NQ Short (12-09-25)Basically same idea as Monday, not expecting much until Fed Decision. The O/N did use some failed auctions to pump the NAZ above nearside Danger Zone of 25,620-40 to upper resistance and KL 25,735, we are back under DZ at this time. Range today may be 630-730 for next move should the NAZ stay above 25,580, under play lower KL's.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures
No trades
Trade ideas
NQ Short (12-12-25)25,623 is Mid Level of recent range, we have seen 2 Long Trap lock ins that drop after Reg Session BTD/FOMO lifts into now a Gap open and lower O/N Session. Sometimes the Gut Feeling Indicator is the best. Orange TL seems to be the KL to watch. Yellow is lower and White is higher, the Edge Trades in opposite direction are working until a breakout. Looking for the same play today and waiting for the BTD/FOMO crowd to bail, I am pretty sure that Santa, Easter Bunny and Plus Plus Plus Plus Plus are not real.
NQ Short (12-11-25)The yellow arrow is from my Monday Post, the Short Trade at KL 828 was a classic Edge Trade in the opposite direction at a Key Level. NAZ move back to mid level of the 1,000 point Churn Zone. Just felt that balance would show up and recent weak PA up was setting up a Long Trap. The Orange TL is what to watch and started back on 10/22. NAZ may rotate around, short under and long above. IDS27 view below
NASDAQ 100 (NQ1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buys Only!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Dec. 8 - 15th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ is showing bullish order flow, and it has been strong over the past couple of weeks.
Trading above 25,600 is making looking for shorts a no no.
A weakened US Dollar supports the idea of higher prices.
Wait for valid buy setups.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NQ1! (Nasdaq 100) has entered the terminal phaseThe Nasdaq 100 has entered the terminal phase of its 20 day institutional dealing range and is currently executing a distribution program within the premium quartile. The failure to sustain price acceptance above the 25,700.00 Volume Imbalance suggests the algorithm is preparing for a mean reversion event to rebalance the monthly ledger.
The present price action represents a classic 'Bull Trap' at the upper boundary of the range where retail momentum is being absorbed by institutional limit sell orders ahead of a repricing to equilibrium.
Entry: 25,550.00 (Sell Limit)
Stop loss: 25,880.00 (330.00 points)
Take profit: 24,850.00 (700.00 points)
Risk to reward ratio: 2.12R
CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ
The Opportunity
The 20 day IPDA lookback reveals that price is oscillating within a defined premium distribution block between 25,350.00 and 25,850.00. The market has expended significant energy to reach this valuation but has failed to close the daily candles above the key Volume Imbalance at 25,700.00.
This rejection signature implies that the 'Santa Rally' narrative has been utilized to engineer exit liquidity for smart money positions accumulated at the lows. The algorithm is an efficiency engine and it cannot justify a new macro expansion leg without first revisiting the internal range equilibrium to capitalize the move.
The Entry
Initiating a short position in the 25,550.00 to 25,600.00 zone aligns with the institutional logic of selling the upper 25% of the monthly range. This zone offers the highest statistical edge as it places the entry directly against the 'Ceiling' of the current volatility profile while targeting the 'Floor' of the recent expansion.
The Volume Imbalance acts as a natural defensive barrier for the stop loss as the algorithm will typically respect this array during a distribution phase.
The Invalidation
The bearish causal chain is ontologically corrupted if price achieves a daily close above the 25,880.00 range high. Such an event would signify a 'Blue Sky' breakout and a shift in regime from range bound to trending.
If the market accepts price above this threshold it implies that the premium valuation has become the new floor and the algorithm is targeting the 26,000.00 psychological level.
Key Trajectory Waypoints
Target 1: 25,350.00 | Type: 75% Range Quartile | Probability: 70% | ETA: 24 Hours
Target 2: 24,850.00 | Type: Range Equilibrium (50%) | Probability: 60% | ETA: 2-3 Days
Target 3: 24,400.00 | Type: NWOG / Discount Target | Probability: 40% | ETA: Next Week
The Shadow Reality
A 35% probability exists for the antithetical reality: The Range Expansion.
In this scenario the current consolidation is a 'High Tight Flag' and the algorithm ignores the equilibrium requirement to force a squeeze into the 26,000.00 level immediately.
This reality is confirmed if price holds above 25,650.00 for two consecutive 4 hour closes.
Short NQLaunched an anchored VWAP from the swing low (11/21/25 pre-mkt):
-Traded constructively (finding support above the +1 deviation band) for about 17 trading days
-Lost steam, started trading below +1 dev band; support became resistance (Mon 12/8 pre-mkt)
-Fell below VWAP this morning (Fri 12/12 10am-ish)
.....and until it escapes that red box, it's a short for me.
