Copper Short the pure strategy for scalpers 15M time frame Markeet will go smoothly down if you see consolidation than exit in profit
Micro Copper Futures (Aug 2026)
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Trade ideas
Copper Futures on the RiseCopper futures prices have been driven higher since the low around July 31st by a combination of tight supply fundamentals and strong structural demand from key sectors. This upward trend has firmly reasserted the long-term structural bull case for copper.
The primary drivers are:
Structural Demand Electrification
The long-term demand drivers for copper remain robust and are growing, making the metal less dependent on broad GDP growth and more tied to strategic sectors.
Energy Transition: Copper is a critical component in renewable energy (solar and wind power) and grid modernization. Building out and upgrading electrical grids worldwide requires massive amounts of copper wiring.
Electric Vehicles: EVs require significantly more copper than traditional combustion-engine vehicles, driving demand for wiring, batteries, and charging infrastructure.
AI and Data Centers: The rapid build-out of Artificial Intelligence infrastructure and large-scale data centers requires vast amounts of power and cooling, which rely heavily on copper for efficient electrical transmission and heat management.
Acute Supply Deficit and Disruptions
The market is facing a deepening structural deficit—meaning global demand is projected to outpace available supply for years to come. This tightness is exacerbated by recent disruptions.
Mine Disruptions: Significant production shortfalls at major mines have tightened the market considerably. This includes unforeseen operational issues at some of the world's largest copper assets, which pushed expected mine disruptions above the historical average.
Low Inventories: Copper inventories on major exchanges like the London Metal Exchange (LME) and COMEX have been at multi-year lows, leaving the market with little cushion to absorb any sudden supply shock or demand increase.
Long Lead Times: Bringing a new copper mine online is a notoriously long process, often taking around 17 years from exploration to production, making it difficult for supply to respond quickly to the surge in demand.
Trade and Macroeconomic Factors
These factors added volatility and short-term support to the post-July rally:
Tariff Volatility: The copper price spike in July 2025 and subsequent drop on July 31st was driven by market uncertainty surrounding proposed U.S. tariffs. Once refined copper was clarified to be mostly exempt, the price initially dropped, but the market quickly reverted to being driven by the underlying supply/demand fundamentals outlined above, pushing prices higher globally.
Weaker U.S. Dollar: Expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a general weakening of the U.S. dollar have supported copper prices. Since copper is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes the commodity cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Seasonal/Speculative Buying: The fourth quarter is often seasonally strong for industrial metals demand. This has encouraged speculative investors to rebuild long positions, adding financial momentum to the rally driven by tightening fundamentals.
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*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Evening star on copperCopper is a metal and act like silver and gold most the time.
Mainly I'm telling you that gold and silver will correct some,
because of that morning star on the copper
I'm not gridy
Target is only 5.17
Copper Shows Steady Relative Strength Against Equities (HG1!/SPYCopper continues to show steady relative strength against the S&P 500 on the daily timeframe.
Because copper is highly sensitive to economic activity, this ratio often provides an early read on underlying growth trends and industrial demand.
Key observations from today’s structure:
• Price remains above key moving averages, reflecting improving trend stability
• RSI is firm, showing constructive momentum
• Volume behavior supports the recent advance
• ATR remains controlled, indicating steady rather than volatile movement
A rising HG1!/SPY ratio often aligns with improving macro conditions and stronger growth expectations.
Monitoring this ratio across multiple timeframes helps clarify whether economic momentum is strengthening or weakening beneath the broader equity surface.
COPPER / GOLD & ISM PMI = Critical For AltseasonBeen seeing a lot of commentary on COPPER / GOLD.
This is a strong indication of industrial growth in the economy, as the demand for copper rises with build-outs.
The ISM PMI has a very strong correlation with C/G, also showing strength in the economy, as consumers buy more which gives businesses the ability to expand operations.
In a nutshell, these charts portray “Retail” ie “Main Street”.
There’s a very real possibility that we do not get our typical Alt Season at all this cycle if C/G & ISM PMI do not have a violent move up in the next few months. (more on this later)
The last time we saw such a divergence between these two was in January 2016 where it took C/G ~230 days to turn-up.
This would put Alt-Season Q4 ’26 - Q1 ’27, which makes sense theoretically based on Trump’s suspected stimulus plans which would come right before mid-terms.
This would give us our typical year-long bear market which has snuck up on us all because we lacked the retail euphoria phase due to very weak retail participation.
HOPIUM:
In 2016 When the ISM climbed above 50, COPPER soon found a bottom and Alts ripped.
Notice the bullish divergence on the RSI during that time, same as we are seeing now.
It looking like C/G may have found a bottom on this multi-decade parallel channel.
*Our livelihood depends on the ISM showing immense strength in the coming months so that C/G can follow.
Reassessing Copper’s Strength in a Shifting Macro CycleGradual Demand Recovery, Tightening Inventories
Copper leans bullish after the recent decline. While demand is still uneven, it is setting itself up to boom over the following few months; factors like supply constraints and a softening dollar are also shifting the balance upward.
On the demand side: China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in October, marking the seventh straight month of contraction, underscoring that the recovery remains fragile. Downstream restocking appears limited, and end-user demand remains wary.
Having said that, overall, the narrative of collapsing global demand, outside of China, is beginning to soften . The long-term projections are even more bullish, expecting global copper demand to rise by 40% by 2040.
Growth is being underpinned by:
• energy transition spending (grid upgrades, renewables)
• increasing digital/industrial usage (data centres, new infrastructure)
• regional growth in Asia (outside China)
Source: Reuters
Meanwhile, supply issues remain intact. The global refined copper market is now projected to face a 150,000-ton shortage in 2026, reversing the earlier forecast of a 209,000-ton surplus, as output growth slows.
Mine disruptions in Congo in June and those in Chile and Indonesia in the latter half of this year have already prompted the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) to revise yearly growth figures in mine production down to 1.3% from April’s 2.3% guidance.
Source: UNCTAD
Though the industry body expects mine output to rise by 2.3% again next year, the refining output is expected to only grow by 0.9% as against this year’s 3.5% growth.
Powell’s Pause and the Dollar Dilemma
The Federal Reserve’s October 29 decision to cut rates by 25 bps was unmistakably dovish. Still, Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that a further cut in December is “ not a foregone conclusion ”. He also remarked that policy is being conducted in a context of uncertainty (“driving in the fog”) due to delayed data from the government shutdown.
This has led to lower market expectation of another rate cut in December, with the probability falling to 63% from 92% a month ago. The dollar index has also shot up 1.5% over five sessions; dollar and copper prices move inversely.
Source: CME FedWatch tool
Having said that, labour data is inclined to the Fed being biased toward further easing. Jobs were likely lost in October across both the government and retail sectors, with over 20,000 positions shed from government payrolls.
Though the October data would not be published, an estimate from the Chicago Federal Reserve indicated that the unemployment rate edged up from September’s 4.35% to 4.4%.
A Mean-Reverting Ratio?
The long-term copper-gold ratio is also at a multi-decade low. The rise in this ratio usually indicates a “risk-on” thesis, where appetite for safe assets falls, and growth drivers like copper experience rising demand.
The thesis emerging from the current lows, though, is more about mean reversion than a “risk-off” sentiment, especially when fundamentals for both—high demand and soft supply—hold true for copper at the moment.
The ratio is based on U.S. prices, which plunged in July this year when copper was excluded from Trump’s tariffs.
Gold’s rise, on the other hand, is owing to more nuanced factors. Buying from financial investors shot up this year owing to increased geopolitical risk and a rethinking of the USD dominance narrative. Retail investors joined in later, seeing the price soar.
Cumulatively, this has brought the CGR to its lowest in almost 30 years, and is presently near levels it has also shot up from on multiple occasions before.
Historical Trade Set-up
Open interest for options for the December contract reflects a highly bullish view, with a high build-up of near and deep OTM calls. The OI put-call ratio stands at an unequivocally bullish 0.54.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Similar scenarios have lifted copper before, be it the demand-side push post-COVID, or the upward pressure on copper prices seen in 2010 due to supply disruptions.
Over the second leg of copper’s uptrend in 2021, the front-month copper futures rose from USD 4.603/lb to a high of USD 5.280/lb.
Given the CME copper futures contract size of 25,000 pounds, this translates to a gross mark-to-market profit of USD 16,925 per contract over the duration of the move:
PnL = (5.280 − 4.603) × 25,000 = USD 16,925
Alternatively, the same view could be expressed using CME Micro Copper futures, which represent 1/10th the notional of the standard contract, allowing for more granular exposure and lower capital requirements.
With three mine disruptions this year and new avenues emerging for copper to be deployed, both factors could trigger a repeat of past trends.
Technical indicators have also started showing early signs of a rebound; RSI has begun to tick upward, and support was successfully sought above S1.
Overall, copper continues to offer a compelling barometer of macro reflation, especially with strong fundamentals just as inventories tighten, and now that monetary policy also seems to be turning.
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Copper MCX Future - Intraday Technical Chart Analysis - 5 Nov.MCX:COPPER1!
MCX Copper Futures — Chart Pathik Insights | 5-Nov-25
Copper is consolidating at 996.30, grinding below the zero line (996.85) after pulling back from session highs near the 1,001–1,003 resistance cluster. A series of failed rallies and lower highs signal potential distribution, with risk of further dips ahead.
Bearish Structure:
Short bias is active below 998.70, especially as sellers repeatedly reject higher levels at add-long (1,000.05) and long entry (1,001.35).
Downside Levels:
989.90: Initial target for quick short profits or defensive trades.
985.60: Full extension if market weakness deepens across the session.
Risk Management: Shorts should be covered if copper closes back above 998.70 or finds sustained momentum above the zero/add-long area.
Bullish Structure:
Long ideas only trigger above 1,001.35—look for strong closes and uptrend confirmation before committing size.
Upside Levels:
1,003.80: First major profit-taking setup for intraday bulls.
1,008.10: Ambitious extension if breakouts accelerate.
Risk Management: Tighten stops below add-long or the zero line if price fails to sustain gains after a breakout.
Neutral/Range Logic:
The 996.85 pivot is the day’s inflection band. Expect more chop or sideways trade unless volatility marks a fresh directional thrust.
Trade mapped—use these pivots for entries with structure, exits for discipline, and risk logic every step.
If these levels help you trade copper clearly, boost, comment, and share for a sharper trading collective.
Follow Chart Pathik for disciplined mapping, learning, and practical structure every session.
Dr. Copper breakout or breakdown?Copper has been in a channel for around 23 years. The wedge pattern that has formed over the years will come to a decision point in the next few months. My money is on copper staying in the channel. That is to say, the weakness in the economies of Europe, the US, and China will deteriorate into outright recession in 2026.
Long-Term Long HG1 1WScenario A (Correction -> Long):
If the current FVG zone (~$5.00-$5.25) holds the price (i.e. acts as resistance), then a correction will begin
The most likely target for this correction is a test of the support block at 4.56.
If this block holds the price (shows the strength of demand), this will confirm the completion of the correction and give a signal to continue long with the final target at ATX (6.0).
Scenario B (Deep Correction):
If the block at 4.56 is broken (BOS), then the second scenario comes into effect.
The next magnet for price will be the removal of EQL (equal lows) in the OTE zone at 3.92.
This will still be considered an adequate macro correction as long as the price remains above the 'strong low' 3.13."
This is not investment advice!!! Keep your risks low!!! Happy trading!
Copper Futures (HGX2025): Bullish Continuation Setup Above 5.00
Copper Futures (Nov 2025) is showing renewed bullish strength as price sustains above the 50-day moving average and approaches the upper Bollinger Band.
After forming a strong base near $4.40–$4.50, buyers have gradually regained control, establishing a sequence of higher lows and higher highs.
