Bearish on SPX and bullish on XAU in the next 5 yearsIt seems that this ratio should reach 0.8 by 2030.
So be careful with your investments in the stock market and move little by little to the Gold and other safe assets!
SPXM trade ideas
# US500 Comprehensive Technical Analysis# US500 Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy
**Current Position**: 6,468.9 (Aug 23, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4)
* 🎯 Executive Summary
US500 at critical resistance zone with conservative target of 6,474-6,504 already achieved. Multiple theory convergence suggests potential for next leg to 7,000, but geopolitical tensions and seasonal weakness create mixed outlook requiring careful navigation.
---
# 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL & FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
* **Current Geopolitical Landscape**
* Major Risk Factors
*US-Russia Nuclear Tensions**: Escalating tensions following weak jobs data impact
*Israel-Iran Conflict**: Ongoing regional instability affecting energy markets
*US-China Trade Relations**: Recent trade deal progress providing support
*Federal Reserve Policy**: No rate cuts delivered despite market expectations
* Market Impact Assessment
*Risk-On/Risk-Off Dynamics**: High sensitivity to geopolitical headlines
*Energy Sector Volatility**: Middle East tensions affecting oil prices
*Technology Sector Leadership**: Trade relations critical for mega-cap performance
*Safe Haven Flows**: Potential rotation to bonds/gold during uncertainty
* **Economic Policy Environment**
* Trump Administration Factors
*Trade Policy**: Aggressive stance creating market volatility
*Federal Reserve Relations**: Potential policy conflicts affecting monetary policy
*Geopolitical Approach**: Heightened tensions impacting global markets
*Domestic Policy**: Pro-business stance supporting equity markets
---
# 📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
* **INTRADAY ANALYSIS (5M - 4H)**
* **5-Minute Timeframe Analysis**
*# Candlestick Patterns
*Current Formation**: Consolidation near resistance after gap achievement
*Key Patterns**:
*Doji/Spinning Tops near 6,470**: Indecision at resistance
*Hammer below 6,450**: Support bounce signal
*Shooting Star above 6,485**: Distribution warning
*Volume Analysis**: Decreasing volume on advances (concerning)
*# Technical Indicators
*RSI(14)**: 68-72 (Approaching overbought)
*VWAP**: 6,462 ± 12 (Dynamic pivot)
*Bollinger Bands**: Upper band at 6,485, middle at 6,460
*EMA(20)**: 6,458 (immediate support)
*# 5M Trading Setup
*Long Entry**: Break above 6,480 with volume >200% avg
*Stop Loss**: Below 6,450 (30 point risk)
*Target 1**: 6,510 (R:R 1:1)
*Target 2**: 6,540 (R:R 1:2.7)
* **15-Minute Timeframe Analysis**
*# Harmonic Patterns
*Active Pattern**: Potential Butterfly completion at 6,420-6,440
*ABCD Pattern**: Current C-D leg targeting 6,500-6,520
*Fibonacci Confluence**:
- 61.8% extension at 6,495
- 78.6% extension at 6,525
- 100% extension at 6,550
*# Wyckoff Analysis (15M)
*Phase**: Testing phase in potential distribution
*Character**: Professional money taking profits
*Volume**: Declining on advances (bearish divergence)
*Next Phase**: Either markup continuation or distribution
*# 15M Strategy
*Reversal Play**: Short at 6,485-6,490 resistance
*Stop Loss**: Above 6,505 (15-20 point risk)
*Target 1**: 6,440 (R:R 1:2.25)
*Target 2**: 6,410 (R:R 1:3.75)
* **30-Minute Timeframe Analysis**
*# Elliott Wave Structure
*Primary Count**: Wave 5 of (5) of V in progress
- Wave 1: 6,350 → 6,420
- Wave 2: 6,420 → 6,380
- Wave 3: 6,380 → 6,470 (current)
- Wave 4 Expected: 6,430-6,445
- Wave 5 Target: 6,500-6,540
*# Alternative Elliott Count
*Distribution Scenario**: Wave (5) completion at current levels
*Correction Target**: 6,200-6,300 (wave A of correction)
*Timeline**: 2-4 weeks if confirmed
*# W.D. Gann Analysis (30M)
*Square of 9**:
- 6,400 = 80² (major support)
- 6,480 = 80.5² (current resistance)
- 6,561 = 81² (next major target)
*Time Theory**: Next major window Aug 26-28
*Angle Theory**: 2x1 Gann line at 6,350 (major support)
* **1-Hour Timeframe Analysis**
*# Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
*Tenkan-sen (9)**: 6,465 (resistance turned support)
*Kijun-sen (26)**: 6,440 (key support level)