Short NQ
Alt Trading: Asia Fib Strategy Long, NQ1, December 8th 2025With this long I want to systematically exploit the overnight Asia range instead of just marking it and guessing. I waited for a liquidity sweep of the Asia low, followed by price entering the standard deviation fib -2 to -2.5 range. Then a long confirmation on the invalidation of a bearish iFVG. Setting my risk SL and TP to respect higher timeframe key liquidity levels 💪
FuturesOne ORB, Long, NQ1, HTF Bias EntryFor this Idea, I am looking at a Long on NQ1.
Price has already wicked the ORB high,
and are in a bullish bias this morning based
on my HTF analysis, so I am predicting we
will see price move back up, CLOSE above the
FuturesOne ORB high and I would enter a long
trade on the close.
SL at a recent low within the ORB range, and TP
at a HTF key liquidity level I determined.
TX ICT/SMC Based NQ1 Short, Liquidity level based SL,TPI am looking at at a short position after a retracement back into the POI range. Before this I saw technical analysis confirmations with a double sweep of liquidity, BOX, and short signal however I like to wait for confirmation before entering based on the TX ICT/SMC Indicator logic. TP, recent high, SL recent low liquidity level.
NQ Short (12-08-25)NAZ is barley alive and showing signs of slowing to the upside, while kicking out some very quick 100-200 drop test bombs. NDX may need to gap fill at 25,898 and we could see an M with decent drop test (Fed Day would work). On NQ it is looking like Turn Zone at 26k or so. After the drop test and final 2 weeks of the year, we may look Long with low volume PA & Mr. Retail and his BTD strategy. This may set up a better Short in 2026.
NDX YRD
NQ UpdateMFI touching oversold and RSI is close.
I did not short anything Friday because it might hit oversold Sunday night and reverse up. Also, Supreme Court decision on tariffs could happen as soon as this week, though most are anticipating end of the month or possibly Jan.
The market will pop big when it happens and wipe out puts in minutes, so I'm just going long when things get oversold.
Looking at three of Bobby's marketsNovember 8th we looked at three of Bobby's markets plus Tesla. Bobby's markets are the smaller contracts which are the way you want to trade until you're comfortable with a larger contracts< I didn't state this but if you're inclined to trade more than one contract it may be much more prudent to trade the smaller contracts anyway as long as they have enough volatility. I have a real neat idea and I don't want to talk about it but I'm looking into something that I do not normally do but I'm going to make a decision I'm going to include a strategy for the equity markets..... Tesla would be an example of what I would be looking at and trade if I find certain setups. I haven't traded equity markets for well over 2 decades.... But it is something I might consider and if I do make that decision I will be very clear on the reasons... The tools I use the decisions I make are absolutely representative of what I'm doing. I don't need your money, I don't want your money.... I will show you what I'm doing and what I'm thinking and I will never tell you to take a trade because I don't want your lawsuit. So stay tuned.
MNQ (1H)The chart displays Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (MNQ) on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a completed bullish move followed by a bearish reversal and continuation setup.
Price initially formed a strong impulsive bullish leg (green solid line), indicating aggressive buying pressure and a clear upside expansion. This move was followed by distribution and topping behavior, where price failed to make meaningful continuation higher and began to show signs of exhaustion near the highs.
After the top was established, price transitioned into a bearish impulse (red dashed line), signaling a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. The breakdown through prior support confirms bearish continuation rather than a simple pullback.
The orange horizontal level marks a key support-turned-resistance zone, which acts as the breakout level. Once price broke below this level, it validated short-side control and provided a high-probability continuation entry.
The projected move targets the 24,884.75 area, derived from the measured move of the prior impulse leg. The shaded red/green zone illustrates the risk to reward profile, showing limited upside risk relative to downside potential.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
Mastering the Morning Breakout: The New York 15m/30m ORB SetupThe first 15-30 minutes of the market are often pure chaos for novices, but for professionals, it is where the day's structure is built.
The **Opening Range Breakout (ORB)** works because it defines the "Initial Balance"—the battleground where buyers and sellers fight for control. Once price breaks this zone with conviction, it often signals the true trend for the rest of the session.
**The Problem:**
Most traders fail at the open because they chase volatility. They enter on wicks, get trapped by fake-outs, or miscalculate their levels manually.
**The Solution (Chart Breakdown):**
In this NQ example, we strip away the noise and focus on pure structure:
1. **Define the Battlefield:** We let the first 15 minutes pass, or 30 minutes if you wish to wait for more confirmation.
