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two scenarios for NQ on October I currently have two scenarios for NASDAQ, and both are bearish. Scenario 1: The downtrend has already started. If we see a pullback around the 0.5 Fibonacci level, I’ll look to short again and keep stacking sell positions Scenario 2: NASDAQ might retest the previous high — the one where the sharp drop started — move sideways for a while, and then start another leg down. P.S. Success depends on proper risk management. #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100
FPMARKETS:US100Short
by Wall_StreetWolf
4
Sell in NasdaqUpdated Nasdaq Market Analysis (as of October 28, 2025 – Current Price: 25,809) Current Price: Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at 25,809
Intraday Change: Up +1,605 points (+6.63%) from prior close (~24,204)
Context: This marks an explosive breakout, shattering all-time highs with the strongest single-day surge in over a year. The move is driven by blowout earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META), reigniting AI frenzy, alongside dovish Fed signals and U.S.-China trade thaw rumors. Despite the euphoria, this is a textbook “sell the news” top — and 25,809 is an ideal short entry. Here’s why: Why It’s a Strong Sell at 25,809 1. Extreme Overbought Conditions (Technical Exhaustion) • RSI (14-day): 92+ → Highest since March 2000 (dot-com peak).
Anything above 80 is extreme; 90+ is a screaming reversal signal.
 • Distance from 200-day MA: Now +22% above — the most extended in 25 years. • Bollinger Bands: Price 3+ standard deviations above the 20-day mean — a classic “blow-off top” pattern. • Volume Spike + Distribution: Today’s volume is 2.5x average, but declining stocks outnumber advancers 1.8:1 beneath the surface — institutional selling into strength. Verdict: This is not sustainable momentum — it’s FOMO capitulation. 2. Valuations at Absurd Levels Metric Current Historical Avg Implication Nasdaq Forward P/E 42.1x 25x Priced for perfection Price-to-Sales (NDX) 9.8x 4.5x AI hype detached from revenue Nvidia P/E 78x FY26 35x (growth stocks) One miss = 30% drop Even if AI growth continues, the market has already priced in 5+ years of flawless execution. 3. Earnings “Sell the News” Setup • Nvidia: Beat estimates by 12%, but guidance only in-line — no upside surprise. • Microsoft/Azure: Growth slowed from 33% → 29% YoY — first deceleration in 2 years. • Options Flow: Massive call unwinds post-earnings → smart money taking profits. History: 8 of the last 10 times Nasdaq surged >5% in a day on earnings, it corrected 7–15% within 2 weeks. 4. Macro & Event Risks Clustering Event Date Risk U.S. Elections Nov 5 Policy uncertainty (tariffs, regulation) Fed Meeting Oct 29–30 Dovish cut already priced in — hawkish surprise risk CPI (Oct) Nov 13 Sticky inflation → rate cut delay China Stimulus Fade Q4 Early 2025 growth slowdown Risk-on sentiment is at peak — any disappointment triggers rotation out of tech. 5. Sentiment & Positioning Extremes • CFTC Data: Speculative net longs at all-time highs. • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +48% (top 5% historically). • X (Twitter) Sentiment: “Nasdaq to 30,000” trending — contrarian sell signal. Everyone is in → No one left to buy. Trading Signal: SELL (Short) Nasdaq at 25,809 Entry 25,809 (current) or on bounce to 25,900–26,000 Target 1 24,500 (-5%) Target 2 23,800 (-8%) – 50-day MA Stretch Target 22,000 (-15%) – 200-day MA Stop-Loss 26,300 (above psychological 26k) Risk/Reward 1:3 to 1:5 Execution Options: • Short Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) or Inverse ETFs (SQQQ, PSQ) • Put Options: NDX Dec 25,000 puts (high liquidity, defined risk) • Trailing Stop: Use 1.5% ATR (~400 pts) or previous day’s low Why Now Is the Perfect Sell • Parabolic move complete — check • Earnings catalyst exhausted — check • Valuations unsustainable — check • Everyone bullish — check • Major events ahead — check This is the top of the AI bubble Phase 1.
