GPRO: Ready for upside movementOnce it breaches the inner channel, it will bounce to 27 - 28 where it will face some resistance.
Trade ideas
OPTIONS TIP: WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN A COVERED CALL SETUPI've been looking at quite a few of these setups lately, so thought I'd post a bit of what I'm looking for in these.
1. Implied Volatility. As a premium seller, high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility in an underlying are my general signals as to whether to consider a trade. This is because higher implied volatility results in richer premium, and you want to sell richer premiumed short calls in these setups to reduce your cost basis more dramatically or, at the very least, reduce it to such an extent that your breakeven for the setup is favorable to a profitable outcome.
2. Price. This is a purely subjective element in my decision-making process. The question always is: "How much do I want to devote in buying power to this trade?"
That being said, there is obviously less risk as a general matter when you put on a covered call in CHK, for example, as compared to CMG. If CHK goes to "0", for example, I'm only out $445 maximum (although I do keep the premium for the short calls sold); for CMG, I'm out $49500 (minus the value of the short call premiums collected). This is the very reason why I like to restrict these plays to underlyings that are valued $20 and less. Even if the underlying goes totally belly up, I'm not left on the street corner with a tin can ... .
3. Due Diligence. I tend to do far more due diligence with covered calls than I do with short strangle earnings plays. A lot of these covered call plays, after all, are partly attractive because the underlying has been severely battered for one reason or another, and I naturally want to know if there is risk associated with that reason such that a covered call doesn't make sense or poses more downside risk such that I could be in the trade for far longer than I consider ideal.
4. Break Even Metrics. For obvious reasons, having a setup breakeven below some significant price inflection point (52-week low, etc.) presents a more attractive setup than one that is "in the middle of things."
5. Correlation. Various sectors experience heightened volatility at various times. Don't overdo working a particular sector, even though that seems to be the profitable way to go in the short run. Look at all the possible plays and work the most potentially profitable among them.
6. Covered Call Screeners. I do use a covered call screener, but this is largely to "cull the herd" down to some kind of manageable number of plays to examine. These screeners suffer from a number of flaws, not the least of which is the usual suggestion that I go way farther out than 45 days with my short call to take in enough premium to make the play attractive.
7. Profit Taking. I look to take profit intratrade if the entire setup is in profit equal to what I would get if called away for the price of my short strike. If my short strike at some point is nearing worthless, I look to either take it off near worthless or roll it out to capture additional premium and further reduce my cost basis in my underlying position.
GPRO -- COVERED CALL/SHORT STRANGLE IDEASEven though GPRO appears to be in a bit of a consolidative state here, volatility in the underlying remains high, with a currently implied volatility rank of 83 and an implied volatlity of 87. Translation: rich premium to be had.
I currently have a short strangle on, so I'm not going to be putting anything on here, but I figured I'd share nonetheless.
There are two possible setups:
Covered Call
100 GPRO at 18.22
Sell 1 Feb 19th 19 Call
Whole Package: $1718 (meaning your break even is $17.18 per share, excluding fees/commissions)
Max Profit: $182 (if called away at $19).
Short Strangle
Feb 5 13.5/23 short strangle
POP%: 76%
Max Profit: $108/contract
BPE: ~Undefined (Off Hours)
BE's: 12.42/24.08
Notes: GPRO's earnings are currently scheduled to be announced on 2/4, so both setups would run afoul of that. I wouldn't necessarily let that put me off throwing on a trade, but would look to take off the short strangle in particular in profit short of the earnings announcement, just so that my setup wasn't ripped about with earnings related price action.
With the short call in the covered call setup, I would be a little bit more psychologically comfortable straddling earnings, but would look either to roll out the short call in the covered call setup to take advantage of heightened volatility and therefore enriched premium or take the whole setup off at an opportune moment, such as when price breaks 19 ... .
Potential GPRO LongGPRO is diverging from the market even with a huge selloff today... I believe there is some interest in GPRO at these levels because of the huge amount of shares floating short. Potentially a bounce into the $30 area sometime soon.
-Ryan
GPRO: Strong uptrend!Seems like GPRO has upside left, closed above the last uptrend mode after expanding range.
Very bullish signals, also a quarterly and yearly EMA crossover today (66 and 253 EMA, Tim West's reccomended periods).
If already long, you can book profits at the targets on chart, 50% and 50%, 25% and 75%, up to you.
you can also trail the stop to protect profits at the mode: 62.25.
