SPX to Money Supply WARNING!If the charts aren’t showing bubble setups, I’m not going to invent them. I post what the data shows. So please don’t shoot the messenger when I say GTFO & STFO.
And just to keep the facts straight:
Brokerage, stock, and crypto accounts are not part of M2.
Why does M2 matter?
It’s the actual spendable money in the economy.
When M2 grows faster than real output (as it did in 2021), price pressure builds.
The economy runs on liquidity.
Retail, goods, services all of it requires money you can actually spend, not paper gains in a trading account.
When the S&P 500 disconnects massively from M2 — like during the dot-com bubble — revenue and profit growth can’t keep pace. Valuations expand purely on speculation, not on real, organic fundamentals. That’s how multiples stretch and bubbles form.
The problem? Most retail traders have no idea this is happening. They’re trading with their hair on fire, following cute social-media stories dressed up as “analysis,” using strategies that have never been tested in real markets.
And that’s exactly how bubbles are fed:
big players sell into retail euphoria, and retail ends up holding the bag of schitt!
Buy when stocks are cheap, not at all-time highs in euphoria land.
"Price is what you payt, VALUE is what you get!"
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👉 Drop a solid comment
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Trade ideas
S&P 500 4H: Trendline SHATTERED! Bullish Revival or Bear Trap? Following the formation of a Higher High (HH) ↗️, the market entered a correction and later established a Higher Low (HL) ↗️, confirming the continuation of the bullish structure on the 4-hour timeframe.
Subsequently, price entered a consolidation phase below a descending trendline, and early signs of a breakout (Trendline Break) 📈 are now visible.
Currently, price is in the After Break phase following the trendline breakout. However, a structured and confirmed pullback to establish a definitive HL has not yet been observed — marked on the chart as HL?.
🔑 Key Chart Areas
Resistance Zone (Ceiling Range) 🧱
The upper chart range where a Fake Breakout could occur.
Entry into this zone without strong breakout momentum may be a market trap (fakeout), potentially pushing price back into the range.
Marked as a No Trade Zone 🚫 — avoid entering trades until price decisively breaks this area with strong volume & a solid closing candle.
Major Support Zone 🛡
Key support is identified around 6768.
A confirmed break below this zone, followed by a pullback to it, would activate a bearish scenario, shifting the market into an After Break (bearish) phase.
In this case, a decline toward the previous low (marked at the bottom of the chart) is likely.
📈 Bullish Scenario
For the uptrend to continue:
Price must exit the resistance zone with a strong breakout candle closing above it.
The broken resistance should then hold as support (Flip).
Following this, an advance toward higher targets is expected, reactivating the medium-term bullish structure.
📉 Bearish Scenario
If support at 6768 breaks:
The market will enter a new bearish structure.
A pullback toward the broken support is likely, followed by a resumption of the decline.
The next target would be the major low zone at the bottom of the chart.
What’s your take on the next move? 📝 Share your thoughts below! 👇
Disclaimer ⚠️: Financial markets are highly volatile. Always educate yourself, learn, and study the market before entering any buy or sell positions.
SPX Overbought In Real Terms WARNING!SPX Overbought In Real Terms (Inflation-adjusted) Stripping away inflation shows you the "real" value of SPX.
This is not something you will likely see again in your lifetime. We have only been this overbought twice before since 1947! Both times, what followed was a bear market. You are far more likely to see the price hit the bottom of the channel in your lifetime.
As is always the case, no one will want to touch stocks then. Rest assured, I, for one, will be buying up a storm then.
You have all been WARNED!
GTFO and STFO!
Risk Management is paramount!
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Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Boost
👉 Follow
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
SP500 Consolidation bullish momentumSP500 showing price action between late September and early December the SP is trading around 6,855 after a strong upward move recent candles show bullish momentum pushing above a previously broken trendline.
The S&P 500 rose on Friday, pushing it close to its record high. A strong November rally, fuelled by investor optimism over potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, has continued to lift stocks.