The next 5–10% down will be fast and violent — sell strength, don’t chase. Final Note: Long-term, AI and tech remain dominant. But 25,809 is a generational shorting opportunity. Lock in gains, raise cash, and prepare to buy the dip at 22,000–23,000. Position sizing: Max 2–3% risk per trade. Use stops religiously.
Monitor: Fed statement (Oct 30), U.S. election polls, China PMI (Oct 31).
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by MziniFX
2
NAS100 Bearish Setup | Momentum Weakness Detected before FOMCNAS100 is showing early signs of a potential reversal after a strong bullish rally. Price action has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI — with price making higher highs while RSI prints lower highs — signaling fading momentum among buyers. Volume has also declined during the recent upswing, suggesting weak participation in the continuation move and potential exhaustion near the recent top. A sell setup is active with the stop loss marked in red above the previous high to protect against false breakouts, while the target zone highlighted in green aligns with the next structural support and volume-based demand area. A decisive close below near-term support would confirm bearish intent and open the path toward the target zone. Traders should monitor momentum indicators for confirmation of sustained weakness before continuation.
FX:NAS100Short
by coolbouy
USNAS100 Extends Rally to New All-Time Highs?USNAS100 | Bullish Continuation Toward New Highs The index recorded a new all-time high (ATH) and has already stabilized above it, supporting further bullish momentum toward 25,400 → 25,550. The main driver behind the move remains strong corporate earnings. However, to confirm a bearish reversal, the price must close a 1H candle below 25,170, which would expose 25,100 → 25,010. A sustained break below those levels could extend the decline toward 24,850. Pivot Line: 25,230 Resistance: 25,400 – 25,550 Support: 25,100 – 25,010 – 24,860
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
2
US 100 Index – Yesterday Saw New Record Highs, What Next?Fresh optimism regarding the potential for a US-China trade deal saw the US 100 rise to a new record high of 25889 early this morning, a daily gain of 2% and an unbelievable rise of 58% from its April 6th low at 16324 when trade tensions were at their height. Now, across the rest of this week, US 100 traders may be focused on several key events to decide the next directional moves for the index. These are, the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, earnings from five of the Magnificent Seven corporates, and the face-to-face meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi. Let’s briefly discuss each one. On Wednesday at 1800 GMT the Fed are fully expected to cut interest rates 25bps (0.25%) when they release the outcome from their 2-day policy meeting (FOMC). What is less certain is what comes next. Markets are still pricing in a high probability of another 25bps cut at the Fed’s next meeting in December, however any indication that this may not be a sure thing could lead to a more negative outcome for the US 100. The comments made by Fed Chairman Powell in the press conference, which starts at 1830 GMT, could be crucial in this regard. Once the Fed press conference ends on Wednesday, traders may be absorbed by the release of earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, which are followed by the updates from Amazon and Apple after the market close on Thursday. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that worries about an AI bubble negatively impacted the US 100, and so the focus in these results could be on AI spending, future revenue growth and costs. The final event is the face-to-face meeting between President’s Trump and Xi which takes place in South Korea on Thursday, the first in 6 years. Current expectations are for the heads of the world’s two biggest economies to agree a series of deals on rare earth metals, soybeans, shipping levies and export controls. Whether these agreements match up to expectations could be pivotal to the direction of the US 100 into the weekend. Technical Update: Mind The Gaps! CFD price activity typically forms in relatively smooth patterns, rising in uptrends or falling in downtrends. While brief corrections may occur, they’re often limited in scope and duration before the prevailing trend resumes, unless a shift in sentiment triggers a directional reversal. Occasionally, within an orderly price advance or decline, acceleration phases emerge, which can result in gaps in price activity. These gaps occur when a CFD closes one session and then opens higher in an uptrend or lower in a downtrend the next day, reflecting a surge in trader interest in the direction of the prevailing trend. Within technical analysis, there are three types of price gaps, each offering insight into trader sentiment and directional risk. Below is a brief overview of each. Breakaway Gap: Typically seen at the start of a new trend, this gap reflects strong trader conviction, buyers are willing to pay higher prices at the open in an uptrend, or sellers accept lower prices in a downtrend. It