As long as Copper holds above $4.80, the setup favors a continuation toward $5.50–$6.00.
A confirmed breakout above $5.20 could mark the start of a new bullish leg, potentially retesting yearly highs.
Copper is entering a bullish expansion phase after months of consolidation.
Momentum, structure, and volume all align for an upward bias — a potential trend continuation setup for swing traders and position holders.
Copper (HG1) Market Watch Simple & Clear!Copper’s looking strong right now 💪 and it might be setting up for a big move.
Here’s the key level I’m watching:
📈 If copper breaks and closes above 5.41, that could open the door for a run all the way up to 7.13.
That’s a big potential move but only if we hold strong above that breakout level.
💡 Right now, it’s all about confirmation ; a clean close above 5.41 could shift the trend in a big way.
Want to see the chart setup I’m using and how I’m planning around that 5.41 breakout?
💬 DM me “COPPER” and I’ll send you the exact breakdown directly. 🚀
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COPPER - LONGMCX:COPPER1! New breakout on longer timeframe chart with volume and news may continue further rally like fast furious momentum.
Copper Hourly Trend analysis As per my chart pattern analysis, MCX Copper is ready to move towards the target of 905.
Since this is my personal view, traders are suggested to conduct their own technical analysis for entries and exits.
Copper Oct. Futures (MCX) – Intraday Analysis - 6th Oct., 2025MCX:COPPER1!
Copper is consolidating at 987.65, just below the zero line at 990.05 after a steep rally. Price action is testing short-term resistance, poised for either a breakout continuation or a pullback to short-term support.
Bullish (Long) Setup
Long Entry (982.85):
Initiate longs above 982.85, confirming recovery from recent support and continuation of bullish momentum.
Additional long exposure can be considered near 979.55 on dips, where price previously held and formed higher lows.
Upside Targets:
1,007.50 (Target 1): First supply zone; likely profit booking area on continued buying strength.
1,018.30 (Target 2): Extended target marking recent highs and channel resistance.
Stop Loss:
Place stops below 976.20 (short entry level) or 973.44 (long exit) to manage risk on failed reversals.
Bearish (Short) Setup
Short Entry (976.20):
Shorts become actionable below 976.20, signaling a breakdown of support and momentum turning bearish.
Downside Targets:
972.60 (Target 1): Immediate support where short covering may occur.
961.80 (Target 2): Extended support level if selling pressure accelerates.
Stop Loss:
Cover shorts if price sustains above 982.85 to avoid losses on failed breakdowns.
Technical Structure & Logic
The price is consolidating near a key decision zone (zero line), with volume and momentum signals required to confirm the next directional bias.
Persisting above zero line supports bullish continuation.
Failure to hold above support zones signals risk for a deeper pullback.
Analysis techniques – Copper Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis techniques – Copper Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: HGZ25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
December copper rose slightly to 4.9610 USD/lb (+0.14%), sustaining its strong rebound from 4.49 support after a prolonged consolidation in August–September. The price has broken above short-term resistance and is approaching the psychological 5.00 mark. Medium-term structure remains bullish, targeting the key resistance zone of 5.53 – 5.90, a previous cycle high.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 5.53 – 5.90 – 6.00
Support: 4.90 – 4.49 – 4.21
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: Breakout from the 4.49 – 4.70 base favors further upside toward 5.53.
Volume: Rising on the breakout, signaling fresh inflows.
Wave structure: Copper appears in a medium-term recovery wave (wave 3), with theoretical targets around 5.53 – 5.90 before a pullback.
Confirmation signals: Sustained closes above 5.00 would confirm momentum; failure below 4.90 risks a retracement to 4.70 – 4.49.
4. VNC View
Short term: Positive outlook as metals attract flows amid a softer USD.
Medium term: Refined copper supply disruptions in South America and persistent green demand (EVs, renewables) underpin prices.
