QQQ: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
Balance of buyers and sellers on the QQQ pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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QQQ trade ideas
QQQ Market Context – Where We StandQQQ has been grinding higher and is now pressing into a major resistance cluster at $590–$595. This is not just a random line in the sand — it’s a confluence of long-term channel resistance (weekly chart red lines) and short-term supply zones (15m chart).
Whenever price tests a heavy resistance cluster like this, the risk/reward equation shifts: upside potential shrinks while downside risk expands. That doesn’t mean the uptrend is broken, but it does mean chasing longs up here is dangerous. Smart money tends to lighten up at resistance and reload lower. Weekly structure: QQQ is still in a broad uptrend channel. Pullbacks into green support lines have consistently been bought.
Trading Scenarios
🔴 Bearish Reversal (High-Probability Play)
Look for QQQ to stall between $590–$595. Watch for reversal patterns (double tops, bearish engulfing, lower highs on 15m).
Shorts here offer defined risk/reward: Stops just above $600, downside targets at $580 → $574.
QQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)QQQ : Stay heavy on positions
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
QQQ Macro + Technical for QQQMacro supports the bullish continuation case ($600–$630), unless $568 breaks & macro data worsens
Fed pivoting dovish, disinflation holding, AI-driven earnings resilience & strong liquidity
High valuations, crowded positioning & possible macro shocks (yields spiking, geopolitics)
The $568 neckline & $583 breakout line up with the macro inflection
Fed easing cycle starting is bullish fuel if neckline holds
Any surprise inflation/yield spike results in a neckline break, correction to $550
Next 2–3 Weeks
1.Bullish Breakout $583 to $600–$616 (50%)
Supported by Fed pivot + earnings resilience
2. Bearish Breakdown $568 to $550–$537 (35%)
Triggered by yields/inflation surprise or positioning unwind
3. Chop/Range ($568–$583) (15%)
Market waiting on Fed September decision
Macro + techs both say trend up until proven otherwise
$568 = line in the sand, if it breaks, macro headwinds (yields, inflation) must be the culprit
$583 breakout would be macro + technical alignment = high conviction run to $600+
QQQ (5 September)The slope of the lines matters for pattern bias
Sloping slightly down from $583 to $580
Holding flat around $563–$565
That shape is actually closer to a descending triangle
Bearish continuation if support breaks
But here’s the nuance,
Descending triangles typically form after a downtrend, as continuation
QQQ is in a strong uptrend, so even if the geometry looks bearish, context says bulls still have an edge
In uptrends, these patterns can fail bearishly & instead resolve higher, especially if support keeps holding
So the pattern could be read 2 ways,
Descending triangle with support at $563 breaks = $545–$550
A coiling consolidation under resistance, which still may resolve upward given the broader trend
The key difference will be whether $563 breaks down or holds
Bearish breakdown (descending triangle plays out) at 35% because the macro trend is up since April & bulls usually defend support zones first, but if $563 breaks with volume, bears gain momentum quickly
Bullish breakout (uptrend prevails) at 50% because of the broader uptrend + strong dip buying since April
Each rejection at $580 has been shallow, showing underlying demand
Price keeps oscillating between $563–$580 for another week at 15% in the short run, but if it drags on too long, the eventual breakout becomes stronger
9/4/25 - $qqq - How i'm positioned ep 39/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ
How i'm positioned ep 3
- it's hard not to notice the q's and the spy's are about 50 bps away from a gap fill
- while i'm a strong believer in the efficient market hypothesis (lol - i'm kidding), with googl's timely headline driving risk higher, today's whatever bid getting bid and "rate cuts" as a known known driving "narrative" bid... it all just feels so roll-over-y
- lulu tn just basically confirms... besides having ms sweeney providing green dillys across basement dwelling "portfolios"... the consumer is, has been, and will be cooked like a road kill goose... and rate cuts won't help
- even my NYSE:ONON feels like something i need to manage more lightly.
- it. is. just. hard. to. own. anything.
so i just took down risk a lot.
i'm about 30% cash. tempted to get to 35 or 40%
- still packing a solid 55% obtc, but well hedged w/ ibit puts (as i've described)
- onon leaps at 5% at 3-1 (but honestly it's probably too big)
- smlr to play the mstr headline, but it's honestly just an obtc/ mnav arb exercise w/ shorter term triggers and allows me to keep risk on exposure to btc while managing cash
- nxt still a staple, but it's only 5% of the portfolio at 2-1 leverage (so 10% gross). feels like the only one i have confidence in, but it's performed lol. *don't cut winners, V*
so i draw out some tea leaves green lines not as a prediction but as a thesis for what i think could be a path given liquidity constraints and how rate cuts won't immediately help this.
the memes are bearish divergence all over. correlation 1. these things v likely to trigger leverage liquidations all over on the way down. i think funds might be (and should be) willing to short these too which could amplify the tape.
this all just feels like we're in a seasonal wtf is going on.
hard to own anything, even btc unhedged.
20% ytd and always above 0% still feels "good" but has been too much lift and the juice for the squeeze is like hitting a hawt gurl pilates after hour passion project establishment in LA... $20 bucks for the instagram photo. too many ppl posting PnL gainz is exhausting and a sign.
all i'm saying is... make sure you know what you own. you are taking note of all the strangeness around. acknowledge liquidity conditions are not loose and rate cuts won't immediately help (rates are high! people are cooked! we need rates to BURN to really boost liquidity).
finally. remember - bankers like to pay themselves one more time into YE. don't become their exit liquidity here and also their source of assets toward the dippity do dah.
hand sitting feels smart.
V
QQQ Potential Bearish ResolutionOn the larger timeframe, the overall structure is a bear flag off the bigger down-move, much better than the earlier wedge attempt
If QQQ were forming a wedge, price would be swinging wider with higher highs & lower lows, like a volatility burst after sideways action
This leans bearish (because of the descending highs & flat-ish support), but the final signal will be whichever side breaks with volume
The consolidation isn’t bullish (yet) because it’s drifting against the prior impulse down
It's a bull flag nested inside a bigger bear flag
It's a setup that needs confirmation, so bullish in theory, but the market still has to “vote” with price + volume
If you view the current consolidation as a bull flag, you’re keying off the last impulse up ($559-$572)
If you view it as a bear flag, you’re keying off the last dominant leg down ($583-$559)
That last green bar is encouraging for bulls, but overall the consolidation volume looks like it’s contracting (fits both a flag & a bear retrace)
The decisive clue will be whether volume expands on the breakout/breakdown
Puts
Watch for rejection at $571 with fading volume
Calls
Watch for strong volume push above $572, targeting ~$578
1. Volume
Buyers came in strong on the last green bar, but for a sustained push through $571, should see rising buy volume
2. Structure
If price fails at $571 & volume fades, it could roll over to test $565-$560
If buyers push cleanly above $572 with conviction, then the upper gap $574–$578 comes into play as the next target
If sellers defend $571 again, odds favor a breakdown toward $560
If volume surges & $571 breaks, bulls have a clean magnet up to $578–$582
QQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 090325Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 570/61.80%
Chart time frame:B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress:B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find an entry-level position. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of the slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over the 61.80% level, that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, TradingView provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with the fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill of to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low points of rising stocks.
If you prefer long-term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day
QQQ Potential Bearish ResolutionThe white volume line has been fading during the climb inside the wedge
That’s typical of an exhaustion rally inside an ascending broadening wedge where price pushes higher on weaker participation
The last push up showed a small bounce in volume, but not a breakout-level surge
For a wedge, this usually suggests the rally is running out of gas rather than building strength
Broadening wedges often end with a volume pickup on the breakdown, not on the way up
If we see that white line spike while price loses the wedge bottom, that would be a strong bearish confirmation
Conversely, if volume expands while breaking above $573–$574, it would invalidate the bearish read & confirm strength instead
So, right now volume is consistent with a potential bearish resolution
QQQ 15m: Critical Support - Breakdown Watch!QQQ 15m: Critical Support - Breakdown Watch!
The QQQ 15m chart shows price consolidating above a key support level. If it breaks and sustains below this level, a bearish move is likely. The next target in such a scenario would be the 565 retest area. For any bearish positioning, a stop loss should be placed above the recent swing high.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
return to support provides uptrend continuation entry1->3 : a higher high shows
dominance of number 2 buyers
3->4 : return to dominant buyers
what do I think will happen next?
* rsi and mfi hidden bull and oversold
*obv seems to be continuing uptrend
showing continued buying interest
* buying trade with protection of number 2
buyers is a sensable move that can be
articulated
QQQ : Stay heavy on positionsQQQ : Stay heavy on positions (QLD, TQQQ)
In stay light on positions zones, I hold QQQ and reduce exposure.
In stay heavy on positions zones, I increase allocation using a mix of QLD and TQQQ.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
USFA lights out Macro TOP USFA
if they dont rug it to its fullest with a crazy blackswan
there should be
a serious deadcat at 0,333 attempting to break the BF
around 0,444
If they decide not to break ATH before
christmas palindrom anniversary..
yes the palindrom is exactly on
christmas eve lol
its probably
byebye USA
@Hanslanda369
$QQQ Trading Range for 9.2.25
Ok, so we are heading into tomorrow after the three day weekend a little bearish. Friday every candle printed red and the 35EMA is above us facing down so definitely look to that as resistance.
The 30min 200MA is also facing down and above that we have even more resistance.
I am not in a hurry to go long here until we print a green candle OR hit the bottom of the implied move at 565, which ever comes first
QQQ – Another Channel in Play: Breakout or Breakdown?QQQ has been respecting a series of parallel channels since March of 2023, forming a classic stair-step bullish pattern. Each channel ended with a break below the 10-week SMA.
🔸 Strong Trend Structure
▪ The chart shows five clear ascending parallel channels, each followed by a corrective/downward or sideways phase.
▪ This stair-step structure is characteristic of bullish price action, followed by consolidations, which often signals a healthy uptrend.
