SPTRD trade ideas
US500: Bulls Pause as Pullback Risks GrowUS500 has been riding an impressive uptrend, with buyers pushing the index to fresh highs above 6,440, but the recent stalling near resistance suggests that momentum may be losing steam. With growth concerns, central bank caution, and a round of key economic data on deck, the risk of a corrective pullback is building. This setup highlights the importance of watching whether support levels hold or if sellers gain the upper hand.
Current Bias
Bearish (Short Term) – While the broader trend remains bullish, near-term technicals and macro uncertainty point toward a corrective pullback.
Key Fundamental Drivers
US Earnings Season: Mixed corporate earnings, with strength in tech offset by weakness in cyclicals.
Fed Policy: Markets are still weighing timing of potential rate cuts, but sticky inflation data and cautious Fed commentary keep rates elevated.
Bond Yields: US yields remain relatively high, pressuring equities when safe-haven flows emerge.
Macro Context
Interest Rates: The Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, balancing sticky services inflation against slowing growth. Rate cuts are still priced for later this year, but not aggressively.
Economic Growth: US economy shows signs of slowing, with softer retail sales and housing data, though labor markets remain resilient.
Commodities/Flows: Energy costs are stabilizing, but higher oil prices in recent weeks could add inflationary pressure.
Geopolitics: Trade tensions, tariffs, and Middle East instability add layers of risk, supporting defensive positioning.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A surprise dovish shift from the Fed or stronger-than-expected US earnings could quickly reignite bullish momentum and push US500 higher, invalidating the pullback scenario.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
FOMC Minutes & Powell Speeches – Markets will look for clarity on rate cut timing.
US CPI & PPI Data – Any upside surprises could weigh heavily on equities.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
The US500 is a leader, often dictating global equity sentiment. Movements in US500 ripple into NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE, and risk-sensitive FX pairs such as AUD/JPY. Its role as a global risk benchmark makes it highly influential.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 6,370, 6,231, 5,920
Resistance Levels: 6,447 (recent high), 6,500 psychological barrier
Stop Loss (SL): 6,480 (above recent highs)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 6,370
TP2: 6,231
TP3: 5,920
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
US500 bias is shifting to neutral-to-bearish, with the index showing signs of fatigue at highs around 6,440–6,450. A pullback toward 6,370 → 6,231 is possible, with 5,920 as an extended target if risk sentiment deteriorates. A protective stop at 6,480 is key in case bulls regain momentum. Traders should keep a close eye on Fed communication and US inflation data, as these remain the most powerful catalysts for near-term direction. With the US500 acting as a leader for global equities, its moves will likely shape broader market sentiment across stocks, indices, and even risk-sensitive currencies.
Portfolio Update Aug 20 2025I sold all ORCL stocks yesterday as I see the market topped. Big tech companies are retracing now, so this might be the peak for now.
We have Jackson Hole symposium in the upcoming days which may lead to policy changes. We also waiting to see tariff effect in the 3rd quarter earnings. Plus Ukraine war updates.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
S&P500 H4 | Bearish dropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry at 6,428.75, which is a pullback resstance and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Stop loss is at 6,488.82, whichis a swing high reistance.
Take profit is at 6,350.26, whichis an overlap support that lines up witht he 50% Fibonacci retracment.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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S&P500: Losing Momentum !I see the rally comes to end, the recent upside move has no momentum. The stocks need a new catalysts to continue, but I do not think this to happen. I suggest that US500 to go down in the next 30 days or so.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
S&P 500 Shows Early Signs of Momentum Loss Ahead of Jackson HoleThe S&P 500 has begun to show signs of momentum loss ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. The number of member stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has not increased, even as the index made new highs. RSI is showing a negative divergence, and the index has slipped below its short-term yellow trendline.
In addition, crypto markets sold off early Monday, and the VIX opened the week with a gap higher, moving above its short-term downtrend. These are still only early signals and not yet concrete confirmation, but traders should be cautious of potential profit-taking ahead of Jackson Hole, where Powell may push back against expectations for rapid rate cuts.
US500 – Has the Correction Started?1. What Happened Yesterday
Yesterday, US500 dropped around 1%, signaling that a meaningful correction could be starting. Unlike Nasdaq, which already broke under two key support levels, here the price is still above the trendline that began back at the end of May, when the index broke through the important 5800 resistance.
The rise since April has been huge and not fundamentally justified, making the index vulnerable to a reversal towards more sustainable levels.
