If the bear market has started, and if there is going to be a very long consolidation, the the next floor is likely ~$14.5k shoudl we make it below this wave down target of $26.5k I have. Then it will be time to exit the bull trap.
Ideally we would see a tag of the (log) trendline shown here. Not sure yet if we saw the peak of risk-on or this is forming a type of descending wedge and we can expect some sort of breakout next year? With Fed's jawboning tapering (the T word), markets cooled off early IMO, I expect that type of talk to be backpedalled as soon as any collateral/asset/market...
If in the next 24 hours the daily candle closes and daily 21 EMA stays crossed below the 55 daily EMA, this has signaled a bull trap and serious down move in the past.
Bitcoin bounced at the daily 128MA support band today as well as weekly 21 EMA and 20 MA. It needs to hold these levels.
Green line is daily 21 EMA
Blue line is daily 55 EMA
The parabolic ascents seem to end in a couple cases around spring 2023 (April) if the parabolas are correct and hold up. This is all based on the magic of compounding (debt). At some point the debt bubble gets too big and pops.
Bitcoin closed Nov 2021 monthly candle exactly on the mid-level of the log regression rainbow. This should be a bullish continuation signal to me as it's neutral but last few months were still bullish.
Internet Computer DFiniity looking ready for a start to breakout after a very prolonged accumulation this period. In part this was due to the valuation at launch and reality came back given the token issuance, but now looks ready for a potential mark up.
A lot can mess this up like a gray swan event with crypto market tanking.
If you consider inflation adjusted, Japan's stock market loss of purchasing power has to be much greater than 80% from the peak of 1989 with all the currency creation they have embarked on.
Could this happen to the US next? Possibly.