 means the demand shelf failed. Initial risk: roughly 30–37 points depending on fill. Targets and management: TP1: 6724–6735 (Asia high / intraday range top). From a 6675 entry with a 30-point stop this is just over 1.5R; to keep the setup A++, bias toward entries closer to 6670 or take partials slightly higher, around 6740, where 2R is reached. TP2: 6765–6815 (4h supply band). This is where you expect strong counter-flow; plan to remove most of the remaining size here. TP3: 6855–6930 only if price slices through 6815 on strong volume and macro data support risk-on; in that case trail under 1h higher lows rather than using static targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
The Truth About Timeframe Analysis (No One Wants to Tell You)*You’re not confused because the market is chaotic. You’re confused because your framework is garbage.* 🔥 Timeframes Don’t Lie — But Traders Do Let’s be real: You jump between timeframes looking for “confirmation,” but all you’re really doing is collecting excuses. 1H looks bullish 15M looks like a breakout 4H is pulling back 5M is breaking structure in the opposite direction Now you have five different opinions in your head and exactly zero conviction. You hesitate. You enter late. You get trapped. You flip bias like a rookie. This isn’t “market randomness.” It’s simply a lack of hierarchy. ⚡ The Market Isn’t Messy. YOUR PROCESS Is Messy. Every timeframe gives you a “mini truth.” Without structure, you mix them together into something that feels like analysis… but is actually noise dressed as logic. That’s why you keep: ❌ trading micro signals against macro structure ❌ believing every candle is a reversal ❌ ignoring invalidations because you “like the setup” ❌ frying your brain before you’ve even risked a dollar You don’t need another indicator. You need a logic system that crushes noise and exposes REAL probabilities. 🔥 The 3 Variables (The Part Traders Think They Understand… But Don’t) Most traders “kind of” know what trend, zones, and candles are. And “kind of” is exactly why they lose. In this model, each variable has a precise definition, variations, and probability weights that change depending on the context. You’re not reacting emotionally — you’re measuring. That’s what makes the system mechanical. 1️⃣ Trend — The Market’s Actual Intent (Not Your Guess) Definition: The structural direction defined by higher timeframes — not the last 3 candles on 5M. Variations: Strong trend Weak/aging trend Neutral compression Context impact: A strong trend entering a strong zone with a confirming candle = high probability. A tired trend hitting a counter zone = danger. 👉 Trend isn’t “up or down.” It’s how mature and healthy that direction is. 2️⃣ Zone — Where the Real Decisions Are Made Definition: Price areas that actually matter: supply, demand, break/retests, major SR. Variations: Fresh zone (strongest) Retested zone (usable) Overused zone (dead) Context impact: Zones inside dominant trend → continuation setups Zones against dominant trend → only valid with strong multi-timeframe alignment Zones broken on mid-timeframes → bias must be re-evaluated 👉 Zones aren’t lines. They’re probability clusters. 3️⃣ Candle — The Signal That Confirms… or Invalidates Everything Definition: The micro-expression of intent: rejection, displacement, absorption, continuation. Variations: Rejection wick Displacement/imbalance Compression Fake strength traps Context impact: A “strong candle” in a weak zone means NOTHING. A clean rejection + structure shift inside a strong zone + aligned trend = top-tier entry. 👉 Candles are not signals by themselves. They’re filters. 💥 The Edge Isn’t the Variables — It’s Their Alignment Anyone can draw zones and identify candles. Losing traders do it every day. The real edge comes from understanding: how each variable shifts with context how its probability weight changes how alignment creates high-probability setups how misalignment warns you to STOP IMMEDIATELY Once each variable has a precise meaning and precise behavior inside each context… The system becomes mechanical. No more emotional gambling. No more “I think this is a reversal.” No more overthinking. Just one rule: If the variables align → execute. If they don’t → wait. 📶 The Only Timeframe Hierarchy That Makes Sense 📌 High Timeframes (4H / 1H) → Define true market bias → Only overridden by strong opposite confluence 📌 Mid Timeframes (30M / 15M) → Confirm or challenge the bias → Can create valid setups if rules align 📌 Entry Timeframes (10M / 5M / 2M) → Execution only → No bias allowed here This structure kills FOMO, kills hesitation, and kills the “I changed my mind” syndrome. 🚀 The Two Setups That Actually Pay 1️⃣ Precision Setups (Low-Risk / High-Accuracy) 1:1 to 1:2 Clean, frequent, reliable. 2️⃣ Momentum Setups (When Everything Aligns) 1:3+ Rare — but violent and highly profitable. If you’ve ever seen the market move exactly as you forecasted… That was confluence. You just didn’t know how to replicate it. 💀 Stop Trading Noise. Start Trading Probability. This model does NOT eliminate all losses. It eliminates the avoidable, stupid ones caused by emotional reactions and inconsistent bias. Give me 10 trades executed under true confluence, and the results explain everything. 📣 Want Chapter 2? I’ll break down the full confluence model and the exact rules that make it repeatable. Follow me here on TradingView, save this idea, and comment “CH2” if you want the next release. More coming soon — but only for the people actually paying attention.
