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Euro / U.S. Dollar

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Oct 042023

EUR/USD: Euro Breaks Double Bottom Pattern to Hit 10-Month Low at $1.0450

The European currency’s troubles continue as the dollar is fueled by more economic data, high interest rates, and safety-seeking.

  • The EUR/USD pair tumbled to a fresh ten-month low on Tuesday, hitting $1.0448 – a level unseen since early December last year. The continued weakness in the euro is largely a mix of a languishing domestic economy and hot data coming out of the US, powering the dollar.
  • America’s labor market may still be running on overdrive. Tuesday data showed that job openings for August rose more than expected to 9.6 million against a consensus for 8.8 million. The report sparked speculations that Friday’s keenly-watched nonfarm payrolls print might bring another surprise to markets.
  • On the technical front, the EUR/USD crossed a long-term double bottom at the $1.0480 mark. With that level taken out, the next support lies at the $1.0440 threshold. The euro has been in a consistent downtrend since mid-July when bulls managed to lift the rate near $1.13.
Imelda / Unsplash
Sep 282023

EUR/USD: Euro Takes Fresh Beating to $1.0490 as Dollar Tear Shifts Gears

Conviction grows that the US dollar will stay well-bid as interest rates aren’t coming down any time soon. Euro bears got bruised.

  • The EUR/USD took a fresh dive on Wednesday, hitting a low last seen in early January. The euro-bruising session propelled the forex pair to $1.0490 as the US dollar found fresh legs to extend its powerful march toward higher grounds. What happened?
  • Not much except for the same old – dollar reigns supreme in a high interest-rate environment. Currency traders are still digesting the Fed’s message from last week when Fed chief Jay Powell said that the central bank will keep rates higher for longer, even if that means some economic pain flaring up.
  • Elevated interest rates generally tend to support the local currency. Still, incoming economic data could rattle the dollar’s dominance. Later today, US growth data is on deck, while eurozone inflation comes tomorrow and traders may get a bit wild in efforts to ride out sweeping volatility.
Mariia Shalabaieva / Unsplash+
Sep 182023

EUR/USD: Euro Reels Out of Longest Losing Streak in History as Price Floats Near $1.0650

Can the euro pull itself together after what the ECB did? Or is another hit at parity inevitable? Find out about the latest drama on the EUR/USD.

  • The EUR/USD is slowly trying to pick itself up after it logged the ninth straight week of losses. It is the longest losing weekly streak since the euro first saw daylight in 1999. The record run of lower lows battered the currency to a six-month bottom at $1.0630. Early on Monday, slim advances have been made to raise the rate to $1.0650.
  • Last Thursday, the European Central Bank pulled a surprise move to hike interest rates to a record high of 4%. Traders didn’t like that and responded with a solid pushback that saw the euro cave in. The euro’s strained relationship to the dollar has cost it a 5% chunk of its valuation over the past three months.
  • Analysts are now predicting that the ECB will not go further than 4% on the interest rate front. Add to that a weakening eurozone economy, prospects for recession, and a noticeable slowdown in growth, and you’ve got a mixed bag of data out of the old continent, all casting a shadow over the euro.
Illustration by TradingView
Sep 152023

EUR/USD: Euro Hits 6-Month Low at $1.0630 as ECB Hikes Rates to Record High

A painful rate increase amid an economic slowdown? Traders didn’t seem to think this was a great idea. Let’s find out why.

  • The EUR/USD pair dug into a six-month bottom on Thursday, and remains pressured on Friday, after the European Central Bank lifted interest rates to a record high of 4%. As a consequence, the native currency, the euro, changed hands at $1.0630, down from a Thursday opening price of $1.0730.
  • Generally, when the local central bank hikes rates, the local currency shifts gears. But in this case, traders sent a very clear signal that they don’t trust in the ECB’s judgment. The European economy has been faltering and another rate hike only elevated the prospects of an even more painful drag on the old continent’s dealmaking and business activity.
  • Contrary to the euro, Europe’s region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 (SXPP) advanced 1.5% on the day. Individually, France’s CAC 40 added 1.2%, and Germany’s DAX 40 shot up 1%. Whether the ECB’s move was a classic central bank mistake or a surprising twist to tackle inflation, we’re yet to see in the days and weeks to come.
Bastian Riccardi / Unsplash
Sep 132023

EUR/USD: Euro Flat Against Dollar at $1.0750, Traders Shift Focus to Inflation Data

The consumer-price index for August is due out later today. Volatility might slowly start picking up ahead of the release.

