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Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures

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SPX: AB=CD Pattern Completion Suggests Long SetupS&P 500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversal Signal at AB=CD Completion 1. Pattern Recognition: A classic bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern has reached its precise completion point (D). This validates the designated support zone as a significant technical area where buyer momentum is anticipated to overcome recent selling pressure. 2. Market Structure Implications: The successful completion of this pattern suggests: · The establishment of a firm, technically-defined support level. · Exhaustion of the prior downward (CD) leg. · An increased probability of a mean-reversion move higher, targeting a retracement of the recent decline. 3. Trade Thesis & Risk Management: The confluence at the D point presents a favorable risk/reward opportunity for a long position. · Action: Initiate long positions. · Entry Zone: At or near the pattern's D completion point. · Invalidation Level: A decisive close below the D point invalidates the pattern structure. Place stop loss accordingly. · Primary Target: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg. · Secondary Target: The initiation point (C) of the pattern.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by 618SurfClub
2
S&P Futures Trading Day 85 — Watching the Market Run Without MeEnded the day +$80 trading S&P Futures. My pre-market analysis spotted a potential breakout from the recent downtrend, with the only major resistance looming ahead at the 6890s. I set my plan to short that resistance and look for longs at the 5-minute MOB. Unfortunately, I was just a step too late on the long entry, and the market ripped higher without filling my order. It’s always frustrating to watch a planned move happen without you, but I stayed disciplined, took the small win on the shorts, and respected the bullish market structure. 📰 News Highlights S&P 500 CLIMBS AS ONGOING AI-LED REBOUND PUSHES TECH HIGHER 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:29 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bullish (X3) ✅ 11:20 AM — VXAlgo NQ X1DP Buy Signal ✅ 2:00 PM — VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal ✅ 3 out of 3 signals worked — 100% accuracy today. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6900 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
S&P Futures Trading Day 83 — Riding the Trendline: Bearish ThesiEnded the day +$250 trading S&P Futures. Today was a textbook session where the morning analysis played out perfectly. My bearish thesis was strong right out of the gate, based on the price being under the trendline and confirming the bearish market structure. I opened my short positions at the open and set a crucial batch of orders at the 2-hour MOB. The market played out exactly as anticipated, delivering a clean profit day. It's always satisfying when the planning, structure, and execution align this well. 📰 News Highlights *DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ END LOWER AS TECH STOCKS TUMBLE AHEAD OF JOBS REPORT 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:30 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bearish (X3) (Assuming Yes, aligning with thesis) ✅ 10:00 AM — VXAlgo NQ X3DP Buy Signal (Assuming No, as it's a Buy signal in a Bearish Market) Yes 1:30 PM — VXAlgo ES X1 Oversold signal (Assuming Yes, marking the low) ✅ 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6900 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Wed (Dec 17th)Market Update: ES Faces Critical Decision Point The ES market is currently navigating a narrow “decision pocket” between 6850 and 6865, following a significant selloff and a subsequent bounce that has yet to establish a definitive trend. The situation is clear: buyers must defend the lower range of 6834 to 6817 to maintain market stability within this range. Conversely, sellers are focusing on the upper threshold between 6880 and 6892. With the Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Thursday morning, traders are likely to become more reactive, potentially taking profits swiftly and responding sensitively to any news regarding interest rates. What can move ES tomorrow (high-impact catalysts, ET) 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications - usually a modest mover, but it can nudge rates early. 8:15 Fed Governor Waller (Economic Outlook) - big rates sensitivity; ES can whip on any change in tone. 9:05 NY Fed President Williams - opening remarks at an NY Fed conference; still headline-capable. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - can move crude and inflation expectations, which can leak into ES. 11:00 Treasury buyback details (eligible bonds list) - rates pulse risk. 1:00 20Y Treasury auction (competitive bids) - one of the bigger intraday “rates steering wheel” moments. 