*Kumo Cloud**: 6,380-6,420 (major support zone)
*Chikou Span**: At resistance level (neutral)
*Future Cloud**: Thinning, potential bearish twist
*# Moving Average Analysis
*SMA(20)**: 6,455
*EMA(20)**: 6,463
*SMA(50)**: 6,420
*EMA(50)**: 6,435
*SMA(200)**: 6,200
*MA Status**: All short-term MAs above long-term (bullish structure)
*# 1H Swing Setup
*Pattern**: Rising wedge near completion
*Breakout Target**: 6,520-6,550 if upside
*Breakdown Target**: 6,380-6,400 if downside
*Volume Key**: Direction determined by volume
* **4-Hour Timeframe Analysis**
*# Advanced Pattern Recognition
*Rising Wedge**: Potential exhaustion pattern
*Double Top Risk**: At 6,470-6,480 resistance zone
*Volume Divergence**: Lower highs on volume vs. price
*Key Levels**:
*Major Resistance**: 6,480-6,500
*Critical Support**: 6,420-6,440
*Major Support**: 6,350-6,380
*# 4H Position Strategy
*Conservative Approach**: Wait for clear breakout/breakdown
*Breakout Play**: Above 6,495 targets 6,600-6,700
*Breakdown Play**: Below 6,420 targets 6,300-6,350
*Risk Management**: Wide stops due to volatility
---
# 📈 SWING ANALYSIS (Daily - Monthly)
* **Daily Timeframe**
* Elliott Wave Daily Structure
*Supercycle**: Wave (V) from 2009 lows in final stages
*Cycle**: Wave 5 of (V) potentially completing
*Primary**: Wave (5) of 5 targeting 7,000-7,500
*Current Status**: Near-term correction likely before final push
* Long-term Elliott Projection
*Grand Supercycle Target**: 7,500-8,000 (completion of secular bull)
*Post-Peak Correction**: 30-50% decline expected
*Timeline**: Peak likely 2025-2026
* Wyckoff Daily Analysis
*Phase**: Late markup or early distribution
*Accumulation**: Completed in 2022-2023 lows
*Distribution Signs**: Volume divergence emerging
*Professional Money**: Likely reducing exposure
* Gann Daily Forecasting
*Annual Cycle**: Peak traditionally August-September
*Master Time Cycle**: 7-year cycle topping 2025-2026
*Price Squares**:
- 6,561 = 81² (immediate major target)
- 6,724 = 82² (extended target)
- 6,889 = 83² (maximum extension)
* **Weekly Timeframe**
* Major Wave Structure
*Grand Supercycle**: Wave (V) from 1932 lows
*Supercycle**: Final wave of multi-decade advance
*Cycle**: Wave 5 characteristics - breadth divergence
* Weekly Harmonic Analysis
*Shark Pattern**: Potential completion 6,800-7,000
*Crab Pattern**: Deep retracement target 4,800-5,200
*Butterfly Extension**: 7,200-7,500 maximum target
* Breadth Analysis (Critical)
*Mag-7 Divergence**: Only Nvidia, Microsoft above 2024 highs
*Market Participation**: Narrowing leadership
*Advance-Decline**: Weakening underneath
*Warning**: Every major correction begins with breadth divergence
* **Monthly Timeframe**
* Macro Elliott Wave
*Primary Degree**: Final wave of secular bull market
*Cycle Completion**: 16-year advance from 2009 lows
*Post-Completion**: Major bear market 2026-2028 risk
* Monthly Indicators
*RSI**: 70+ (Extremely overbought)
*MACD**: Bearish divergence developing
*Volume**: Declining participation
*Sentiment**: Euphoric levels
---
# 🎯 CRITICAL LEVELS & TARGETS
* **Immediate Levels (24-48 Hours)**
* Resistance Hierarchy
*R1**: 6,480-6,490 (immediate ceiling)
*R2**: 6,500-6,510 (psychological)
*R3**: 6,540-6,550 (measured move)
*R4**: 6,580-6,600 (extension target)
* Support Structure
*S1**: 6,450-6,460 (immediate floor)
*S2**: 6,420-6,430 (key support)
*S3**: 6,380-6,400 (major support)
*S4**: 6,350-6,370 (critical support)
* **Short-term Projections (1-2 Weeks)**
* Bullish Scenario (45% Probability)
*Target 1**: 6,550-6,600
*Target 2**: 6,650-6,700
*Target 3**: 6,750-6,800
*Catalyst**: Geopolitical resolution, Fed dovishness
* Bearish Scenario (55% Probability)
*Target 1**: 6,300-6,350
*Target 2**: 6,200-6,250
*Target 3**: 6,100-6,150
*Catalyst**: Geopolitical escalation, earnings disappointment
---
# 📅 DAILY TRADING STRATEGIES WITH GEOPOLITICAL OVERLAY
* **MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 2025**
* Geopolitical Context
*Weekend News Flow**: Monitor US-Russia tensions
*Asian Markets**: Tokyo/Shanghai performance as risk gauge
*Energy Prices**: Oil reaction to Middle East developments
* Market Expectations
*Gap Scenario**: Likely gap down on geopolitical concerns
*Volume**: Expected above average due to news flow