  • The EUR/USD pair was trading fairly muted early on Wednesday as forex bros anticipated the release of the US inflation report later today. The pair was chugging along the $1.0750 line this morning, up from around $1.07 on Tuesday when the dollar was pressing across the currency board again.
  • Today’s inflation data, the consumer price report, is expected to show that price pressures accelerated slightly to 3.6% in August, up from 3.2% in July. While the increase might not seem significant, it may help steer the Federal Reserve to consider lifting interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week.
  • Overall, Fed officials already signaled that they are not looking to raise interest rates when they gather on Sept. 19-20. Still, the US central bank has made it clear that the rate-hike campaign is not over and at least a couple more rate lifts might be needed this year to stamp out inflation.
Mariia Shalabaieva / Unsplash
Sep 082023

EUR/USD: Euro Dips Under $1.07 as Strong US Economy Buoys Dollar Higher

An eighth straight week of losses is staring at the European currency as traders flee to the dollar for continued gains.

  • The EUR/USD pair was moving sideways early Friday but recent performance has positioned the euro as one of the biggest decliners on the forex board for the past couple of months. The European currency has erased about 5% of its valuation against the buck since mid-July, sliding from $1.1270 to $1.0680.
  • The exchange rate briefly dipped below $1.07 yesterday and floated above that handle in the European session on Friday. Mounting losses have been the norm for euro bagholders as the European Central Bank is flashing mixed signals over its ability to control inflation and avoid recession by raising interest rates.
  • And while economies in the old continent battle with a grinding downturn, the US jobless claims report on Thursday surprised with a drop, indicating a robust labor market. The ECB meets next Thursday for the fate of interest rates, and the Federal Reserve gathers Sept. 19-20 for its rate decision.
Bastian Riccardi / Unsplash
Sep 052023

EUR/USD: Euro Hits 3-Month Low at $1.0750 as Dollar Bulls Charge Ahead in New Month

After a painful August, euro backers are staring at fresh September losses, despite economic data that may suggest a dollar pullback.

  • The EUR/USD pair is off to new lows after traders on both sides of the Atlantic are ready to kickstart September deals. The exchange rate slipped to a fresh three-month low near $1.0750 as traders rushed to the dollar, following a goldilocks jobs figure that should ease the moods at the Federal Reserve.
  • The dollar has pressed forward across the board, making gains against other rival currencies, including the British pound and the Japanese yen. The cooling economy, some analysts argue, should technically suggest a weaker dollar since the Fed won’t be pressured to hike rates at the same aggressive pace.
  • But forex is a different animal and the dollar is gaining. Down the week, not much crucial data is on deck and traders may use their time to spot another golden unicorn rainbow pattern. Or a cup-and-handle model, complemented by a feisty leprechaun positioned for a new leg up.
Allison Saeng / Unsplash
Sep 012023

EUR/USD: Dollar Gives Up Early Gains as Jobs Report Comes In at Cool 187,000 in August

The monthly nonfarm payrolls came in above expectations for 170,000, sending the euro soaring by more than 50 pips to levels near $1.09.

  • The EUR/USD pair moved to the upside on Friday as forex traders reacted to another cool report from the US. Jobs data for August arrived at a softer 187,000 as US employers kept tightening their search for new hires. The data, analysts say, will likely keep the Fed satisfied for the time being.
  • Last month's nonfarm payrolls were aligned to the 187,000 added in the month prior. What this means for the Federal Reserve is that central bankers might finally apply less pressure on the gas pedal toward higher interest rates.
  • In that context, the EUR/USD pair gained some 60 pips post release, advancing to levels near $1.09. On the technical front, the exchange rate is caught right between the 100-day and the 200-day moving average. Hence, the report may be a catalyst for a new move in the making, challenging the dollar's dominance over the euro during the past month.
Annie Spratt / Unsplash
Aug 252023

EUR/USD: Euro Drops Under $1.08, Breaches 200-Day Moving Average as Dollar Fires Up

The US dollar refuses to give up and, what’s more, it just busted a key long-term support for the first time since November.