can often be seen to complete a reversal pattern and signals a possible shift in sentiment. Continuation Gap: Forming within an established trend, this gap can confirm ongoing sentiment, buyers continue to pay higher prices in an uptrend, or sellers accept lower prices in a downtrend. It reinforces confidence in the prevailing move. Exhaustion Gap: Found in mature trends, this gap reflects late-stage trader entry at already overextended levels, reflecting poor timing, as most of the move has already occurred. It may signal panic buying or selling, with positioning then heavily skewed in the direction of the prevailing trend. When positioning becomes overly one-sided, with no buyers left in an uptrend or sellers in a downtrend, price can be most vulnerable to a sentiment reversal, often triggering corrective moves. US 100 Index: Watching the Gaps The eagle-eyed among you will have noticed that the charts used to illustrate gap concepts above feature the activity of the US 100 Index, which since the April 7th low, is possibly a good example of these gaps in price action. The latest gap, formed between last Friday’s close and Monday’s open, is labelled as both a possible continuation and exhaustion gap, as it’s unclear at present what this move currently represents. It could signal a continuation of the uptrend from the April lows, or mark an exhaustion point, raising the risk of a sentiment reversal. Monitoring future price action may help determine whether the latest gap reflects continuation of the uptrend or signals exhaustion, suggesting the risk of price weakness. If Latest Activity Proves to be a Continuation Gap If the gap from Friday’s 25374 close is a continuation gap, it could signal a further phase of price strength. This would imply that if price action holds above 23474, upside momentum may still be evident. If the US 100 Index holds above support at 25374 it may then go on to challenge the next resistance at 25937, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension. A break above this level might even open the path toward 26393, which is the 100% extension. If Latest Activity Proves to be an Exhaustion Gap If the latest gap activity reflects exhaustion, with positioning skewed too far to the long side, it may lead to a phase of price weakness following the recent advance. A closing break below 25374 could build on these themes and even suggest possibilities of a more extended phase of price weakness. A move below 25374 could signal fading buying support, suggesting a shift toward lower levels. If evident, downside risks may extend to 25079, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, potentially even toward 24668, a level marking the 61.8% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
1
USNAS100 | Retest Phase Before Next Bullish LegUSNAS100 – MARKET OVERVIEW | Bullish Bias With Possible Retest 🇺🇸 The NASDAQ 100 recorded a new all-time high, maintaining strong bullish pressure, especially while trading above 25,890. Currently, the price appears to be entering a short-term retest phase toward 25,700 before resuming its upward momentum. A confirmed 1H candle close above 25,890 will reinforce the bullish continuation, targeting 26,040 → 26,200. However, if the index trades below 25,890, a technical correction toward 25,700 is likely. To confirm a bearish trend, the price must stabilize below 25,660, opening the path toward 25,340. Key Technical Levels Pivot Line: 25,890 Support: 25,700 · 25,340 Resistance: 26,040 · 26,200 Outlook: NASDAQ remains bullish above 25,890, but expect short-term volatility near record highs. A daily close above 26,040 would signal renewed strength, while sustained trading below 25,660 could trigger a deeper correction phase.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
USNAS100 Consolidation Growth pattern The USNAS100 hit a new record high on Monday, driven by growing expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts that continue to boost risk appetite. Optimism surrounding a potential U.S.–China trade agreement also supported sentiment at the start of a week dominated by major tech earnings. Technically, the Wall Street index extended its bullish run, confirming strong upward momentum. However, a price test of near-term support could occur before the next leg higher. If the price holds and reacts positively at support, it could open the path toward the next resistance level at 26,400. You my find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by MrMartin_11
5
NAS100Trading forex based on strong fundamentals is beneficial because it allows investors to make informed decisions grounded in real economic data rather than speculation. By analyzing key indicators like interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, employment, and geopolitical stability, a trader can anticipate currency movements driven by macroeconomic forces. This approach helps identify long-term trends and reduces emotional or impulsive trading, offering more consistent and sustainable profits. In essence, good fundamentals turn forex trading from a gamble into a strategic investment rooted in economic reality.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by HavalMamar
US100: Nasdaq Faces Selling Pressure Below 25,200US100: Nasdaq Faces Selling Pressure Below 25,200 US100 faced strong resistance around the 25,190–25,200 zone, where price was rejected again after a sharp bullish move. This area continues to act as a major supply zone, limiting further upside potential for now. If the bearish momentum continues, the index could correct lower toward the 24,840 level as the first target. A deeper pullback could extend to 24,610, and eventually toward the 24,350 support zone. A clean break above this resistance would invalidate the bearish outlook and open the way for new highs. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by KlejdiCuni
12
NO CLEAR BIAS: AWAITING PRICE ACTION SIGNALS TO DECIDESTUDY THE POINTS MADE ON THE H1 ALONGSIDE WHAT THE DAILY CHART INDICATES DISCLAIMER: The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits. All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute a recommendation to buy/sell. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea. If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by CEO_SKAI_KAPITAL_PTY_LTD
2
USNAS100 ForecastThe US100 chart shows strong bullish momentum, breaking above key resistance levels. Price is expected to retrace slightly toward the 25,750–25,500 support zone before resuming its upward move toward the 26,400–26,500 target area. Overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows formation. "Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Pintu_sahu01
Pullback ideaNasdaq is at the trendline, channel and RSI resistances at the moment. We have 1D divergence on RSI, but no 4h divergence yet. Good pullbacks usually start with 4h divergence on NAS100 / 2h divergence on NDX, so it will probably go a little higher. If it's going to form an ending diagonal, one more small pullback and one more wave up should appear, which will produce 4h divergence. 2.618 fib level from August 13 peak to low is at 25600 on NAS100 and at 25590 on NDX - maybe it will reach it, maybe not.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Supergalactic
NasdaqHello traders! Last Friday, we had a major selloff in the 25,000 region, which quickly sent the Nasdaq crashing by more than 4% in just a few hours. In technical analysis, 24,000 is a price that has been broken previously and is now being tested as weekly support. If we expand this movement, we project a target price of 26,000, continuing the upward movement. The technology sector remains promising with advances in artificial intelligence, and we have no news of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Happy trading!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by caueblanes
NAS100 – Price Enters Uncharted TerritoryZone 1: New All-Time High This zone marks where the US session closed yesterday, establishing a new all-time high. Price has never traded this high before, putting the market in uncharted territory. Momentum remains strong, but with no historical structure above, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion or potential profit-taking as price explores this fresh high ground. A clean break and hold above the zone would confirm continued bullish control, while early rejection could spark a minor pullback. Zone 2: Asia Session Open Price opened around this level during Monday’s Asia session before accelerating sharply higher. The strong reaction from this area confirms it as an intraday demand zone and the first meaningful layer of support if price retraces. Should the market revisit this level today, traders will be watching closely for renewed buying pressure to defend the short-term uptrend. Zone 3: Previous All-Time High This zone marks last week’s US session close and the previous all-time high before the breakout. It now serves as deeper structural support, the base of the current rally. As long as price holds above Zone 3, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A clean break below, however, could suggest fading momentum and open the door for a deeper correction toward the prior range. Today's sentiment The Nas100 continues to trade with a cautiously positive bias after last week’s sharp rebound. Optimism is underpinned by improving risk sentiment, strong momentum in mega-cap tech, and renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more accommodative stance as inflation pressures ease. The partial US government shutdown, however, has delayed key macroeconomic releases, leaving markets “flying blind” and amplifying the potential impact of every new headline. Geopolitical developments also remain in focus: progress in US–China trade dialogue has helped calm nerves, but investors are aware that tensions over technology exports and global supply chains could resurface quickly. For traders, the setup favors tactical flexibility. Tech remains the market’s driving force, but with valuations stretched and volatility likely to spike on sparse data or political noise, short-term positioning and disciplined risk management are essential. In short, sentiment is constructive, but fragile.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie