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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Mar 2020)

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ESH2020 trade ideas

Review S&P 500 futures weekly chart - 8/8/2025Price is Knocking on the Door of All-Time Highs The bulls are back in control. Price is pushing above the 6,400 magenta resistance, a level that has capped rallies before — and we’re now testing it head-on. The uptrend from the late-2022 low remains strong, with price riding comfortably above the green moving average ribbon like a surfer on a perfect wave. The last big pullback in early 2024? It was a clean bounce off the 4,000–4,100 blue support zone, marked by a textbook "Bull Wick" reversal candle. That move lit the fuse for a powerful rally, and the setup now has a similar feel. Key Levels I’m Watching Resistance: 6,400 (magenta) – in play right now. Support: 5,600 (red), 4,300 (blue), and a deeper 3,800 zone (blue). History shows that breakouts above major resistance here have triggered multi-week runs. The Indicator Story MACD: Bullish crossover forming, histogram shifting into positive territory → momentum is building. Stochastic RSI: Tapped overbought and curling slightly down → short-term cooling possible. RSI: Near 70, still in bullish territory and not yet screaming overbought. The Bigger Picture On the weekly chart, the trend is undeniably strong. Price is above all major moving averages, and momentum is on the bulls' side. However, with multiple oscillators sitting high, the market might need to catch its breath — either through a small pullback or sideways consolidation — before launching into the next leg higher. Bottom Line The breakout is here, but confirmation is key. A strong push and close above 6,400 could open the door to another sustained rally. If the breakout fails, I’ll be watching the 5,600–5,400 range for signs of buyer defense.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TipsFromDips
Nq & Es Key Levels & Daily Bias 08-08-2025Today’s bias is once again bullish, aiming for those all-time highs. When the market opens at 09:30, I’d like to see price dip into discount zones or take out some lows first — that would set up a nice rally upward and a potential long opportunity. If that doesn’t happen, I’ll stay on the sidelines. No chasing longs in premium territory. Enjoy the day no matter what happens, and keep learning so you’re sharper tomorrow. We’ll check back later to see how it played out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FTAKAS
ES - August 8th - Daily Trading PlanThe session open of 6370 held this level overnight and we had a shallow failed breakdown around 1:45am at 6368 and rallied back up to the overnight highs. We are trading in a tight 20 pt range overnight and currently we are testing the 6391 level. 6391 is the 0.618 retracement of the 6426 high to 6333 low from yesterday session. We could stall and move back down the levels once reached or continue higher. IF, we continue higher, we should be able to continue up to test 6400, 6410, 6426. If we reject the 6391 level, we will need to come back down and need to hold the 6370 session open level or we will possibly continue to look for support at 6344, 6333, 6324. 6315. Below these levels and we will be looking to the 6297, 6280, 6252, 6240. Personally, 6315 is probably the better next level down for a decent move. We could easily have a session like yesterday where no follow through happened until the 6333 level. Since it was tested yesterday, you would want to see a flush to 6324 or 6315 and reclaim of the levels above the bounce to long for a level-to-level move. My plan is looking for a rejection of the 6391-95 range and see us pullback and retest the overnight low. This has been tested already and may not produce much support. You will need to see how price is acting as it nears. You can see my post last night in the related publications section as to the levels I outlined and how that played out. "Price needs to hold 6365 with 6355 at lowest or we will most likely go back down and retest the 6344 & 6333 levels which have been a magnet this week." 6368 was the overnight low and we rallied from this level. We might get one more bounce but could fizzle out quickly. I will post an update around 10am once the NYSE opens and we can see how price acts in the first 30 mins.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Futures reject at supply, bear flag forming?The market has sold off big time to round out last week and has been chopping around in a recovery for the past few days. I decided to make a little channel from the bottom to the recent lows and it looks like we broke the bottom of the channel and then managed to get back into it, of course if we can break out above the channel that is hyper-bullish because a ton of shorts will be trapped after the initial break. On the other hand, a false break on a channel is less likely than a follow-through, so odds would indicate bearish sentiment. I checked the volume profile of the previous sessions and it looks like supply/demand has acted as a good spot for support and resistance levels. Today we bid right up to the supply level and sold off all the way to the demand level, supply acted as resistance and demand acted as support and we ended roughly in the middle of the two zones. Overall, it doesn't really tell you much, but the coming days will paint the picture better. If we can break below 6340 I would expect an attempt at 6250 and possibly lower. If we can break above 6425 then we can go to new all time highs. Overall I am leaning slightly bearish, but watching for price action confirmation.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MikeSpy