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2. Key Question
Has the correction really started, or will we first see another spike before the drop?
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3. Why More Downside is Likely
• Trendline vulnerability: A break under 6380 could trigger acceleration to the downside.
• First bear target: 6100, the old ATH.
• Bigger picture: A move under 6000 remains likely, with 5800 as a longer-term destination.
• Risk/reward setup: Any spike higher should be seen as a selling opportunity. Around 6500 would be ideal to short.
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4. Trading Plan
• Sell spikes, especially near 6500).
• Watch 6380 – break here could open the way towards 6100.
• Medium/long term bias: Bearish, with more room down than up.
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5. Final Note 🚀
The market must confirm, but the strategy is clear: don’t chase the bounce, sell the strength and ride the correction.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
New Bear Market? Heavy Tech SelloffToday the markets were shattered by weakness in mega cap tech.
All major leading companies in the QQQ were severely down.
We saw the majority of the S&P 500 sectors green with health care leading the charge.
Despite all indices closing negative this was not a full fledge market sell.
Commodities were hit across the board. Gold, Nat gas, Oil, Uranium, Silver were all down.
It seems the market is de risking into J Powell Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday / Friday.
Today we closed out NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:PLTR short & trimmed AMEX:MSOS puts for over 105%
We were very active on the option and swing trading side of the market.
I think this bubble will popWelcome fellow traders and investors.
As you might have noticed… a lot of markets are topping at this moment. I think there will be a time that this market corrects to its true value. At this moment i’m looking at a 25% dip… If might sound horrible but we we’re at this point in april.
Im watching the S&P 500 for levels around $4800 and $4500.
I hope you can get the conversations started with my opinion ;-) Good luck and enjoy the ride down… or up
The S&P could be going up OR down ... (I changed my mind)
but the daily indicators are looking more to an upward move now.
I drew a previous chart anticipating that the market would be bearish. (Please look at my previous chart for more details) But looking at the daily indicators, they look too bullish for me. As well, the S&P technically traded out of the triangle today which indicates a bullish trend. And if you look at the DIA or the NDQ they look bullish too. And these 3 indices typically trade in the similar direction.
(This is going to sound a lot like my previous chart.)
Tomorrow, the jobless claims are being reported, which should drive the market either up or down. But looking at the daily chart, it will probably go up, but I am not ruling out anything right now.
I am a technical trader but I believe the fundamentals drive the market.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks.
1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks.
2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better.
3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer.
4) And, it also gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals.
But I often switch between regular candlesticks as those are the candlesticks I started trading with and I still do get a little bit of information from the regular candlesticks.
I think we had an ascending triangle forming on the S&P with the tip forming on Friday, August 15th.
Usually, the chart can exit 2/3 before the tip. So it can start exiting the triangle before now and August 15, 2025 usually with some fundamental trigger. I suspect the trigger would be the jobless claims report on Thursday, August 14, 2025. It seems that the S&P may have exited the triangle upward today.
I was thinking the market would move lower tomorrow based on the technicals, but the daily indicators are looking too bullish right now. Therefore, I am having more of a conservative approach and I will be prepared for both directions tomorrow.
I am undecided on the targets or stops as of yet in either direction.
But if you look at my previous targets and stops they usually follow a pattern.
My trading plan only entails me to use 10% of my total account. If I am wrong on this trade, I will not implode my account.
Trade at your own risk, make sure you have stops in place, use a trading plan and only use 10% or less of your account for trading to limit your risk.
Any comments and questions are welcome.... especially this time, since I changed my mind. LOL!
Happy Trading!
I’ve Played This Game Before | SPX500 Fakeout SetupHey, it’s Skeptic.
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes. SPX500 is showing the same fakeout V pattern again — support break, bounce, then long trigger. Stay sharp, the setup is here.
If it helped you see things clearer, give it a boost and drop your thoughts below.
Let’s keep learning
Until next time, peace out.
📌 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
S&P500 Can the 4H MA50 save the day again?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a short-term pull-back following the new All Time High (ATH) on August 15 of the 3-month Channel Up. It is just above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the most common level of Support throughout this pattern, before the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which formed its last Higher Low.
As a result, as long as it holds, it is more likely to see a continuation of the Bullish Leg that started on the 4H MA200 bounce (August 01). The previous Bullish Leg peaked on a +8.80% rise, so that gives us a medium-term Target of 6750.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Why You Need LASER Focus When You Trade – 4 ReasonsTrading is not just crunching numbers.