Uptrend should at least last until the 27th, but it might find resistance at 72.70, where a key hidden levels' earnings resistance line sits.
Props to Chimbot for spotting these wonderful intermediate term trades, he's been on fire. Do check his work out if you can, his idea is linked here.
Cheers,
Ivan.
green & now going for some glory to 20.33, if the market lets itWe may hit resistance & drag with market weakness
GPRO looking for a bottom.GoPro has been diving into the depths of the chart, doing price discovery and trying to find a bottom; but we can see the market has been buying these dips, as illustrated by the MACD and RSI bullish divs.
Taking the long trade here is really good in terms Risk/Reward but gambly in the sense that there's no bottom put in just yet.
A few Months Ago we predicted Price below 37.13 will bring 10sFor a trade, I will give a shot at 19-20 area.
#GoPro No-Go, IPO Below H2O | $GPRO #nasdaqDownside risk:
1 - Reciprocal ab = cd symmetry eyes sub-$5.00
2 - Predictive/Forecasting defines probable support at 23.99, limited upside to 36.97, bearish target at 7.28
OVERALL - BEARISH
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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TradingView - Alias: @4xForecaster
Never is Easy to forecast the top or bottom but now is not farThere is no doubt that price will test the descending resistance line and price very much consolidated at this very ugly support line $24.50/$25 it may push to $22/$19.50 area which has 45% POT while it could be the bottom base built-up before a serious bounce follows. There is a better strategy to initiate position that will pay off even if it goes down a little bit down. If u decide to take a long position, please do your HW and use stop loss that fits your risk tolerance. Real-time alerts www.2waytrading.com
GoPro Inc - GPRO - Daily - Turning up from oversoldAt some point, everything has a price. Maybe now that GoPro is HALF-OFF, it might entice someone to step up to the plate here. At these prices, maybe a car manufacturer will buy it so they can put one in every vehicle, standard issue. It will lower insurance rates and make our roads safer, especially when everyone knows that their driving habits will be recorded for "future use". I was involved in the concept, fundraising and startup of a Digital Video Storage company in 1994 which stored video recorded and encrypted onto ruggedized hard drives, perfectly designed for mobile environments. Our first market was city buses due to the extremely high accident rate and the high cost of insurance to run them and the high rate of fraud. Needless to say, I have a little bit of experience in the area and was still astonished at the valuation given to GoPro.
With all of that said, the technical condition of GoPro appears to be stabilizing. The move up from $28 shows some new buying and the high volume zone from $30.50-$27.07 has been breached, indicating to some of use technical watchers, that the sellers may be out of the way here.
Upside target to the 38 level over the next 1-3 months. Use a 2-3 range stop down near 25. The best place to enter is down around $29.30
$30.34 GPRO 10/20/2015 3:26PM EST
Bullish Shark Pattern Pattern : Bullish Shark .
Chart time interval : 1 hour
price: 29.08
should have a daily close above 31.9$ to confirm the uptrend
Stop Loss : 26.9$
Risk =2.18$
expected profit : 10$ with first target
and 15$ with second target .
Trade Idea #31 - $GPRO - Resurrection or Fatality?$GPRO has seen massive devaluation since August.
Entering with 1/3rd position. Trade as pending. Will update.
Technical Reasons
Wolfe Wave 5' Completion
Major Support
Major Dynamic Resistance pending
As a higher risk set-up, consider:
smaller position sizes
adding to winners
layering orders sub $30
Good Luck
How far will it fall?If u are discretionary trader who uses both technical and fundamentals you may need more time to see if bottom is close but if u are more of probability trader you may get better edge to use stat for your final entry. Last post on this security it was based on more of probability numbers and it worked but data may not be sufficient to predict how u may use both FPP as well as PND which will finally give u strong case to believe this will give a better chance to enter and exit in a short time. If price holds Last year's June bottom at and around $28.65 with a tight stop below $28, there is a good chance to make at least 15% from there. I prefer $28.16 which suggest a possible bounce to GM at and around $32.56 at the best. If you need real time alerts try us www.2waytrading.com
Multiple Bottom SupportMultiple bottom? Will this support hold? It has never broken this line since the first week of IPO. RSI and Stoch are in areas I would consider to enter long. MACD is concerning due to the signal line crossing just only beginning a descent bellow the moving average. The key for me is that support range. If there is a clear potential for a bottom, it is here. I would like to see a reversal pattern to be sure, but the broad market may prevent this.
