Trade ideas
(b) Wave Retracement Almost CompleteEarlier, I had some concern that this (b) wave might be concluding too quickly relative to the preceding (a) wave.
While time symmetry isnโt a strict requirement in Elliott Wave analysis, there are moments when a patternโs timing simply doesnโt pass the โsmell test.โ
Now, however, weโre seeing price retrace higher in a manner that better aligns with the duration of wave (a). With price currently sitting just below the (b) wave target box, Iโm expecting it to enter that zone imminently to complete this (b) wave retracement.
A subsequent move to a new local low will serve to confirm my analysis.
Where the rally starts - SOL weekly update Oct 28 - 03rdAfter a pretty enduring phase of complex corrective movement, Solana presents itself with impulsive bullish structure today.
As I said in my Ethereum analysis, the macro environment seems to be very bullish with rate cuts and a tariff deal between the United States and China may be incoming. So with that said, I think the upside opportunity in mid- to long-term could be large.
But for short-term, the current market structure looks similar to Ethereum as we are unfolding a rather complex intermediate wave 2. For now therefore, I expect Solana to drop to around $182.10. This scenario is supported by the liquidation heatmap as it shows liquidity built up throughout the latest move up. Indicators like the RSI already showed overbought prices by the end of the move up, which is untypical early for a starting third wave. Not to forget the overall structure being rather slow whilst moving up, which also doesn't fit in the impulsive characteristics of the third wave. So the alternative would be, that this is the third wave, but as I said I think this is very unlikely for me.
Overall Solana provides us a short setup. If you want to take that trade I recommend putting the stop loss at the latest local high or one percent above if you want to be sure and the take profit at the 0.764 retracement level.
Solana - We have to see new all time highs!๐Solana ( CRYPTO:SOLUSD ) has to break out:
๐Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of months, Solana has been rallying another +100%. This rally ultimately resulted in another, third retested of the previous all time high. And if Solana now creates bullish confirmation, we can all expect new all time highs very soon.
๐Levels to watch:
$250
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Solana โ Saucer Pattern & Key Resistance in FocusSolana is starting to stand out with notable relative strength versus both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and it's catching my attention this week.
โ
Key Support Holding:
Price recently held firm at the $185โ$190 support zone, bouncing with strength and attempting to establish a higher low. If this level holds, it would further confirm the uptrend in place since April.
๐ Corrective Phase Since September:
Despite the pullback, the larger trend structure remains bullish. A break above the September high is still needed to confirm trend continuation.
๐ต Multi-Month Saucer Formation:
A rounded base is developing on the daily chartโa classic saucer bottom. If confirmed, this pattern points to major upside potential, with a projected move possibly targeting $500 over time.
โ ๏ธ Watch This Zone Closely:
The $250โ$260 resistance area is the key overhead level to clear. A decisive breakout here could trigger a strong rally and confirm the saucer breakout.
๐ Summary:
Solana is showing resilience, building a bullish structure, and forming a significant base. If momentum builds above $260, bulls may take control in a big way.
Bearish Pressure Builds Below $208FenzoFxโSolana's uptick momentum has been capped by the descending trendline, even though the price flipped above the $185.00 mark.
The daily chart shows long-wick bearish candles, indicating the selling pressure persists below the $208.00 resistance. From a technical perspective, the downtrend will likely resume if the price closes below the inverted fair value gap. In this scenario, SOLANA could decline toward the primary support at $172.00.
Please note that the bearish outlook should be invalidated if the price exceeds the $208.00 mark.
SOLUSD | Approaching Major Resistance LevelSOL/USD is rising towards the sell entry, which is an overlap resistance and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 198.22, which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 206.24, which is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 187.02, which is an overlap support.
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SOLUSDT ForecastSOL is maintaining a strong bullish structure, trading above the ascending trendline after breaking out from the previous descending channel. Price is currently retesting the 198โ200 resistance zone, showing signs of consolidation before a potential continuation move. A successful retest of the trendline and demand zone could trigger an upside push toward the next target around 205.43, confirming bullish momentum continuation.
"Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. Iโd really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
SOL/USD โ Possible Bullish Reversal Loading!Solana looks ready for a potential breakout after consolidating within a key demand zone! ๐
๐ฉ Key Support Zone: $176 โ $185
This green area has acted as a strong accumulation zone multiple times โ buyers continue to defend it aggressively.
๐ต Mid-Level Support: $181.25
Price recently retested this level and is showing signs of bullish strength above it.
๐ฅ Major Resistance Zone: $215 โ $225
This red supply zone is the next key target. If bulls maintain momentum, a breakout here could confirm a full bullish reversal.
๐ Current View (1H timeframe โ Coinbase)
After several rejections and liquidity sweeps below the $180 level, SOL seems to be forming a higher low โ a classic bullish structure.
If the price holds above $190, I expect a push toward the $220 area in the coming days.
๐ง Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):
โ
Long entry: above $190โ$192 confirmation
๐ฏ Targets: $205 โ $220
โ Stop Loss: below $181
๐ฅ Sentiment: Bullish bias โ as long as SOL holds above $181
โก Watch out: High-impact news events could trigger short-term volatility.
SOLANA LONG TERM WOLFE WAVEThe Wolfe Wave is a trading pattern used to predict price reversals and emerging trends. It consists of five waves that form a specific structure, indicating potential breakout or breakdown points.
Waves 1-3-5 these points highlight the main trend, with wave 5 being the potential reversal point.
Waves 2-4 these act as counter-trend corrective waves, setting the boundaries for the pattern.
Projected Line a line drawn from point 1 through point 4 predicts the breakout level after wave 5, known as the "sweet zone"
Trading Strategy traders look for entry around wave 5 with an exit strategy aligned with the projected line, expecting price movement in the direction indicated by the pattern.
SOLUSD: Key 175 Support in Focus After 198.5 Rejection
SOLUSD is currently consolidating in a range, facing a pullback after being rejected by the 198.5 current resistance level.
For the bulls to regain control, the price needs to break and hold above the 198.5 resistance, which would set the stage for a move towards the 200 to 205 key resistance zone.
The current bearish pressure suggests that a retest of the 175 current support level is likely in the short term.
A breakdown and close below the 175 support would be a significant bearish development, potentially sending the price down to the 160 to 165 key support zone.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
โ
SOL Long OptionSol is the same scenario as BTC...
For some reason the rest of the alts coins look stronger than BTC and SOL.
I do not see alts like XRP sweeping their lows. They look much stronger.
I do see weakness in SOL which I see people losing interest in because of pump.fun.
Just like NFTs, it was good while it lasted.
Solana price path for the next days๐จ NOT a financial advice, do you own analysis TOO.
SOL lost some of its important supports but hope is still there. dont panic because of the recent market selloff.
despite the terrifying current situation i am hopeful for solana price. the RSI indicator has reached the oversold zone meaning the strength of sellers is weakening. however there is still room for further decline.
as illustrated in the chart i expect the price to fell to 130 if BTC Dominance increase as well. hence, we can make sure that sellers are out.
The most important uptrend line for SOLUSDAll crypto assets are way oversold these days (but everyone knows that already). This is totally understandable due to the longer government shutdown and other uncertainties (usual 4 year cycle which is normally already ended now).
It would not surprise me if we go further down than 150$ right now. Only because of the fact that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD even went below 100.000$ today!
In the most worst scenario, it really needs to bounce from the white uptrend line if we still want to see a better Q4 this year or Q1 2026.
According to the fib. retracement level this normally should be a good buy opportunity. If it holds above the white trend line, then we are still inside the ascending triangle (which is a bullish pattern).
Solana Price Movement + Liquidation + Whale Map + Trade PlanTrade Plan:
Buy dips into $185 โ $181 โ $178 with a protective tail at $168, target $194 โ $203 โ $212+, and invalidate if $168 HTF breaks.
Price Movement + Liquidation + Whale Map
Solana has successfully rebounded from the key demand pocket at $178โ$181, where aggressive buyers defended the prior 4H swing low and swept liquidity below the rising trendline. This bounce confirms continued smart-money defense of structure, following a multi-day corrective pullback after distributing into the $203โ$208 supply band. Price is now stabilizing above the micro accumulation shelf at $183โ$186, with intraday candles showing higher-lows and early bullish momentum returning, supported by volume absorption on each dip into the mid-$180s. As long as SOL holds the $181 reclaim, this remains a continuation accumulation phase, not a trend breakdown.
The next short-term move favors a grind-up retracement toward trapped shorts around $191โ$194, followed by a sweep of the liquidity band at $197โ$200 โ the first key liquidation magnet above. A clean break and hold above $200 opens the door to speed-move expansion into $207โ$212, where heavy resting sell walls and prior profit-taking nodes reside. Above this, breakout momentum could accelerate into $223โ$231 on momentum ignition, but that remains a secondary stage target and depends on reclaim strength above the $210 shelf.
On the downside, major liquidation pools remain stacked beneath $182, then $178, and a deeper wash at $172โ$168 (high-value tail liquidity + psychological flush zone). If price wicks into those levels, it would likely be a liquidity hunt rather than structural failure, provided bulls recapture the zone quickly. Whales have been accumulating consistently in the $168โ$181 band for weeks, with on-chain order-flow showing absorption during each correction phase, confirming institutional accumulation rather than distribution. Sell walls reappear in layers above $203, $208, and $215, suggesting short-term volatility expected upon breakout but not necessarily cycle-top behavior โ more likely controlled profit-taking.
Execution Plan: Bias remains buying retracements, not chasing. Primary dip accumulation zone remains $183โ$185, ideal add layer at $181โ$178 on wick flush, and tail-hedge allocation stands at $172โ$168. Risk defined below $168. First take-profit ladder rests at $194 โ $200 โ $212, with secondary hold targets into $223+ if strength persists. Maintain core long ride if momentum and on-chain flows stay supportive.
Invalidation: The setup remains fully valid as long as SOL does not close a 4H candle below $178 and does not lose $168 on HTF closing basis. A persistent breakdown below $168 would shift structure into a larger ABC corrective phase, delaying continuation rather than ending the macro bull drive. Until then, liquidity behavior, trend structure, whale positioning, and momentum context remain biased to the upside with accumulation-driven volatility.
SOL: Unlocking 35% Upside in High-Performance BlockchainSOL: Unlocking 35% Upside in High-Performance Blockchain Amid ETF Momentum โ SWOT and Intrinsic Value Insights
๐ Introduction
As of October 28, 2025, Solana (SOL) is navigating a post-ETF launch environment with oversold rebound characteristics. The cryptocurrency trades around $200, reflecting a mild correction after recent highs near $231, influenced by broader market liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve's $2T stimulus and cooling inflation data. Sector dynamics show Solana's DeFi ecosystem surging, with total value locked (TVL) expanding due to high transaction throughput and low fees, outpacing competitors like BNB Chain in 24-hour DEX volume ($1.47B vs. $1.3B). Macro factors, including institutional inflows into crypto ETFs and reduced China tariff risks, support a stabilizing trend, though volatility persists from regulatory scrutiny and altcoin rotations.
๐ SWOT Analysis
**Strengths ๐ช**: Solana boasts exceptional network performance with up to 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) and sub-$0.01 fees, enabling scalable DeFi and NFT applications. Recent metrics highlight robust growth: DeFi TVL has reached approximately $16B (per aggregated chain data), with platforms like Saros Finance alone at $250M and 150K+ active wallets. Institutional adoption is evident through the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) launch, offering ~7% annual yield, and partnerships like Visa's USDC support. Revenue from transaction fees and staking (current APY ~6-8%) bolsters sustainability, with over 3.5M SOL held by corporate treasuries valued at $591M+.
**Weaknesses โ ๏ธ**: Historical network outages, though reduced since 2024 upgrades, remain a concern, with the last major halt in February 2024. Centralization risks arise from a validator concentration (top 19 control ~33% of stake), potentially exposing the network to downtime or governance issues. Debt-like metrics are minimal in crypto, but high inflation from token unlocks (total supply 612.84M vs. circulating 549.7M) could dilute value if adoption lags.
**Opportunities ๐**: The Alpenglow upgrade, slated for late 2025, promises 150ms block finalization, enhancing real-time applications in payments and derivatives. ETF momentum, including Canary's HBAR/LTC launches as proxies, could drive SOL inflows similar to Bitcoin's $1.5B ETF projections. Expanding meme coin and gaming ecosystems, backed by $150M from Solana Ventures, position it for market share gains in Web3, with potential for $300+ highs if resistance at $260 breaks.
**Threats ๐ฉ**: Regulatory pressures, such as SEC delays on further ETFs or China's stablecoin warnings, could cap growth. Competition from Ethereum L2s (e.g., Arbitrum's 2.5M daily transactions) and bridges poses risks, alongside market-wide volatility from Bitcoin dominance (57.6%). Broader threats include quantum computing vulnerabilities, though mitigated by ongoing cryptographic enhancements.
๐ฐ Intrinsic Value Calculation
Adopting a value investing lens for cryptocurrencies, we estimate Solana's intrinsic value using an adapted discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on network fundamentals, incorporating a margin of safety (20% discount). Key inputs from public data: TVL ~$16B, circulating supply 549.7M SOL, staking yield ~7%, and projected annual growth rate 50% (based on DeFi volume surges and ETF catalysts).
Formula: Intrinsic Value per Token = (TVL per Token * Weight) + (Annualized Yield * Growth Multiplier)
- TVL per Token = $16B / 549.7M โ $29.10 (weighted at 0.7 for core network value)
- Annualized Yield = 7% (weighted at 0.3, multiplied by 10x growth factor for ecosystem expansion)
Calculation:
(29.10 * 0.7) + (0.07 * 10) = 20.37 + 0.70 = 21.07
Scaled to market comparables (e.g., ETH's P/TVL ratio ~9.3 vs. SOL's current 6.8): Adjusted Intrinsic = 21.07 * 13 (blended multiplier for TPS advantage and adoption) โ $273.91
Apply 20% margin of safety: $273.91 * 0.8 โ $219.13
At current price ~$200, SOL appears undervalued by ~9-35% (factoring upside to $271 fair value per P/TVL alignment). No major debt flags, but sustainability hinges on TVL growth exceeding token inflation. ๐ Undervalued.
๐ Entry Strategy Insights
Institutional approaches favor identifying support zones around $180-190 (near 200-day SMA) for unleveraged, long-term entries via dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Scale in during 8-12% dips, using non-repainting momentum indicators like volume-weighted averages to confirm rebounds. Optimal for accumulating 10-20% positions over 3-6 months, targeting breakouts above $210 for scaling out partial profits. ๐ Spot zones.
โ ๏ธ Risk Management
Limit position sizing to 1-5% of portfolio to mitigate volatility, diversifying across Layer-1s and stable assets. Set trailing stops at 10-15% below entry (e.g., $170) and hold long-term if fundamentals remain strong, monitoring validator health and TVL metrics. Caution on overexposure amid potential 15-30% pullbacks from macro events.
๐ Conclusion
Solana's high-speed infrastructure, ETF-driven momentum, and undervalued metrics position it for sustained growth, with calculated upside to $219+ incorporating safety margins. Key takeaways: Focus on network adoption for value accrual, verify TVL trends independently.
This is educational content only; not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.
SOL at resistance, has work to doCRYPTOCAP:SOL is at major resistance High Volume Node just below the daily pivot.
The local trend has flipped bullish but a strong move may not be on the cards until we climb the wall of worry through resistance. Price is riding the daily 200EMA.
Daily RSI did not print bullish divergence or reach oversold.
Safe trading
$SOL Bullish Engulfing Weekly CloseSolana is looking good here ๐๐ฝ
Reclaimed the 50WMA and closed above the 50% Gann Level.
Note the Bullish Engulfing candle for the Weekly Close.
However CRYPTOCAP:SOL Still trading within the DANGER ZONE โ ๏ธ
Need these next couple weeks to close outside of this POI.
You can see the Liberation Day lower trendline still remains intact for support and we had the Bullish Cross a few weeks ago on the 20 / 50 WMA ๐ค
$SOL โ Dual Bull Flags & Parallel Channel StructureSince the April lows across both equities and crypto markets, CRYPTOCAP:SOL has been one of the standout performers, printing a powerful bullish trend structure defined by two major bull flags โ each followed by significant measured-move extensions.
Phase 1 โ The First Bull Flag
The first rally delivered a 97% gain, followed by a 30% retracement, forming a textbook flag structure.
After a clean breakout and retest of the upper trendline in late June, Solana launched into a 60% measured move, aligning closely with a โ1:1 projection of the initial flagpole.
This breakout confirmed strong underlying momentum, accompanied by increasing volume and trend confirmation across the broader crypto space.
Phase 2 โ The Second Flag Formation
The breakout from the first flag initiated a second 100% run, moving from $126-$253, before undergoing another 30% retracement down to $172.
This pullback mirrors the previous structure almost perfectly, consolidating within another bull flag as the market digests gains.
Currently, price is holding above $190, sitting just beneath the upper flag boundary. The consolidation remains healthy, and if momentum continues to build within this pattern, a volume-backed breakout could lead to a retest of the upper trendline and continuation toward higher levels.
Trend Channel & Structure
The broader move from early June forms a dual-trendline bull channel, where both sets of parallel trendlines are aligned near a 45ยฐ slope. This structure reinforces the bullish bias, showing consistent rhythm between impulses and corrections โ a strong sign of a well-organized uptrend rather than random volatility.
The pattern also shows proportional price swings, with both measured moves (~1:1) maintaining the same amplitude, suggesting institutional order flow and algorithmic consistency.
Key Levels to Watch
Level Significance
$253.61 Flag target & prior swing high
$213โ$214 Local resistance cluster
$190.82 Current support zone (holding above)
$172.78 30% retrace support
$155.75 / $126.03 Structural supports / prior flag bases
A confirmed close above $213โ$214 on rising volume would be the first signal that the breakout is underway. Failure to hold $190 would risk extending the flag lower toward the $172 zone.
Measured Move & Projection
If the breakout mirrors the first flagโs performance, a measured move equal to the previous flagpole projects a potential target near $323 โ aligning with the upper bound of the extended bull channel.
That projection maintains symmetry with previous rally amplitudes (97%, 60%, ~100%), further validating the trend continuation scenario.
Technical Summary
โ
Trend: Bullish (higher highs & higher lows)
โ
Pattern: Dual bull flags within rising parallel channel
๐ Momentum: Strong; price holding above 8/13 EMA cluster
โ๏ธ Support: $190 โ $172 โ $155
๐ฏ Target: $323 (1:1 projection from current flagpole)
๐ Trigger: Breakout above top trendline on increased volume
Final Notes
CRYPTOCAP:SOL remains technically one of the strongest large-cap crypto charts โ clean structure, repeatable patterns, and consistent retracement depth between impulsive legs.
While short-term volatility is expected inside the flag, the 45ยฐ upward channel and consistent measured-move behavior keep the medium-term bias bullish through Q4.
As always, volume confirmation will be key, a breakout supported by expanding participation could mark the start of the next leg toward $323.
For educational and technical analysis purposes only.






















