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DCE Soybean Oil Futures

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SBO Bottoming OutlookAfter the bottoming of 37.66 in August 2024 the market went sluggish, but it maintained a bullish swing where rising bottoms were exhibited. A rounded bottoming pattern presented itself with a divergence showing towards the current recent low 48.27 and MACD is moving into positive territory suggest upside potential. Leaning on the wave principle, wave c is likely in the making toward the prior wave b (yellow) as an objective. Support from the rounded bottom formation together with the wave count mitigate a firmer market in the months ahead.
CBOT:ZL1!
by micchua
Technical analysis across soybeans mix (ZL, ZS & ZM) and HOTechnical analysis across soybeans (ZS), soymeal (ZM), soybean oil (ZL), and NY Harbor ULSD (HO) points to an imminent shift in trend for soybean oil, with strong prospects for a reversal and medium-term recovery. Soybean Oil (ZL) – Daily Chart Focus Support Zone & Anchored VWAP: ZL has reached the “golden pocket” reversal area between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (48.48–46.63), confirming major technical support. Current price action is also interacting with an anchored VWAP—suggesting that this is a fair value zone for institutional buyers and sellers. Momentum & Volume: RSI is at oversold levels and volume is elevated, indicating potential exhaustion of selling and fresh accumulation. Candle formation shows lower wicks at support, hinting at strong defensive buying. Reversal Scenario: Should ZL reclaim the VWAP on a daily close and RSI begins to turn up, it would confirm a high-probability reversal. If this support zone breaks, the next anchor is 45.75–43.85. Soy Complex – Soybeans (ZS) & Soymeal (ZM) Soybean (ZS) : Both daily and weekly charts show breakout momentum, above prior resistance, on sharply rising volume and RSI. Price structure favors continued upside, which helps stabilize weaker components, including ZL. Soymeal (ZM) : Shows extreme outperformance, with a runaway weekly breakout and volume spike. This leads the soy complex higher and increases the likelihood that soybean oil finds foothold and rebounds if ZS and ZM remain strong. NY Harbor ULSD (HO) – Energy Market Link Trend & Support: HO! remains on a bullish trajectory with strong support, base-building above key volume areas. RSI is positive, supporting a further rally. BOHO Spread Implications: Strong HO prices tighten the BOHO spread, which directly enhances biofuel blending margins for soybean oil. This translates to increased discretionary demand for ZL when energy markets are trending higher. Combined Outlook: Soybean Oil’s Trend & Prospect | Market | Current Trend | Signal for ZL | Outlook for Soybean Oil | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Breakout, bullish | Supportive | Underpins stability | | Soymeal | Explosive rally | Strong leadership | Increases reversal odds | | ULSD (HO) | Bullish, stable | BOHO favorable | Fuels biofuel demand | | Soybean Oil | Testing strong support | Oversold, ready to turn | High-probability reversal | Final Read: Soybean oil is at its most statistically reliable technical reversal zone, supported by strength in the broader soy complex and a bullish energy market. If buyers defend the golden pocket and reclaim anchored VWAP, a trend reversal and corrective rally are highly probable. Price action, volume, and momentum are all aligned for a mean reversion if confirmation occurs in upcoming sessions.
CBOT:ZL1!
by Southwind-CT
Analysis techniques – Soybean Oil Futures (Dec 2025)Analysis techniques – Soybean Oil Futures (Dec 2025) Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZLZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure Soybean oil (Dec 2025) closed at 50.41 cents/pound (+0.16%), consolidating within a tight range of 49.5 – 50.5. After a prolonged decline since July, the market is forming a temporary base but remains under bearish pressure. Current structure suggests indecision, awaiting a breakout from the consolidation box. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 50.5 – 53.7 – 56.9 Support: 49.0 – 46.5 – 41.8 3. Detailed Technical Analysis Short-term trend: Sideways consolidation in 49.5 – 50.5; breakout will set next direction. Volume: Average trading volume, limited new flows. Wave structure: The prior bearish wave is stalling; a corrective rebound could emerge if 50.5 is breached. Confirmation signals: A close above 50.5 opens upside toward 53.7 – 56.9; a break below 49 targets 46.5 – 41.8. 4. VNC View Short term, soybean oil is in a fragile balance. A breakout from 49.5 – 50.5 range will provide a clear trading signal. Medium term, global vegetable oil supply (palm, sunflower) exerts strong competition, limiting sustainable rallies unless supported by crude oil or biodiesel demand. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Long Setup (on breakout): Entry: 50.6 – 51.0 TP: 53.7 – 56.9 SL: 49.5 Probability: 60% Short Setup (on breakdown): Entry: 48.8 – 49.0 TP: 46.5 – 41.8 SL: 50.5 Probability: 55% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Edible oil producers: May hedge raw material costs near 49 – 50. Biodiesel industry: Watch 50.5 breakout; increase hedging if confirmed. Exporters: Favor partial selling near 53.7 – 56.9 during rallies to avoid downside risks toward 46 – 42.