2. **Wait for range to form** Notice the breakout. We don't guess. We wait for a **Candle CLOSE** outside the box.
3. **The Trigger:** The "BULL/BEAR" label only appears when buyers have proven they can hold price above or below the range. This filters out the "wicks" that stop out early shorts.
4. **Precision Targets:** Instead of guessing where to take profit, we use the 1x and 2x measured moves based on the range's own volatility.
**Why this approach saves accounts:**
It forces objectivity. By automating the levels and waiting for the confirmed break, you remove the emotional "FOMO" that ruins morning sessions. You aren't predicting the move; you are executing on confirmed momentum.
*This setup is running on a free community tool. You can add it to your chart using the link below to automate your own morning levels.*
Algo's Logic: Why price moves ''crazy'' with red folder news?WHY PRICE MOVES LIKE THIS
The market is not a chaotic auction of buyers and sellers seeking fair value; it is a highly engineered delivery system designed to seek and destroy liquidity. The current consolidation you see is not indecision; it is a 'Liquidity Coil'. The algorithm is purposefully compressing price action ahead of the 'Red Folder' events to engineer a 'Straddle Inducement'.
By keeping the range tight, the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) encourages retail traders to place tight buy-stops above the range and tight sell-stops below it. This creates two massive pools of liquidity—fuel for the machine. The news event is not the cause of the move; it is the 'Key' that unlocks this volatility. The initial move is almost always a 'Judas Swing'—a fraudulent manipulation designed to trigger one side of these stops (usually the sell-stops below) to harvest the necessary liquidity to fuel the *real* move in the opposite direction. We do not trade the news; we trade the algorithmic reaction to the liquidity harvest.
THE THESIS
The algorithm is currently in a 'Suspended State' of pre-event accumulation utilizing the impending volatility of the Macro Data Injection to engineer a classic 'Judas Swing' manipulation. The narrative is strictly governed by the 'Seek and Destroy' protocol: The market will utilize the news release to aggressively harvest the internal Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the 25,550.00 shelf to fuel the terminal expansion towards the external Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) at 25,900.00.
THE EXECUTION VECTOR
Entry: 25,525.00 (Buy Limit / Post-News Reclaim)
Stop loss: 25,380.00 (145.00 points)
Take profit: 25,950.00 (425.00 points)
Risk to reward ratio: 2.93R
THE CAUSAL RATIONALE
The Pre-News Narrative (The Trap)
Current price action (25,650.00) is a 'Volatility Compression' zone. The algorithm is holding price in a narrow range. Do not trade the drift. The drift is the bait. The algorithm is waiting for the 08:30 AM / 10:00 AM timestamp to unlock the high-velocity engine. The 'Red Folders' are simply the authorized time windows for the Market Makers to reprice the asset.
The News Event (The Judas Swing)
Upon the data release, expect an immediate, violent displacement. The highest probability vector is a 'False Bearish Breakout' (The Judas Goat). The algorithm will likely spike price DOWN into the 25,550.00 - 25,500.00 region. This serves two purposes:
1. Trigger the sell-stops of the overnight longs.
2. Induce breakout sellers to provide the necessary Buy-Side liquidity for the Smart Money to fill their long orders at a discount.
The Post-News Expansion (The Real Move)
Once the SSL is harvested and the 25,500.00 region (Bullish Order Block / FVG) is mitigated, look for an impulsive reclaim of the 25,600.00 level. This 'Sponsorship' signal confirms that the low is in, and the algorithm will switch to a 'Low Resistance Liquidity Run' targeting the clean highs at 25,900.00.
THE INVALIDATION (THE OMEGA POINT)
The bullish news model is ontologically corrupted if the news candle displaces below 25,380.00 and *sustains* acceptance there (15-minute close). A simple wick is not invalidation; it is a feature. But a closure below this level implies the macro data has triggered a 'Risk-Off' regime shift, targeting deeper discount arrays at 25,000.00.
KEY TRAJECTORY WAYPOINTS
Target 1: 25,750.00 | Type: Equilibrium / Initial Rebound | Probability: 90%
Target 2: 25,900.00 | Type: External Buy-Side Liquidity | Probability: 75%
Target 3: 26,100.00 | Type: Blue Sky Expansion | Probability: 40%
THE SHADOW REALITY
A 30% probability exists for the 'Bull Trap' scenario. In this reality, the news spikes price UP first into 25,850.00. If the first move is UP, fade it. The algorithm rarely gives the true move first during high-impact news.






