1:40-2:00 Treasury buyback operation window - can add another yields swing in the early afternoon. Macro and News Themes to Watch Ahead of Tomorrow’s Market In the current environment, interest rates are proving to be the primary driver of market dynamics. Any increase in long-term yields exerts downward pressure on the equity markets, particularly when key indices like the S&P 500 are hovering near critical resistance levels. The Federal Reserve's messaging remains notably inconsistent. While some officials are emphasizing the importance of maintaining inflation credibility and adopting a cautious stance towards future rate cuts, others suggest that monetary policy is already positioned effectively and anticipate a gradual cooling of inflation. This divergence creates a volatile atmosphere, leading to heightened market reactions surrounding Fed speeches. On the geopolitical front, oil prices are responding to ongoing developments, particularly concerning Venezuela, which has raised supply-risk concerns. This uptick in crude prices has the potential to reinforce inflation narratives and influence equity market sentiment. Additionally, the looming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, where a rate hike is expected, adds another layer of complexity. Even ahead of this anticipated move, shifts in foreign exchange and global rates could significantly impact U.S. index futures and overall market positioning. Overnight NY Market Forecast Base Case Scenario: The market is expected to trade within a range of 6832.75 to 6880.50. Watch for potential retracements towards the 6849.00-6849.75 level, which appears to be a pivotal support point. Bullish Scenario: Should the index manage to sustain a position above 6880.50, a decisive break above 6892.00 would likely drive prices towards 6936.25, a key resistance level. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a confirmed drop below 6817.50 would pave the way for a test of 6800.00 initially. If sellers maintain their grip on the market, further declines to 6767.75 and 6733.75 may follow. A++ Setup 1 (Rejection Fade short from the upper shelf) Entry: 6887.00-6891.75 Hard SL: 6896.25 TP1: 6863.50 TP2: 6849.75 TP3: 6834.50 A++ Setup 2 (Acceptance Continuation short under PDL) Entry: 6814.50-6817.25 Hard SL: 6823.75 TP1: 6800.00 TP2: 6767.75 TP3: 6733.75 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Thu (Dec 18)TOMORROW EVENT STACK (ET) 07:00 - Bank of England rate decision + statement 04:00 - Norges Bank rate decision (Norway) 08:15 - ECB policy statement release 08:30 - CPI (Nov) + Real Earnings (Nov) 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 - Philly Fed Manufacturing (Dec) 08:30 - ECB press conference begins (adds FX noise, CPI still dominates ES) High-impact window: The peak whip risk occurs from 08:30 to 08:45 ET. After the market opens at 09:30, it often either continues the 08:30 trend or reverses back to fair value. October CPI Release and Its Implications The absence of the October CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduces significant complexity to the upcoming November CPI release. Notably, the November figures will omit certain one-month percent changes due to the missing October data. This gap is likely to lead to increased volatility in market reactions, as traders may rely more heavily on year-over-year comparisons and overarching narratives. It's important to emphasize that this presents a data-quality risk rather than a straightforward price forecast. Current projections from Reuters indicate a CPI rise of 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%. Additionally, core CPI is expected to mirror this 0.3% monthly change, while the year-over-year core figure is anticipated to remain at 3.0%. These benchmarks represent the market's baseline, and any significant deviation—either a miss or beat—could trigger a pronounced market reaction. Navigating Market Dynamics: A Practical Guide for E-mini S&P Traders - Hot Scenario: A core CPI increase of 0.4% or more, or any unexpected data that raises inflation concerns, is likely to drive yields upward. In this case, E-mini S&P futures may see selling pressure on initial rebounds, as traders react to renewed inflation fears and test support levels. - Cool Scenario: Conversely, if the core CPI prints at 0.2% or below, or if there’s a clear downside surprise against expectations, we might witness a drop in yields. This scenario could facilitate a breakout for E-mini S&P futures, allowing for upward progression through resistance levels as shorts are squeezed. - In-Line Scenario: The market may react chaotically to the initial news, but typically, direction stabilizes upon the first pullback following the 09:30 cash market open. To ensure effective trading during the CPI release, adhere to the following guidelines: 1. Avoid initiating new positions in the final 60 seconds leading up to the 08:30 release. 2. Establish four key reference points: the high and low of the pre-CPI trading range (08:20-08:29) and the high and low resulting from the CPI spike (08:30-08:33). These levels frequently serve as pivotal points for price action during the first 30 to 90 minutes of trading post-release. By keeping these dynamics in mind, traders can better navigate the potentially tumultuous waters of the upcoming CPI announcement. Market Analysis: Short-Term Outlook In the broader context, the recent trading action suggests a failure to maintain momentum after reaching the upper resistance band. The most recent price structure indicates a downward trend, with the market currently trading below key resistance levels. For upcoming sessions, this is critical; any attempts at upward movement will need to overcome the 6821-6835 range to signify a genuine reversal rather than mere corrective action. On the 4-hour timeframe, we observe a distinct sell-off followed by a consolidation phase. There are several resistance zones left untested from the recent decline, which could hinder any potential rallies. The