It’s also about precision, timing, and strategy.
You need to be a perfectionist when you trade.
Because every action you take will determine where you get in and out.
Every action will determine what possible amount you can lose and what you can win.
Every action will determine whether you will add it to your track record or now.
So, I’m going to help you to develop laser focus when you trade.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might MISS a GREAT Probability Trading SETUP
Picture this…
You’ve been tracking a market for days.
The setup you’ve been waiting for finally emerges.
But you’re distracted. From your job, from an email, from the family, from your mindset or even a social media notification.
Or you have missed an important economic news calender event.
And by the time you refocus, the opportunity has slipped through your fingers.
Trading needs your undivided attention.
Each setup is like a rare gem, and you need to be sharp-eyed to spot it.
Missing out isn’t just about lost potential profit; it’s about missing the chance to execute your well-crafted strategy.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might Type in the WRONG Trading Levels
You have your setup, charts and trading platform all ready.
You’ve analyzed everything perfectly, and have your levels.
But one moment of distraction and you might type in an extra 0 or type in the wrong number.
This can lead to larger losses or even not being able to enter your trade.
Here’s an idea.
Pretend that the trade you are taking is NOT for you but rather for a big client with millions that you need to execute.
Now you will feel more obliged to execute correctly and with laser focus right?
Precision is key.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might Type in the WRONG Volume
Volume is crucial.
It’s the engine behind your trades.
It’s the amount that will determine your potential gain or loss.
If you get in with the wrong volume, it could disrupt your entire plan.
You smirk, but it’s more common than you think.
You need to look at the MINIMUM contract you can trade.
You need to work out the position size with the Position Size Calculator.
Incorrect volumes can inflate risks and distort your position size.
You can’t afford to risk more than you can financially and emotionally handle.
Be more accurate with your position sizing and your portfolio will thank you.
NO LASER FOCUS AND
You Might MISS Adjusting Profit or Stop Loss Levels
It’s common to get into a trade because the market is running away.
But then, you might forgot to put in your stop loss and take profit levels.
This can be dangerous!
Especially if you hold overnight and you aren’t awake to monitor and protect your position.
Especially, when the market gaps and you have no choice but to close your trade.
Profit and stop loss levels are like the safety net and trampoline of your trading strategy.
Keep a close eye on your trades and levels please.
Final words.
Laser focus in trading is CRUCIAL.
You are the boss of your own portfolio, financial situation and strategy.
So act like the boss with precision, accuracy and laser focus.
Let’s sum up why you need to have Laser Focus…
NO LASER FOCUS AND
~ You Might MISS a GREAT Probability Trading SETUP
~ You Might Type in the WRONG Trading Levels
~ You Might Type in the WRONG Volume
~ You Might MISS Adjusting Profit or Stop Loss Levels
S&P500 sideways consolidation resistance at 6520Summary:
The S&P 500 (-0.01%) slipped for a second consecutive session, dragged by weakness in tech.
The Magnificent 7 (-0.16%) edged lower, with Intel (-3.66%) among the worst performers on reports of a potential 10% US government stake, partly offset by news that SoftBank will buy $2bn in Intel shares.
Broader sentiment was weighed down by a hawkish rates re-pricing and a weaker-than-expected NAHB housing market index (32 vs. 34 expected).
There were some bright spots: the Russell 2000 (+0.35%) outperformed, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.08%) inched up to a 3-month high.
Geopolitics remained in focus as Trump pushed for a summit between Putin and Zelenskiy, with US and EU officials moving on security guarantees for Ukraine.
Conclusion for S&P 500 trading:
The index remains under mild pressure, reflecting rate concerns and housing weakness, while Intel headlines added volatility to tech. Broader market resilience—highlighted by small-cap outperformance—suggests downside is limited in the near term, but the S&P 500 may stay range-bound until clearer signals emerge on rates and housing momentum.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6520
Resistance Level 2: 6580
Resistance Level 3: 6637
Support Level 1: 6400
Support Level 2: 6372
Support Level 3: 6340
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Tuesday 19 August: A quiet week ahead? It's been a subdued start to the week, which I'm putting down to a bit of disappointment regarding ongoing UKRAINE talks and apprehension ahead of JACKSON HOLE. It's a shame MR POWELL'S speech is on Friday and not earlier in the week.
I don't feel confident enough in the negative sentiment to place a 'risk off' trade.
CAD CPI and a plethora of GBP data may create opportunities. Plus we have the RBNZ. But all in all we could find it to be a quiet week.
