NVDA HAGIA SOPHIA!The Hagia Sophia pattern has now fully formed; it just needs the crack! and the Hook!
No matter what your vague hunches and feelings are about AI, the charts will always win.
You can't "buy the dip" unless you know when to "Sell the Rip"!
If you can't see this resistance area, I don't know what to tell you.
Everyone is bullish at the top of a bubbliotious market without exception!
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Trade ideas
NVDA at a Crossroads: Battle Between TrendlinesNVIDIA is currently consolidating in a tight range, locked between an ascending green trendline of support and a descending red resistance trendline. This setup signals that a breakout is near, with the next directional move likely to bring strong momentum.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Current Price: 176.74
Structure: Triangle squeeze between rising support and falling resistance.
The ascending trendline from June continues to provide strong bullish structure, but the red downtrend capping recent highs must be broken to regain upside momentum.
🛡️ Support Zones (with Stop-Loss):
🟢 170.85 | SL: 163.74 – 1H Support (Medium Risk)
🟢 144.78 | SL: 141.34 – 4H Support (Low Risk, strong base)
🔼 Resistance Levels:
🟥 Red downtrend line near 180 – Breakout above confirms renewed bullish impulse.
🧭 Outlook
Bullish Case: Hold above 170.85 and break the red downtrend → momentum push toward 185–190.
Bearish Case: Failure to hold 170.85 could trigger a deeper pullback into 163 or even 145.
Bias: Neutral to bullish as long as price stays above the green trendline.
🌍 Fundamental Insight
While NVDA remains a market leader in AI and GPUs, recent earnings have highlighted slowing revenue growth compared to prior explosive quarters. This has cooled investor enthusiasm, making technical levels even more important for short-term direction.
✅ Conclusion
NVDA is at a decision point: stuck between trendlines, awaiting a breakout. Bulls must defend 170.85 while bears eye resistance around 180. A resolution here could set the tone for the coming weeks.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
NVDA Trying to Find a Floor – Sept 18 Trade Levels to Watch Here’s my take on Nvidia heading into Wednesday’s session, based on the 1-hour chart and current GEX data.
1️⃣ Price Action & Market Structure
* Trend check: NVDA is still in a short-term downtrend after last week’s selloff, but buyers stepped in near $168–170, which lines up with prior volume support.
* Key level: $172.5 is a near-term pivot. Price is testing it now; a sustained push above could start a relief bounce toward $175–177.
* Resistance overhead: The descending trendline around $174.8–175 is the first real test for bulls. Above that, $178.5 and $182.5 are next supply zones.
2️⃣ GEX (Options Flow) Read
* Call/put balance: Calls only about 25% of flow—puts still dominate, showing cautious sentiment.
* Put walls: Big put interest at $170 and $165 creates a “magnet” if $172.5 fails.
* Call side: Not much until $177.5 and $182.5, where gamma clusters could help a squeeze if buyers surprise.
3️⃣ Trading Thoughts
* Conservative long scalp: If NVDA closes an hourly candle above $172.5–174, a pop toward $177–178.5 is on the table. Tight stop under $170.
* Short setup: If price rejects $172.5 and slips back below $170, expect a quick test of $167.5, maybe $165 on momentum.
4️⃣ Option Angle
* Directional play: Debit spreads (e.g., $175/$180 calls) are fine for a bounce if price confirms over $174.
* Income angle: Credit spreads selling $165 puts or $180 calls fit a range-bound view if you expect more chop.
5️⃣ My View
Nvidia is oversold enough to bounce, but the overall tape is still heavy. I’ll wait for an hourly close over $174 to trust the long side. Otherwise, any fade below $170 keeps the short trend alive.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational discussion only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NVDA: A Stoic Approach to a Losing Trade (The Second Breath)As we just discussed, a loss is not a failure; it's information.
This trade on NVDA is a perfect, real-time application of that Stoic and Douglas-inspired philosophy. The first attempt was stopped out for a small "paper cut" loss. The Stoics teach us to focus only on what we can control. We couldn't control the price hitting our first stop, but we can absolutely control our reaction.
Our reaction is not one of frustration, but of calm acceptance. We take the information the market gave us, remain balanced, and execute the next step of our plan.
The New Trade Plan
This second attempt is an action taken with more wisdom and an even better potential reward.