Technically, if the price maintains its bullish zone within the current range, we could expect further upward movement. The next major resistance zone is projected at 6902–6952.
You may find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of luck buddies.
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SP500 Bullish Divergence Detected (SPY)Bullish divergence of the SP500 and NYSE Advance Decline Line (ADL) is one of the most powerful and reliable "leading" indicators available. Here we see the ADL make a new high (a higher high) while the SP500 does not make a new high. This divergence indicates that market breadth is markly improving, which will ultimately drive the SP500 up to new all time highs in the coming weeks or months.
I am well aware of discussions about bubble fears and valuation concerns. It's important to note that the market can continue to increase for some time even with these concerns, so it would be a mistake to get out of or short the market at this time. Also, the technicals are pointing higher, not lower.
As long as this train keeps chugging, we should stay on this ride! Go long on SPY, VOO, QQQ!!!
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to MAX of wave "3" of 6928.Colleagues, we continue the previous scenario of upward movement in the impulse “12345”.
I expect a small correction in the middle order wave “2” approximately to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (6675).
Then I expect a continuation of the upward movement to the maximum of the wave "3" of the higher order 6928.4.
It is possible that the first wave may be stretched, which may mean a correction-free movement to the target.
Fundamental Context.
Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish ahead of this week’s US data releases. Investors continue to price in a softer Fed policy path for 2026, which supports the equity market after the recent correction.
US Treasury yields remain under pressure, and the latest macro indicators — especially labor market cooling and weaker business activity components — reinforce expectations of an economic slowdown. This backdrop typically favors equity upside as markets look ahead to potential policy easing.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPX500: Bullish Push to 6927?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, FX:SPX500 is eyeing a bullish breakout on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from a key support zone near recent lows , converging with potential entry area that could ignite upside momentum if buyers defend against dips. This setup suggests a continuation opportunity amid the ongoing uptrend, targeting higher resistance levels with favorable risk-reward.🔥
Entry between 6700–6720 for a long position. Targets at 6880 (first), 6927 (second). Set a stop loss at a close below 6643 to limit exposure, yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:2 to first target and up to 1:2.5 overall. Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the index's resilience near ATH.🌟
Fundamentally , the S&P 500 is pushing toward new highs in November 2025, driven by bets on Fed rate cuts and strong global demand, though underlying issues like market concentration (top 10 companies over 40% of the index) and recent weekly dips (~2%) highlight volatility. Positive factors include liquidity, consumer strength, and earnings growth, with forecasts eyeing upside to 7000 amid election stability and AI investments. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Long):
6700 – 6720
🎯 Targets:
• TP1: 6880
• TP2: 6927
❌ Stop Loss:
• Any 4H candle close below 6643
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• ~1:2 to the first target
• Up to 1:2.5 if full target is hit
👇 Share your thoughts below! 👇
S&P500 Idea FOMCBias until Dec FOMC:
We will be looking to continue to ride the Fed rate cuts odds increased on the markets as that is still holding most weight at the moment and will most likely continue to do so until the FOMC decision on 11 December.
The markets have been primarily pricing in the rate cut expectations 30 days well before the actual FOMC decision, there during the actual Rate decision release, we barely get any impact and we get markets repositioning for any future guidance to come. Basically a case of ‘Buy the rumour and Sell the news’’ play.
- Because at the moment, we have been seeing rate cut probabilities increasing to 85% which has been holding most weight for Gold upside and giving the greedy intuitions a reason to further buy up risk assets.
However,
- This doesn't mean that Dec is a guaranteed rate cut, and during the December FOMC, the fed may either cut rates by 25bps or Hold rates, and if there future guidance remarks are hawkish since inflation is still elevated - then we can see Profit taking on risk assets. Therefor expect to see Gold bears, DXY bulls, BTC Bears, Stock bears.
So until the actual December FOMC, If December Rate cut probabilities are still elevated (80%+), then, we can still expect Buyers in control on Risk assets, so:
- DXY - Downside.