immediate resistance is located between 6812 and 6821, with a higher barrier at 6835. Should the price exceed 6835, it might have the potential to rally toward the 6865-6882 range. The 1-hour perspective reveals a classic pattern characterized by a sharp decline followed by a basing phase. Notably, trading volume surged during the sell-off before tapering as prices stabilized near the close. This dynamic sets the stage for either a rebound toward immediate resistance levels or a further decline if the established support fails. The oscillator is currently in a deeply oversold position, registering in the low teens and beginning to show signs of a potential upward turn. This development suggests some bounce potential, although it does not guarantee a trend reversal on its own. A credible shift in trend will require the price to reclaim the R1 resistance and maintain levels above R2. Overnight Market Outlook: NY Session Forecast Base Case Scenario (Pre-CPI): Anticipate a period of rotational trading between support level S2 at 6775.50 and resistance range R1 at 6812-6821. Bullish Scenario: Should the market hold at S2, a reclaim of R1 would be crucial. A successful transition of R2 (6835) from a resistance level to a support floor could propel prices toward R3 (6865-6871), with the potential to reach 6882.50 if bullish momentum remains strong. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the market slips below S2 and fails to reclaim the 6775.50 level, we could see a decline towards S3 at 6762, with a further slide to 6733.50 if selling pressure intensifies. A++ Setup 1 - Short Position (Rejection at Resistance Level 1) Entry Criteria: Monitor the market for a minimum of 30 minutes. The ideal entry is between 6816.00 and 6821.00. - Stop Loss (SL): 6838.00 - Take Profit (TP) Targets: - TP1: 6775.50 - TP2: 6762.00 - TP3: 6733.50 **Invalidation Point:** The setup will be invalidated if price sustains above 6835.00. A++ Setup 2 - Long Position (Continuation through Resistance Level 2) Entry Criteria: Again, monitor for a duration of at least 30 minutes. The target entry range is between 6830.00 and 6836.00. - Stop Loss (SL): 6818.50 - Take Profit (TP) Targets: - TP1: 6871.25 - TP2: 6882.50 - TP3: 6936.25 Invalidation Point: The trade will be considered invalid if there is a decisive drop back below 6821.50 after the reclaim action. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Dec 16th) As we head into Tuesday, ES is showing signs of structural weakness following a significant sell-off, culminating in a late dip into the 6845-6840 demand zone. The prevailing trend appears to be downward as long as prices remain beneath the resistance range of 6863-6874. However, the 6845-6840 support still has the potential to trigger a rebound. Traders should anticipate the most decisive price action around major data releases, followed by a phased, level-to-level approach in trading strategy. EVENTS THAT CAN MOVE ES (ET) 2:00am UK labor data 3:15am-5:00am Eurozone PMI batch + ZEW sentiment window 8:30am US jobs data bundle + Retail Sales + Earnings + Unemployment 9:45am US Flash PMI 10:00am Business Inventories 4:30pm API oil stats (can hit energy tone into the close) Market Outlook: NY Session Forecast In the upcoming New York trading session, we anticipate a period of consolidation likely to include a modest rebound attempt. However, this upside movement is expected to face resistance within the range of 6859 and 6863-6874. Should sellers maintain pressure and keep prices below 6863 as we head into the session, we could see a subsequent pullback towards the 6845-6840 range, followed by a potential drop to 6825. On the bullish side, if the market can decisively reclaim and sustain levels above 6874, we might open the door for a rally towards 6902 and possibly 6923. Conversely, a clear breach below 6840 that lacks immediate recovery signals strengthens the bearish outlook, targeting 6825 initially, with the potential for a further decline to 6800-6790. ES Short (A++) - Sell 6863-6874 - SL 6876.50 - TP1 6845-6840 TP2 6825 TP3 6800-6790 Key zones Support - 6845-6840, 6825, 6800-6790 Resistance - 6851-6859, 6863-6874, 6902, 6923-6936 A++ Setup 1 - Short (ceiling fade) Entry - Sell 6863-6866 after a rejection from 6863-6874 Stop - 6876.50 (above the rejection high) TP1 - 6845-6840 TP2 - 6825 TP3 - 6800-6790 ES Long (A++) - Buy 6825 reclaim - SL 6814.25 - TP1 6863 TP2 6902 TP3 6923 A++ Setup 2 - Long (flush then reclaim) Entry - Buy 6825-6828 only after price reclaims and holds above 6825 Stop - 6814.25 (below the flush low) TP1 - 6863 TP2 - 6902 TP3 - 6923 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES - December 19th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 19th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:15am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We are currently in a range between 6771-6870 with 6820-22 being the bull/bear line. Today is OPEX and trading can be difficult on most OPEX days as we typically will not get much follow through and is a key reason you need to pick your levels, wait for the flush and reclaim, enter and manage the trade up to the next level. The overnight low is 6820 and the overnight high is 6853. This range and breakout or breakdown should determine the direction of the next leg that we have been consolidating for. I have mentioned many times this week that we are still in a downtrend until we can break above and hold 6892. If we lose 6800, we will most likely need to retest the lows of the range. Key Levels Today 1. 