Unemployment vs. Fed Fund RatesRelationship between unemployment and rate cuts over the last 2 decades.
About Effective Federal Funds Rate
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The Most Important Week of the Year-End for the Stock Market!We are finally here.
The Fed is expected to resume lowering the federal funds rate this Wednesday, September 17. Here is what will really matter on Wednesday:
• The magnitude of the rate cut (0.25% or 0.50%)
• The update of the Fed’s macroeconomic projections (its forecasts for inflation, employ
Cut the Noise: The Fed Is on Track for a September Rate CutI’m seeing a lot of wild takes floating around right now, things like a surprise rate hike or claims that QE is driving us into a crash. That’s pure noise, and complete nonsense. The facts are straightforward: QT is still ongoing, the Fed’s balance sheet has been unwound (anyone can fact-check tha
FED, Certain Rate Cut on September 17We recently provided an analysis on the possible courses of action by the Federal Reserve (FED) starting from Wednesday, September 17, and until the end of the year.
Three major figures were still due before the September 17 FED meeting: the NFP report, a PPI, and a CPI. The NFP report has been re
Fed cut odds hit 97% ahead of Friday’s jobs report Markets are waiting for Friday’s U.S. NFP jobs report, which could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Traders want a result that supports the case for rate cuts but doesn’t raise fears of a weakening economy. The ADP private payrolls report showed 54,000 new jobs
The Fed rate and the 2-year yield as Macro OscillatorsOn August 4, we published a report analyzing the relationship between the 2-year yield and the Fed rate. At first glance, it looks like a technical oscillator, except in this case it represents market expectations for the 2-year rate. It embeds the expected real rate, expected inflation, and the ter
Interest Rate Projection In April, inflation was at its lowest point. It was also the month when the 'Liberation Day' tariffs were introduced, applying a 10% baseline tariff to most countries.
But it wasn’t until August—when the July Core CPI rose to 3.1% from its April low of 2.8%— and now investors began to question whet
85% probability of a rate cut on Wednesday September 17 (FED)Jerome Powell's press conference on Friday August 22 was eagerly awaited, as he was expected to outline the FED's planned monetary policy path between now and the end of the year. It should be remembered that the federal funds rate has not fallen since December 2024, and that the US labor market is
Is the FED already too late with its new regime?A Diverging Signal in the Labor Market
A noteworthy divergence is currently unfolding between two key U.S. labor market indicators, potentially signaling underlying shifts that are not immediately obvious from the headline unemployment rate. While the unemployment rate ( UNRATE ) has remained rela
Who will be the next Fed Chairman after Powell?Jerome Powell's term at the head of the Federal Reserve (FFED) ends in May 2026. The question of his succession is already underway, and is being actively pursued by the current Trump administration, which is seeking to change the governance of the Fed in order to secure a resumption of the US feder
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