The lack of 'catalysts' throughout the summer months has been noticeable. I anticipate once September rolls round and traders return from 'summer vacation', volume 'should pick up'. If anyone feels the need for a mental break, this could be the perfect time to take it.
Personally, I'll keep my eye in, reading and listening. And I'll update my thoughts and any trades I take. But for now, it's a case of waiting for some clarity.
Is this the secret to the stock market? the holy grail?can someone with more experience and skills with analysis confirm what I'm seeing? It basically looks like I stumbled upon the secret of how the stock market works. it can't be this easy, can it? If this holds true we know with a high degree of accuracy when a correction / crash will happen and when a recovery will happen.
My specialty is pattern analysis and channels, but there is no way that deciphering the stock market is this easy. it basically says in a few days we are going to have a correction/ crash, even though we just had one. Maybe the tariff crash was premature and the market was trying to set itself up for a crash according to it's original timeline?
if this holds true it means the entire market is operating on a schedule/ cycle
SPX Weak Bearish Bias → 6440P Caution Trade
# 🏦 SPX Weekly Options Analysis – 8/18
📉 **Market Context**
* Mixed signals across metrics → weak bearish bias
* Price below VWAP → potential short-term downside
* Volume insufficient → low conviction
* Call/Put ratio neutral → no strong directional bias
---
## 🎯 Trade Setup (Cautious Put)
* **Instrument**: SPX
* **Direction**: PUT (SHORT)
* **Strike**: 6440
* **Expiry**: 2025-08-18
* **Entry Price**: \$0.60
* **Profit Target**: \$1.20
* **Stop Loss**: \$0.30
* **Size**: 1 contract
* **Confidence**: 60%
* **Entry Timing**: Market Close
---
## 📈 Breakeven @ Expiry
👉 6439.40 (Strike – Premium)
SPX must **close < 6439.40 by market close** to profit at expiry.
---
## 🧠 Key Risks
* Mixed signals → potential whipsaw ⚡
* Market structure unclear → downside not guaranteed
* Theta decay risk → short-term option, fast time decay
---
# ⚡ SPX 6440P SHORT PLAY ⚡
🎯 In: \$0.60 → Out: \$1.20
🛑 Stop: \$0.30
📅 Exp: 8/18
📈 Bias: Weak Bearish, trade cautiously 🐻
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON**
```json
{
"instrument": "SPX",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 6440.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-18",
"confidence": 0.60,
"profit_target": 1.20,
"stop_loss": 0.30,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.60,
"entry_timing": "close",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-18 15:02:25 UTC-04:00"
}
Cognitive Biases on the Chart: Spot Them Before They Cost YouMarkets have enough enemies: central banks, unexpected earnings misses, rogue tweets from billionaires. The last thing you need is your own brain quietly kneecapping your trades.
Yet, that’s exactly what happens every day — traders falling prey to cognitive biases, those sneaky mental shortcuts that can distort judgment, inflate confidence, and drain your account.
Let’s pull back the curtain on the biggest culprits.
💍 Anchoring Bias: Marrying a Trade
Ever fall in love with a number? Traders do this all the time. Anchoring bias happens when you fixate on a past price and let it lead your present decisions.
Example: You bought C3 AI NYSE:AI at $45 a pop. Now it’s under $20, and you refuse to sell because “it’ll get back to $50 and beyond.” Newsflash: the market doesn’t care about your entry. Anchoring keeps you tethered to arbitrary price points while the trend moves on without you.
👉 How to counter it : Use hard data, not nostalgia. If the chart screams breakdown, like the recent drop in NYSE:AI thanks to a sales disaster , stop waiting for a magical return to your anchor. Trade the price action, not the ghost of your buy button.
😌 Loss Aversion: Pain > Pleasure
Behavioral economists tell us that losing $100 feels about twice as bad as winning $100 feels good. Traders know this instinctively — which is why they often let losers run and cut winners short.
Think of it: you close a trade that’s up 5% because you “don’t want to lose the gains.” Meanwhile, you let the -20% red candle sit there because “it’s only a loss if I sell.”
👉 How to counter it : Flip the script. Place stop-losses and honor them religiously, especially in peak earnings season . Train your brain to view losses as part of the game — like paying rent to the market for playing on its field. Or tuition fee for your hands-on education.
🔊 Confirmation Bias: The Echo Chamber Trade
You think Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is going to $5,000. So, naturally, you seek out influencers, news, and even memes that validate your thesis, while conveniently ignoring that pesky Fed statement hinting at liquidity tightening.