🔸 Channel Integrity
▪ Each channel respects its upper and lower bounds well, showing consistent buying pressure and trend continuation.
▪ There are multiple touch points for each upper and lower band, showing price support and resistance levels.
▪ The last channel is slightly narrower than the previous ones, which could imply momentum compression before either:
• A breakout (continuation upward).
• A breakdown (channel failure and pullback).
🔸 Risk Zone
▪ If QQQ breaks below the channel support and the 10-week moving average, the next likely support zone is around $540–$550.
🔸 Key Levels
▪ Upside Target: If QQQ breaks above the channel, we could see $600+ based on the measured move of prior legs.
▪ Watch volume for confirmation on any breakout attempt.
▪ Support Zone: If the channel fails, $540–$550 is the first major demand area aligned with prior consolidation.
🔸 Trade Ideas
▪ Bullish Bias: Breakout with strong volume, stop below channel support.
▪ Bearish Bias: Breakdown on confirmed move below channel and moving average.
Note: This is not investment advice. Do your own research before making any trade decisions. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.
💡 What do you think – continuation or correction? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
$BTC 4-Year Cycle Is NOT Dead According to $QQQ $SPXIt’s really weird cause everyone keeps telling me the ₿itcoin 4-year cycle is dead yet Nasdaq and S&P 500 follow nearly the exact same pattern with cycle lows 🤓
It’s almost as-if monetary and fiscal policy creates this boom and bust cycle every 4-years 🤔
Question for the “this time is different people”….
Will NASDAQ:QQQ and SP:SPX not have similar bear markets as we’ve seen in the past along with CRYPTOCAP:BTC ?
QQQ Breakout, Continuation, or CorrectionSupport levels are far below current price, but they anchor downside risk if a true bear phase begins
Clear $585 with an upside target $600–$625 (aligns with R2)
Hold between $568–$585, market consolidates until macro data (jobs, CPI, Fed)
Weekly close back below R1 ($568) opens a slide to $540 & maybe toward $482 if selling accelerates
QQQ Battlefield Map1. Immediate Support Holds (~55%)
QQQ consolidates above current levels
A push above $583.32 (recent high) would confirm bullish continuation
$589–$590 or retest of envelope top/channel resistance
$600 is a round-number magnet & could trigger breakout momentum
Extension to $607–$610, based on measured move from the last swing
Biggest shelf (high-volume node) is $565–$575
This matches where QQQ has been consolidating with lots of buyers & sellers
2. Break Below $560s (~35%)
Signals loss of short-term momentum
Eyes turn toward $540 (23.6% Fib) - first real downside test
Major support in the area of $529–$540
100d SMA ($529) + Fib ($540) is a critical test
Bounces & dip-buyers defend trend
Failure & trend weakens significantly
Secondary shelf at $520–$530 perfectly lines up with Fib 38.2% ($514) & 100d SMA
Low-volume gap at $545–$555
If QQQ breaks under $565, it can slide fast into this pocket before stabilizing at $540/$530
3. Deeper Downside (~10% - unless macro shock)
$493 (50% Fib) is midpoint retrace, strong demand area (if market turns risk-off, this is the magnet )
$472 (61.8% Fib) is the golden ratio area of support
If this breaks, trend structure flips bearish with risk toward $440–$433
QQQ Potential Inflection PointSymmetrical triangle = compression where buyers keep stepping in higher, but sellers cap at lower levels
Often a continuation pattern, but it can break either way depending on volume + macro drivers
MACD just had a bearish cross earlier, but it’s trying to curl back up which suggests indecision & matches the triangle
RSI is holding mid-zone (~45) - not oversold, not overbought, again, neutral compression
In a proper symmetrical triangle, volume should decline as the pattern compresses
This shows traders waiting, fewer willing to commit inside the chop
That looks normal here (quieter trading into late August)
Volume must expand; otherwise it’s just a fake-out; ideally, RSI also breaks under ~40 & MACD diverges down
If price falls back inside the triangle on weak volume, it’s a false move
If price reclaims the ascending line quickly, it’s a bear trap
If the breakout candle volume is ≥150% of average, that’s confirmation
If price moves but volume stays weak, expect a possible reversal
Watch the first 15–30 min of volume after the break
If it’s a strong surge, odds favor continuation
If volume fades and price chops back inside the triangle, it’s likely a fake-out
Price broke down through the ascending support trendline around ~$572, currently testing $570
Volume expanded on the breakdown candle which adds credibility to the move
If follow-through comes with continued above-average volume, it confirms the downside break
Triangle height is ~24 points (from ~$583 high to ~$559 low), so $570 – $24 = ~$546 (aligns with prior support from mid-August)
If volume continues to stay above 1.3M baseline & Tuesday closes weak, expect sellers to aim for ~$558 first (previous swing low) & then the measured move (~$546)
Direction = which line breaks (up/down)
Strength = whether volume surges beyond normal
Bulls need a fast reclaim of $572–$573 on strong volume; otherwise, bears keep control
QQQ Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 570.30 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 572.83
Recommended Stop Loss - 568.90
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
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