CBOT:ZLZ2025Short
by Hung-JK
Soybean Oil Weekly Roundup - September 12, 2025🌱 Soybean Oil Weekly Roundup by Southwind 🌱​ 🗓️ Week ending: September 12, 2025 📊 Price & Chart Daily: Soft close with momentum lagging as price hovers below key moving averages on the rebound, keeping near-term tone steady but unconfirmed for trend expansion. Weekly: A strong rounded-bottom base has been forming since 2024; if confirmed above the neckline, historical pattern behavior supports further upside follow-through. 🟢 Key Technicals Support: 51.13–49.79 (retracement zone and high-volume area acting as the pivotal demand cluster). Resistance: 57.17 level (major weekly barrier); a decisive breakout and close above would confirm an advancing phase. RSI: Neutral on both timeframes, not yet stretched to overbought, leaving room for extension if buyers press the advantage. 🌾 Soybean Factor Soybeans remain in a constructive setup, and the crush linkage typically transmits strength from soybeans into soybean oil pricing via processing margins and product correlations. 🧭 Fundamentals U.S. soybean oil use for biofuel is held at 15.5B lbs for 2025/26, reflecting policy support and explicitly reducing exports, which tightens global supply and is price‑positive when demand persists. Industry and media coverage echo USDA’s view that biofuel makers could consume over half of U.S. soyoil next year, implying materially lower exports and firmer global pricing baselines. India’s import mix flexes with relative prices—recently favoring soyoil when cheaper versus palm—but flows can pivot back to palm as spreads shift, shaping the global veg‑oil balance near term. MPOC expects China and India demand to rise when palm is “reasonably priced,” making the palm–soyoil relationship a key transmission channel for price support across oils. Technicals 🧭​ 💼 Flows & Traders Positioning and flows remain measured, but cross-complex momentum can build if soybeans lead and spreads favor product-led rotation into soybean oil and palm on relative value. 🚦 Triggers 🟢 Bull signal: Break and weekly close above 57.17 with participation, ideally accompanied by continued soybean strength and supportive crush margins. 🟡 Range/neutral: Bounces from 51.13–49.79 keep rotation intact; expect choppy trade unless a soybean-led impulse accelerates. 🔴 Bear risk: A clean loss of 49.79 opens a deeper base test toward lower weekly supports before any renewed attempt to resolve higher. #Soybean Oil #ZL1! #ZL
CBOT:ZL1!
by Southwind-CT
Soybean Oil Weekly Roundup - Week ending: Aug 29, 2025🌱  Soybean Oil Weekly Roundup by Southwind 🌱 🗓️ Week ending: Aug 29, 2025 📊 Price & Chart - Daily: Soft close, momentum weak, price under key moving averages. - Weekly: Strong **rounded bottom** base building since 2024. Soybean’s bullish setup may help push soy oil higher. 🟢 Key Technicals - Support: 51.13–49.79 (retracement zone, high volume area). - Resistance: 57.17 level (major weekly barrier). Breakout above confirms uptrend. - RSI: Neutral, still not overbought. 🌾 Soybean Factor - Soybeans are in a bullish pattern, which usually lifts soybean oil due to their processing link (crush spread correlation). 🧭 Fundamentals - USDA: Ample US stocks, balance sheet steady for now. - Biofuels: Bigger 2025/26 demand projection supports medium-term outlook. ⛽ - Vegoil Market: Palm/sunflower still weighing on short-term prices, but watch for reversal. 💼 Flows & Traders - Specs still cautious, but cross-commodity rally potential as soybeans lead. Prepare for possible upside if bull trend develops. 🚦Triggers - 🟢 Bull signal: Break above 57.17 with volume and soybean strength. - 🟡 Range/neutral: Bounce from support, chop likely unless soybean rally accelerates. - 🔴 Bear risk: Loss of 49.79 support zone targets deeper base. #Soybean Oil #ZL1! #ZL
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Southwind-CT
high RR opportunity as sellers return to support in uptrend 1->4 : creates higher highs and lows, making numebr 1 a major market low when number 2 surpassed the previous pivot before this count, and number 3 a solid market low when number 4 surpassed number 2 4->5 : we return to solid major buyers in number 3 , I decided to make the pivot here becase this is the horizontal intersection of all 3 candles making this pivot without violating any of the candle bodies what do I think will happen ? * with a fractal higher high in the candles it shows a good sign that we might continue up from here and if the pattern and momentum/trend follows continue and surpass number 4 at some point * we are on an uptrend and have returned to fill a gap with bullish candles at this point on the daily timeframe * bullish divergence on both RSI and MFI * oversold on both RSI and MFI * zones have a 62% follow through rate on bullish follow throughs , over past 2,500 candles, you can reduce lookback to a few hundred and manually count using replay to ensure its only realtime counts, this helps in confirming our stop loss as well as a breakeven ( and potentially add position ) and take profit point.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by jacesabr_real
Why Soybean Oil Outperforms Crude Oil?From their recent lows, soybean oil has quietly crept up by 50%, while crude oil has risen by 40%. The reason goes beyond the recent renewal of tensions in the Middle East — it runs deeper than that. Mirco SoybeanOil Futures Ticker: MZL Minimum fluctuation: 0.02 per pound = $1.20 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by konhow
