EUXNOK trade ideas
EURNOK SHORT TRADE IDEA ON H2Looking for short trades on this pair after it made a corrective pattern.
we are still experimenting with our forex forecast eurnokwe are experimenting with forex - our models seem not to be so sensitive when it comes to forex and commodities.
we just got some clear signal for NOK - even though NOK is OIL dependent - worth a try??
Update - Next wave downWeekly:
- Ichimoku gains more bearish momentum. While spot price is still in the Kumo cloud, we have a bearish Senkou Span cross (Kumo twist) 26 weeks ahead. Price turned down sharply from Kijun Sen and made a lower low! All averages point down now (Tenkan, Kijun and their average Senkou A).
- Heikin-Ashi pattern is bearish with strong momentum.
- Major Head & Shoulders pattern may be validated this or next week with neckline break. In this case long term measured target comes around 8,40-8,45.
- EWO ticks into negative zone
- MACD bearish cross below zero!
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish, with support at 9,3250.
- Heikin-Ashi is swing bullish, but the momentum of reactive pull back is dropping -> see haDelta/SMA3 cross. haOscillator will likely stay below zero too.
- EWO is bearish.
I simply like increasing my short EURNOK position on these spikes. I think this trade can be very interesting for the next 5-6 months.
Please read my previous post to see how this setup and trade has been developing.
Massive resistance area approaching The EURNOK is approaching a huge resistance area. Price hasn't broken this area since this time last year. I will definitely be watching this for either a long or short. Waiting for price action to confirm!
EURNOK Next Big MoveLong Term this most likely will make its way up to Monthly Resistance @ 9.6159
Short term- depending on the Sunday Gap I will be looking for a Buy Entry as low as possible before uptrend to Daily Resistance TP Goal @ .94835. Expecting a hard pull back before moving upwards to Monthly Resistance. This Should be a great Buy Trade . 250-300+Pips on the Daily Chart. I don't use Stop losses until in Profit so use risk Management .
5,000-6,000 pips of profit setting up here!EURNOK will do nothing for MONTHS and them WHAMMOOOO it goes crazy! Well this time crazy is awesome because it's helping confirm the big daily head and shoulders pattern we have.
We are looking for a 5000-6000 pip move here, large stops are required (above 9.50 right now) but much larger profits are expected. The break and retest will be good to help us get into this trade.
More details on this will unfold at ondemand.daytradersfx.com
EUR/NOK breaks major support 9.2570, good to go short on ralliesNorway's core inflation surged to record highs in July, dampening Norges Bank’s rate cut speculation.
The Krone has surged after inflation data release. EUR/NOK hit multi-week lows at 9.2094.
The pair has broken major trendline support at 9.2570 on the daily charts, we see scope for further downside.
50-DMA at 9.3507 is major resistance on the upside, while 9.1970 is next major support on the flipside.
Good to go short on rallies around 9.2500, SL: 9.3510, TP: 9.1970/ 9.1550/ 9.1375
EURNOK - possible long trade EURNOK has fallen to great support just above 9,20 area, including horizontal support and a long trendline since the bottom since april/may this year.
For now, we might have seen a whipsaw of possible longs, as the price was below trend support. If the price manage to go above the trend and close higher than current level, we might see a possible rebound.
Long trade setup:
Entry around 9,23-9,25. Stop if we close below 9,21 on a daily basis. target is set to 9,40.
Euro Nok der De Bullish ButterflyNok Nok, who's there? Bullish butterfly pattern.
Interesting harmonics coming up for EURNOK, ab=cd, bullish butterfly, with a .618 retrace from significant support to the top.
Rsi finding support. Butterfly's like to reverse quite quickly, but since they require large stops, it may be wise to wait until a reversal candle is shown.