*Volatility**: Increased due to uncertainty
* **Trading Strategies**
*# Setup 1: Gap Down Recovery
*Condition**: Gap down 50-100 points on news
*Entry**: Bounce from 6,380-6,400 support
*Stop Loss**: Below 6,350 (30-50 point risk)
*Target 1**: 6,450 (R:R 1:1.5)
*Target 2**: 6,480 (R:R 1:2.6)
*# Setup 2: News Fade Strategy
*Logic**: Initial overreaction to geopolitical news
*Entry**: 30 minutes after open, counter-trend
*Size**: Half normal position due to risk
*Stops**: Tight 20-30 points
*Targets**: Previous day's close
*# Setup 3: Safe Haven Rotation
*Monitor**: VIX spike >25, Dollar strength
*Strategy**: Avoid longs, consider defensive sectors
*Hedge**: Small position in TLT/GLD if available
* Risk Management Monday
*Reduced Position Size**: 50% of normal due to news risk
*Early Exits**: Don't hold through major news
*News Monitoring**: Real-time geopolitical updates
---
* **TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2025**
* Technical Focus
*Gann Time Window**: Major reversal potential
*Elliott Wave**: Critical juncture for wave completion
*Volume Analysis**: Confirm Monday's move validity
* **Primary Strategies**
*# Setup 1: Reversal Recognition
*Bullish Reversal**: If Monday oversold
- Entry: Above Monday high with volume
- Target: 6,500-6,550
- Stop: Monday low
*# Setup 2: Trend Continuation
*Bearish Continuation**: If Monday breakdown confirmed
- Entry: Break below Monday low
- Target: 6,300-6,350
- Stop: Monday high
*# Setup 3: Range Development
*Consolidation Play**: If Monday indecisive
- Range: 6,420-6,480
- Buy: Lower third, Sell: Upper third
- Stops: Outside range
---
* **WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025**
* Mid-Week Dynamics
*FOMC Watch**: Any policy communications
*Earnings Impact**: Individual stock influence on index
*Technical Patterns**: Triangle/flag completion expected
* **Strategy Focus**
*# Setup 1: Breakout Preparation
*Pattern**: Symmetrical triangle likely
*Volume**: Must exceed 150% average for validity
*Direction**: Follow volume-confirmed break
*Targets**: Triangle height projected
*# Setup 2: Geopolitical Hedge
*If Tensions Escalate**: Defensive positioning
*Safe Haven Trade**: Consider inverse correlation plays
*Sector Rotation**: Utilities, Consumer Staples outperformance
---
* **THURSDAY, AUGUST 29, 2025**
* Pre-Weekend Positioning
*Options Impact**: Weekly expiration influence
*Institutional Flow**: Month-end portfolio adjustments
*Seasonal Factors**: August weakness historically
* **Advanced Strategies**
*# Setup 1: Monthly Close Positioning
*Above 6,500**: Bullish monthly signal
*Below 6,400**: Bearish monthly warning
*Strategy**: Position for September based on close
*# Setup 2: Volatility Play
*High IV**: Consider spreads vs. outright positions
*Time Decay**: Thursday afternoon premium burn
*Weekend Risk**: Avoid holding through news risk
---
* **FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 2025**
* Monthly/Weekly Close Significance
*Technical Importance**: Key for longer timeframe analysis
*Institutional Rebalancing**: Quarter-end proximityMonth-end flows
*Geopolitical Risk**: Weekend headline risk elevated
* **End-of-Week Strategies**
*# Setup 1: Monthly Close Play
*Strong Close >6,500**: Bullish for September
*Weak Close <6,400**: Defensive September positioning
*Volume**: Critical for signal validity
*# Setup 2: Weekend Risk Management
*Geopolitical Headlines**: Reduce exposure before close
*Position Sizing**: Smaller positions if held
*Hedging**: Consider protective strategies
---
# 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIO PLANNING
* **Scenario 1: Escalation (30% Probability)**
* Triggers
*Nuclear Rhetoric**: US-Russia tensions worsen
*Middle East Conflict**: Israel-Iran direct confrontation
*Trade War**: China relations deteriorate
* Market Impact
*S&P 500 Target**: 5,800-6,200 (10-15% decline)
*Timeline**: 2-6 weeks
*Sectors**: Energy up, Tech down
*Safe Havens**: USD, Bonds, Gold outperform
* Trading Strategy
*Defensive Positioning**: Reduce equity exposure
*Sector Rotation**: Utilities, Consumer Staples
*Hedging**: VIX calls, Put spreads
*Cash Raise**: 20-30% cash allocation
* **Scenario 2: De-escalation (40% Probability)**
* Catalysts
*Diplomatic Progress**: Conflict resolution
*Trade Deal**: US-China agreement extension
*Fed Dovishness**: Rate cut delivery
* Market Impact
*S&P 500 Target**: 6,800-7,200 (5-15% rally)
*Timeline**: 4-12 weeks
*Leadership**: Technology, Growth sectors
*Risk Assets**: Full participation
* Trading Strategy
*Growth Positioning**: Technology, Discretionary
*Momentum Strategy**: Follow strength
*International**: Emerging markets participation
*Leverage**: Moderate use appropriate
* **Scenario 3: Status Quo (30% Probability)**
* Characteristics
*Contained Tensions**: No major escalation/resolution
*Policy Uncertainty**: Fed remains cautious
*Seasonal Weakness**: August/September patterns
* Market Impact
*S&P 500 Range**: 6,200-6,600 consolidation
*Timeline**: 2-4 months
*Volatility**: Elevated but contained
*Rotation**: Sector/style rotation active
* Trading Strategy
*Range Trading**: Buy dips, Sell rips
*Sector Rotation**: Follow momentum
*Options Strategies**: Premium selling advantageous
*Patience**: Wait for clear direction
---
# ⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
* **Geopolitical Risk Framework**
* News Monitoring
*Real-time Alerts**: Reuters, Bloomberg terminals
*Social Media**: Twitter/X for breaking news
*Official Channels**: White House, Fed communications
*International**: Foreign ministry statements
* Position Sizing Adjustments
*High Tension**: 25-50% normal size
*Moderate Risk**: 50-75% normal size
*Low Risk**: 75-100% normal size
*Crisis Mode**: 0-25% normal size
* **Technical Risk Management**
* Stop Loss Methodology
*News-Based**: Wider stops during high news flow
*Volatility-Adjusted**: ATR-based stop distances
*Time-Based**: Intraday stops more aggressive
*Support/Resistance**: Technical level stops
* Position Management
*Scale-In**: Build positions gradually
*Scale-Out**: Take profits in tranches
*Hedging**: Protective strategies during uncertainty
*Correlation**: Monitor cross-asset relationships
---
# 📊 PERFORMANCE TRACKING & ADAPTATION
* **Daily Review Protocol**
* Market Assessment
*Geopolitical Events**: Impact on price action
*Technical Levels**: Held/broken significance
*Volume Analysis**: Institutional participation
*Sector Performance**: Risk-on/Risk-off confirmation
* Strategy Effectiveness
*News-Based Trades**: Success rate tracking
*Technical Setups**: Pattern reliability
*Risk Management**: Stop effectiveness
*Geopolitical Hedge**: Protection value
* **Weekly Adaptation**
* Strategy Refinement
*Market Regime**: Risk-on vs. Risk-off dominance
*Volatility Environment**: High/low vol strategies
*News Flow**: Predictable vs. random events
*Seasonal Factors**: August/September tendencies
---
# 🚨 CRITICAL DECISION POINTS
* **Immediate Catalysts (Next 24-48 Hours)**
* Technical Triggers
*6,480 Break**: Acceleration to 6,550-6,600
*6,450 Break**: Correction to 6,380-6,400
*Volume Spike**: Confirms directional move
*VIX >25**: Risk-off mode activated
* Geopolitical Triggers
*Diplomatic Breakthrough**: Risk-on rally
*Military Action**: Risk-off decline
*Fed Communication**: Policy expectation shift
*China Trade News**: Tech sector impact
* **Weekly Watchpoints**
* Technical Invalidation
*Elliott Wave**: Below 6,350 invalidates bullish count
*Harmonic**: Failure at 6,420 negates patterns
*Wyckoff**: Volume divergence confirms distribution
* Geopolitical Escalation
*Nuclear Threshold**: Market circuit breakers
*Oil Shock**: Energy crisis impact
*Currency Crisis**: Dollar strength/weakness
---
# 🎯 FINAL STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
* **Base Case (Status Quo - 30%)**
*Range**: 6,300-6,600 for 4-8 weeks
*Strategy**: Range trading, sector rotation
*Timeline**: Through September seasonal weakness
* **Bull Case (De-escalation - 40%)**
*Target**: 6,800-7,200 by Q4 2025
*Strategy**: Growth momentum, technology leadership
*Catalysts**: Geopolitical resolution, Fed cuts
* **Bear Case (Escalation - 30%)**
*Target**: 5,800-6,200 correction
*Strategy**: Defensive positioning, safe havens
*Timeline**: 2-6 weeks sharp decline
* **Black Swan (Crisis - 5%)**
*Target**: 5,000-5,500 (20%+ decline)
*Strategy**: Full defensive, cash heavy
*Triggers**: Nuclear incident, systemic crisis
---