Risks: Potential demand weakness from China could trigger volatility.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4.95 – 5.00
TP: 5.53 – 5.90
SL: 4.90
Probability: 65%
Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 5.50 – 5.53
TP: 5.20 – 4.95
SL: 5.90
Probability: 40%
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Copper importers (Asia, Vietnam): Lock in purchases near 4.90 – 5.00 to mitigate upside risk.
Producers/sellers: Delay sales until prices approach 5.53 – 5.90 resistance for better margins.
well thought out bear idea got demolished, when in rome...do as the romans do...
great idea demolished..
look to the left I see huge wick down.
when price travels that fast down, it usually goes up slowly, or up just as fast. it's a good guess.
HG Making Distribution Move in NY PM SessionMarket Context
Current price: 4.6320/lb
Recent BOS (break of structure) marked, suggesting prior bearish leg was countered.
Price consolidating around equilibrium after BOS.
Zones
Option A (grey box ~4.620–4.625)
→ A smaller demand/OB zone just below current price.
→ If respected, we could see a quick bullish continuation targeting the upper liquidity pools (blue boxes).
Option B (orange box ~4.600–4.608)
→ Deeper discount OB/demand zone.
→ If price sweeps liquidity through Option A, this zone could be the “true” accumulation point before reversal up.
Directional Bias
Chart marks liquidity run + expansion higher as primary scenario.
Arrows show:
Scenario 1: Price bounces off Option A → quick long.
Scenario 2: Price dips into Option B → deeper liquidity grab before reversal.
Bullish target zones (blue) extend 4.650–4.680.
Session Labels
London accumulation, US session manipulation, PM session distribution → classic ICT intraday model.
Suggests NY PM session might complete distribution cycle before expansion.
Zinc & Copper Correlation is very healthyZinc and copper markets are closely related because both metals are used heavily in construction, manufacturing, and electrical applications, so demand often rises and falls together with industrial activity.
They’re also frequently mined from the same deposits, meaning supply-side disruptions can affect both. As a result, prices for zinc and copper tend to show a high degree of correlation, moving in similar cycles tied to global economic growth and infrastructure.
Comparing the Charts (Zinc on the left on a Monhtly TF), we see that Zinc has a lot of room left to the upside. Because it's goal is to go back to balance, which is the Centerline.
And because of the close correlation, I think the Chart of Copper HG1! is still OK.
So, in Copper, the Centerline target is still in play.
Copper’s Perfect Storm: Supply Strains Meet Fed TailwindsCaught between tightening global supply and shifting macro tailwinds, Copper is entering a pivotal phase.
CHINA’S COPPER OUTPUT CONTRACTION TO FIRE UP PRICES
As reported by Discovery Alert - a specialist mining research service provider - China’s refined copper output is set to fall 4–5% this month, the first seasonal drop since 2016.
The slowdown stems from smelter inefficiencies with scrap operating rates down by 8 percentage points to under 60%, and widespread maintenance amid a severe concentrate shortage. This is creating pressure on margins and forcing some facilities to operate at a loss.
LEANER COPPER INVENTORIES AND TIGHTER SUPPLY
Inventories are diverging across regions. Stocks on major exchanges such as the LME and SHFE have been falling. At the same time, inventory has been accumulating in CME warehouses, creating an uneven distribution. This leaves the global copper market more sensitive to any disruption, as supply tightness in one region can quickly drive up prices and premium volatility elsewhere.
Source: MacroMicro
Demand for copper remains resilient. Long-term drivers are strong with EVs, renewable energy, and power grid upgrades consuming ever more copper.
Put simply, copper faces low supply and steady demand. This combination makes the market tight and vulnerable to sudden price spikes, especially if global factors like a weaker US dollar or fresh Chinese stimulus kick in. With an 8.5 Mt supply deficit projected by 2030, the bias remains skewed to the upside.
TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BULLISHNESS TOO
CME Copper futures have steadily climbed above their Bollinger Band basis ($4.62/lb) since early September, with prices now testing the upper band, implying strengthening bullish momentum.
RSI has recovered above 50, confirming improving buying strength after a prolonged consolidation. At the same time, the MACD is nearing a bullish crossover with the histogram turning positive, indicating momentum is shifting upward.
Together, these signals highlight a market that has stabilized since August and is now priming towards a potential recovery if upside traction continues.
Copper futures are consolidating within a defined range, holding support at $4.65 and facing resistance at $4.88, reflecting a pause in upward momentum.
VOLATILITY EASES; CVOL & COT SIGNAL COPPER’S BULLISH TURN
Balance between calmer volatility and constructive skew points to a market in transition, as shown below.
Source: CVOL Index
Managed Money increased its long positions by 16% WoW, while its short positions dropped by 4.7% lifting net long positions by 25.6%.
Source: CME QuikStrike CoT
This shift signals stronger bullish sentiment and adds near-term upside pressure to copper prices as funds increase long exposure.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Investors may consider a bullish copper futures trade setup, which is warranted given current supply-chain tightness, shifting inventory balance, macro tailwinds, and technical momentum confirmation.
To express a bullish view on copper, investors can deploy a long position in CME Micro Copper Futures (each lot representing 2,500 pounds of copper) expiring in March 2026.
Traders can also express this bullish view through standard CME Copper Futures, with each contract representing 25,000 pounds of copper.
A hypothetical trade setup for this view is described below:
• Current Price ($/lb): 4.71
• Entry ($/lb): 4.70
• Target ($/lb): 5.00
• Stop loss ($/lb): 4.50
• Profit at Target ($/lb): 0.30 (USD 750 per lot of CME Micro Copper Futures)
• Loss at Stop ($/lb): 0.2 (USD 500 per lot of CME Micro Copper Futures)
• Reward to Risk: 1.5x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
HG - Copper Setting Up For A Long Opprtunity At Extreme📊 Fundamentals first:
- Short-term: The copper market is turbulent—marked by sharp price spikes, crashes, and global shifts in stock levels.
- Medium-term: Despite forecasted surpluses from ICSG, technology innovations and steady demand (especially from China and green sectors) may underpin prices.
- U.S. risk factor: The tariffs remain a major wildcard, likely restructuring trade flows, increasing domestic input costs, and distorting global price differentials.
📈 Now the Chart:
P5/0 at the U-MLH marked the end, and price dropped into the void.
Now, at the L-MLH we see support has built up.
The momentum we see now will probably lead in a pullback before the potential massive run-up to the Centerline.
💡 If the trading God gives me a pullback, I am willingly risk my 0.5% in this trade to make at least 4x more. 🦊
Happy new week to all §8-)
COPPER Multi-year Support held. Strong Buy Signal.Last time we had a look on Copper (HG1!) was almost 2 months ago (July 17, see chart below) and it delivered an instant return on our sell as it got rejected at the top of the Rising Wedge, quickly hitting our 4.700 Target:
The price just broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again this week after completing 5 weeks below it. With the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) intact as Support, the multi-year Rising Wedge should now technically initiate its new Bullish Leg.
Check also the 1W RSI, which just hit and rebounded on its 2-year Support Zone.
We expect a new Higher High on the Rising Wedge, targeting $6.000.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
return to solid buyers with confluences spells out continuation 1->3 : higher high which makes
number 2 a solid major low ,
as number 2 buyers surpassed
number 1 sellers making the number
3 pivot
3->4 : return to major buyers
what do I think will happen next ?
* hidden bullish divergence ( continuation )
* LRC 2nd standard deviation
* vwap reaction after 1st deviation, similar
to the reaction of the previous upswing
in similar standard deviation from vwap
* buy trade seems justified
return to solid buyers presents =BUY +mfi+rsi+obv+vwap+volume1->3 : higher high , number 2
solid major low
3->4 : return to number 2
what do I think will happen next ?
* hidden bullish divergence and also oversold
on rsi and mfi
*vwap median line on bar
* fractal bar with higher low on bar structure
* vpoc protecting stop loss
*obv breaking selling pressure into buying pressure