Bulls were blocked again at weekly KijunIt is very interesting, that despite massive fall (more than -25 %) in WTI and Brent Oil prices, somehow neither NOK, nor CAD react that much. What can be the reasons behind NOK relative strength compared to Oil price action? Well I have a few ideas, but for technical traders it should not matter. Only price action should matter. And EURNOK price action has been diverging.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is still neutral, as price still holds within thick Kumo. What is very interesting, that despite price peaked above weekly Kijun Sen (26 weeks avg), Bulls were not strong enough to hold it above. We still have one more day until week end, but looks like recent candle close will be again below 9,45!
- Heikin-Ashi is used to filter price noise. But sometimes the noise is so laud, that goes through even the filter. Heikin-Ashi signals have been mixed for last 14 weeks. Sometimes it looks more bearish, then more bullish, but most often it reflects absolute indecision.
The last candle may become an inside cande, with a lower high. haDelta/SMA3 seems to turn down again.
- Let me get back to Ichimoku. There is one more important aspect there: Forward Senkou B, the orange line of the forward Kumo is up to 9,3680! This is the average price of the last 52 weeks! Meanwhile Senkou A (green) is very close to Senkou B -> thinner Kumo ahead would be easier to break.
This make 9,3650+ a very important key level! (soon you will see on daily too!)
- When price is below Kijun Sen but MACD crosses back above its signal line, also means indecision and range trading.
- EWO is slightly above zero, but no momentum gain.
- Real lower key level is 9,22
All in all it is a sleeping market, with still good chance to build a major Head and Shoulders top! H&S idea would be invalidated in case of a break and close above 9,55
Daily:
- It is a mess! Just because something is above or below the Kumo, doesn't mean firm bearish or bullish. Why? Because there is no trend without a substantial lower low or high! ANd this is exactly what has been reflected in the Ichimoku setup by absolutely flat longer term averages. Flat Kijun, llat Senkou A + flat Senkou B = thin and flat Kumo.
- Heikin-Ashi is in swing sell signal. It would be more bearish below 9,3675 again, but the real key level is still 9,20-9,22!
As you see the flat daily Kumo is in line with the weekly forward Senkou B. (Translation: 52 days average = 52 weeks average!).
- EWO shows only waves within a range, not much help.
- Also ATR shows extremely low volatility = typical sideaway mkt.
Below you can find my latest post on Oil. It is probably the most important factor for NOK. Besides this I have to mention, that NOK has been the worst perfoming G10 ccy in the last 3 years!!! And that has a consequence: higher, and continously increasing CPI in Norway! What if on top of this Oil once makes a reversal and start its target move to 60-65? Well, probably that would be a very good reason to sell massive amounts of EURNOK on the technical breakdown. But until further signals, just keep small short. Carry is slight positive.
EURNOK, 4H (Bearish Gartley Pattern).This trade should only be taken if we can limit our stops to lower level through a potential double top alongwith bearish RSI divergence. Look for retest o the previous structure at least.
Norway CPI beats estimations againPrice of Brent Oil is one thing. Inflation pick up caused by multi year ccy weakness is another thing. Today Norway's CPI numbers beatied all expectations on all front!
And finally, the price action of a ccy is the most important thing!
Weekly:
- Ichimoku neutral
- Possible long term Head and Shoulders is still in play, until Price holds below Kijun Sen (9,45)
- We have enterred the 12th week of sideaway consolidation. Sooner or later market will have t make a breakout from the 9,20 - 9,45 range
- EWO is close to zero
Earlier post on the link below.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, woth lot of mixed signals. Hard to follow Ichimoku alone, as the pair is clearly trading in a range.
- Heikin-Ashi candle and haDelta possibly signals a refusal of Kijun and range top again. As also ECB meeting is getting close, EURNOk can target 9,20+ again.
- EWO zig zag around zero.
I still like to keep 7-10 % of my overall portfolio in NOK. Yeah, I see the Oil is turning down again, but on the other hand there are a lot of positive arguments wh one should invest into the ccy of a real AAA rated, very innovative and liberal country, which has no debt at all! NOK has been a huge underperfomer in G10 for the last 3 years. Things tend to change at some point.