- GOLD - Upside , potentially retest upto previous ATH’s $4380’s. Then Profit taking post FOMC.
- US Stocks - Upside on SPX to make New ATH’s and bearish wave if Dec FOMC hawkish.
- BTC - Upside to 100k, prev supply zone before Correction bearish phase.
S&P 500 key levels to watchUS indices have managed to bounce nicely off their overnight lows, despite concerns about the yen-funded carry trade unwind and crypto selling. The S&P has now entered a key inflection point again, near 6840-52 area; let's see whether the bulls will be able to reclaim this zone and kick on from there, or whether the selling resumes. Shaded blue area is the key support zone to watch between 6771-6795; bearish if we go below there.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX — a new ATH is coming very soon.The market has just formed a clean initial impulse and broke out of the descending Andrews pitchfork , which tells us one thing: the correction is about done. (I previously expected a triangle as a possible correction, but the structure is now clear.)
From here, the next step is simple — a new all-time high.
Targets: I’m focused on the 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extensions of the correction.
Trading plan: I’m waiting for a local 3-wave pullback — and only then I’ll enter on the breakout. Entering “just because it dipped” — ❌ never an option.
A Storm Is Coming?Core Thesis: The market is colossally underestimating the risk of a deliberate US dollar devaluation. Contrary to popular belief, a weaker dollar in this specific context will not boost risk assets but will instead be the source of massive volatility, potentially exceeding 2008. The collapse will come from the unwinding of a global dollar-centric carry trade.
The Pillars of the Storm:
The Structural Imbalance (The Fuel):
The US, as the world's largest importer, sends dollars abroad. To maintain their export-oriented economies, foreigners reinvest these dollars into US assets (especially the top 7 S&P 500 stocks).
This has created a structural "carry trade": global investors are overexposed to US assets and, trusting that the dollar rallies in crises (like 2008), do not hedge their currency risk.
This continuous flow is a primary reason for extreme US equity market valuations. Global liquidity, not just fundamentals, has inflated prices.
The Trump Agenda (The Trigger):
The Trump administration is actively pursuing a weaker dollar to gain an upper hand in the economic conflict with China, using tariffs as leverage.
Since Trump took office, we have already seen episodes where the dollar and stocks sell off simultaneously – a warning sign that the traditional correlation is breaking.
The Federal Reserve (The Accelerator):
Trump needs a dovish Fed to weaken the dollar. The appointment of Steven Miran to the Fed, with his interest rate projections 100bps below other members, is a clear signal of this direction.
A new Fed Chair, more aligned with Trump, will likely take over in 2026 to implement a more aggressively accommodative monetary policy.
The Crisis Mechanism:
The trap is set in the following scenario:
The Fed cuts rates aggressively to weaken the dollar, following Trump's agenda.
The dollar devalues significantly.
For a foreign investor, the return is: (S&P 500 Return) + (FX Change). With the dollar falling, their gains are eroded or turn into losses.
This triggers a mass exodus of these foreign investors, who start selling US assets to protect their returns.
The selling is amplified by the structural fragility: everyone is positioned the same way. Liquidity evaporates.
Panic sets in when the typical "Fed put" (intervention to save the market) fails, because more liquidity injected by the Fed would depress the dollar even further, amplifying the equity selloff instead of containing it.
Warning Signals to Monitor:
Primary Signal: Equity selling occurring simultaneously with a depreciating dollar.
Confirmation Signal: A rise in implied volatility (skew) in the currency market.
Market Signal: Underperformance of high-beta and low-quality stocks, indicating that risk capital flows are drying up.
Critical Signal: Any Fed intervention that, instead of calming the market, causes an even larger selloff in the dollar and stocks.
Current Positioning & Conclusion:
In the short term, the author maintains long positions in equities, gold, and silver, as liquidity tailwinds are still favorable. However, the storm is forming. The market is as complacent about a weak dollar as it was about mortgages in 2007. When the signals above flash, indicating that cross-border flow risk is materializing, it will be time to position defensively: short equities, long volatility, and short the US dollar.
