Production cost is about to double to $14,000.
70% above the current price.
Last halving, price was just 10% below Production cost, and Price & Hash Rate collapsed -20%.
Bitcoin Production Cost script just updated with the latest data:
- CBECI electrical data as at 11 May 2020
- Now uses 2 week rolling data for finer granularity (while balancing TradingView...
Hash Ribbon Buy
The Bitcoin Buy signal which occurs about once a year just fired.
Note: The halving is just 2 weeks away. Expect another signal within the next 3 months, like 2012 and 2016.
Historically this means that the next 30 days is a great time to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Hash Ribbon Buy signal is occuring.
However, this may be the most high risk signal to date.
- All halvings have had another capitulation
- Miners are running at break even today
- Global recession = tighter liquidity = credit crunch
In 2020 there is a greater probability of more miners defaulting.
All prior halvings had another capitulation within 3...
In 1872 George Tritch documented a strategy for when to Buy and Sell stocks over the next 200 years.
While Buy and Hold performed better, it is pretty impressive that a strategy documented almost 150 years ago had a 91% hit rate.
The strategy also identified the (near) peaks of major crashes including 1929, 1999, 2007 and 2020.
Two key learnings:
1. Buy and...
It is exactly 3 months since Trend King was publicly released.
I am happy to announce the 1st quarter real-life results:
That's over +400% annualized ROI.
🤛25X #Bitcoin buy & hold returns with no leverage.
A $10K investment --> $15K = subscription fees paid off multiple times over.
This includes trading fees 60% higher than BitMEX and Binance and...
Did you buy $BTC?
The Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Buy (indicator released October 2019) was exactly one month ago today.
Let's check in on performance to date:
- Max downdraw: -5%
- Max Returns: +26%
So far, all within the normal historical range.
A Wyckoff view of Bitcoin
Potential "Accumulation" pattern forming.
Intermediate target: ~$7800
My bias is bullish given the weight of fundamental evidence for a bottom. But even if this is a Wyckoff "Re-distribution" (bad) $7800 test likely.
Safest entry is on confirmation.
Bitcoin is currently trading at a ~35% discount to its energy value, suggesting a value opportunity for the long-term investor.
Further, the Bitcoin Energy Value Oscillator shows a near identical 3-step pattern to the prior bull markets.
Trend King V2 includes all Trend King V1 Technical Indicators + fundamentals for additional return and reduced historical draw-downs:
Hash Rate Bottom Fishing
BitMEX Sniper Mode - for the Hard Code trader
Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.
A visualization of Bitcoin Hash Rate vs Difficulty.
This helps to show why Difficulty is a lagging indicator.
Difficulty is like a moving average that only updates once every 2 weeks.
Increased Difficulty is not necessarily good... Hash Rates are better for timing capitulation.
The Metric we have been tracking closely the last days has finally confirmed.
The 1 and 2 month Hash Rates have crossed. We are in a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation.
The only question now is, how deep will we go.
Trend King officially launched on 3 November - so far we can't complain with the first trade!
Trend King subscribers currently sitting happy SHORT through Bitcoin's volatility:
- Up 12% from launch date
- Trade up 15% from "SELL" signal
PM me for more info and to get in on the action!
The current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin.
The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event.
We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR)
In November 2019, "Growth" has...
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons are extremely close to a potential Miner Capitulation.
Should a Capitulation occur (crossover of the ribbons), it is not the time to be buying Bitcoin.
The best times to buy Bitcoin is on Hash Rate recovery, as identified by this indicator.
For now, we are "still in the green", and Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed.