RISK ON or OFF? UNDERSTAND THE MARKET ENVIRONMENT YOU ARE IN!!!you've all heard of the terms RISK ON or RISK OFF but what does it actually mean and how does it impact currency pairs....how can it help you make better informed trades
Trade ideas
AUDJPY ShortAUDJPY is now net short on the regression break.
I am considering all JPY pairs as it appears a market correction may build.
AUDJPY 4Hour TF - August 3rd,2025🟦 AUDJPY 4H Analysis Bearish Idea
📅 August 3rd, 2025
🔹 Top-Down Trend Bias:
• Monthly – Bullish
• Weekly – Bullish
• Daily – Bullish
• 4H – Bearish
AUDJPY has broken cleanly below prior structure around 96.15, signaling short term bearish momentum within a higher timeframe bullish environment. Price is currently approaching key decision zones.
🔍 Key Zone: 96.15 – 96.45
This former support zone may now act as a bearish retest area and new resistance. This offers a potential entry for continuation plays if structure holds below.
✅ Scenario A: Bearish Continuation (Blue Path)
1.If price retests and rejects from 96.15–96.45
2.Look for bearish confirmation (rejection wicks, engulfing, LTF structure shift)
Target: 94.50
This setup is trend aligned with current 4H momentum and offers a clean structure based downside.
⚠️ Scenario B: Bullish Reclaim (Orange Path)
1.If price breaks and holds above 96.45
2.Could signal a shift back toward higher timeframe bullish continuation
Target: 97.20 resistance zone
This is a counter-trend idea on the 4H and requires confirmation
🧠 Final Notes
• Short-term bearish bias while price remains below 96.45
• Let the retest confirm the direction
• Clean structure = clean setups
AUD/JPY H4 SHORT SETUP – 4 August 2025📊 Trade Plan: AUD/JPY – August 2025
🧠 Summary:
AUD/JPY has broken a clear ascending channel and retested the breakdown area, aligning with a marked sell zone. Institutional data supports JPY strength and AUD weakness, while trend projections suggest downside momentum into mid-August.
1. Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Channel Break: Price broke below the rising trendline after a multi-week uptrend.
Sell Zone: 95.98 area, acting as broken structure + pivot resistance.
TP Target: ~92.30 — near key historical support and S2 area.
Bearish Structure: Lower highs forming after failed breakouts above 97.15.
Pivot Resistance & Supply Clusters align with the sell zone.
🔔 Technical Bias: Bearish
2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Sentiment
Currency Long % Short % Δ Weekly
AUD 20.22% 79.78% +1.14% (slightly more bearish)
JPY 68.99% 31.01% -5.01% (stronger bullish sentiment)
Institutions are highly short AUD and long JPY, supporting bearish AUD/JPY.
🔔 COT Bias: Strongly Bearish
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail Traders:
64% long AUD/JPY, 36% short.
This contrarian signal supports a bearish bias, since retail is heavily long while price is breaking down.
🔔 Retail Bias: Bearish
4. Trend Projection
All models (green, black, red) suggest:
Short-term bounce around 96.5–97.2
Medium-term decline into 95.5, 95.0, then 94.5–94.0 by Aug 6–7
Bearish scenario points to 93.5 and lower.
🔔 Projection Bias: Bearish
Focus sell on AJHappy weekend guys. On last week AJ has formed a huge engulfing candle bear. Looking closer at small time frame, price has formed a double top and it had actually broker the neckline to end the week. I am going to find any possible short setups, targeting 1:1 on this formation. It does seem start to continue the downtrend at long term though...
AUDJPY-Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern at Reversal levelThe AUDJPY pair has formed a classic Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, typically a strong bullish reversal signal. As seen on the daily chart, the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder have all developed with a clearly defined neckline near the 95.80–96.00 zone. Price action recently broke above this neckline but has since entered a consolidation phase between 95.00–97.00.
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Confirmation)
If AUDJPY decisively breaks above the 97.00 resistance with strong bullish momentum and volume, the inverted head and shoulders pattern will be fully confirmed. In this case, traders can expect an upward continuation toward:
Short-term Target: 99.00
Medium-term Target: 101.00
Measured Move Target: ~102.00 based on pattern height
Risk:
False breakout followed by quick pullback under neckline
Sudden JPY strength due to geopolitical or fundamental news
AUD weakness due to interest rate decisions or economic data
Sideways/Neutral Scenario (Extended Consolidation)
Another possibility is that AUDJPY continues to range between 95.00–97.00 for an extended period without a decisive breakout. This may happen if the market awaits more macroeconomic cues or central bank guidance.