Style: Long / Re-Entry
Entry: Limit Order at $167.75
Stop Loss: A tight, strategically placed stop at $162.25 (3.28% risk)
Target: $192.50
Risk/Reward Ratio: Approximately 1 : 4.5
The #limitlessTrader's Mindset
The first trade was simply an exhale. This second trade is the next breath, taken with more clarity and from a place of balance. This is the process.
Just shine.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Is Nvidia preparing for a retracement?On July 23rd I posted a chart suggesting that Nvidia had topped (at my green T1). Since then Nvidia has stalled at my T1 range for the past 2 months.
Question remains, will Nvidia retrance from here as anticipated? What do you think, I'd like to hear from you, to gauge sentiment.
May the trends be witht you.
Nvidia plummets ~3% afterhours! Buy the dip or sell the rally?Nvidia delivered another strong quarter, beating expectations on both revenue and EPS. However, shares dropped after hours to around $175, as data centre revenue narrowly missed forecasts and China sales remained absent due to regulatory uncertainty.
Technically, if NVDA breaks below $175, bears may target the $170 double bottom support in a dead-cat-bounce fashion, with a risk of further downside if that level fails. However, if the stock holds above $179 and reclaims $185, bulls could see a rally toward $193 and potentially $220 in the medium term, which could still materialise after a short-term decline toward $170.
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NVDA: Testing Key Support After Sharp Drop –Swing & Scalp Sep 171-Hour Chart Technical View
Nvidia’s 1-hour chart shows clear short-term weakness. After failing near $182.5, price has been trending down and now hovers around $175.15. MACD remains deep in negative territory and Stoch RSI is oversold, hinting at potential for a short-term bounce but no confirmed reversal yet.
* Immediate Support: $172.5 (high-volume node and HVL 09/19)
* Secondary Support: $170 and $166.5
* Resistance: $177.7 and $182.5 are key overhead levels for any rebound
Price is trading under both 9 and 21 EMA, confirming a short-term bearish structure until a clean reclaim above $177.7.
GEX & Options Flow
Options positioning highlights mixed sentiment with cautious call interest:
* Call Walls: $177.5 (2nd call wall), $182.5 (highest positive NET GEX / gamma resistance), and $185.
* Put Walls: $170 and $165 (significant downside hedges).
* GEX Bias: Around 23.5% calls with IVR at 5.7 (IVx ~40.8). This relatively low IVR shows option premiums are moderate despite the pullback.
Dealers may support the $172.5 area, but below that, gamma exposure flips bearish and accelerates downside risk.
Trade Thoughts & Suggestions
* Swing Idea: Aggressive buyers can nibble near $172.5 with a tight stop below $170, aiming for a relief bounce to $177.7–$182.5.
* Scalp Idea: Short bounces into $177.7 resistance if momentum stays weak, or scalp quick long entries off a confirmed double-bottom near $172.5.
* Bearish Scenario: A decisive break under $170 could accelerate selling toward $166.5.
Quick Take
NVDA is in a corrective phase. For Sept 17, all eyes are on $172.5. Holding that level can spark an oversold bounce; losing it could open the door to deeper downside.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NVDASuccess in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time. Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
NVIDIA Analysis: Short-Term Gains & Long-Term PotentialShort-Term Analysis (1-2 weeks):
Price Action: The current price is near the lower boundary of the descending channel, with the support level around $174.80. This could act as a good entry point for a potential rebound.
Technical Insights: The chart shows a descending channel, indicating that if the price reaches the lower boundary, there's a likelihood of a short-term reversal.
Price Target: In the short term, the first target would be around $180, which is near the upper resistance of the channel. If broken, a further move toward $185 could be possible.
Stop Loss: If the support at $174.80 breaks, the stop loss could be set at $170.
Long-Term Analysis (1-3 months):
Price Action: If the price manages to break out of the descending channel, a continued bullish trend would likely push the price toward $190. This is a strong resistance level.
Technical Insights: A breakout from the descending channel would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. In that case, the price might reach higher levels above $190.
Price Target: In the long run, if the price breaks above the channel, the next target could be $200.
Stop Loss: In case the price drops below $170 in the long term, the bearish trend would likely continue, with a stop loss set at $160.
Summary:
Short-Term: Support at $174.80, with a price target of $180 and a stop loss at $170.
Long-Term: Bullish target at $190-$200, with a stop loss at $160.
Always consider fundamental news that could significantly impact price movements.
