Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent.
Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin , using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results.
Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have...
ABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL
NVT Signal (Credit: woobull.com) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin, and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network.
This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a...
The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk.
While not flawless, this indicator gives a good picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets.
All of the last seven...
In the last 50 years, every time US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it drops 37.6% on average.
Assuming you can...
The mean time between official (NBER) US recessions over the last 150 years has increasing a lot (see gray lines).
Yet the S&P 500 % drops remain relatively consistent averaging 25%.
The market is considerably stabler than it was a century ago.
Gazprom has been undervalued for years, so why buy today? The price spike of 2019 shows a change of sentiment. Investors are now willing to dip their toes into Gazprom.
Statistically, stocks that are trading at 12-month highs, perform better in the long term than otherwise. So the 2019 price spike is actually another good reason to consider investing in...
The simple ratio of GOLD / S&P500 provides clarity of when it is best to be invested in Gold or Stocks:
- When the ratio index > 200 week moving average, Gold has historically outperformed stocks (S&P500).
- When the ratio index < 200 week moving average, investing in stocks yielded the best returns.
Following this simple strategy from 2001 would have yielded a...
Historically Bitcoin and Gold have not shown a consistent correlation (measured here as 100 day Beta).
But as Bitcoin solidifies as an institutional asset and market hedge, will we see Bitcoin become digital Gold and have a strong correlation to Physical Gold?