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by RapidRanger
4
Uptrend Started After Liberation Day - All Has Broken BelowThe US markets have been described as “on a rally” for quite some time. I would not agree if it is meant to describe the overall US market, but would agree if it refers specifically to AI or tech stocks. Why? Among the four major US indices, the Russell—representing a much broader base of US-listed companies—continues to struggle to break above its high from last year, even though the others have far surpassed it. In fact, it has since corrected by 9.5% since its all-time high just last month. After that, the other indices are also following suit only in the past few days, breaking below this uptrend that started in April. Russell has taken the lead and has broken below this trend in late October. The earliest clue came from the Russell Index, where many suppliers of the Magnificent 7 companies are also part of Russell 2000 components. When the Russell—or smaller-cap companies—starts to weaken, it often reflects broader market pressures that may eventually spill over to the rest of the indices or vice versa. Video version on the process of how I monitor the four indices and then narrow it down to the individual index. Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index Ticker: M2K Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by konhow
The Magnificent Seven - A Great Victory with High CasualtyCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) The “Magnificent Seven” are the darlings in the U.S. stock market. The seven High-Tech stocks, including Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Google NASDAQ:GOOGL , Meta NASDAQ:META and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , are up roughly 21% year-to-date as a group. Together they represent 34-37% of the market capitalization of the entire S&P 500 index. Meanwhile, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 returned just 12% YTD. Altogether, the S&P 500 index has a YTD return of 13.5% as of November 24th. During the stock market bull run driven by A.I., a high concentration of the “Mag 7” could generate better returns. An investor could buy the MAGS Magnificent Seven ETF, which invests 100% in the “Mag 7” only. MAGS has a YTD return of 21.0%. A more aggressive investor could play his bet in Direxion Daily Magnificent 7 Bull 2X Shares ETF. This fund aims to replicate twice the return of the “Mag 7” and yield 29.0% YTD. Minding the Risk of Mag 7 Casualty The nickname “Magnificent Seven” came from the 1960 American Western. In the plot, a gang of bandits periodically raids a poor Mexican village for food and supplies. The farmers turn to gunslinger Chris Adams for help. Chris assembles a group of seven warriors to fight the gang. They eventually defeat the bandits and save the village. The Magnificent Seven is my favorite Western movie. The gun fight led by Yul Brynner and Steve McQueen is legendary. And the Oscar-winning theme song is still playing in many grand ceremonies these days. The analyst who coined the term for the stocks may also be a big fan of the movie. However, he only saw the great victory but overlooked its heavy toll. Four out of the seven warriors perished in the final fight. A question for today: Could all seven stocks be winners to the end? In past technological breakthroughs, many big players did not survive, even if they were market leaders at some point and technology did prevail eventually: • In the Railway boom of the mid-1900s, thousands of railroad companies were formed. At least 300 were listed in the New York Stock Exchange. And 99% of them went bankrupt once the industry consolidated. • In the automobile boom of the early 1920s, over 600 car makers were founded, and only 30 of them were still operational by the 1930s. And the eventual victors were the Big Three in Detroit. • In the Internet boom of the 1990s, thousands of startups popped up. And 80% went bankrupt when the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. • Since Tesla was founded in 2003, over 100 electric vehicle companies were founded. Dozens already folded after burning through cash and not generating sales. We are seeing the same pattern repeating in renewable energy (solar and wind), computer chips, and now in A.I. startups too. Taken from historical lessons, investing in individual stocks in any transformational new technology sector is highly risky. The leading man could be sidelined as soon as a newer version of the technology comes through. I have no doubt that A.I. is our future. I just don’t know which of the Mag 7 will survive to the end to collect their $20 payout from the Mexican farmers. Investing in Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures If an investor is bullish on A.I. but mindful of the single-stock risk exposure, he could explore the CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures. The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract. Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 2,349,680 contracts were traded last Friday, November 21st. Open Interest at the end of the day was 298,556. Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $2,262. With Monday closing price of 6,677.75, each March 2026 contract (MESH6) has a notional value of $33,388.75 (= 6677.75 x 5). Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 14.8 times (=33388.75/2262). Hypothetically, if S&P futures price rises 10% to 7,012, the price gain of 668 points will translate into $3,340 (= 668*5) in profit for a long position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $2,262 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 147% (=3340/2262). The risk to long Micro S&P is that the US stock market correction continues to deepen. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a long position. For illustration, a trade executed a long trade at 6,680 could be combined with a 6,300 stop. If the S&P falls to 6,000, the trader’s position will be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $1,900 (= (6680-6300) * $5). Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