6835 - Flush and Reclaim (Lower Quality) 2. 6822 - Flush and Reclaim (Liquidity is dwindling in this level) 3. 6771 - Flush and Reclaim (Highest Quality) 4. 6747 - Flush and Reclaim (High Quality if we break lower) Below 6771 and 6747 is the next level I would look to engage. I do not like OPEX days and it is imperative not to overtrade or trade inside the noise. Everything between 6853-6820 is pure chop. Below or above and it should take us in that direction. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - December 16th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 16th- Daily Trade Plan - 5:50am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. March is roughly 60pts above December and is why yesterday's levels prices are way different than today's. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Since we are using the new contract levels, I will keep today simple and not discuss yesterday as it may be confusing. Overnight high is 6883 and our Overnight low is 6833. Yesterday our low was 6865 and as I am typing this trade plan, price is currently trying to clear and hold the 6865 level. When looking at price you can see that we are in a downtrend and price needs to clear 6929 to continue to move higher. Key Levels Today - 1. 6865 - Flush and Reclaim 2. 6833-37 - Flush and Reclaim 3. 6812 - Flush and Reclaim 4. 6792 - Flush and Reclaim Below 6833 and we should get a decent bounce at 6812, we will most likely find a better low around the 6792 level. We have Employment Data coming out at 8:30am EST. I will post an update once we see the reaction. I will most likely not find any trading opportunities until after the NYSE open but will focus on price action and the levels in my plan. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
1
ES - December 22nd - Daily Trade PlanDecember 22nd- Daily Trade Plan - 7:20am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We had a nice move on Friday and broke above the key level of 6892 when we gapped up at the open last night. The overnight session low is 6900 and the overnight high is 6914. This is a very tight range and ideally today and tomorrow we can get some volatility before low volume session on Wednesday and Friday. Key Levels Today - 1. 6900 - Flush and Reclaim (Possibly close the gap at 6892 and then reclaim) 2. 6882 - Flush and Reclaim (lower quality) 3. 6869 - Flush and Reclaim (lower quality) 4. 6834 - Flush and Reclaim 5. 6822 - Flush and Reclaim We are in a tough spot with price near the high of the session. We need some volatility, and I do not know if we will get enough for price to flush down to Friday's low. If price loses 6869, I will get out the way and let it find a level below. If price clears 6914 prior to the NYSE open, I would be cautious on chasing and would wait for price to come back to levels discussed above with the gap closure of 6892 being the first target and reclaim of overnight low at 6900 being a good spot to keep price moving higher. If price is selling off pretty hard, I would just be patient and see where price wants to find a low. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Consensus Pays Off (If You’re Careful)The S&P 500 is closing out another strong year. Year to date performance is up 16%, despite a recent slowdown over the past month. A 16% annual gain is notable and exceeds the S&P 500’s 25-year average return, even though it trails the outsized rallies of the past two years. Looking Back at 2025 This year’s rally has been driven by a narrow group of sectors, while others have lagged the benchmark. Year to date, only the AMEX:XLK (Technology), AMEX:XLC (Communication Services), and AMEX:XLI (Industrials) select sector ETFs have outperformed the broader S&P 500. A common thread across these sectors is their exposure to the AI theme. Heavy AI related capital spending has fuelled gains throughout the year, despite recent concerns around elevated valuations. The XLC (Communication) highlights Alphabet and Meta as its top holdings, both key beneficiaries of the AI rally. The XLK (Technology) is led by market heavyweights such as VANTAGE:NVIDIA , ERRANTE:APPLE , ERRANTE:MICROSOFT , and NASDAQ:AVGO (Broadcom). Notably, strength in the XLI (Industrials) is also tied to AI spending. The infrastructure behind large scale AI data centers, along with the construction equipment needed to build them, comes from major ETF constituents such as $Caterpillar and GE Vernova. In contrast, sectors including AMEX:XLRE (Real Estate), AMEX:XLE (Energy), and AMEX:XLP (Consumer Staples) have posted largely flat performance. This reflects sector-specific headwinds such as softer consumer spending, tariff effects, a slowing housing market, and lower oil prices. Sector selection is clearly crucial. While many investors search for potential undervaluation, aligning with the prevailing market consensus can at times deliver stronger results. At the start of 2025, most analysts were broadly bullish, with forecasts pointing to 5% to 15% equity growth and a consensus near 10%. Mint Finance highlighted several of these outlooks in an earlier paper . In practice, equities outperformed even the upper end of these forecasts, despite a volatile year. Analysts also entered the year expecting further gains in technology, driven by AI. As noted in a State Street report earlier this year, “This suggests that investors continue to expect a narrow US, tech, large cap, quality led equity rally. And this is our base case, as well.” That