This is confirmation bias: curating your information diet to make yourself feel smart, secure, and validated.
👉 How to counter it : Actively hunt for disconfirming evidence. If you’re long, force yourself to read the bear case. If it rattles you, that’s a sign your conviction might be built on shaky ground. Also, Ethereum has indeed been on a pump so strong , you’d believe it’s almost unstoppable.
💫 Recency Bias: Yesterday = Forever
Markets swing, sometimes violently. Recency bias tricks you into believing that whatever just happened will keep happening. The FX:GBPUSD advanced last Thursday ? Must keep climbing further.
Traders caught in this loop over-leverage into recent patterns, forgetting that markets are professional curveball pitchers.
👉 How to counter it : Zoom out. Intraday candles may trick you into seeing things that aren’t there in the long run. Daily, weekly and monthly charts often tell a different story.
💪 Gambler’s Fallacy: “I’m Due” Syndrome
Every roulette player knows this one: if red’s hit five times in a row, black must be next. Traders fall for the same illusion. If FX:EURUSD has surged for eight straight sessions , surely it must drop… right?
Wrong. The market doesn’t know it “owes anything.” Trends can persist longer than your margin account can survive. Reminder time: John Maynard Keynes' famously said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
👉 How to counter it : Respect momentum. Use indicators like RSI or moving averages to spot genuine exhaustion, not just wishful thinking.
😎 Overconfidence Bias: I’m Smarter Than Them
This one’s pretty widespread. After a few wins, traders start believing they’ve cracked the code. Suddenly, leverage dials up, position sizes balloon, and risk management gets left on read.
Markets love humbling overconfident traders. That “can’t miss” setup? It misses. That oversized bet? Blown up. Overconfidence is why many promising traders don’t survive past year one.
👉 How to counter it : Journal your trades . Cold, hard data has a way of deflating ego bubbles. And size positions consistently — the market doesn’t care if you “feel” more confident this time.
🐑 Herd Mentality: Everyone Can’t Be Wrong… Right?
If all of Reddit says “buy the dip,” surely they can’t be wrong. But if you’re hearing it from everyone, odds are the move already happened. Herd mentality gives comfort but rarely alpha.
It explains bubbles, FOMO runs, and why traders pile into a hot stock minutes before it tanks.
👉 How to counter it : If you’re chasing a move because everyone else is, pause. Ask: what’s my actual edge here? If the answer is “none,” step away.
💯 The Meta-Bias: Thinking You Have None
The cruel twist? Once you know about these biases, you might think you’ve conquered them. But that may not be the case. Awareness helps, but biases are hardwired into human behavior.
That’s why risk management exists. Stop-losses, adequate leverage, proper diversification — they’re not just tools, they’re counter-bias survival kits.
🙌 Final Word: Outsmarting Yourself
The market isn’t your enemy (unless you view BlackRock, Ken Griffin, the hedge fund bros, and other retail traders as enemies). Anchors, overconfidence, herds, recency — these are real chart criminals draining accounts in broad daylight.
Smart traders don’t try to eliminate biases. They build guardrails to minimize the damage. Because at the end of the day, you can’t reprogram human psychology. But you can protect your portfolio from it.
👉 Off to you : Are you tempted to “average down because it’s due” or “let it ride because I’m on fire?” Share your thoughts in the comment section!
SPX: absorbed tariffsThe US equity markets continue to be supported by positive market sentiment. The closely watched macro data during the previous week was July inflation, which was 0,2% for the month and fully in line with market estimates. It seems that for the moment, the US economy is ready to absorb the burden of increased trade tariffs and keep inflation within lower levels without too much oscillation. Such development is increasing market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September. Although the index closed the week lower, still, during the week, the S&P 500 reached another all time highest level at 6.475 on Wednesday. The index closed the week at 6.449 on Friday. Analysts are noting that this correction occurred due to weaker consumer sentiment as posted by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, inflation expectations for this year and for the period of next five years have modestly increased.
Considering a new ATH, some profit taking might occur during the week ahead, which could impact modest correction in index. However, considering continuous relatively stable inflation and strong demand posted during July, despite trade tariffs, analysts are noting that the market optimism will continue. For the week ahead, it should be also considered that a yearly Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held 21-23 August, where Fed Chair Powell is expected to hold a speech. This event is both well covered by the media and closely watched by investors, looking for an indication of a potential future move on a monetary policy side.