SPY: The Final Capitulation Before the Blow OffThe S&P 500 has experienced notably choppy price action over the past 60 days following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. Many large-cap stocks most notably Nvidia, which saw a substantial rally have provided attractive profit-taking opportunities. Since then, the broader market has been trading sideways and, more specifically, within a local downtrend over the last 30 days. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this pullback may be unfolding as a complex WXY corrective structure. A WXY pattern is essentially a series of connected ABC corrections each consisting of a three-wave “measured moves" that collectively form a more drawn-out and often more intricate consolidation phase. These moves can be mathematically projected using fibonacci. The purpose of such a correction is typically to cool off the market after an extended rally. This cooling phase can manifest as a meaningful price decline, a time-based consolidation, or a combination of both. Ultimately, it allows market sentiment to reset and establishes a balanced range from which a stronger, more sustainable breakout can occur. The main point of uncertainty lies in whether the W wave has been correctly identified. The subsequent X wave appears to form an expanding flat structure composed of three waves, ending with an impulsive move that taps the 1.618 extension—aligning well with typical Fibonacci market mathematics. If a final Y-wave leg lower is still ahead, we have a clearly defined 1% invalidation level. Below that, a deeper sweep of the previous low becomes possible, allowing us to draw a trend-based Fibonacci extension from the W and X pivots to project a potential termination point for wave Y. I’ll be closely monitoring this lower region, as it could present an excellent buying opportunity—one that could position the market for significantly higher upside targets and, at minimum, a retest or sweep of the current all-time highs.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by afurs1
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buys!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast or the week of Dec. 1-5th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 rallied last week, closing strong! Look for follow through going into this week. Go with the overall bullish trend until there is a bearish market structure break. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money
From Shutdown Relief to AI Anxiety — Two Narratives Driving ESMarket Theme The week began on a strong footing, driven by a bullish Sunday reopen in ES after news broke that the 43-day government shutdown was set to end, following the Senate’s late-night support for a potential agreement on November 9th. This relief catalyst created early upside momentum, pushing the index toward all-time highs (ATHs). However, the tone shifted mid-week. The rally lost steam as markets refocused on a growing concern: the sustainability of current Tech and AI valuations. Investors are becoming more sensitive to the possibility of overstretched AI-related capital expenditure and an emerging bubble narrative, especially with heavyweight earnings and forward-guidance looming. This led to a rotation out of high-beta tech and into safer or less-extended sectors. On the macro front, Fed speakers adopted a more cautious—if not outright hawkish—tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is far from assured. The recent government shutdown created a backlog in key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and traders alike without clear visibility into the true state of the economy. The lack of data has amplified uncertainty and reduced the market’s conviction around the timing of any potential policy easing. In short: The market is caught between two opposing forces: The optimistic narrative (shutdown resolved, path to ATHs, resilience in U.S. growth), and The risk narrative (valuation excess, policy uncertainty, narrowing breadth). This push-pull dynamic has resulted in compression rather than continuation, with a heavy focus on clarity from upcoming data and major earnings. What is the Market Doing? Last week formed an inside week, with the entire range trading within the prior week’s range and settling close to the previous week’s close. This signals indecision and balance, as neither buyers nor sellers had the conviction to push the market into expansion. Current price action shows the market compressing between: 6875 — previous week’s VPOC / 27 Oct weekly VAL 6740— 13 Oct weekly VAH / 10 Nov weekly volume ledge These levels are well-defined and respected. The upward trendline continues to hold, with multiple strong rejections signaling responsive buyers stepping in to bid prices back up. The battle is now between buyers attempting to defend 6740 area which is also confluent with the daily trendline support, and sellers leaning on the overhead resistance close to 6875. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key line in the sand (LIS) this week: → 6755.25 — Previous week's settlement Bullish Scenario If 6755 holds as support, expect buyers to attempt a push toward: 6874.50 — previous week's VPOC 6905.5— weekly 1-SD volatility high Anticipate responsive sellers in this area. However, if price breaks above 6874.50 with pace and volume and accepts above it, the path opens for a retest of the ATHs as momentum players and trapped shorts fuel continuation. Bearish Scenario If the market accepts below 6755 and fails to reclaim it on any pullback: First downside target: 6660 — 13 Oct weekly VAL If buyers fail to respond there, expect an acceleration lower from long liquidation toward: 6605— weekly 1-SD volatility low 6504 — previous month's low (deeper target) This scenario strengthens if the trendline breaks and sellers begin stepping down aggressively. Neutral / Compression Scenario If the market remains trapped between 6875 and 6740 with no breakout supported by pace and volume: Expect two-way rotational trade Continued compression and balance within the well-defined range A buildup of energy that may resolve later in the week with data, earnings or fundamental catalysts Conclusion As we start the new week, ES remains tightly coiled between well-defined levels, with the market waiting for clarity from data, earnings, and policy signals. Whether we break from compression or continue to balance, the key will be how buyers and sellers respond around 6755 and whether there are new fundamental catalysts. As always, I’d love to hear your view on the markets and ES this week? — Drop it below — and give it a boost so more of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
11
S&P500: Poised for Further Pullback The S&P 500 futures are currently trading just above support at 6,540 points, but are expected to see a temporary pullback within magenta wave (4). In our primary scenario, we anticipate the sell-off will extend into the green Long Target Zone between 6,163 and 5,912 points. From this area, we expect the start of wave (5), which would complete the magenta five-wave sequence and push the index higher—ideally above resistance at 6,952 points. This move would also mark the final high of the broader blue wave (III). However, if selling pressure intensifies and the Long Target Zone is breached, our alternative scenario will come into play (probability: 31%). In this case, blue wave alt.(III) would already be complete, and the index would enter a significantly deeper correction phase.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarketIntel
ES1 - Tame Black Friday or Dump IncomingUS Black Friday is known as quite a tame day with shorter hours... But its worth noting that S&P Futures has reached the retracement Golden Window - an area where corrective action often peaks. And its slightly above a significant resistance - in the higher liquidity zone. So this is setting up for a potential Head & Shoulders Pattern. When I refer to an H&S I do not at all consider that we can use it to judge downside - that theory is a nonsense in my opinion. But it is a pattern that may lead to a pull back. For now there is no price action to suggest a slump, but lets watch out for it because this is an ideal area for one if this move up proves to be exhausted. If it does slump then high octane positions may be affected and there may be dips buys, but very deep buys may have relative buoyancy and hold. This is a neutral post for now - we'll see how it develops 🧐. This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dRends35
ES - November 25th - Daily Trade PlanNovember 25th- Daily Trade Plan - 8:25am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As many of you know that when we have a big sell off like we did last week, we squeeze higher and usually will back test the area we broke down from. When this happens, we will have 2-3 days where price will not flush the previous day's low and you have to find opportunities in other levels to grab some points. When we are in a tight range, we can usually find a flush and reclaim of the 9:30-9:45am low can be another good place to look to enter. This could be something like flush below 6715 to 6706-11 and then reclaim the session opening low. (This is not how I typically look for points, but it is a good way when we are in a tight range and have limited setups.) The overnight high is 6732 and Overnight low is 6701. Key Levels Today 1. 6732 reclaim (Back test of this level should give us a move to 6755) 2. 6701 flush and reclaim 3. 6669 - flush and reclaim 4. 6623 - flush and reclaim Below there and I would be patient and wait to see what price does at the levels below. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 5. White Levels are previous day's session High/Low
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES UpdateMFI is overbought, RSI is about to get there, but I think all we will get is a dip and not a tank because FDAX regained support. I'm assuming a slow melt up at this point, I don't play melt ups with options, so unless there's a big drop, don't expect updates. The blue resistance line represents where the market was before Trump's tariff announcement, so at this point we're right back to where we were, lol. Also, all of the gaps filled, so I don't have an upward or downward target.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo