cDon't listen to all the pundits when they tell you the market is strong. If you had to borrow money every year to keep up your lifestyle and pay off those debts with larger debts, would you say your personal economy is strong? No. That's exactly what the government has done for decades and the chickens are coming home to roost. The SPX (S&P 500) has been phantom collapsing since August 2021 but it's hidden by the larger weighted stocks. It's possible we see a quick rally before a huge sell-off, but I wouldn't place that bet. There are good companies that are down dramatically. Even Chipotle (CMG) is down 31% in the last 6 months which is a crash! Here are some more: Clorox (CLX) down 28%, BlackRock (BLK) down 28%, Paypal (PYPL) down 69%, Penn National Gaming (PENN) down 50%, Paycom (PAYC) down 39% and so many more.
The first area to break we need to be watching is the 3,700 level. The next is the 3,500-3,250 then the where there is a possible area of large support off the old pre-pandemic highs. Our average sell-off yellow bar is 3,000 - 2,800 as a very fair level of support. That isn't to say we can't have a 50% collapse or more, but this is a great starting point to average out and see where this may end. If we see banks folding, WW3, or anything along those lines, expect massive moves to the downside and then incredible inflation (FED money supply growth).