The crisis is not a matter of "if," but "when" these structural flows begin to reverse. Awareness of this mechanism is the single greatest edge an investor can have today.
S&P 500 Index: Early December Chart AnalysisS&P 500 Index: Early December Chart Analysis
December is traditionally a favourable month for the S&P 500 :
→ Since the 1950s, December has ended higher in over 70% of years.
→ Average monthly gain is around +1.0%.
Will the index rise in 2025? Much depends on the Federal Reserve meeting on 10 December, as well as other factors, including geopolitical developments. Interest is also piqued by an upcoming statement from Trump at the White House (today, 22:00 GMT+3), though the topic remains undisclosed.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Demand-side perspective:
→ The rebound from November’s low was aggressive, rising roughly +5% in 10 days.
→ Price climbed above the blue trendline that has acted as support since summer.
→ The recent dip (marked by the red trajectory) could be a temporary correction, forming a Bull Flag pattern.
Supply-side perspective:
→ The red trajectory has not yet been breached.
→ Recent price movements show a strong bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, along with signs of a Quasimodo formation, emerging around the attempt to break the upper boundary.
In the short term, the former resistance at 6785 may now act as support. Overall, the S&P 500 is likely to adopt a wait-and-see stance, adjusting as economic news, delayed by the government shutdown, is released.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P500 Next stop.. 6925The S&P500 index (SPX) is about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that took it from the bottom of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) contact to having recovered the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the whole correction.
The next technical Target is of course the 6925 All Time High (ATH). Since however we are about to form a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross, a technical pull-back is expected as both previous such crosses since August 13, resulted into a short-term Top.
If the IH&S completes its technical expansion, then after this correction, a test of the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 7200 is possible.
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Bulls Hang Tough - US Data and Holiday Trading Make or BreakThanksgiving week delivered a nice rally to help November finish higher than October
It's now December and we have a myriad of US News hitting the headlines before Christmas and New Year's bring us into 2026
ADP Non-Farm
US PMI
US Core PCE
Non-Farm
CPI / PPI
FOMC (December Rate Cut Likely)
Price action is truly key. November ended with a nice stable rally with broad market pumps encouraging an equal weight comeback trade for now (nearly 60% of S&P stocks > 50 period moving average, and 60% of S&P stocks > 200 period moving average)
If the markets avoid a major slip or disruption to end the year, animal spirits may remain optimistic enough to keep the party going in 2026 and continue to climb the wall of worry as sentiment remains pessimistic
US Market Key Levels
1) Oct 10 and Nov 20 candle lows
2) 200 period moving average
3) February 2025 all-time highs area
Sector rotation is pretty clear. Broader market rotation is pretty clear, but overall the markets need to continue to show stable and steady earnings growth and trends and keep the AI narrative glowing with a positive outlook
S&P 500 index Bull Run Continues — Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutThe S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) has shown solid bullish momentum over the last 7 trading days, gaining more than +5% during this period.
The S&P 500 has once again moved back above Important Support lines, and it now appears to be breaking through a resistance line as well.
From a classical technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 seems to be moving inside a symmetrical triangle pattern.
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the S&P 500 looks to be completing Wave 4. A confirmed breakout above the upper line of the symmetrical triangle could validate the end of Wave 4.
I expect the S&P 500 to continue its upward movement and extend toward the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and the Resistance zone ($6,902_$6,875).
What’s your view on the S&P 500 index and the broader U.S. stock market?
First Target: $6,859
Second Target: $6,887
Stop Los(SL): $6,774(Worst)
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
SPX: Investors bet on December's cutDuring Thanksgiving week, markets were in a positive, holiday mood, bringing US equities to higher grounds. The S&P 500 had a five-day positive streak, moving from 6.530 up to 6.850 points on Friday. The mood among investors has shifted again back toward a more risk-on stance, as the market is now about 80% confident that the Fed will cut interest rates at December FOMC meeting. Many stocks included in the index are now trading at new all time highest levels, some of which are General Motors, Hilton Worldwide, Walmart stores.