base case has played out, with large cap technology stocks leading market performance. Similarly, JP Morgan made an early call on rising power demand, highlighting opportunities in power generation and infrastructure. The firm noted, “Overall, we expect power demand growth in the United States to increase by 5x to 7x over the next 3 to 5 years. Investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for power can focus on broad infrastructure funds, power generation, and utility companies.” This theme has been reflected in strong performance from industrial names such as Caterpillar and GE Vernova. While maintaining a balanced perspective is important, following a well-supported consensus view can help investors track closer to benchmark performance. Combining this approach with prudent hedging as conditions change can offer a simple and effective strategy. Hold Consensus, Deploy Hedges While the consensus view looks to have panned out in hindsight, it wasn’t a straightforward rally. Sharp drawdowns, such as the one in April, would have made the position loss-making with the magnitude of losses (-20%) exceeding many common risk tolerances. Alternatively, a simple hedging approach using MES futures to implement a beta hedged short can result in a more resilient portfolio. The analysis applies a short position of one MES futures contract when MACD signals bearish momentum. While the strategy creates a modest drag on overall performance, its benefits during drawdowns are clear. It reduces downside risk by 12% to 14%, at the cost of only 3% to 4% of upside performance. For example, in the analysis, a hedge is first deployed on 21 February after the MACD turns negative. This involves initiating a short position in MES March futures at an entry level of 6,029. The hedge is maintained until the MACD turns positive on 19 March, at which point the position is exited at 5,729. This results in a profit of USD 1,500 ((6,029 - 5,729) x 5). Similar hedges are implemented each time the MACD signals a shift to negative momentum. While this approach could be further refined by incorporating additional risk signals, even a simple MACD based strategy delivers a clearly improved payoff profile compared to an unhedged position. For reference, the hedged portfolios also exhibit meaningfully higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios. What Looks Interesting In 2026 Looking forward to 2026, buy side analysts have started to highlight that opportunities outside of technology may be more lucrative as the rally gets stretched. Within AI, beneficiaries should continue to broaden out from the innovators (tech) to the enablers (industrials, utilities) and the adopters (financials, health care). Traditional value sectors like energy and consumer staples may continue to struggle due to low oil prices and a deteriorating low-end consumer spending, while financials boast resilient earnings and differentiated catalysts like deregulation and yield curve steepening. ~ JPM 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook The adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI), tax incentives, deregulation and shrinking public-sector employment will likely lead to a productivity boom. (O/W U.S. Equities, O/W U.S. Industrial Policy Beneficiaries, O/W AI Adopters (Defense), O/W Bank Loans, O/W U.S. Regional Banks) ~ Morgan Stanley 2026 Outlook While Industrials and utilities look like a solid consensus bet to benefit from increasing CAPEX, we can assess additional metrics across sector ETFs, including analyst forecast upside, technical ratings, and recent fund flow trends. Based on analyst price targets reported by TipRanks, the highest upside is seen in XLK at 21.9% and XLC at 17.5%. Outside of technology, XLRE at 16.6% and XLU at 15.8% also offer notable upside potential. From a technical perspective, XLF stands out with a strong buy rating on the one-week timeframe, indicating a recent acceleration in momentum. In contrast, XLK, XLRE, and XLU, despite favourable analyst upside, are currently showing weaker technical signals, with ratings below Buy. Fund flow data over the past month shows sizable inflows into XLI (Industrials) and XLV (Healthcare), suggesting active rotation into these sectors. Meanwhile, XLB (Materials) and XLF (Financials) have experienced notable outflows, pointing to capital rotation away from these areas. Taken together, these indicators and analyst consensus forecasts for 2026 suggest that XLI (Industrials), XLC (Communication Services), and XLU (Utilities) stand out as top sector candidates. While meaningful upside may still exist in XLK (Technology) and XLRE (Real Estate), both appear more fragile, with technology facing valuation concerns and real estate dependent on an uncertain recovery. To implement a consensus based hedged strategy similar to the one outlined, traders could take long positions of 209 units of XLI, 284 units of XLC, or 1,178 units of XLU. These position sizes allow for effective beta hedging using CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures. The figures are based on ETF market prices as of 15 December. To calculate these values independently, the following formula can be used: Units equivalent to the notional represented by a Micro E mini S&P 500 futures contract = (MES futures price × 5) ÷ ETF price ÷ ETF beta This approach ensures that ETF exposure is appropriately sized relative to the futures hedge. Alternatively, traders could replicate the hedges directly using CME’s suite of equity index sector futures. Futures contracts are available for the sector ETFs discussed, as well as for additional select industry and broader equity indices. These instruments can be used in several ways. First, they can replicate long ETF exposure with lower capital requirements. The maintenance margin on these contracts allows traders to deploy positions up to 20 times larger with the same amount of capital. Second, they enable more precise hedging. Rather than adjusting MES futures by the beta of each sector, traders can use the corresponding sector futures to create more exact hedges aligned with the underlying exposure. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
