About meI have been trading for more than 15 years (8 years as a professional interbank trader for bank treasuries.) I have always had a technical focus. I use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as my main tool. I am a full time trader, a private investor.
While I agree that long term valuation is quite distorted, which can mean either DAX is too low or SPX price is way too high, short tem I still do not see any technical justification to go long Germany against shorting US Equities.
I got one of the strongest fundamental reason from my smart Chief Economist: in Europe we do not have share buybacks, in US it is...
Machines are certainly more precise than human when it comes to trendline protection. :-)
Ichimoku setup is neutral with bearish bias, what makes us worry is the price action and the elevated level of volatility. It is cearly not bullish.
Once 2800 breaks, bearish acceleration will take place to a minimum measured target of 2600, but in fact no one can predic...
So far it is nothing else, just a bearish reaction (probably caused by some short squeeze from early morning Asia bears), right up to short term bearish support. Next wave will likely push it it lower.
While the general setup still has somehow bullish bias, it seems EURNOK is struggling to re-gain a real momentum to the upside. My indicators seem to be topish.
There is also a weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross.
Please note how close the 6 years bullish trendline is.
Price is also below weekly Kijun.
Key supports: 9,7150 / 9,63 (+/-)
We open some small short with...
- Priced failed to make a lower low for the second time. It seems bearish momentum cannot extend -> also reflected in EWO lows.
- Price has been forming a bullish wedge since Agust/2018. This barriers of the wedge are tightening.
- Volatility is extremely low.
- As Bund yields Will be somehow limited to the downside (it's already trading at -0,21 % today), but...
- Price consolidation within a possible bullish wedge
- Some positive divergence in haDelta+ and haOscillator. Both seem to cross up above their mid lines.
- Positive divergence in EWO
This oversold market may soon pop up, especially if USD starts to weaken.
Stay focused! Key reversal zone is 804-810.
- Trend is bullish, price penetrated downtrendline
- On the other hand Heikin-Ashi signals exhaustion and momentum divergence.
Some consolidation, or a minor pull back to 11830 - 12.050 zone is possible. Please note there is no harm to the trend until market holds above the 26 days avg and the cloud.
Strategy: reduce longs if you have, sell covered calls. If a...
- Ichimoku is neutral with price located in cloud
- Kijun Sen acts as major key support at 890
- Upper key level is 938 (forward Senkou B line)
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision with slight positive bias by haDelta+ and haOscillator
- EWO is positive
- Ichimoku is neutral, but as Kumo cloud is very thin and the horizontal key levels are close to each...
- After reaching a key supp/res level (Kijun Sen) Gold started to lose its swing bullish momentum. The reaction might be over short term.
- Ichimoku setup is neutral and will stay neutral for a while. Forward Kumo has negative bias.
- EWO is negative too.
We exitted all our remaining long gold positions at 1308.
Our relative value model scoring doesn't support...
While Ichimoku setup has minor bullish bias, Heikin-Ashi (other part of our system) signals a possible top: doji candle with haDelta and haOscillator crossing down from their peaks.
It seems USD Index may be capped by the range top again. No trend continuation until it delivers higher high on candle close.
Strategy: reduce USD long exposure.
- Downtrend (flattening) since 2014 (!)
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish. Key reversal points ar 0,20 % (Kijun + 1st trendline) and 0,35 % (Forward Senkou B + 2nd trendline) -> these two levels are absolutely critical, as if they break, the curve trend will change to a longer term strategic steepening
- Heikin-Ashi candles show consolidation since...
I don't say it is something to short, but it is certainly not a good risk/reward to buy or stay long in Eurostoxx50 at these levels.
- Ichimoku setup is neutral.
- EWO is back to neutral
- Heikin-Ashi candle is still bullish, but haOscillator shows an early warning signal of a possible momentum loss ahead in coming weeks.
- Price reached a very...