**⚡ EXECUTION PRIORITY**: Given elevated geopolitical risks and technical resistance at 6,468.9, maintain defensive bias with reduced position sizing. Monitor news flow continuously and be prepared for rapid strategy pivots based on developing events. The convergence of seasonal weakness, technical resistance, and geopolitical uncertainty creates a challenging environment requiring maximum flexibility and strict risk management.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 22, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading activity of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index experienced significant volatility before reestablishing its strong bullish trend. Initially, the Index faced a substantial decline, reaching our designated target of Mean Support at 6370. Subsequently, it rebounded vigorously, attaining our target of Mean Resistance at 6470, and is currently aiming for the Outer Index Rally target of 6543. It is essential to recognize, however, that there remains a possibility of a decline to Mean Support at 6426 before the upward trajectory resumes.
US500 at All-Time High – Pullback or Breakout Ahead?The US500 has reached the All-Time High (ATH) zone after a strong bullish leg.
We are now at a key decision point: will the price correct lower to gather strength, or break out and extend the rally?
📊 Scenario 1 – Pullback before breakout
Possible rejection at the ATH with a correction toward the 6440–6460 support/resistance zone.
If buyers defend this area, it could provide a solid long entry opportunity.
📊 Scenario 2 – Direct breakout
A clean breakout above 6480–6500 with strong volume could trigger another bullish wave.
Waiting for confirmation is crucial to avoid a false breakout.
⚖️ Conclusion
The broader trend remains bullish (H4 uptrend line intact). The most likely path is a continued move higher, potentially after a short pullback to relieve buying pressure.
👉 This is an educational analysis only, not financial advice.
Trendline Break To The Downside In SPX/USDHey Traders and followers! Hope your summer has been going great along with your profits $
Take your money off the table in SPX if you are long and jump into a short as we have a trendline break to the downside on the 12hr chart.
Price has broke through the sell zone area of 6436.6 painting a bearish picture for SPX way down to 5980.6 area.
If price breaks back up above 6436.6 area then the bearish break trade will be off the table.
Best of luck in all your trades $$$
S&P 500 Eyes Breakout as Powell Signals Rate CutThe S&P 500 is once again approaching record territory, with momentum accelerating after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a potential rate cut at Jackson Hole. Markets welcomed the dovish shift, boosting risk appetite and driving stocks higher.
Beyond Powell’s comments, several other factors are fueling the rally. Softer inflation readings have reinforced the case for easier policy, while labor market data shows a cooling trend without triggering recession fears. This “goldilocks” scenario continues to support equities.
Strong corporate earnings have also underpinned the move, particularly from the tech and consumer sectors, where margins remain resilient despite macro uncertainty. Capital inflows into equity ETFs highlight renewed investor confidence, while declining bond yields are making stocks relatively more attractive.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 is pushing toward the 6,500 level, its all-time high. A clean break above this barrier would confirm fresh upside momentum, potentially triggering further buying from trend-following funds.
While risks remain from geopolitics and trade tensions, the current mix of easing Fed expectations, solid earnings, and supportive technicals suggests the index could extend higher. A breakout above 6,500 may set the stage for another leg in the bull market.
Greatest buyback opportunity on SPX @ 3,958$!SPX should see an increase to 6,860$ and then see a financial crash like drop to 4,817$ at the least. Thereafter, to drive other asset classes even lower such as BTC, SPX will drop even lower to 3,958$!
That's the price action I expect to see over the next few weeks, months etc.
Jackson Hole Insights: US500 in the SpotlightUS500 is up from the previous session. Despite recent volatility, the index is up more than 0.30% over the past month and more than 13% yoy.
The index hit an all-time high above 6,400 earlier in August but has since seen some pullback, reflecting a “market wobble” as traders anticipate signals from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Fundamental Analysis
Short-term price action has been mixed. Tech and chip stocks have weighed on performance, while a rotation into defensive and healthcare sectors has helped cushion declines.
Recent earnings misses by major retailers, including Walmart have stoked concerns about consumer resilience amidst ongoing higher tariffs and uneven spending patterns.
Despite near term caution, the index remains resilient with buyers coming in at lower levels and support levels seen around 6,300 and 6,150. Pullbacks are viewed as likely to be short lived unless new external shocks arise.
Technical Analysis
If the index breaks above resistance near 6,406, a push toward 6,500 and 6,650 is possible.
Bearish Risk: A breakdown below the 6,300 - 6,150 region could trigger a pullback toward 6,075 or lower, but this remains a scenario barring a major negative shock.
Overall US 500 remains resilient despite intermittent corrections and sector rotations. The outlook is broadly positive, especially if Fed signals from Jackson Hole remain supportive and corporate earnings stay resilient
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SPX500 Market Outlook | Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in FocusSPX500 – Overview
U.S. Sectors in Spotlight Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Gathering
Wall Street is awaiting confirmation of a potential September interest rate cut when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday — a potentially pivotal event for markets, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors.
This year’s gathering comes after a week of mixed inflation data, as consumer and wholesale price reports gave conflicting signals on how well the U.S. economy is handling President Trump’s import tariffs, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.
After cutting rates by 50 bps in September 2024 and 25 bps in both November and December, the Fed has since held steady. Rising expectations of another cut next month have buoyed homebuilders, banks, and retailers, though a hawkish surprise from Powell could weigh on these sectors.
🔎 Technical Outlook
Bearish Scenario:
As long as price trades below 6389, downside pressure remains, targeting 6366 and, if broken, extending toward 6321.
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed 1H/4H close above 6389 would open the way toward 6406 – 6425, with a stronger push possible toward 6468.
📍 Key Levels
Pivot: 6389
Support: 6366 – 6341 – 6321
Resistance: 6406 – 6425 – 6468
⚠️ Expect heightened volatility during Powell’s Jackson Hole speech — risk management is essential.
SPX - still looking lower in coming daysNot much has changed in last 24hrs. Market is drifting sideways making new intraday lows. Still looking lower. Line in the sand for SPX 6385 area.
SPX500 H4 | Bearish dropS&P500 has rejected off the sell entry at 6,407.74, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Stop is at 6,491.06, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 6,302.91, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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SPX: Bad news if support breaksSPX is coming up on the support area around 6300. Next week will be the do or die test. If support trendline breaks, then probability of Minor degree B wave goes up by a lot. Right now, the bullish scenario is on the red path. If, SPX gets support on the trendline and bounces to make another ATH along with Daily and Weekly RSI making another lower high, then that would be the local top. More bearish scenario is if the support breaks right now. That will put SPX on the green path; breakdown, retest trendline and then crash. In that case, should expect correction to last till the end of September; maybe till mid October, and then the Halloween rally to finish up the year. Should expect market to get down to 0.618 to 0.5 fib level before the down turn is over. Do not want to see the market get below 5k. For now, the trendline is where the next move will most likely be decided. I do not think the generational crash is here just yet. There are still a lot of investors on the side lines. Crypto market still hasn't seen the blow off top. Underlying economy is still holding steady, even though some cracks are appearing. Depending on how the correction unfolds, either a 3 or a 5 waves move, we will find out the magnitude and the degree.
End of 2025: 3 Fed scenarios and their impact on the marketThe FED has not cut the federal funds rate since the end of 2024. Let's take a look at the 3 possible scenarios for the Fed funds rate between now and the end of the year, and the impact on the stock market for equities, bonds, the US dollar and Bitcoin.
The table below summarizes the 3 possible scenarios and their possible impact on the stock market.
1) No FED pivot for the whole of 2025 (the most bearish case for risky assets on the stock market)
In this case, the FED would keep rates unchanged for the whole of 2025 in order to continue the fight against inflation. The market would find itself trapped by its expectations, as it anticipates an easing by the end of the year. On the stock market, this would trigger a major correction in the S&P 500, currently valued at levels close to its 2021 highs. Two-year interest rates would rebound, as would long-term bond yields, leading to increased pressure on US government debt and lower bond prices. The US dollar is expected to rebound strongly, driven by a technical bullish pattern, reinforcing its attractiveness on the foreign exchange market. Finally, in the crypto-currencies, a sustained bear market would set in, with an estimated average duration of thirteen months (the famous bear market of BTC's 4-year cycle), marking a major reversal for Bitcoin and altcoins.
2) A “technical” pivot by the FED (1 isolated rate cut)
This intermediate scenario would correspond to a cut in key rates as early as September or October 2025, following the arrival of Stephen Miran on the FOMC. However, this cut would remain isolated and would not mark the start of a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, as inflation would still be too high. On the equity markets, this would translate into a consolidation phase: the S&P 500 would move in a corridor between 5800 points and its recent record highs. Two-year yields would stabilize at around 4%, hovering around their 200-day moving average, with a slight rise in bond prices, especially in the event of a weak job market. The US dollar would also stabilize, with a moderate appreciation on the foreign exchange market. As for crypto-currencies, the impact would be neutral to slightly bullish, with the possibility of a final peak before the next bear market settles in, linked to the four-year cycle seen on Bitcoin.
3) A “real” FED pivot (several rate cuts between now and the end of December 2025)
In the case of a real monetary pivot, the FED would cut its key rate in September, followed by two further cuts before the end of the year. This scenario would have a markedly positive impact on equity markets, with the S&P 500 possibly reaching the 6700-point target. On the rates side, this would lead to a marked downtrend, with new lows for short- and long-term yields, while bond prices would start to rise sharply again. The US dollar would enter a prolonged downtrend, with a target of 95 points for the DXY index. Last but not least, crypto-currencies are set to benefit from this accommodating climate: Bitcoin and altcoins are likely to see their prices rise, marking the end of a bullish cycle at the end of the year.
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SPX500 & NAS100 BULLISH and GOLD NEUTRALIn this week's analysis of the major indices and Gold, there is a lot of indicator divergences on the charts. However, while momentum is declined and the divergences are not confirmed yet, suggesting that the train has not come to a complete stop in my opinion. Yes!, we could be nearing the Tops but I could not confirm that on the chart. Secondly, price action just broke into a new high from a defended support zone and that suggest that Bulls are in control of the market currently for both SPX500 and NAS100.
GOLD is still in a neutral zone consolidating sideways and I think based on the chart analysis, it continues to go sideways after a push down to about 3320 and then a rise to about 3419 Target.
I hope you find the analysis informative and I thank you for visiting my video publication. Cheers and have a great trading week.
Precision vs. Accuracy in Trading🎯 Precision vs. Accuracy in Trading
Most traders obsess about being right. They chase accuracy, trying to predict every move. But here’s the truth:
Accuracy = being directionally correct.
Your system captures real market tendencies, even if it’s only right 40–50% of the time.
Precision = consistent execution.
You take trades exactly as your rules demand—same position sizing, same stops, same discipline—regardless of outcome.
💡 Without precision, accuracy doesn’t matter.
A system with edge can’t pay you if you trade it inconsistently.
👉 The pro’s mindset:
Accuracy is revealed over hundreds of trades.
Precision is applied on every single trade.
Better to be precise with a simple system than sloppy with a brilliant one.
Takeaway:
Accuracy gives you edge. Precision allows you to realise it.
The ascending triangle of the SPX JUST adjusted today ...making the tip of the triangle widen a little, therefore putting the tip of the triangle farther out. The tip of the triangle is now at around Sept. 2, 2025. Technically, the equity or whatever you are trading can exit out of the triangle anytime from 2/3 to 3/4 of the triangle length. Since the half and hour and the one hour indicators are indicating a bullish move, I do not think the market will continue lower tomorrow.
Historically, the markets have gone down in October. I suspect that the SPY is going to keep going up, then retrace briefly until we reach a point where the market decides to go down significantly. Could that be October ... maybe?!? I don't know. I do not have a crystal ball.
But, I drew a trend line from the big drop from Feb to April upward. (see the dotted black line) Coincidentally, this trend line crosses the 1.618 fibinocci threshold in the beginning of October. (indicated by a gold star)
This is just the same information I have posted in my previous charts.
I am a technical trader but I believe the fundamentals drive the market.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks.
1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks.
2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better.
3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer.
4) And, it also gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals.
But I often switch between regular candlesticks as those are the candlesticks I started trading with and I still do get a little bit of information from the regular candlesticks.
I personally find:
* the 5 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next half and hour.
* the 10 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next hour.
* the 30 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the daily.
* and, the hour indicators typically represents what will happen in the next week.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading.
I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I will hopefully try to explain these in future trading charts.
My trading plan only entails me to use 10% of my total account. If I am wrong on this trade, I will not implode my account.