What Is Beta in Stocks and How May It BeUsed?What Does Beta Mean in Stocks, and How May It Be Used in Risk Management?
Beta is a key measure of how a stock moves relative to the market, helping traders assess risk exposure and price volatility. Understanding this indicator can help traders analyse potential price swings and portfolio stability. This article explores how beta works, its implications, and how it may be used in risk analysis.
What Is Beta in Stocks and How Does It Affect Risk?
Beta is a statistical measure that quantifies how a stock’s price fluctuates relative to the broader market. It helps traders analyse systematic risk—the kind that affects most stocks at the same time, such as economic downturns or interest rate changes. The number itself comes from regression analysis, which compares a stock’s potential returns to a benchmark index like the FTSE 100 or S&P 500.
A beta of 1.0 indicates that a share generally tracks the movements of its benchmark index. If the index gains 5%, a stock with a value of 1.0 is likely to rise by about the same amount. A beta above 1 signals greater volatility—company shares with a beta of 1.8 may rise 9% when the market gains 5%, but they also tend to fall more sharply during downturns. A value below 1 suggests lower volatility, with the asset moving less than the broader index.
Interpreting Beta Values
Now, we will examine beta values in detail.
High Beta Stocks (>1.0)
These stocks react strongly to market changes. High beta is common in technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, where investor sentiment drives price movements. While they offer the potential for higher returns, they also come with increased price swings.
Low Beta Stocks (<1.0 but >0)
Lower beta stocks experience smaller movements compared to an index. A value of 0.6, for example, suggests it might rise 3% if the market gains 5%. Sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples often have these types of stocks, as demand for their products tends to remain stable, except in situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Negative Beta Stocks (<0)
Some assets, such as gold mining company shares, have negative beta values, meaning they move in the opposite direction of the broader market. These assets can act as a hedge when markets decline, though a negative value is relatively rare.
While the beta of a stock provides insights into its volatility, it doesn’t account for company-specific risks or broader economic shifts. Investors often combine this form of analysis with fundamental and technical factors to build a more complete view of exposure.
How Traders Use Beta in Measuring Risk
Rather than examining price movements in isolation, traders use beta to evaluate how a stock reacts to broader trends. This helps them decide whether it aligns with their risk tolerance and market outlook.
Analysing Systematic Risk
Since beta measures sensitivity to the market, it’s useful for assessing systematic risk—the kind of risk that can’t be eliminated through diversification. A stock with a high beta will likely experience sharp swings during broader turbulence, making it appealing for those looking to capitalise on potential momentum but at the cost of greater volatility. In contrast, low-beta shares may hold up better in downturns but won’t rally as aggressively in bull markets.
Beta in Portfolio Construction
Investors often consider this metric when balancing a portfolio’s overall risk level. A portfolio heavily weighted in high-beta company shares can be more volatile, while one with low-beta stocks may offer less volatile potential returns. Some investors focus on diversified beta investing, combining high- and low-beta assets to adjust their exposure depending on overall conditions.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Beta is also a key component of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which estimates a stock’s expected return based on its risk level. CAPM considers the relationship between beta and market returns, helping to compare potential opportunities. If the asset is more volatile than an index but offers lower-than-expected rewards, it may not justify the added volatility.
The Limitations of Beta
Beta is a useful tool for assessing how a stock moves relative to an index, but it has shortcomings. Since it’s based on historical price data, it doesn’t always reflect how the asset will behave in the future. It’s important to be aware of its limitations when using it for risk assessment.
1. It Changes Over Time
Beta in a stock is not a fixed number. Company risk profiles can shift due to short-term developments, industry changes, or economic cycles, and impact a stock’s beta, meaning a stock with a value of 1.5 today might move closer to 1.0 over time as conditions evolve.
2. It Doesn’t Account for Company-Specific Risk
Beta measures systematic risk, meaning it doesn’t factor in aspects specific to a company, such as management changes, earnings surprises, or regulatory issues. Two stocks can have the same beta but react very differently to news.
3. High Beta Doesn’t Always Mean Greater Potential Returns
A stock with a beta of 2.0 might move twice as much as the market, but that doesn’t mean it will generate higher potential returns. If the asset consistently underperforms, its added volatility becomes a liability rather than an advantage.
4. Different Market Conditions Affect Reliability
Beta tends to be more stable in normal market conditions but can break down during extreme events, such as financial crises or sudden liquidity shocks. In times of panic, correlations between assets often increase, making the metric less useful for risk analysis.
Practical Examples of Beta in Action
Looking at beta in real-world scenarios helps illustrate how different stocks react. Two well-known examples are NVIDIA (NVDA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which have very different values.
NVIDIA (NVDA) – 1.76
According to Yahoo Finance, NVIDIA has a 5-year monthly beta of 1.76. This means its price is about 76% more volatile than the S&P 500. If the index gains 10%, NVIDIA’s stock could rise around 17.6%. However, in a downturn, it could fall by a similar magnitude. The tech sector is highly sensitive to market sentiment, innovation cycles, and economic conditions, making high-beta assets like NVIDIA riskier but also capable of higher potential returns.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – 0.46
Johnson & Johnson has a 5-year monthly beta of 0.46 (source: Yahoo Finance), meaning it moves about 54% less than the market. If the index rises or falls 10%, JNJ stock might move by 4.6%. The lower value reflects the so-called stability of the healthcare industry, where consistent demand for products like medical devices and pharmaceuticals tends to lead to more resilient stock performance.
Key Takeaways
Those willing to take on more risk for higher potential returns often favour high-beta stocks like NVIDIA, while those seeking less volatility may prefer low-beta companies such as Johnson & Johnson. However, the measure ignores company-specific risks or specific short-term outperformance factors (e.g. positive earnings or product releases), and it is typically calculated over a long timeframe—5 years in this instance.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the beta definition and how it applies may help traders and investors assess a stock’s volatility. Whether they are focused on high-beta growth stocks or lower-volatility options, this metric may help traders refine their strategy. However, while it may provide useful insights, it should be used alongside other analysis methods for a well-rounded approach.
FAQ
What Does Beta Mean in Stocks?
The beta in stocks meaning refers to a measure of how much a stock moves relative to the broader market. A beta of 1.0 means it generally follows market movements, while a beta above or below 1 indicates higher or lower volatility, respectively.
What Are High Beta Stocks?
High-beta stocks have a beta greater than 1, meaning they tend to move more than the overall market. These assets often belong to technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, where price swings are more pronounced.
What Does a Portfolio Beta Measure?
Portfolio beta calculates the overall volatility of a portfolio relative to an index. It’s determined by weighting each stock’s beta based on its proportion in the portfolio. A portfolio with a value above 1 is more volatile than the market, while one below 1 is less volatile.
What Does a Stock With a Beta of 1.5 Indicate?
A stock with a beta of 1.5 is 50% more volatile than the market. If the index rises 5%, shares might increase by 7.5%, but it could also fall more sharply in downturns.
What Is β?
The symbol β is a Greek letter signifying beta. The beta meaning in finance refers to a stock’s expected performance relative to an index.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16NVDA Coiling Under the 180 Gamma Wall — Break or Fade Day? 🚦
Market Structure (1H)
* Price rebounded from 172.5 and is compressing under a descending trendline drawn from ~180s.
* Momentum is turning up (MACD curling), but Stoch RSI is hot, so first touches into resistance can reject.
* Intraday balance likely between 172.5 ↔ 180 unless we get a clean break.
Key Levels
Resistance: 177.3–177.8 (intraday ceiling), 178.6, 180 (major wall), 182.5 (next wall), 185.
Support: 175.0, 172.5 (big pivot), 170.0, 167.5 (put wall), 165, 160.
GEX Read (Sep 16 session)
* Highest positive NETGEX / Call resistance: 180 (primary gamma wall).
* Additional call wall: 182.5.
* Put walls: 167.5 and 165.
* HVL / magnet: around 172.5.
* IVR ~3–4, IVx ~39 → options relatively cheap vs own history (careful with overtrading, but debit spreads price well).
* Participation skew light on calls (~25–26%): flow is neutral to slightly cautious.
Implication: Dealers likely keep NVDA pinned 172.5–180 unless flow shifts.
* Above 180: hedging can push to 182–182.5 → 185.
* Below 172.5: opens 170 → 167.5 (put wall magnet).
Trade Setups (use one, not all)
1) Bullish Breakout
* Trigger: 1H/15m close > 177.8 and hold above trendline; momentum stays positive.
* Entry: 178.0–178.2 on hold/retest.
* Targets: 179.8 → 180; runners 182–182.5.
* Invalidation/Stop: below 176.8 (back inside range).
* Options (conservative): 180/182.5 call debit spread (same-week). Take partial near 180; leave a runner only if 180 converts to support.
2) Fade the Wall
* Trigger: Spike into 179.8–180.2 and stall (lower TF rejection / bearish wick).
* Entry: scale in on the rejection.
* Targets: 177.5 → 175.5.
* Invalidation/Stop: above 181.2.
* Options: 180P or 177.5/175 put debit spread (same-week). Quick take-profits into 177–175.
3) Breakdown From Pivot
* Trigger: Clean 1H break < 172.5 with a retest that fails.
* Entry: 172.2–172.4 on failed retest.
* Targets: 170.5 → 167.8 (≈ put wall 167.5).
* Invalidation/Stop: back above 173.3.
* Options: 172.5/170 put debit spread, leave a runner toward 167.5 only if momentum accelerates.
Scalper’s Notes
* First test of 177.8–178.6 likely reacts. If buyers absorb, flip to breakout bias.
* If we gap near 175–176, watch for a quick liquidity sweep toward 172.5 → bounce back into range.
* VWAP/EMA retests that hold above 177.8 favor a push to 180; fails below 175 lean back to 172.5.
Swing Context (1–3 days)
* Still a lower-highs channel until 180/182.5 is reclaimed.
* Reclaim and hold ≥180 turns the path toward 185 this week.
* Lose 172.5 on a daily close and the door reopens to 170 → 167.5.
Risk & Management
* Keep risk tight at the edges; don’t chase inside the 175–177 chop.
* For spreads, size so a full debit loss is acceptable; scale out at first target.
* If IV expands into the move, take profits faster on long options.
This analysis is for education only, not financial advice. Manage risk and trade your plan.
NVDA ShortThe broader market structure on NVDA remains range-bound but with a slight bearish tilt after the recent Break of Structure (BOS) at 180.27, which confirmed sellers pushing price lower from the recent swing high. This BOS indicates short-term momentum favoring the downside, with price unable to reclaim the highs.
Looking at supply and demand, the most recent supply zone near 178–179 caused a sharp reaction and rejection, showing that sellers stepped in with strength. The nearest demand sits at 175–174.5, where buyers previously initiated a strong impulse that led to the most recent rally, making it a valid level to watch for a bounce. Deeper demand exists near 172, which aligns with a 50% retracement level and previously acted as the base of a major move higher.
Price action within the marked region shows that NVDA is currently pulling back from supply, with sellers pushing price lower and momentum slowing on the way down. The most likely next step is a retest of the 175 demand zone. If price reacts bullishly here with strong candles, we could see a bounce back toward 177–178. However, if demand fails to hold and we break below 174.50, continuation toward 172 becomes likely as price seeks deeper liquidity.
The trade bias is currently bearish until we see a strong bullish reaction from demand. Invalidation for shorts would be a clean reclaim and close above 178.50, which would shift structure back toward the upside and likely target 180 again. Momentum currently favors sellers, given the BOS and recent rejection from supply, and candles show lower wicks are minimal—indicating little absorption from buyers yet.
Tech giants ignite the market: NVIDIA — $4.3T, Oracle +40%...As of September 2025, #NVIDIA’s market capitalization is estimated at about $4.313 trillion, making #NVIDIA the most valuable publicly traded company in the world by market cap.
Across big tech, the backdrop has turned decisively positive: #Oracle shares have surged 40% on accelerating cloud revenue and AI contracts; #Apple unveiled a new device lineup led by iPhone 17; and #Google continues to climb on progress in AI tools, ad tech, and cloud services. Together, these catalysts are lifting demand for AI infrastructure and ecosystem services, reinforcing network effects between hardware vendors, platforms, and developers.
Key growth drivers for IT giants in 2025:
#Oracle — faster cloud revenue, major AI contracts, and expanded data-center infrastructure sparked a sharp 40% jump in the stock.
#Apple — the launch of iPhone 17 and an updated device lineup strengthens ecosystem cash flows, driving upgrade cycles and service monetization and supporting a positive re-rating of the shares.
#Google — gains in advertising and cloud alongside the rollout of generative AI, improvements in search and commerce products, and cost optimization for inference.
#NVIDIA — new chips and architectures (including Blackwell) cement leadership in AI compute, while data-center expansion and the MLOps stack support a robust order backlog.