Why the Sudden Surge in Soybean Oil Prices?Recent sharp increases in Chicago soybean oil prices reflect a confluence of dynamic global and domestic factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting crude oil markets, have played a significant role, as evidenced by the recent surge in Brent crude futures following events in the Middle East. This volatility in the broader energy complex directly influences the cost and strategic value of alternative fuels, positioning soybean oil at the forefront of this market shift. A primary driver of this ascent is the transformative policy initiatives from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA's proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 represent an aggressive push towards increased domestic biofuel production. These mandates, significantly exceeding previous targets, aim to bolster U.S. energy security and provide substantial support for American agriculture by boosting demand for soybeans and their derivatives. Key changes, such as the transition to RIN equivalents and reduced RIN costs for imports, are designed to further incentivize domestic consumption and reshape market dynamics. This policy-driven demand fundamentally reorients the U.S. soybean oil market, causing Chicago Board of Trade futures to increasingly reflect internal American forces rather than global trends. This necessitates a shift in focus for traders towards physical market prices in other regions for international insights. The market has reacted swiftly, with notable increases in futures prices, a surge in open interest, and record trading volumes, indicating strong investor confidence in soybean oil's role within this evolving landscape. Concurrently, the new mandates exert pressure on imported biofuel feedstocks, further solidifying the emphasis on domestic supply. Ultimately, the rise of soybean oil prices signifies more than just market speculation; it marks a pivotal transformation. It positions soybean oil as an essential commodity within the U.S.'s energy independence strategy, where robust domestic demand, shaped by forward-looking policy, becomes the prevailing force. This transition underscores how intertwined agricultural markets now are with national energy objectives and global geopolitical stability.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by UDIS_View
Soybean Oil Futures: Bearish Retest Signals Further Downside The price is now failing to maintain above the short-term moving average, hinting at weak bullish follow-through. ZLN2025 is showing signs of exhaustion after an uptrend, with bearish pressure increasing. If bulls fail to reclaim $49.00, the next leg could favor a continuation downward toward $46 and lower. Price broke below the short-term moving average (20 EMA) and is now testing it as resistance. This type of retest often precedes continuation of the down move.
CBOT:ZLN2025Short
by Sahrin
ZLH 15m Long 2025-01-20 10:50PM Maybe I should call this a 5m timeframe. I did my analysis on a 15m, but refined my zones on a 5m. Also, I was doing my analysis late on the 20th, and was seeing my target as the upper curve. If I had taken that trade, I would have wanted to follow with my stop, but I was about to go to sleep, so if my entry was filled, I wouldn't have been able to manage the trade, so I went to sleep. Upon further analysis the following morning, I realized that, by looking for a target on the 5m, I would have found a good target for a limit order. So if I had been able to stay awake, this would have been my setup: - Upper curve found on 1h on Jan 15: *** 46.53-17.10 *** - Lower curve found on 1h at 1am Jan 9: *** 41.27-41.05 *** - Entry zone: 45.81-45.77 - Target zone: 46.12-46.33 My question is: Would that have been a good trade based on solid analysis, or am I just seeing in hindsight that it *would* have worked, and tailoring my analysis to fit what the market actually did but based on weak data? Like maybe my profit zone should have been drawn based on the high on 1/16 at 06:30 or so?
CBOT:ZLH2025Long
by theseekerhp
Review of the markets1.15. 25 I went through a few markets today and I wanted you to see the repetitive nature of certain trade signals and I will explain this in more detail in the video. I always look for trades with a small stop..... I always look for 2 bar reversals. if you can get into a trade with a small stop and it moves in the direction of that stop because it's a two-bar reversal you will find that many of your trades will be profitable and that most of your trades will not stop you out at least for a while. the entries are systemic and you should expect to look at markets that you calculate will go in a certain direction with a small stop... but sometimes you don't want to take the trade because you're just not certain of that.... and it's okay to walk away from a trade because you don't lose money if you don't take a trade. what happens when you make an effort not to be so impulsive that you must take a trade this gives you a chance to study the market without impulsive trade decisions when the Market's not clear enough. learn from a trade that looks like it might work but you didn't like it enough to take the trade. you'll get better at it but if you trade every trade that comes along regardless of your conviction you're learning to trade impulsively and that's going to lose your money and stop you from Trading the market because it doesn't take too many losing trades before you conclude that it's not worth it. when you enter a trade you should have a Target and a stop..... some trades if you look for the buyers and the sellers will automatically tell you when you don't have a good trade when you approach it when you look for where the buyers and the sellers are at the time your contemplating an entry.
CBOT:ZL1!
by ScottBogatin
2
Head & Shoulders trap on Soybean OilSoybean Oil has drawn a nice Head & Shoulders pattern. After breaking the neckline, the market should have fallen - but it did the opposite, it's rising. Now, short sellers are trapped, and the market is set to punish them. They have stop losses in obvious places - TARGET 1 is the minimum the market is going to hit. TARGET 2 is very probable in my opinion; long term, Soybean Oil is in an uptrend, and the H&S failure was the Bears' last breath.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by VineyardWave