ES - December 17th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 17th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:35am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We are pretty much at the same place we were yesterday when I started typing up my daily trade plan. The key difference is that we have been consolidating into a massive overhead resistance trend line at the 6882 level. Our overnight low is 6838 and our overnight high is 6882. I stated yesterday that when looking at price you can see that we are in a downtrend and price needs to clear 6929 to continue to move higher. I wrote yesterday on the 10:58am - Update "Price respected 6845 and has rallied into the 6862-65 resistance. I would not be chasing at this level. Price needs to cool off and build a base above 6847 for price to continue higher. At this point, I need price to come back and lose 6833 and reclaim 6839 for me to look at my last trade of the day. 6822, 6812, 6795 are key levels below today's low if price wants to flush lower." Price did give us this exact move in the afternoon, we lost 6833 down to 6817, reclaimed the 6822 level and short squeezed higher. I missed this trade as I was away from my desk but did get a solid trade in yesterday morning. We are looking for similar levels today to get some points from. Price may continue to move higher without much of a pullback today. Price really needs to hold 6838 or we will most likely retest 6822 and potentially lose that level. 6864 is first support down and any flush and reclaim should give us a good bounce. Key levels Today 1. 6864 - Flush and Reclaim (maybe down to 6858ish) 2. 6851 - Flush and Reclaim 3. 6838 - Flush and Reclaim 4. 6822 - Flush and Reclaim Below these levels and price should put in a decent sell off and I will be looking at 6812, 6795, 6766 as key levels to get a bounce. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - December 18th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 18th- Daily Trade Plan - 5:50am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- While yesterday we had some actionable levels, price was trading very quickly, and it did not have much follow through. I wrote on the 10:55am - Update "When price is selling off, we do not need to rush in. If price does not act like it wants to hold a key level after it has been reclaimed (5-10 mins of showing price wants to hold the key level) then no need to rush in for a trade. Personally, I like to give it enough time to show its hand because if it rips 40pts I can find a level above that I can enter. Trying to pick a bottom will drain your account. Typically, when price sells below the overnight low and the previous day low, I let price decide when it wants to find a good bottom. As of typing, 6800, 6777 could be key levels that could give us a short squeeze." Tuesday's low was 6822 and while there was a big battle at the 6838-40 level, we finally lost it down and price flushed lower while building a nice base overnight. You can see that price found its daily low at 6776.25 (.75 below the key level I provided above) It is important to look at overnight price action as we are currently in a very clear failed breakdown of yesterday's low. We flushed the 6776 level overnight down to 6771 around 10:30pm and then reclaimed that level and we have been moving higher since. The overnight low is 6771 and overnight high is 6808 as of typing this daily plan. Immediate support is 6795 and today should be pretty straightforward on levels we can grab points. The challenge will not be easy... WHY? It is CPI at 8:30am EST and this economic event can move price 100+ points either direction. I will be waiting to see what price does between 8:30am-9:30am and will be patient to see how price opens up in the first 15 mins. As I have stated all week, we continue to be in a downtrend and the recovery of 6864, 6882 should change the current trend. Until then we need to focus on price action and key levels we can grab some points. Key Levels Today - 1. 6795 - Flush and Reclaim 2. 6784 - Flush and Reclaim (Overnight micro level) 3. 6776 - Flush and Reclaim There are some obvious levels reclaims at 6808, 6822, 6840 but price needs to clear 6840 to give it a chance to go higher. These levels that are reclaimed, the back test and hold of those levels should produce some points. The first obvious setup should we get it prior to 8:30am is the flush and reclaim of 6795 (maybe down to 6788-90). Price built a nice base overnight at 6784 and this should be an actionable level. Below 6771 and 6748 is the next best level to wait for a flush and recovery. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
1