Institutional demand — inflows into AI-themed funds and ETFs, plus strategic partnerships by corporations and governments, are sustaining premium sector valuations and fueling a broadening cycle of spend on AI infrastructure, devices, and platform services.
According to FreshForex, a prolonged AI demand cycle and scaling potential create conditions for further share-price appreciation. The parallel surge in #Oracle , product updates from #Apple , and #Google’s rally keep the spotlight on the sector and bolster expectations for AI-driven earnings — from chips to devices and cloud — while #NVIDIA’s lead in next-gen architectures secures its role as a key beneficiary of the trend.
MARKING LEVELS TO( supply/ demand = trending) BULLISH MARKETS1.Find trend = current market is trending so i MARKed key LEVELS in the
(wkly,dly,1HR,15MIN )
I found the trend in the 15 minute timeframe, Soley focused on that time frame when looking at the next steps
2. wait for a bos {break of structure} in same direction of the trend= looked for a New LL (lower low) to be made= No candle close {real body}
3. waited till price to come to my demand zone
4. entered trade and set my tp to supply zone !
I took a step back to find out in the higher timeframes there was a KEy level of
Resistance so i dragged my tp right to the resistance. Looking to ride the trend.
i need to find a risk to reward
I need to stay patient
I need to stay disciplined
The NVDA Trade: The Tactical Case for an NVDA RetracementNVIDIA's price has been confined within a well-defined ascending channel, with its upward trajectory governed by a diagonal support trendline and its upside limited by a confluence of resistance. The stock's recent attempts to advance have been definitively rejected by this overhead resistance zone, signaling a lack of sufficient buying pressure at current price levels.
The Trading Hypothesis
The primary thesis is that the price will re-engage with and test the strength of the lower diagonal support trendline one final time. The failure to decisively break the dual overhead resistance marks a key moment, suggesting that a retracement is necessary to reset market conditions and establish a more stable foundation for a future rally.
This projected move involves a retracement back to the lower boundary of the existing channel. The price action here will be critical. Should this diagonal support fail to hold—a high-probability scenario given the recent rejections at resistance—it would trigger a breakdown of the prevailing uptrend.
This breakdown would likely initiate a more substantial corrective wave, driving the price toward the next major horizontal support level. This lower support line, identified on the chart, represents a key demand zone where new long-term buyers may step in, providing the necessary liquidity to halt the decline and potentially form a new base.
Entry Point: The Red Arrow
The red arrow on the chart signifies the optimal entry point for initiating a short position.
Exit Point: The Green Arrow
The green arrow marks the strategic exit point for the short position. This level is defined by the next major horizontal support line
NVDA - Price ProjectionNVDA made a double top on 28/08/2025, since been making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Althought its still just above SMA50. I see some downside in NVDA before a move up.
The question is where would I be a buyer?
I would inch in to buy for a swing trade at three levels:
- my first buy would be at around 157. This is at a long term trendline that goes back to Mar 2024
- my second buy would be 152.74. This a support level from previous double top
- my third buy would be between 147 and 148. This is a strong level and a confluence of two levels. There is gap fill at 147.90 and Fib retracement level of 38.2% at 147.55
Alternatively, my thesis will be invalid if NVDA close above 184.
NVDA ShortThe broader market structure on NVDA remains bearish, with price putting in lower highs since failing to hold above $180.27. The recent Change of Character (CHoCH) around $164.08 marked a significant shift to bullish momentum, but the market failed to create a clean higher high above $180, leaving the larger bearish structure intact. This failure to break structure to the upside suggests we may be seeing distribution forming at the current levels.
Supply is sitting just above current price in the $178–179 range, where price previously rejected sharply and formed a consolidation top. This is a strong supply zone since sellers stepped in aggressively the last time price was here. Below, there is a well-defined demand zone between $167–164, where buyers stepped in with strength and caused a sharp rally. However, the rally lost steam as it approached supply, which indicates that demand may not be strong enough to absorb another large selloff.
Price action in the marked region is consolidating just below supply, showing choppy, sideways behavior. This is often a sign of absorption before a potential breakdown. If price rejects this supply zone and breaks below intraday support, we could see a move down toward $168, and possibly deeper into the lower demand zone.
The current trade bias is bearish, with an expectation of continuation to the downside after supply rejection. A sustained move and close above $180.50 would invalidate this view and signal potential continuation higher. Momentum is favoring sellers, as price has struggled to break above resistance despite multiple attempts, and wicks on the top side indicate rejection.