  • The EUR/USD pair is cruising to new August doldrums as the US dollar is so back it pierced the 200-day moving average. The move, technically speaking, is defining the long-term trend as bearish. It’s the first such breach since November when the pair was trading near $1.03.
  • Early on Friday, the euro dropped to levels below $1.08, with a session low of $1.0770. A continued dollar strength has narrated the pair’s movements this month, but the narrative may change, depending on what happens later today. And that’s where traders will be looking.
  • The Jackson Hole symposium is now underway. It’s the annual gathering of central bankers and economists and it wraps up with a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. His comments are keenly-anticipated as traders expect to hear whether the Fed is considering cutting interest rates sometime next year.
CAR GIRL / Unsplash
Aug 212023

EUR/USD: Euro Slides Further After Six Straight Losing Days, Rate Hike Jitters Weigh

The Fed thinks inflation may stay higher for longer. The US dollar wants to soak in all that uncertainty and come out stronger.

  • The EUR/USD extended its slide to close a sixth straight day in negative territory on Friday. In early Monday dealmaking, the popular currency pair resumed its downward trend but euro bulls were a bit more demanding, helping buoy the rate near $1.0870.
  • Renewed interest rate fears are back on the table, after the Federal Reserve last Wednesday said inflation may creep up again. To prevent that, the US central bank will be serving more of the same – rate hikes for everyone. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for September 19-20.
  • Until then, we’ve got a series of economic reports that will shed light on consumer price trends, job market situation, and the resiliency of US consumer spending. A continuously hot economy may sway Fed officials to bump rates again at the next meeting. A cooling economy may have them skip it.
Victor Grabarczyk/ Unsplash
Aug 142023

EUR/USD: Euro Slides to 100-Day Moving Average Despite Cooling US Inflation

The greenback is flexing again with fresh Monday gains across the board. Where could it go next?

  • The EUR/USD pair extended its Friday decline into Monday’s early hours with the exchange rate slipping to a low of $1.0930. The intraday drop was just enough to touch the 100-day moving average, suggesting the euro has found its inflection point in the medium term.
  • With that in mind, traders were quick to swoop in and provide some cushioning, helping buoy the EUR/USD to a session high of $1.0960. The 100-day moving average is presently around 50 pips below the 50-day moving average, a not-so-strong support level.
  • The US dollar’s chase for higher appreciation comes after another relatively soft inflation data. The US consumer-price index for July showed price pressures moved sideways at 3.2% year-over-year increase. The greenback was seen making gains across the board with the USD/JPY soaring to ¥145.22.
Markus Spiske / Unsplash
Aug 102023

EUR/USD: Euro Spikes Above $1.1060 on July Inflation Data, Bounces Off 50-Day Moving Average

Volatility swept forex markets today as currency traders jumped on the euro train, riding on inflation in-line with expectations.

  • The EUR/USD shot higher by more than half a percent on Thursday, moments after the latest inflation report rattled financial markets. The pair touched a session high of $1.1060 as the US dollar got weak in the knees after another cheerful consumer-price report that showed price pressures remain under control.
  • July’s CPI index showed prices ticked up by 3.2% on an annual basis. The figure was slightly above June’s cool 3.0% year-on-year inflation growth. Even with that number, the Federal Reserve has done plenty to lean against stubborn inflation to think that price momentum has nowhere to go but lower.
  • We’ve got a thing for the technical gurus among us, too - the EUR/USD just bounced off the 50-day moving average. A day earlier, the pair pulled a touch-and-go on the 100-day moving average. Both indicators are technically suggesting an upside move in the pair. Much lower than current market price, near the $1.0770 mark, is the 200-day moving average.
Tony Litvyak / Unsplash
Aug 072023

EUR/USD: Euro Jumps Near $1.10 as US Job Growth Slows Down to 187K in July

The US added 187,000 new workers to the economy, coming below estimates and signaling the Fed may wrap up the action.