Day 4 — Trading Only S&P Futures — +$207, Patience Pays OffWelcome to Day 4 of Trading Only S&P Futures! After two tough losing days, I took a morning yoga session to clear my mind and approach the market calmly. I started trading late but found a strong A+ setup near 6355, aligned with a major gamma zone and RSI signals, which led to a $200+ profit. 📈 What you’ll learn The importance of mindset and mental clarity in trading How to identify strong setups using market structure and gamma zones Reading RSI on multiple timeframes for confirmation Managing risk and knowing when to call it a day ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Day 4 Overview 0:30 — Mindset Reset & Trade Recap 1:30 — VX Algo Signal Recap & Setup Breakdown 3:00 — Market News & Impact 3:30 — Key Levels for Tomorrow 4:00 — Closing Thoughts & Next Steps 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 9:39 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy) 11:52 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 12:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell signal 📰 News Highlights U.S. jobless claims rose to 226,000 vs. estimate 221,000, signaling increased layoffs. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6332 = Remain Bullish Below 6315 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES - August 7th Evening Open & August 8th - Daily Trading PlanAugust 7th - 4:10pm - Opening Session - Trade Plan We had a nice move higher in last night's overnight session and then we sold off at the 6400 level by 10am this morning. While price has found a nice short-term bottom at a key level of support 6333, we also rallied in the last hour to clear the 6368 level that was also the overnight low before we broke below it during the daily session. (I had this detailed in my notes that you can review from my last post and is in the related publications section). We have pretty clear support & resistance levels we are going to be watching overnight and into the morning session. Price needs to hold 6365 with 6355 at lowest or we will most likely go back down and retest the 6344 & 6333 levels which have been a magnet this week. IF, price can hold these levels, we should back test the 6378, 6391 and potentially the 6400 level that we sold off from. We are still in a bullish uptrend and can continue all the way to retest the 6426 level if bulls want to. We have nothing short term to be bearish about until 6315 is tested and failure of this level could produce a larger sell off targeting 6297, 6286, 6250, 6240. IF, price does lose 6315 I will be looking for a reaction at the 6286 & 6252 levels for some points to go back and retest the 6315 area. I will provide an update before 7am EST tomorrow based on the overnight session price action. Make sure to follow so you get notified when I post my daily trade plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
SPY The Final Countdown Since the April lows, equity markets have exhibited strong performance, with many stocks appreciating by nearly 100%—some even exceeding that threshold. Given the velocity of this rally, a corrective pullback may be imminent before the broader uptrend resumes. The current reading on the Fear & Greed Index places market sentiment firmly within the "extreme greed" territory—historically a zone where investors often begin to lock in profits or initiate contrarian positions against the prevailing trend. From a technical standpoint, I’ve conducted an Elliott Wave impulse analysis to evaluate the recent price structure. This method, which utilizes Fibonacci-based mathematical relationships, provides insight into the expansion and contraction phases of market cycles. Using the trend-based Fibonacci extension tool, one can estimate potential termination zones for impulse waves. In the current scenario, the fifth wave appears to be approaching completion. By analyzing the proportional relationships between waves 1, 3, and 4, a key confluence level emerges at the 61.8% extension—commonly referred to as the “golden pocket”—just above the 6400 level on the futures chart. I plan to set alerts at this price level to secure profits, hedge existing positions, and potentially initiate a short trade—should market structure confirm a reversal through a valid breakdown trigger.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by afurs1
6
Nasdaq’s All Time HighsLiquidity moves liquidity. Expansion, Retracement, Reversal, Consolidation Market is doing 1 of these 4 Expansion is determined by where liquidity sits and where it is going. Price delivery is upmost important when receiving bias and narrative Seeing where price is coming from is just as important as seeing where price plans to go. Rookies make the mistakes of catching the small reversals thinking it is the big move, it’s not. Price is simply reaching equilibrium and balancing out buyers and sellers … Zoom out, you’re a sniper in a big field with one target, when you’re unsure always zoom out. External range liquidity will target Internal range liquidity and vic versa. Finding your entry in a discount/premium inside a context is key. But by all means do NOT get caught in the pullback.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by strictly_nasdaq
1
ES - August 7th - Daily Trade PlanI posted last night (See related publication link) that "our first support down at 6363 level and an ultra-bull case for tomorrow is to build a flag and break out above 6380 with targets of 6386, 6402+". We exceeded the 6402 overnight high and reached 6427. Since we rallied overnight, one headline could take us all the way back down to 6380 or 6363 which is the overnight low. Last night price built a nice bull flag and consolidated between 6380 - 6390. Ideally, we see price come and back test this area maybe gets to around 6386-88, then reclaim 6390 and then go back up and retest the levels ahead. IF, we don't get a reclaim at this level, retesting the overnight lows and reclaim of 6363 would be a great spot for a level-to-level move. I never like to chase price and when we get a 60pt overnight move, I will be waiting to see how price moves in the first 30 mins of the NYSE Open. I will add an update around 9:45am. Any dip below the levels in yellow and reclaim of these levels, should give us a move back up the levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
1
