WHEAT was weakest of grains in terms of price gains and CoT. Should be in seasonal weakness.
Price SFP'd D1 range highs and took liquidity from Fri. Several hours later a H1 bearish OB formed.
Price got trapped around D1 resistance and next candle after the OB closed as SS on both SOY and CORN, but giving neutral/bullish candle on WHAT giving better entry.
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If price pushes down, it then pushes back up leaving us with two fairly horizontal...
On a larger scale, it seems ABC correction (2) is over. I counted ABC correction wave in smaller time frames. I think Wheat started its up-trend. TP points are shown on the graph. If requested, smaller time frame targets can be analyzed.
I think in 2021, wheat price will accelerate because of supply shortages due to pandemic. Just an idea.
Happy hunting !
Wheat in October climbed more than 13%.
For the past few days we see the price making a pullback and stopping at the 50MA where buyers jump in again.
There are two scenarios that I see right now:
1) we have a descending triangle in-the-forming with potential break lower if bears win or
2) we are in the “digestion” period of the recently formed higher...
Those that have been following me for a while know that I've had my eye on commodities and as we keep printing currencies, inflation shall follow. I expect some good moves from grains and sugar in months to come and I keep building my positions. We have a descending triangle mixed with a reversed head and shoulder pattern. This combination could lead to explosive...
Wheat has become one of my favourite commodities to trade after the 10:1 win to lose ratio of my positions for SEP '20.
Now I'm puzzled as to what to do next. The trend is clearly bullish but, we are approaching the strong resistance of $5.87-5.92 of MAR '20.
If we break this level then we will see higher prices. Maybe go back to the prices of 2014-2015 where...
Wheat reached the resistance and holded after breaking the trendline mentioned in previous comment (see below).
I'm expecting it to drop at first to the Fib 0.382 lvl marked in the white dotted line.
From there on we will see. If it drops further then we are heading to the support of ~$5.45.
I actually took the selling idea mentioned in the chart as I was...
Wheat is once again at a critical point in my opinion.
The trend on the 4h time frame (TF) is strongly bearish for the past week.
However on the weekly TF is bullish showing higher highs and higher lows.
Right now price following the bearish trend (shown in green) reached the strong support and the 200MA (yellow thick and green thin continues line).
Wheat today broke the support level mentioned as DECISION LEVEL on previous published idea (pls see below for link).
As seen on the 4h time frame above, it also just broke the 38.2% Fib level from the weekly time frame of the last impulse.
The trend remains bearhish (MACD confirms the shift) and the weekly resistance now shifted around the $5.34-5.35 level.
Wheat after our recent profitable prediction (pls refer to previous published idea) is now looking for a direction in my opinion.
It failed yesterday to break the $5.42-5.43 level so now we have a stong 4h bearish candlestick.
Still I'm unsure what the outcome will be. The MACD 4h took a turn and is now approaching the signal line with momentum to go...
This is just an idea I'm considering for Wheat.
Note: The above is not a trading suggestion, just sharing my thoughts with the intent of becoming better on trading commodities mainly.
Wheat achieved a high of 590 in early 2020 and has subsequently moved down in 2 waves , within a channel structure .
There may be another wave to the downside ( suggested by the recent 8/13 MAV cross down). The malalignment of the longer term MAVs (30/50) suggests this will only be a short term corrective move.
A suggested short is
1. Enter - around 5.15