  • The EUR/USD pair moved higher on Friday, moments after the latest nonfarm payrolls arrived. For July, the US economy added 187,000 new hires, lower than an estimated gain of 200,000 but slightly above the revised 185,000 in June. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% from 3.6% a month ago.
  • In that context, the volatile dollar dropped across the board, allowing the euro to speed-run over the $1,10 threshold, from a Friday session low of $1.0948. A daily high of $1.1045 was hit, but greenback bulls didn’t sit idle post the report and got back to try and dominate again.
  • The latest jobs report signaled that the Federal Reserve’s campaign might be panning out as intended. A stronger hiring pace would’ve further pressured the central bank to lean more heavily against the economy. But with new job creation gradually unwinding, analysts are saying that Fed officials may ease up on the attitude going forward.
Ryoji Iwata / Unsplash
Aug 042023

EUR/USD: Euro Stable Near $1.09 as Traders Expect a Cooler Jobs Report for July

The Fed, investors, traders and their dogs, cats, and moms will be watching the latest jobs figures today.

  • The EUR/USD was trading muted early on Friday as forex-market participants anticipated the latest on the economic front. The pair moved from $1.09 to around $1.0920, and is on its second day of fairly weak and sideways movement, probably building up excitement for the grand report today.
  • It’s Jobs Day! And that can only mean one thing - markets will be watching to find out how many Americans were pulled into the economy last month. The July nonfarm payroll report is expected to show that employers added 200,000 people to the workforce. The figure is slightly below the 209,000 jobs created in June.
  • A cool reading will be a sign of progress for the Federal Reserve. With all of us living in a world where US interest rates are at the highest since 2008 (thanks Fed), it would make sense for businesses to narrow their hiring efforts. What we’ve seen so far shows the economy is gradually coming to terms with that theory.
Stock Birken / Unsplash
Aug 012023

EUR/USD: Dollar Turns Up Ahead of Key US Jobs Data, Euro Slips Sub $1.10

Weakness in the euro was further reinforced after last week’s strong US GDP data.

  • The EUR/USD pair extended its short-term decline early on Tuesday, adding some 0.3% to the recent series of depreciation. Since the exchange rate peaked at $1.1275 in mid-July, the dollar has popped out its horns again, acting all bullish and demolishing any competition.
  • The euro slipped to a session low of $1.0970 today, marking a fall of 2.7%, or 305 pips from its top last month. The drop is happening on the back of strong US data, including an accelerated GDP growth in the US, but also optimistic projections for the US labor market.
  • On Friday, nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show 200,000 Americans landed a job (or two) in July. The number is a tad lower than the 209,000 added in June and, if confirmed, it will indicate that the red-hot labor market is gradually cooling and further solidifying expectations of a soft landing from the Federal Reserve.
Illustration by TradingView
Jul 272023

EUR/USD: Euro Regains $1.11 After Fed Chief Powell’s Post-Hike Conference

The volatile pair didn’t exactly go wild on Wednesday after traders had already baked in an interest rate hike.

  • The EUR/USD pair advanced on Wednesday and extended gains on Thursday after the Federal Reserve pressed ahead with another rate hike. This time, it was all according to expectations – a 0.25% increase was added to the recent rate rises to a current 5.50% interest rate.
  • The euro took that as a bullish signal and is already up some 80 pips, or 0.75% after the announcement was made yesterday. Fed boss Jay Powell reassured investors that the next rate hike will be communicated in advance and pinned September’s Fed meeting as a convenient time to hike rates with another 0.25%.
  • The EUR/USD is now trading well above $1.11 with a session high of $1.1130. Earlier this month, the dollar shifted gears and overtook the momentum to appreciate from $1.13 to $1.10. The Fed’s rate hike had a fairly muted impact on other currency pairs, including the USD/JPY and the GBP/USD.
Immo Wegmann / Unsplash
Jul 252023

EUR/USD: Euro Dives Below $1.11 After Weak Economic Data Signals Slowdown

The eurozone’s composite PMI flashed an 8-month low; the Fed announces rate decision on Wednesday.