Tech companies also gained during the previous week, as confidence in AI was restored supported by some promising macro developments. Meta was one of the biggest winners, surging around 9% for the week. Microsoft was traded higher by more than 4%, however, Nvidia continues to lag in gains. Company shares continued to decline, losing around 2% on a weekly basis and highlighting uneven sentiment among the tech sector.
The week ahead brings PCE data for September. This indicator is the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, in which sense, Friday might bring some higher volatility. Nervousness will be increased, considering that these data will be taken into account by FOMC members when voting for a rate cut. On the opposite side, starting with the week ahead, we are entering into the last trading month of the year, when investors are seeking positive sentiment to book yearly profits.
SP500: Ready to Break Out and Forge New All-Time Highs S&P 500 indicates that the recent complex downward correction is complete, having bottomed at 6501.7.
The market is currently rallying and is testing the major upper trendline resistance. The analysis projects a minor, temporary pullback to gather momentum, potentially to the 6775.0 area. Following this consolidation, a decisive breakout above the trendline is anticipated. This will confirm the launch of a major new upward wave, expected to drive the S&P 500 to new all-time highs above 6928.
Stay Tuned :)
@Money_Dictators
SPX500: Break Above 6815 Could Accelerate GainsOANDA:SPX500USD |Overview
U.S. futures pointed lower on Monday as investors turned cautious following a soft, holiday-thinned trading week.
Despite Wall Street posting its strongest weekly performance since June, the Nasdaq ended November with its first monthly decline since March, as concerns grew over overstretched AI and tech valuations.
Markets are now awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Powell, along with early holiday-spending data, private payrolls, and this week’s key PCE inflation report, which may guide expectations ahead of next week’s policy meeting.
Technical Outlook
SPX500 maintains a bullish momentum while trading above 6771, although a correction from 6815 back toward 6771 is possible before attempting another upward move.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as price holds above 6771, the bullish trend remains intact.
A 4H close above 6815 will confirm continuation toward 6844 and 6888, with potential extension to 6918.
Bearish Scenario:
A 1H close below 6771 will signal the start of a bearish move toward 6713, and possibly 6670.
Pivot Line: 6815
Support: 6771 · 6713 · 6670
Resistance: 6844 · 6888 · 6918
SPX Approaches Critical Zone - Breakdown or Breakout?S&P 500 – 4H Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading just below a major resistance zone around 6,900–6,920, where previous rallies have repeatedly stalled. The recent rejection suggests weakening bullish momentum. The index also broke below its prior upward trendline, turning short-term structure neutral to slightly bearish.
If price fails to break above resistance, a pullback toward the first target zone at 6,630–6,650 is likely. A deeper decline could extend toward the final target zone near 6,210–6,260, especially if selling pressure increases and the 50-EMA at 6,745 is convincingly lost.
Overall bias: Bearish short-term unless price reclaims and holds above 6,920.
SPX - H4 - SELL SETUP - Supply Retest confirmedSPX has entered bear market territory last month and I expect a continuation to the downtrend from here onward. Based on many different macro indicators such as credit default swaps on big tech, macro regimes, sentiment and technical analysis. I see SPX falling off the clip from this precise supply zone
SPX500 – OUTLOOK | Price Action SetupSPX500 – Technical Outlook
Ares Management is drawing attention ahead of the S&P 500’s upcoming rebalancing announcement. Index additions often generate buying pressure as passive funds adjust their holdings, and the broader market sentiment today will be influenced by the ADP employment data.
Technical Analysis
SPX500 continues to show bullish strength while trading above 6844.
As long as price holds above this pivot level, the index is expected to push toward 6888, and a breakout above this zone could extend the move toward 6918.
However, a 1H close below 6844 would signal a bearish correction, targeting 6814 initially, followed by 6771 if downside momentum increases.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: 6844
Support: 6815 · 6771
Resistance: 6888 · 6918






