Day 3 — Trading Only S&P 500 FuturesDay 3 — Trading Only S&P Futures Daily P/L: -142.87 Sleep: 7 hours Emotions: Headache & stress from the morning :thought_balloon: Today’s Trade thoughts: I made a typo when i was putting some orders in from last night that triggered and started the day -300 so I spent most of today just grinding it back again. I think going forward, I am going to make a rule to limit myself of only doing 2 MES MAX during night time if i plan to put orders in because it really sadden the mood when you start the day negative. Overall, today's trading day wasn't that bad, we had bullish structure and AAPL event that carried the market up. I took some shorts at 6355 that didn't work out but eventually made money at the end of the day as i shorted 6375 zones. I have noticed that** max Gamma levels don't truly settle until 11am. ** :bell:News Highlights: *TRUMP TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 25% TARIFF ON GOODS FROM INDIA :bar_chart: VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST): 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! @everyone* 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:40 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) 1:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal (double buy) :chart_with_upwards_trend: Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6332 = Remain Bullish Below 6315 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5
ES - August 6th Evening Open / August 7th Daily Trading PlanWe held the 6324 level today and institutional buyers stepped in at this level and we rallied to our targets for the day. We currently have our first support down at 6363 level and an ultra-bull case for tomorrow is to build a flag and break out above 6380 with targets of 6386, 6402+ Ideally, we would pull back overnight and flush 6344, 6323 or the 6315 level and reclaim for a nice move up the levels. Either way, trend is still up, and short-term bulls need to hold 6315 level, or we will probably retest the levels below at 6297, 6280, 6252 and then the Friday's low of 6240. I will update my August 7th trading plan tomorrow am as we need to see what price does in the evening session. My lean is we don't lose 6344, but any flush and recovery of levels outlined we should continue up higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Nq & Es Analysis 06-08-2025 After the OpenAs expected, the first scenario played out — with the Nasdaq pushing higher, pulling back for a retracement, and then targeting the previous day’s high. The only difference was that the S&P 500 initially printed some lows and showed more sluggish behavior compared to the Nasdaq. However, once the market opened and volatility kicked in, price resumed its true direction. Challenging day overall, with some unusual price action. Still, as you can see, the key levels we shared earlier held up beautifully once again. See you tomorrow — 30 minutes before the market opens (09:00 AM) NY TIME!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FTAKAS
ES- August 6th, 2025 - Daily Trading Plan6315 was yesterday's low and our overnight low. It has been tested multiple times and while typically it would be a great place for a flush and reclaim, it has also been tested and is very weak. IF, price breaks below 6315, we might get a quick pop, but I would rather see us flush down to 6296 or 6280 area and then reclaim 6296 for a level-to-level move and back test the 6315 level. IF, price clears 6315 we can continue to retest the 6333 & 6358 levels. We continue to trade in small ranges and until we can clear 6377 or flush Friday's level of 6240 and recover, it will be tough to find good quality setups. We really need to flush the 6240 level for a nice move back up to retest 6315. I will update my session plan after 9:30am open.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Approachable Contracts for Trading Around Fed DecisionsCME Group E-Mini S&P Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) and Micro S&P Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), #microfutures On July 30th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 4.25-4.50% target range. Investors now turn their focus on whether the Fed will cut rates on the September 16th-17th FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool, as of August 6th, there is a 92.4% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. My observation: • Before July FOMC, market consensus was no rate cut, with the odds at 95.3% as of July 20th. Investors now overwhelmingly expect rate cuts to come at the next meeting. • Two Fed governors broke the long-run consent and voted against the FOMC decision. Today, I would like to explore two trading strategies focusing on the next Fed decision. We will start by breaking down all possible Fed decisions as follows: 1) Cut rates by 25 basis points (92.4%) 2) No rate cuts (7.6%) 3) All others, such as cutting by 50 bps and raising rates by 25 bps (0%) If we deem the 3rd option to be statistically insignificant, we now have an event with binary outcomes, namely, Cut and No Cut . Since “Cut” is the market consensus, we will translate the possible outcomes as: • Meet market expectations (Cut Rates) • Exceed market expectations (No Cut) Furthermore, financial markets will likely react calmly if the Fed decision meets expectations, while asset prices could swing widely if the FOMC exceeds expectations. Typically, US stock market indexes, interest rate contracts and the US dollar exchange rates are very sensitive to the Fed decisions. Our discussion today will focus on stock indexes. I will follow up on the other two asset classes in future writings. Based on the above analytical framework, we could design two sets of trading strategies: Sell Call Options if a trader expects the Fed to cut rates • Since the decision meets expectations, asset prices would not move a lot. • Options may expire worthiness, which allows sellers to pocket the premium as profit. Sell Futures if a trader expects No Cut • Since the decision exceeds expectations, S&P prices could go down sharply. • With build-in leverage in futures contracts, a trader could realize enhanced profit. Now, let’s explore how to structure trading strategies using S&P futures and options. Hypothetical Fed Decision 1: Meet Expectations Cutting rates is bullish for S&P as it will lower borrowing costs for component companies. However, since market already priced in a Fed cut, stock prices will not move a lot. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ). Each ES contract has a notional value of $50 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the September ES contract (ESU5) is quoted at 6,341, making the notional value at $317,050. • Call options at the 6500-strike are quoted at $42. By selling 1 call, options seller will receive $2,100 in upfront premium (= 42 x 50). • Options expire on September 19th, two days after the FOMC. If ESU5 price does not exceed 6500, options seller will pocket the premium as profit. • Warnings: selling options involves significant risks. Seller could lose more than the premium he collected. To cut losses, seller could buy back at the open market and exit the position. This will avoid losses to accumulate by expiration date. Hypothetical Fed Decision 2: Exceed Expectations Since rate cut is already priced in, an Unchanged decision will likely cause the S&P to fall sharply, as expected future borrowing costs will go up. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling CME Micro S&P 500 futures ( MSTAR:MES ). Each MES contract has a notional value of $5 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the notional value of ESU5 is $31,705. Buying or selling 1 futures contract requires an upfront margin deposit of $2,135 at the time of this writing. Micro S&P 500 futures are 1/10 in notional comparing to its E-Mini counterpart. With smaller size and lower margin requirement, the micro contracts are more approachable for non-professional traders. At the same time, they also enjoy the leverage built-in the futures contracts. Micro S&P contracts tap into the liquidity pool with the broad S&P contract suite. Hypothetical Trade • Short 1MESU5 at 6,341, and set a stop loss at 6450 • Trader pays $2,135 for initial margin A “Meet” Scenario: S&P go up 1.5% to 6,436 • Short position loss: $475 (= (6436-6341) x 5) • The maximum loss will be $545 if the S&P moves higher, due to the stop-loss feature An “Exceed” Scenario: S&P falls 5% to 6,024 • Short position gain: $1,585 (= (6341-6024) x 5) • The theoretical return is 74.2% (= 1585/2135), excluding transaction fees Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
S&P 500: The Underlying Trend Remains BullishLast week, the S&P 500 index entered a consolidation phase amid a packed fundamental calendar. The Fed’s monetary decision, PCE inflation, the NFP report, and trade negotiations all triggered short-term profit-taking. However, this consolidation has remained technically well-structured, with key supports intact, and the broader trend remains bullish. Let’s conduct a technical assessment as this week unfolds under geopolitical pressure, with the Friday, August 8 ultimatum set for Russia. 1. The underlying trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish above the major support at 6050/6150 points Let’s first examine the different timeframes for the S&P 500 futures contract. The triptych below shows monthly, weekly, and daily candlesticks. All three timeframes send the same message: the underlying trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish as long as the major support at 6050/6150 points holds on a weekly closing basis. This support zone corresponds to the former all-time high from last winter. In the short term, a retest of the support cannot be ruled out before the trend resumes. 2. Quantitative analysis does not show an overbought situation, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average still below extreme levels Last week’s consolidation helped deflate a potential overbought condition. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average was approaching an overbought zone, but is now back to 50%, giving the index renewed capacity to resume its bullish trend. 3. The Dow Jones is in an accumulation phase below its all-time high The Dow Jones also shows a promising technical setup, potentially forming a bullish continuation inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakout above the 45,000-point resistance is needed to confirm this signal. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index shows a similar technical structure. 4. Retail investor sentiment is still far from euphoric extremes Market tops are always built in euphoria, especially among retail traders. According to the latest data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), buying interest has increased and is slightly above the historical average, but still far from its typical overheating zone. This sentiment indicator confirms that the underlying trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish above the 6050/6150-point support (based on S&P 500 futures). DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
Day 2 — Trading Only S&P Futures — -$100, Grinding Back from Los Day 2 — Trading Only S&P Futures Daily P/L: -100 Sleep: 8 hours Emotions: Good :thought_balloon: Today’s Trade thoughts: I rushed into a trade thinking 6330 was going to be a good area of support to buy and oversized my position going 5 mes deep in my first trade and adding 5 more at the 48 min MOB at 6325 and got stopped out at the bottom down -400 and pretty much spent the rest of the day grinding back up. Overall market seem to have rejected the higher timeframe resistance and deciding which direction to go. :bell:News Highlights: U.S. STOCKS END LOWER, VIX JUMPS AFTER WEAK ISM SERVICES DATA :bar_chart: VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST): — 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal — 9:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal — 9:48 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 11:00 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy signal) — 12:50 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal** :chart_with_upwards_trend: Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6332 = Bullish Below 6310 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3