  • The EUR/USD pair slipped 0.4% to $1.1060 to kick off an eventful week packed with major economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, an underwhelming report weighed on the bullish sentiment in the single currency, leading to its decline for the session.
  • The eurozone’s composite PMI tumbled to 48.9 – an eight-month bottom and the second month in a row of sub-50 prints. The figure indicated a possible prolonged period of slow growth and came in just as the European Central Bank prepares to hike rates by an expected 0.25% on Thursday.
  • Prior to that, the US Federal Reserve is gearing up for its own interest rate decision. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell will announce whether his clique has agreed on another 0.25% rate increase to 5.5%.
Christian Wiediger/ Unsplash
Jul 182023

EUR/USD: Euro Stabilizes Near Multi-Month Highs at $1.1260 as European Inflation Data Looms

The dollar offers little to entice investors after last week’s super-soft inflation report. Europe is next.

  • The EUR/USD pair held on to last week’s gains in the range between $1.1220 and $1.1270 on Monday. The dollar had slim to no chance to attract investors’ attention after US inflation last week came in below estimates, suggesting the Fed will cool down its rate-hike action.
  • It’s the euro’s turn now. The European inflation print is coming this Wednesday and analysts aren’t too optimistic about it. They forecast that Europe-wide consumer prices rose 5.5% in June on an annualized basis. The consensus is below May’s 6.1% inflation figure.
  • Over the past seven trading sessions, the euro has only had a single down day. In that period, the EUR/USD exchange rate has gained an impressive 3.9%, or more than 400 pips. Other major currencies have also strengthened their valuations against the greenback, including the British pound and the Swiss franc.
Tony Litvyak / Unsplash
Jul 132023

EUR/USD: Euro Rallies to $1.1150, On Pace to Log Six Straight Winning Sessions

The US dollar got massively sold off yesterday after the latest CPI reading came in better than expected.

  • The EUR/USD pair advanced a hefty 1.4% on Wednesday and is on track to close its sixth consecutive day of gains on Thursday. The volatile exchange rate pressed to a 4-month high going from $1.10 to a daily high of $1.1150 as inflation numbers panned out better than expected.
  • The US consumer-price index for June landed at 3.0%, squeezing below expectations for 3.1%. In other words, the pace of inflation for the US economy drifted to a low last seen in April 2021. In response, traders were quick to offload their dollar bets, sending the euro soaring.
  • The dollar selloff was spotted across the board. Major currencies notched solid gains against the buck. The GBP/USD is also on track to strike a streak of six winning days with the rate now going for roughly $1.30. The sterling is up a staggering 8% against the US dollar this year.
Getty Images / Unsplash
Jul 102023

EUR/USD: Euro Jumps 1% to Trade Near $1.10 After Jobs Data Shows US Hiring Slowed in June

Nonfarm payrolls for the previous month arrived at a healthy 209,000 jobs, while the May figure got revised to 306,000.

  • The EUR/USD pair staged a solid rebound on Friday after the June nonfarm payrolls data indicated a slowdown in labor-market growth. The volatile exchange rate reversed prior losses to jump roughly 1%, or about 100 pips, closing the day at $1.0964. Early deals today keep the rate well-bid.
  • A few key takeaways from Friday's jobs report: US employers added 209,000 new workers in June. It is a healthy figure that suggests the Fed’s rate hikes may be cooling the economy down. On the other end, not many were laid off, too. Workforce reduction hit a 7-month low last month by dropping 50% from May.
  • May’s payroll positions were revised to the downside from 339,000 to 306,000. In that context, the US dollar found little to rely on as its value plummeted across the board. Other than the euro gaining against the greenback, the British pound and the Japanese yen also logged advances.
Kamran Abdullayev / Unsplash