Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well.
My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD
Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart.
In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end...
On the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert.
Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields...
Use rate of change on instruments that generally trend in only one direction over long periods.
Markets react and price-in accelerations or decelerations in that change.
#inflation #moneysupply #gold #spx
As the chart clearly shows more deficits more debt more money supply has not translated to an increased
labor force participation. I am sure you have heard Politicians & Economic hacks like MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)
use the words "Simulate the economy with deficits". Well in reality there hasn't been much "Stimulating" going on for
the labor force...
We can try to predict when the Federal Reserve may pivot to a less hawkish stance by using charts. Below are some helpful charts.
1. Money Supply
The chart shown above is a monthly chart of the U.S. money supply (M2SL).
The white line shows the money supply over time. Below the white line is a stepped moving average (9 period), which I consider the 'steps...
M2 year on year % change is dropped to negative territory in US
This is effect from 2022 FED Hawkish causing to Banking crisis
also impact to Risk assets around the world thru 2022
What should happen next must be policy U-Turn!!!
One question that many investors are asking right now is: How can I build wealth during monetary tightening?
To answer this question, one must understand how the money supply works.
The Money Supply
The money supply refers to the total amount of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. M2 is one of the most common measures of the U.S....
I have previously calculated that it would take the Fed's until 2031 to roll off all of their balance sheets. Based on projected trend, the M2 money supply will continue to go down to levels we haven't seen since 1985. By the time the job is done, there will be only 2.3T of USD in circulation, a decline of 88% in money supply.
Ladies and gentlemen. If this...
The chart shows two recent and unprecedented occurrences that may lead to an outcome of equally unprecedented proportions. In the past year the money supply
peaked and is still negative over a year since
reached peak liquidity
Causes include the effects of the pandemic, asset conversions spurred by tax reforms and corporate buybacks, rising...
Just saying, the M2SL has been stable for decades until the COVID economic response.
Now it looks like it's trying to correct.
I'm no economist, but it doesn't look good.
Could someone more knowledgeable than I please make sense of it for me.
Money are dropping. As you can se we had a small pump back to the averages but sei to h the current tightening even though there is a lot of pivot sentiment, we have no other choice but go lower.
M2 money supply has been expanding since dropping the gold standard in 1971. They've stopped the printer for 147 days and we're already seeing markets break.
#everythingbubble
Just playing around with M2 money supply chart the reason we have inflation ! We have increased M2 by 40% in the last 2 years a process which usually takes 5-6 years historically.
"Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of financial markets."
-John C. Bogle
The gold price has some serious catching up to do, and will likely start the next leg higher as soon as the Fed is forced to pause its rate hikes. Gold miners will outperform in this scenario...
