HME — Swing Trade Breakdown🏢 Company Snapshot
Hemisphere Energy Corp is a Canadian oil & gas E&P operator focused on conventional heavy oil, using water-flood / polymer flood recovery in SE Alberta (Atlee Buffalo / Jenner).
Recent catalysts: Q2 2025 results beat consensus, dividend increase, share buyback renewal.
📊 Fundamentals
P/E: 6.8× (Industry 8–12×)
→ Undervalued vs peers, strong earnings multiple compression opportunity.
P/B: N/A (Industry 1.0–2.0×)
→ Book value not a key metric here; asset-light and efficient operations.
Debt/Equity: 0.0 (Industry 0.5–1.5)
→ Practically debt-free — major advantage in a volatile energy market.
ROE: ~40–45 % (Industry 10–20 %)
→ Exceptional profitability and operational efficiency.
Dividend Yield: ~4.6–7.3 % (Industry 2–5 %)
→ High yield with sustainable payout ratio and free-cash-flow support.
Summary: Strong fundamentals for a micro-cap oil name: cheap relative valuation, minimal debt, healthy profitability, and yield support. But earnings volatility and reserve risk weigh.
📈 Trends & Catalysts
Revenue Growth: Last reported TTM revenue ~$82M; growth in 2024 of ~17.7 % YoY.
EPS Trend: Q2 2025 EPS beat (~ $0.07) with upward revisions, though estimates are mixed.
Balance Sheet: Virtually no debt, strong cash generation, free-cash yield ability.
Catalysts:
• Dividend bump / special dividends
• Share buyback programs
• Oil price upside / macro energy tailwinds
• Reserve revaluation or improved recovery efficiency
Risks: Commodity volatility, small-cap liquidity, reserve depletion, regulatory or environmental constraints, over-reliance on a few fields.
🪙 Industry Overview
Weekly / Monthly Movement: Oil & gas E&P small caps are volatile; sector sees frequent up/down swings depending on energy news.
12-month trend: Many Canadian E&P names rallied with energy tailwinds; HME up ~10–15 % vs baseline.
Sentiment: Neutral to Mildly Bullish — yield and fundamentals attract value hunters, but risk premium remains.
📐 Technicals (based on latest trading data)
Price ≈ CAD 2.15
50-SMA ≈ ~ CAD 2.00–2.10 (mid-term average zone)
RSI(2): ~ 55–60 → neutral momentum, no extreme overbought/oversold
Pattern: consolidating near upper band of range, possible breakout attempt
Support: ~ 1.90 – 2.05
Resistance: ~ 2.30 – 2.40
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: 2.10 – 2.20
Stop: 1.95 (below lower support zone)
Target: 2.60 – 2.80 (retest 52-week high / prior resistance)
R/R: ~ 2.5× to ~ 3.5×
Alternate: If fails to hold support, watch for drop to ~ 1.80 zone for a lower-risk reentry.
🧠 My Take
Solid setup for a swing: HME combines yield, low debt, and upside if energy stays strong. The current consolidation looks like coiling for a breakout — entry near current price with a tight stop is reasonable. But don’t overleverage — field risk and oil price swings are real.