Risk:
Whipsaws and fakeouts within the range
Frustration due to lack of clear direction
Risk Management Tips:
Wait for confirmation: Only trade post breakout or breakdown with candle close above 97.00 or below 95.00
Use tight stop-loss: Keep stops just below support or above resistance zones
Position sizing: Avoid overleveraging in rangebound conditions
Diversify exposure: Don’t put all capital into one trade setup
Conclusion:
AUDJPY is at a critical decision point. The inverted head and shoulders structure is bullish in nature, but the current consolidation adds uncertainty. Traders should stay alert for either a breakout for trend continuation or a breakdown invalidating the setup. Use proper risk management in all cases.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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AUDJPY at Resistance: Could we see a reversal here?The market on this pair shows us a classic scenario where price presses into a resistance zone after a sustained bullish move. Price action approaching this zone appears hesitant, with smaller candles and wicks showing signs of exhaustion, meaning the possibility that buying momentum is weakening. There is a clear intention in this structure and I am anticipating a reversal here.
My first target (TP1) at 95.400 is placed just above a previous structure low and it’s a logical level for a partial exit, as price may pause or react there. The second target (TP2), placed even lower, hints at a full mean reversion idea targeting the origin of the previous bullish leg.
The setup requires patience, waiting for confirmation perhaps in the form of a strong bearish rejection before committing to the short. Overall, it’s a disciplined setup that mirrors the kind of analysis I like to gravitate toward: structured, simple and driven by high probability reversal zones.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDJPY: goodbye uptrend?On the 4H chart, AUDJPY has printed a textbook double top pattern, breaking the rising trendline and diving below the 95.6–95.78 support zone - now acting as resistance. The pair is currently retesting this zone from below, which often provides a clean re-entry point for bears.
This area also aligns with the 0.705–0.79 Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing it as a key resistance. If the price rejects this zone, the next target is 93.85 (1.618 Fibo projection), followed by 93.25 and potentially 91.71 if momentum strengthens.
Fundamentally, the yen gains strength on risk-off flows and diverging rate expectations, while the Australian dollar is pressured by falling commodity prices and a likely pause from the RBA. This widens the rate differential and weakens AUD.
As long as price remains below 95.78, sellers are in control. Watch for a rejection from this retest zone.
AUDJPY Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
AUD/JPY LONG AUD/JPY LONG " break of a resistance area and retest it + 38.2% fib retracement + 50 and 200 ema dynamic support + risk on environment "
AUD/JPY bulls eye 99, 100The yen is broadly weaker, which is even allowing a weaker Australian dollar to rise. And with a decent bullish trend on the daily chart, I am now seeking dips within a recent consolidation range in anticipation of a move to 99 or even 100.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
AUD/JPY POSSIBLE SETUPThis pair has made a clean 3-leg pullback into a solid resistance zone.
Price action is now near the 50 EMA — a key area we watch closely.
From here, we’re waiting for confirmation:
✅ Strong volume
✅ Aligned momentum
✅ A clear engulfing candle
If all of that lines up, we’ll drop to the 1-hour chart and look for a precise entry trigger using the VMS strategy.
Patience first. Execution second.
Let the setup come to you.
AUDJPY Bullish Continuation Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 97.527
Resistance Level 2: 98.091
Resistance Level 3: 99.00
Support Level 1: 96.00
Support Level 2: 95.574
Support Level 3: 95.060
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
AUDJPY Poised to Start a Distribution Phase to 98.70AUDJPY Poised to Start a Distribution Phase to 98.70
On the 60-minute chart, AUDJPY has completed the accumulation phase, and it appears that AUDJPY is preparing for a breakout phase.
This is happening on the 60-minute chart.
The price that has already formed a pattern has a lower form and chances are that it may fall further from this area.
If this happens, AUDJPY may start another impulsive downward move.
In the overall picture, AUDJPY faced a strong resistance near 97.30 and is indicating a downward move to 95.70.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Falling towards overlap support?AUD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 95.65
1st Support: 94.82
1st Resistance: 96.69
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Disclaimer:
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AUD-JPY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-JPY made a bearish
Breakout of the rising support
Line and we are bearish biased
So we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Trendline BreakThe price has broken out of a bullish trendline, followed by a pullback and now the price looks to make a lower low and go short
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
AUDJPY - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermM15 - Strong bearish move.
No opposite signs.
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W31 | D30 | Y25
📊 AUDJPY – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W31 | D30 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:AUDJPY
AUDJPY 24.07.2025+~ RBA is relatively hawkish
+~ Political uncertainty around JPY
+~ Positive trade deals anticipation
*Swing trade; giving a room for a reasonable pullback; will potentially look to scale in at the resolve of a newly-formed structure.
AUD/JPY Poised for Breakout After Liquidity Trap? 🔍 Key Observations:
🔻 Trendline resistance holding strong, forming lower highs.
📉 Sell-side liquidity resting just below horizontal support (marked zone).
💧 Price dipped into liquidity grab zone twice — sign of stop hunt.
🔁 Classic accumulation schematic forming — repeated sweeps before potential breakout.
📊 Volume divergence: Selling pressure weakening while liquidity is swept.
📉 RSI shows bullish divergence (price making lower lows, RSI making higher lows).
🔁 Rejection at RSI 40-level could indicate a bounce.
📈 Expectation:
One more fake breakdown below 96.500 could trigger aggressive buying — setting up a potential parabolic move toward 97.200+ if breakout occurs.
AUDJPY TRADE IDEA UPDATE AUDJPY also made a pullback to our Fibonacci level and has made a move to the upside.
