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#202543 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to say. Many months in the same trading range and we are in the middle of it. Not making more out of this than it is, market is in balance around 24300. Fade the extremes until we get better follow-through to either side. I do think 24600+ is a bit more likely than < 23800. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 24000 - 24600 bull case: Bulls want something above 24487 again but even if they get it, will it be a strong breakout for much higher prices again or will it become a form of a double top and faded? My money will likely be on the latter. Market is in balance, don’t try to make something up. Invalidation is below 24000. bear case: 24000 continues to be huge support and until we get multiple daily closes below it, we have to assume that the support continues. Best bears can hope for is to stay below 24600 and go sideways until market get’s a real catalyst to price in at least some of the risks. Invalidation is above 24487. short term: Neutral. medium-long term - from 2025-10-12: 23000.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202541 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Full ducking bear mode. Zero doubt we will get a correction. Market was waiting for a catalyst to start the profit taking and it’s likely full on now. Can I be wrong about this selling again and some “positive” trade-related news comes out on which we will print another new ath? Sure. Sometimes it’s just about putting on a trade with a decent stop and holding it until it reaches your target. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend on the lower tf was broken on Friday and we could be in a new bear trend down to 23000 or lower key levels for next week: 23000 - 25000 bull case: Bulls want a pull-back and the higher they can get it, the more afraid the bears become again. If bulls are strong, they will retrace more than 50% of Friday’s selling, which is around 24550. If they do so, the downside will likely be limited to maybe another leg which might hit 24000 or not. As of now, given the news and the 4h chart, that thesis is very low probability. Invalidation is below 24200. bear case: Bears want to keep this selling as strong as possible now and quickly get us to 24000. There most will take a good chunk off and see how high we can bounce. The most important part for the bears now is to keep any bounce as shallow as possible. Best case scenario would be to move sideways around 24300 to max 24400 and then down to 24000. The quick move down is so important because that would open up a measured move down to 23000 and will be my favored path for the next days/weeks. Invalidation is above 24550. short term: Full ducking bear mode. medium-long term from 2025-10-12: 23000.
EUREX:FDXS1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202539 - priceactiontds - weekly update - fdax Good evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Got a minor pullback last week so outlook was fine but I can not hold on to bearish thoughts, given the tails below the prior 2 weekly bars. Easy invalidation here for both sides. Bulls need something above 24060 for more upside and bears a strong move below 23400 for more downside. As of now, sideways is the most likely outcome because this market has not moved at all for 3 straight weeks. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 23000 - 24750 bull case: Above 24060 they continue to have the trading range case. That has not changed and given the bullish close on Friday, I do think bulls are very slightly favored for 24k or more, than bears for testing down to 23500 or lower. Invalidation is below 23700 bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high and continue sideways to down. If they fail at 23900, we will quickly test 24000/24060 and if they also fail there, many bears will give up because we could go back all the way to the bear trend line around 24200 or more. What do bears have going for them? Not much besides that we have not moved much in the past 3 weeks. Invalidation is above 24060 short term: Neutral but very slightly favoring the bulls for a test 24200 or more. medium-long term from 2025-08-24: 23000 is my target for the next weeks. Need a catalyst.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
7
#202535 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. We can drop a little more until we hit the bull trend line and weekly 20ema around 23800 but we don’t have to. I don’t think you can short down here and hope for more downside after last week. Market is barely moving and on the monthly chart we have been going nowhere since May. Can’t expect a big range expansion without a catalyst. 24100 is the neutral price for this for the time being. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 23000 - 24750 bull case: Bulls want to keep the market making higher lows and stay at least inside the triangle. They want another bounce above the weekly 20ema and could trade at least back up to 24400 if the triangle is correct. The bears have not been able to print more than 2 red weeks since March so bulls know that bears are not strong and not many want to risk selling low in fear of getting trapped. Invalidation is below 23447 bear case: Bears could to pushing lower and touch the weekly 20ema around 23800 but how many are willing to risk it? Where would they place their stop? 24115? That’s a stupid trade and given the current structure, selling below 24000 is not worth it. There is a small chance that we get down to 23800ish but for now I can’t see it. Best bears can hope for is to stay below 24200ish and leave a decent gap open. Invalidation is above 24400 short term: As neutral as can be. medium-long term from 2025-08-24: 23000 is my target for the next weeks. Need a catalyst.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
a return to solid structure in an uptrend creates a =BUYers wrld1->3 : we create higher highs , number 2 originating buyers create number 3 surpassing number 1 , this makes number 2 buyers a solid major low, as they have proven themselves stronger than the most recent major sellers 3->4 : we return to the major solid buyers in the market what do I think will happen : * well, we have bullish rsi and mfi , and returned to major buyers, the trend is uptrend on the daily so its looking very likely for us that the uptrend will continue, I want to still see some bullish microstructure before entering. * using chaos theory we can see a 74% chance of follow through if we close above a zone. the best entry then would be above number 4 , or if prive goes lower and gets a waiting for validation even closer to the number 2 low, that would be even better for us.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by jacesabr_real
#202534 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. I do think this could become a giant bull trap but confirmation is only below 24200. For now it’s best to be neutral since we are in the middle of the triangle. Not much more to read into this so don’t try looking at this for hours and make stuff up. I’d be surprised if we go above 24600. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 24000 - 24750 bull case: Bulls need a higher high to open the possibility of re-testing 24700+. Bulls can argue it’s a two-legged pullback (ABC correction) on the daily chart but that’s a tough argument since the market has basically gone nowhere since early June. Invalidation is below 24200ish bear case: Bears need something below 24200, until then it’s above two trend lines, daily ema and bears have not made lower lows since start of August. Invalidation is above 24600 short term: As neutral as can be. Only interested in shorts really but not after Friday. Need to see this becoming a bull trap and bigger selling pressure again. medium-long term from 2025-08-24: 23000 is my target for the next weeks but for that the market has to stay below 23600.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202532 - priceactiontds - weekly update - fdaxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Multiple ways to draw triangles on this daily chart and I will continue to bet on a contracting range. So for me shorts above 24200 are mighty fine with stop 24750. Mid-point of the most obvious triangle is 24090 which is my line in the sand for both sides. If any side can turn it support/resistance, it will likely be the signal for breakout. 24090 is never 100% accurate, prices always have to be viewed as areas/zones and not exact points. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 23500 - 24750 bull case: Bulls want to run the stops above 24510 where the sell-off end of July began, which they already stuffed. Every daily bar lasted week hat a big tail above and yet we still moved higher each day except Friday. It’s 50/50 if we go above 24510 or not. Even if bulls get above it, no long above 24250 has been profitable for more than 1-2 days, so the upside will likely be very limited. Invalidation is below 23000 bear case: Bears messed up again last week but they can still make an important statement by not letting the market get above 24500 again. Due to the strong reversal this week, we can not expect the market to print new lows next week. Bears are favored here since it’s the upper third of the range. Invalidation is above 24750 short term: Bearish for at least 24000 again but could go to 23700. Stop has to be 24751 as of now. medium-long term from 2025-08-10: Another stuffed attempt. Kills me. I still think the highs are in but it’s more like a 50/50 bet right now.
EUREX:FDXS1!Short
by priceactiontds
DAX Futures FDAX1!) Imbalance Fill Before Bullish Continuation?Analysis Summary: 1. Current pullback after a strong impulse move suggests a short-term retracement. 2. The imbalance zone (highlighted in red) around 23,970–24,010 may act as a magnet. 3. Alternatively, price may continue lower to tap into 4H demand / liquidity zone before reversing upward. 📌 Educational purpose only. Not financial advice. Let me know your thoughts or if you see it differently — open to feedback!
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by hariharanelumalai22
10
2025-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears had two legs down and the reversal from 24000 was strong enough to doubt this can go below 24000. I do expect some form of re-test of 24000 but the buying since then was insane again. Not a single 1h bar dropped below the prior one. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 24000 - 24600 bull case: Bulls next target is the breakout re-test of 24271 and if they can break above, the next target is today’s high at 24364. Above is likely no more resistance until 24450 or 24500. A print above 24271 would confirm the trading range and conclude the selling for now. This looks more like a two-legged move in a bigger trading range than stronger selling. Invalidation is below 24350. bear case: Bears need to keep it below the breakout price and re-test 24000. If they can leave an open gap, that would be great. Best would be to go sideways and stay below 24100 then but for now I have no trust in the bears. Invalidation is above 24271. short term: Neutral. No trust in bears but it would be great if we would stay below 23271 and test 24000 again. Daily close below 24000 would be a dream for bears. Above 24271 I would probably look for longs and higher prices again. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000 trade of the day: Selling EU open, no bigger resistance and only red bars on the 1h chart.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds