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FDAX1! 09.12.2025The German index is moving back toward the upper zone, retracing almost the entire previous price area, as visible on the chart. The zone we are currently in represents a psychological level for traders — the 0.786 area, where many market participants typically expect at least a short-term trend reversal. However, the CVD still shows strength from buyers. Despite strong selling pressure hitting the market, the reaction has been relatively limited, which suggests the possibility of a continued move toward the next upper level.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by TettoFX
#202547 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. I’d rather look for longs but it’s not impossible that we do another leg down. We have 2 potential lower bear trend lines that should continue to be support because I don’t think this can accelerate down as of now. Much more likely is a bounce for 23600/23800 or even 24000. We are missing the upper bear trend line and it’s unlikely the market will continue down in such a narrow one. If bulls do not quickly recover 23400 early on Monday, we can do another test down to 23000 from where I expect a bigger bounce and a break out of the bear wedge. current market cycle: still qualifies as a trading range on the weekly chart as well as a bull trend on the monthly chart. It’s also a bear trend on the 1h or 4h chart. So pick what you like the most key levels for next week: 23000 - 24200 bull case: If I had to trade, I’d be inclined towards longs more than shorts. 23000 is an obvious level to bounce from and we did so last week and Friday’s price action was also showing no acceptance at or below 23000. First target for the bulls is to break above the bear wedge around 23400 and then to make higher highs above 23600 again. If they can, there is no reason why we can not melt for 2400 or even 24200 to test the shallow bear trend line from the ath again. Invalidation is below 22290 bear case: Bears got a decent pullback and hit my most reasonable bear target for this year. I was hoping for 22000 but at this point, without a bigger catalyst and given that we are couple of trading days from the end of the year, it’s just unreasonable to expect much lower prices at this point. If we don’t get real bad news, we will likely close the year around 24000. Bears are still slightly favored as long as the current bear wedge holds but if you want a good short trade, you will likely have to wait for 24000 or even 24300. Invalidation is above 23562. short term: Neutral but looking for longs rather than shorts. If we stay above 22900, we will likely see 24000 next week. medium-long term - from 2025-11-23: 23k got hit. Thanks for playing. Year close around 24000 most likely.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
FDAX Daily ChartI keep mentioning FDAX, this is why. It's about to lose the rangebound channel it's been in for months. If it breaks, I assume daily indicators will go oversold before we see a bounce. (Note: This IS a daily chart, not 3 hr) 3 hr indicators don't work too well if FDAX goes into a free fall. Just saying from past experience. So far it looks like US futures traders appear to be betting that FDAX will bounce because ES1! is only down 10 pts. I'm not so sure it will, we'll find out tomorrow morning.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by hungry_hippo
#202546 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We are almost exactly where we were 1 week ago and unless we stay below 24000 on Monday, there is a decent chance we will see a very similar week with support around 23600 and resistance around 24560. Clear triangle with mid-point around 24000. As of now there is nothing happening that could lead us to think this can make lower lows and head for 23000. Something needs to happen. What would that take? I don’t care for the reason tbh but I would need to see a bear gap staying open and continuous selling below 23600 with a big down day, closing at the lows. Otherwise it will just trade back up like literally every sell-off since June. current market cycle: trading range (contracting triangle) key levels for next week: 23600 - 24600 bull case: No side is favored so I spare you long texts for both sides. Bulls want to hit 24400+ again and they need to keep the market above 23500 or risk more downside. Invalidation is below 23600ish. bear case: Bears want lower lows below 23515 and expand the range to the downside. As of now I doubt they are strong enough for that. Much more likely that most bears will wait for higher prices above 24300 before shorting again. Invalidation is above 24570. short term: Neutral. Fade the extremes until we expand the range again. medium-long term - from 2025-11-16: Still expecting 23000 to get hit this year.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
3
#202545 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We can only sell-off for good if we leave behind a big gap. Every new low is heavily bought and gaps close. It’s a weak bear channel where the upper channel line is around 24150 and the lower one at 23500. Any long closer to 23500 is good but I think we won’t dip much on Monday and go straight for 24k again. current market cycle: weak bear trend key levels for next week: 23500 - 24200 bull case: 24000 is the next target and then likely they also want a test of the bear trend line which is close to the daily 20ema 24100. If they break the trend line, there is no reason we can’t go above 24400+ again. Not much more magic to it tbh. Bulls bought every new low and the lower lows did not go far so bulls are somewhat favored for more upside early next week. Invalidation is below 23500. bear case: Bears need to print another lower high, preferably around 24000. They need to accelerate the bear trend or risk breaking out of it in favour of higher prices again. By acceleration I mean strong lower lows in a steeper bear channel. Right now the major lows are 23780 and 23515 which means the market sold off for ~1% over 20 days. This is more of a trending trading range than a strong trend. Best case scenario is a strong rejection below 23900 and new lows below 23500 on Monday. Invalidation is above 24200. short term: Neutral. I would like to see a re-test of 24000 and a strong rejection down again for new lows but for now, sideways 23700 - 24100 is most likely. medium-long term - from 2025-11-01: 23000. Still expecting this to get hit.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202544 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Monthly chart tells you that this market has not moved anywhere since May. 5 consecutive monthly doji’s and 3 consecutive bearish ones at that. Doesn’t matter one bit until we get a daily close below 23k again. I have written it before. German GDP is likely contracting the second quarter in a row and the other one was flat. This market has no business being up here but that’s the reality. No way to anticipate when it will make lower lows again. Until then it’s about playing the range. Expecting a bigger move out of the triangle next week. Direction of that move is likely a coin-toss or maybe very slightly in favor of the bulls, since other markets are still max bullish. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 23500 - 24900 bull case: 24230 would be the first lower high for bulls to regain and even then, we have another bear trend line right above it. Only argument for the bulls is that shorts below 24100 have not been profitable since September. Longs are the better r:r trade here around 24000 but the stop would likely have to be 23780. Invalidation is below 23780. bear case: Bears are not favored for more downside, given the 4h or daily chart. I expect this to become another higher low for couple more days or until we get a reasonable catalyst for the markets to finally pull back harder. Anything below 23800 would surprise me more than prices above 24500. Invalidation is above 24230. short term: Neutral. Only interested in longs around 24000 for at least 24100/24200. If bulls can not come around to event get above 24100 again and we have a decent 1h close below 24k, shorting for 24800 and hoping for 24500 is also a reasonable trade. medium-long term - from 2025-11-01: 23000. Still expecting this to get hit.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2
#202543 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to say. Many months in the same trading range and we are in the middle of it. Not making more out of this than it is, market is in balance around 24300. Fade the extremes until we get better follow-through to either side. I do think 24600+ is a bit more likely than < 23800. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 24000 - 24600 bull case: Bulls want something above 24487 again but even if they get it, will it be a strong breakout for much higher prices again or will it become a form of a double top and faded? My money will likely be on the latter. Market is in balance, don’t try to make something up. Invalidation is below 24000. bear case: 24000 continues to be huge support and until we get multiple daily closes below it, we have to assume that the support continues. Best bears can hope for is to stay below 24600 and go sideways until market get’s a real catalyst to price in at least some of the risks. Invalidation is above 24487. short term: Neutral. medium-long term - from 2025-10-12: 23000.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds