About meI have been trading for more than 17 years (8 years as a professional interbank trader for bank treasuries.) I have always had a technical focus. I use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as my main tool. I am a full time trader, a private investor.
To be honest, I have no clue why the High Yield and Junk bonds are performing so well, especially given the fact more than 80 % of these bonds are trading at a negative real yield. Probably there's still too much liquidity in the market, or as it often happens, portfolio managers just keep ignoring all risks, and happy to pick up every penny to make slightly...
Higher high, bullish cloud breakout on daily, bullish momentum indication on weekly and daily.
I highly recommend you to zoom out the weekly time frame, as space is clearly opened to 24-25 target zone.
DBC is going to be the relatively strongest and best performing asset class for months ahead. It is also the best hedge against a cost inflation pressure and for...
Please note, that this ia a yield chart, which means an upward move in yields is bearish in terms of BTP futures.
After reaching our initial bearish target, BTP yield retraced to daily Kijun Sen and is trading now at a very good risk/reward support zone, where we start to re-establish short bond positions to a 1,35-1,40 % target.
We will put on larger size in...
What you can't see just yet on a spot Ichimoku chart, you can confirm on these charts where I added slightly modified Kijun Sen lines.
Left panel (daily):
- Kijun Sen (26 days avg) 4 days from now will move above spot price to 123,41. -> first resistance
- I added weekly Kijun, which you see just ticked up to 119,55, but more importantly we already know that the...
Ichimoku setup is neutral, with some bullish bias in EWO and Heikin-Ashi indicators.
Earnings will be out two days from now.
As price is pretty close to Kumo and downtrend line, set your alerts and don't hesitate to enter long if it breaks out.
By the way, this stock has an excellent Dividend Yield, and they do serious steps to turn it more into a green energy company.
Mr. Market seems to question the ECB.
US yields are going higher again, and USD curve gets steeper every day. European long end bonds will sell off too. Both Bund and BTP yield will likely trade much higher and EUR curves will get steeper.
For the non FI experts: I put this post out as a SHORT Investment strategy, which means sell the 10y Italian bond (BTP) futures. Only in terms of yield charts it is a bullish picture as yields rise when bonds are sold.
Left panel: weekly chart of BTP/Bund (Italy 10y over German 10y bond) yield spread
Right panel: BTP Italy 10y yield
The yield already delivered...
SPX vs Russell2000 spread monthly chart.
We all know why technically Russell2000 has overperformed SP500 so much since October.
The question is can it be justified fundamentally in a rising rates environment, especially in times when credit spreads may start to widen too?
There are multiple bullish indication on the daily chart --> all marked with ellipses
We start to accumulate some of this stock. If a bullish breakout confirms, we will size up position.
Depending on the entry, potential RR is 1:4
Nasdaq100 has had an extreme overperformance relative to the broad market and all other sectors through many years. This trend may continue for the long run, but for now it has reached extremes and we have a few warning signals on the charts:
- We have seen a positive momentum divergence developing for weeks (reflecting in haDelta+, haOscillator and...
Spot setup is absolutely neutral, forward indication is slightly bearish. Market will likley be stuck in 3200-3400 range until US Elections.
Momentum indicators started to cross down. Bulls might try to force the index above 3400, but it would be a very difficult fight for now. I expect the market to top within 2-3 trading days and turn lower in the range.
Copper has been one of the best performing metals so far, but are things really that rosy to justify such a high price after such a long bull run?
Here are few points that worth to examine:
- The trend is still bullish, but I see a minor negative momentum divergence on the daily haOscillator, haDelta+ and EWO.
- There is a possible bearish wedge being formed on...
In case Bund fails at Kijun, and can't recapture the bullish trend, it will drop to 173-173,60 zone into the cloud.
Watch for further indication of momentum: a cross down of haDelta+ and haOscillator at their mid lines would be a bearish indication.
The same is true for US 10y Note (ZN) with 138'05 possible short term target. Surprisingly the two move together...
Gold: Nice and smooth bullish trend. Very comfortable long position even in larger size.
Silver: Bullish, maybe a bit of short squeeze too. Momentum is increasing.
Copper: Despite all the fears regarding global real economy, copper is also marching up with strong momentum, it doesn't show too long consolidation periods and dips on profit taking are shallow.