ES UpdateNQ should hit oversold tomorrow, the question is whether or not ES and RTY also have to hit oversold before the market bounces. Open gap above, but that will fill eventually when Supreme Court nullifies Trump's tariffs. Took a chance and went long on GM calls this afternoon, held it because of the EOD pump. Could be a mistake holding calls when I know the market is headed down, but GM seems to be doing its own thing and melting up. Didn't really track the market at all today. In any case, futures are red, and I'll go long on other stocks when ES hits oversold.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
ES (SPX, SPY) Week-ahead Analysis (Dec 22-26)This week is notably shortened due to the holiday, resulting in thinner liquidity and heightened volatility. Market participants should prepare for an early close on Wednesday, December 24, with the markets remaining shut on Thursday, December 25. Normal trading hours will resume on Friday, December 26. Investors should approach breakouts with caution, demanding clearer confirmations at critical levels and exercising stricter time stops. Multi-Timeframe Analysis (ES) Weekly Overview: The broader trend remains upward, suggesting that the larger swing is constructive; however, prices are testing a weekly supply cap near recent highs, entering a premium zone. Momentum has tempered from previous peaks, raising the risk of a "grind and fade" scenario rather than a straightforward continuation. The market is currently experiencing a rebound leg, yet it is now hitting a daily supply band overhead, where previous selling pressure originated. Upside potential is limited by the upper band near prior highs, while downside risk is anchored by the last swing base and value areas below. The most recent movement displays an impulsive rally from a base, followed by a controlled pause - though it does not indicate a full reversal at this stage. As long as pullbacks remain above the recently established reclaim shelf (mid to high 6800s), current price action is indicative of "healthy digestion." A breach below this shelf could signal a deeper correction. 1-Hour Context (Intraday): Prices are currently positioned in the upper range of the recent trading day, approaching key overhead levels. This presents a pivotal moment for either a breakout continuation or a potential failure. Momentum/Oscillator Analysis (Weekly + Daily): - Weekly Perspective: Momentum is currently in a neutral zone—not excessively overbought, yet not undervalued either - as it has eased from earlier peak levels. - Daily Perspective: Momentum has improved off the lows and is showing upward curvature, indicating that dips are being supported; however, the presence of overhead supply may lead to rapid stalls in momentum. The key trend delineation, or "line in the sand," for market observers currently stands at 6760. For trading positions resting above this benchmark, any pullbacks can still be classified as "corrections within an overarching uptrend." This suggests that the bullish sentiment remains intact as long as the market holds above this critical threshold. Conversely, a decisive move below 6760 - particularly if there’s acceptance level would signal potential damage to the rebound narrative, indicating that the market is showcasing areas of diminished demand. NQ Intraday Reference Map: For the Nasdaq (NQ), immediate resistance is noted between 25600 and 25645, aligning with prior highs and current push zones, followed by further resistance at 25800 to 26000, which serves as the next magnet zone for traders. On the support side, key levels to watch include 25592 to 25568, which represents a value shelf, descending to the levels of 25504, and further extending to 25393 to 25357, marking the prior day’s low pocket. Should the market breach these levels, the overnight low at 25210 will be significant in assessing downward momentum. Volatility Metrics Overview VIX Analysis The VIX has been trading in the mid-teens recently, with a notable decline observed late last week, indicating a growing risk appetite among investors, albeit with a continued sensitivity to market headlines. FRED's latest reported close was at 16.87 on December 18. However, a subsequent market data feed indicated a significant drop on December 19, with a low/close around 14.91. The takeaway here is that a lower VIX tends to support dip-buying strategies; however, sudden spikes in the VIX during a holiday week often result in sharp mean-reversions. Rates Volatility - MOVE Index The MOVE index is currently sitting at approximately 59, indicating a low-to-moderate level of stress in the rates market. This suggests that there is no acute funding stress present, which typically supports equities by mitigating the risk of disorderly sell-offs. Tail Risk Pricing - SKEW Index The SKEW index remains elevated in the mid-150s range. This suggests that while the market is not experiencing daily panic, investors are willing to pay a premium for crash insurance, indicating a cautious approach to tail risks. Options and Positioning The put/call ratios indicate a measured market sentiment, with the total put/call ratio currently at approximately 0.88 (based on a 10-day moving average), suggesting a balanced approach rather than extreme fear. On a daily basis, the total put/call ratio hovers around 0.86, while the equity put/call ratio is more subdued at about 0.59. From a qualitative perspective, the VIX trading in the mid-teens, coupled with stable put/call ratios, suggests that dealers are likely positioned closer to long gamma in this range, indicating potential for pinning and mean-reversion behavior unless an external