About meI have been trading for more than 17 years (8 years as a professional interbank trader for bank treasuries.) I have always had a technical focus. I use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as my main tool. I am a full time trader, a private investor.
Daily time frame has a bearish bias
Weekly time frame: Neutral to bearish bias. Watch spot and forward looking MONTHLY Kijun lines (dark blue and light blue) at 81,50 - 84,50! Should this range break on the downside, a massive bear market will start on Oil, which will likely put pressure on the whole commodity market.
For now use all spikes to buy longer...
Market is overshooting on better than expected US CPI.
A week ago media was loud of a looming recession. In fact recession will happen, that's the only way global inflation can come lower somehow.
Leave macro for now, just look at the strategic technical picture:
- Price is reaching weekly cloud and 100 weeks WMA.
- Momentum indicators are all stretched
It is simply a very bad risk/reward to be long of tech index at this level.
Look at the weekly. It looks even worse than SPX. The Monthly Kijun (especially the forward looking) is a hard resistance for this market. Weekly Kijun is well below Monthly Kijun.
Will there be rate cuts in the US? No. Even if rates market priced in the whole tightening cycle, I am...
- Some early sign of a possible momentum loss at key resistance (4140 - 4200)
- Watch haDelta+ and haOscillator
- EWO is still deep red (bearish)
- haDelta+ and haOscillator indicators are reaching their range tops, buyers may lose control within 1-3 weeks
- VERY IMPORTANT to see the forward looking Monthly Kijun sen (26 Months average calculated...
For now it seems like momentum is reversing from a higher low. If ECB announces something credible, it may trade up to 1,0570-1,07 zone again
Absolute key level is 1,0370. Overall setup is still far from a possible trend reversal, there will be a lot of work to do until it happes: 100WMA and weekly Kijun has to come down more to get closer to...
Generally speaking it is a very bad risk/reward to be long at these levels in European stocks.
Dax has shown some relative strength compared to US markets, but that can be simply due to the fact EURUSD got smacked to quite a low level,which may have resulted in some relative value trades and flows out from USA into Europe. Simply put, in USD terms European stocks...
Everything is written in the chart. It is quite simple... unless it shows only a minor and weak consolidation, refusing to trade much higher above 4100-4150. Then it would collapse straight down.
Anyway, it is also time to focus on EUR rates too. Next hit will come from ECB in form of rate hikes and liquidity withrawal.
Maybe yes, maybe not. It all depends on how ECB will react. reading them and the EUR bond curve price action suggest to me that they are about to finally give up their insane policy and go for some kind of normalization and tightenning soon. That would close the gap between blowing US yields and lagging EUR yields. I don't say a major trend reversal is imminent...
Obviously I have a very detailed view about why/how the US economy will shrink, how certain macro inputs will influence companies profit margins, sales, etc. and the overall market expectations on earnings. I also have a view about rates, bond curve and general liquidity, which will all have a serious further impact on the general multiplier in terms of SPX500...
- Ichimoku setup is neautral, with some bullish bias. Price attempts a bullish cloud breakout, which in case of a success would mean a break of the long term bearish trendline too.
- HA price action and indicators are positive
- EWO is picking up
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish. Price trades above weekly Kijun (26 weeks...
Spot weekly Kijun Sen is at 48900, but in 4 weeks time it is going to increase to 51200. Daily Kijun is also pushing price from above, currently at 52000. This 51200-52000 is becoming the first resistance zone.
100 day WMA has strarted to point down. The forward Kumo has a clear bearish indication too.
A close below 47000 would lead to an acceleration in...
US 5y yield is up appr. 8 bps today to 1.16 %. US 2y is moving at same pace. Yet, this odd German 5y Yield is still stuck at - 57 bps??? How long will it take until market starts testing ECB? How long can the European Central Bank communicqate the "transitory" BS narrative? How long until everybody realises that inflation is not only a US phenomenon, but a...
On daily time frame (left panel) the Ichimoku setup has turned absolutely Bullish. What's more, on back of another better than expected earnings reported today, the price action gave a buy signal and price started to attack a very long term trend line.
Funadmenytally all bad news had been discounted into price including Monsanto story, provisionings, etc.,...
Looks like some kind of base, but we need a bullish breakout and price action to confirm the idea. For now price is still in the thin Kumo, but holding nicely above Kijun Sen.
It is very simple: it needs a break and close above 24.45, where we have the very important weekly Kijun Sen too. Set an alert there.
Oh please.... 2y Note at 0,42 % .... I understand there might be a short term short squeeze which pushes the yield down to this level, all we have to do is use the move to start building outright short positions again.
The US bond curve has retraced to an optimal sell zone of 111-115 bps.
We have an obvious bearish signal in the cloud ahead.
Next leg down may reach 90 bps, and later possible to 71-79 ultimate target range.
For those who really put this on: Fixed Income Hedge Ratio for $ZN and $ZT contracts spread is 1:2. So you need to buy 1 ZN and sell 2 ZT against it to...