Trade at your own risk, make sure you have stops in place, use a trading plan and only use 10% or less of your account for trading to limit your risk.
Any comments and questions are welcome.... conversation and dialog allows us to learn more.
I am trying to expand outside of the SPY and DIA, so hopefully, I will tackle some other symbols.
Happy Trading everyone!
SP500 Secondary trend. Part of the channel. Reversal zone. 2025 Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (less is not necessary). The SP500 index primarily reflects the "health" of the American stock market and the economy as a whole. This is reflected in all markets by the domino effect.
Now, after a huge takeout and recovery, the price is at the maximums of the local trend that has formed, and this is also the maximum of the index as a whole for its entire 100-year existence (before displaying on the chart).
🔄 Locally, the price has run into the resistance of the median of the ascending channel (green dotted line). Now the resistance level of this zone will be formed.
🟢 A breakout of this zone upwards - an exit above the median, promises strong growth and pumping of the stock market as a whole.
🔴 And the reverse process is not a breakthrough and not a consolidation above this zone - consolidation in the range under resistance and above the dynamic support of the internal channel. An extremely negative case is a decline in the lower zone of the channel.
🧠 The chart as a whole shows the channel range itself. Including on both sides, price slippage zones (low probability), as well as key support / resistance levels of this secondary trend that exist, and those that will be formed in the future, but will be key for the development of the trend. This can be an addition to the analysis and formation of tactics and money management in other markets, including cryptocurrency.
Are Longterm Interest Rates Telling Us Something?I rarely cite financial news in my market updates.
My reasoning is simple: all perspectives, bullish or bearish, are ultimately reflected in price action. That price action forms patterns, and those patterns can be analyzed to produce reasonable forecasts. After years of applying Elliott Wave theory, this approach has consistently stood the test of time.
That said, I’ll break from tradition today, as I believe the following excerpt is particularly relevant to my latest Trading View update. It comes from Barbara Kollmeyer’s article, “There’s a slow-motion crisis in bonds — and this bearish strategist thinks it will hit stocks.”
For context, I regularly track multiple market indices, futures contracts, single stocks, and notably, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond. For the past year, I’ve highlighted the counterintuitive rise in long-term yields that ironically began when the Fed started cutting its benchmark rate in September 2024. While brief divergences between long-term yields and Fed policy aren’t unusual, this persistent uptrend is different. The yield has been carving out a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, appearing now on the verge of a breakout—not just toward incremental new highs, but potentially into a runaway scenario for long-term rates.
This is why Albert Edwards’ recent comments caught my attention:
“There is a slow-motion crisis unfolding in the government bond markets that equity investors continue to ignore at their peril. The upward grind for long bond yields has been relentless, yet investors keep ignoring that to focus instead on more bullish metrics such as the latest reporting season driven by the mega-cap IT stocks, that promises a pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.”
His perspective resonated with me.
Having lived through the dot-com boom and bust, I recall how new technologies can fuel outsized market optimism. AI undoubtedly carries transformational potential, much like the Internet. But just as it took nearly two decades for the Internet to fully translate from speculative boom to tangible economic value, AI’s payoff will likely follow a similarly extended trajectory. It’s not an immediate catalyst.
What I am certain of is this: the cost of long-term money is rising, with implications far beyond bond charts. Higher yields directly affect mortgage rates and other long-term financing costs. More importantly, sustained upward pressure in long-term rates has the potential to weigh heavily on equities, broader markets, and asset valuations for far longer than many currently expect.
Short term long f4om demand on m30 on esLooking to go long between 6372 and 6362 with stop below 6362 for a quick upmove into today's highs.
S&P dip buying opportunity supported at 6340US equities staged a sharp intraday rebound, with the S&P 500 recovering from losses of over -1% to close down just -0.24%. Tech remained under pressure (NASDAQ -0.67%, Mag-7 -1.11%), weighed by reports questioning the near-term profitability of AI adoption, though DB research stressed that productivity gains are still likely longer term. Gains in energy (+0.86%) and other cyclical sectors helped offset the tech weakness as Brent crude rose +1.6% to $66.84/bbl. Geopolitical headlines around Ukraine and potential security arrangements kept risk sentiment cautious.
Conclusion: Despite renewed tech volatility, the S&P’s resilience and sectoral rotation suggest dip-buying interest remains intact, but with near-term upside likely capped until tech stabilises.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6433
Resistance Level 2: 6466
Resistance Level 3: 6500
Support Level 1: 6340
Support Level 2: 6310
Support Level 3: 6280
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