macro catalyst disrupts the current balance. This observation, while not rooted in explicit positioning reports, draws from the context provided by volatility and options data. Market Breadth and Internals The NYSE breadth snapshot reveals a positive market internal dynamic, with 1,424 advancing issues versus 1,338 declining, yielding a net advance of 86. The McClellan Oscillator stands at approximately +12.8, indicating that market breadth is not experiencing significant deterioration. Current data suggests we are witnessing a “minor wobble/digestion” phase rather than a full-blown distribution cascade. Credit and Funding Environment In the realm of credit markets, US high yield option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are around 2.95%, indicating a tight and orderly credit environment. The NAV of HYG is approximately 80.24, while JNK trades close to 96.82. These observations suggest that the credit markets are not currently signaling a risk-off narrative. However, any rapid widening of spreads may be interpreted as an indicator of shifting sentiment toward a more cautious stance. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning The latest reading from the AAII survey reflects a balanced sentiment landscape, with about 44% bullish, 23% neutral, and 33% bearish positions. This lack of overwhelming fear suggests reduced potential for a sustained market squeeze driven solely by under-positioning, unless the price action returns decisively above previous highs. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone In the cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin is trading around $88,600, while Ethereum is near $3,000. This firmness in crypto typically aligns with a risk-on sentiment but may also serve as a precursor to heightened volatility should macro developments arise. Lastly, recent trading has showcased strength in the Nasdaq and tech sectors. Should the Nasdaq (NQ) begin to underperform relative to the S&P 500 (ES) at these elevated levels, it may serve as an early warning signal for a potential fade in risk appetite. MACRO AND DATA-CALENDAR (EVENT RISK) Key US Economic Releases This Week (ET) Monday, December 22 No significant economic data scheduled for release. Tuesday, December 23 - 8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (delayed due to government shutdown) - 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders (also delayed) - 10:00 AM: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Wednesday, December 24** *(Early market close at 1:00 PM ET) - 8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, December 25 Markets will be closed in observance of Christmas. Friday, December 26 Markets will reopen with normal hours; however, no notable economic data is scheduled for release. Event Impact Analysis: - GDP and Durable Goods: Historically, these releases can lead to rapid volatility spikes, potentially mean-reverting if prices remain confined within established ranges. A breakout, however, could serve as fuel for further trends, particularly if it breaks through resistance levels R2/R3 or support levels S3/S4. Good Luck !!! - **Consumer Confidence:** This indicator typically influences equity markets based on growth expectations. A key point of analysis will be the NASDAQ index's reaction, which can provide a clearer picture of risk-on sentiment. - **Jobless Claims on Early-Close Day:** Expect an increase in volatility, as lower liquidity may lead to exaggerated initial moves, potentially setting traps for traders. As always, we advise close monitoring of these releases for potential market implications and trends.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
SP500 Remains Bullish After The FED MeetingS&P 500 has made a very nice retracement recently; in fact for almost the whole November we have seen a pullback of around 5 to 6%, which is quite a lot for the S&P 500, and what is really important is that the market has stopped around the 6500 area, which basically goes back to October 10th when we saw a massive sell-off on that Friday when Trump threatened with new tariffs on China. But afterwards, as you can see, the market recovered, so it looks like a very beautiful rebound from that zone with impulsive characteristics, even beyond the diagonal and trendline resistance lines. This likely confirms that bulls are ready to resume higher into a potential fifth wave, which can be made by a new lower-degree five-wave bullish cycle. Ideally, new trend will resume soon after the current setback that can be flat in wave 2, so be aware of a bullish continuation into all-time highs and 7k are, possibly still this month.  After the FED meeting last week, we can see it making an irregular flat correction in wave (2) that can find the support at 6800 area, so soon be aware of a bullish resumption within wave (3).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by ew-forecast
1
ES UpdateLooks like all we get is a morning pump from inflation numbers. I bought and flipped some GM calls in the morning because it didn't gap up like everything else. Noticed that the movement was slower than usual so I flipped it on the gap fill (yesterday morning's gap). Glad I did. If you look at the intraday chart, you'll also notice it had resistance in the morning, and that's never a good sign, so I bought and flipped some IBIT (shitcoin) puts as well, lol. Probably should have bought some puts EOD, oh well. Futures now red.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo