Yields - Bearish Quarterly OutlookOffering symmetry with my bonds analysis, I am seeing a bearish '22 model with a clear area that looks like an original consolidation. I am also bearish on on all assets that directly correlate with yields.
US02Y trade ideas
High Yield to Stay, Why?This video tutorial, we will learn the difference between:
• Interest rates and yield
• Healthy yield curve and an inverted one and
• The risks and opportunities with a prolong inverted yield curve (since March 2022)
Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 5YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 30-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 30Y
0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Usa rates trend down As many of you might know we apparently have reached the peak of rates ... by rate markets we are going to hv next time a cut! Trend down
2 year yield still has a target at 5.50%Bulls still have a wave count supporting the final spiky move up in 2 year yield to 5.50%
Raising Rates Here Will Blow Japan Up. Blowing Up US Yields
Up coming Federal Reserve meeting, there's still underlying inflation in the USA but the amount of interest on debt + Japan buying US debt while their currency is almost completely free falling.
Would be one of the worst fiscal policy disasters since 2009.
Looking at Japan's society they're completely clueless of how close they are to blowing up.
1 & 2 Yr Yield look like they're running out of steamGOOD MORNING!
These will be DAILY charts but what we really need to see is how the week will close for all of these (this was thread on X)
TVC:DXY & TVC:TNX both look like they're running out of steam. The #Dollar does seem to be fighting this break.
30YR Treasury, read above statement.
1YR stopped going up long ago.
Are 2 Yr #Yields finally breaking?
Stock Market looks weak The market looks very exposed as one of the big 7 tech stocks performed poorly this earnings season. Also, interest rates look like they may have peaked however, history shows when the short-term rates fall vs long-term rates (or when rates are cut) there is a correction in the stock market.
The bear steepener and when we will get our scripted eventWatch this curve because the market always knows, and the market isn't as free as many think. Gives us a sign when the true risk off kicks in. Might be due for a short relief soon, and then it starts. A potential bounce area is market as white, might not match and steepen now, but the breadth indicates that more likely than not we will get it in a matter of weeks now since we've technically broke out from the pattern.
2 Year Treasury Yield Topped2 Year Yield will be the first to go down when the Fed starts cutting rates.
2 Year Yield On the EdgeThe US Treasury bond 2 year yield is at a level last seen in May 2006. In July 2022 the yield broke out of what was a long term down trend since 1989. Now we can see what happens next. Will the rates breakout above this level? If they do then that could indicate a real trend shift.
RSI divergence on 2 year yields Divergence implies we have seen highs in rates. RSI making lower highs as yields move up.
Looking for a bull steepener as economy enters recession or slows.
Applicable to traders in bonds. The short rate is most affected by Fed policy. A weakening in 2 year yields May presage Fed cuts.
5 Steps:Turn Your US02Y Into A Asset#1-This Is The US02Y Your Broker Doesnt Want You To Know About
Trading these bonds can be a challenge if you dont know technical analysis.
#2-What Everybody Ought To Know About The US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield Business
Getting a yeild on your trade is the most important factor especailly when it comes to ttrading for profit.
#3-These Must Be Some Of The Best Kept US02Y Secrets In The World
The secret is always to know when the right time to buy is, once you know that then you can make a good profit on your trades.
#4-WARNING:Do Not Try Another US02Y Trade Until You Get This
If you dont know how to trade TVC:US02Y this kind of set up then better yet do not do it without past experience or knowledge.
#5-How To Trade US02Y Minute By Minute
Trading this set up is something so simple.So take a look at the chart above you - have you noticed that the candle stick is below the bollinger band? what does that tell you about this price momentum?
Disclaimer:This is not financial advice do your own research before you trade
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US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield - Strong bearish divergenceOn the above 2-week chart the 2 year bond yield has increased an astonishing 4500% in a little over 2 years, perhaps you’ve noticed?. The chart is now indicating rising yields are a thing of the past, at least until 2026. From here on it is pauses and cuts until the real economy shows signs of recovery. This will likely be a difficult 2 years ahead for many.
The bearish divergence is significant. Multiple oscillators now print bearish divergence with the rising yield as measured over a 10 month period. Look left. On this time frame with this many oscillators printing divergence, the yield corrected or appreciated significantly and with momentum.
Astonishingly a majority of ideas in social media circles and even here on tradingview.com are calling for higher yields. Maybe; however the chart is saying something very different.
Is it possible yields continue to increase? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
US02Y : The BOND dilemma The recent dot plot is quite interesting. It has 2 important notes:
a) no recession
b) you got to wait longer if you are looking for cuts.
This caused yield to move UP - to price in a longer Fed pause.
And I think both short and long yield to continue to be HIGH.
In a situation with high DEBT load, a higher rate environment is trouble.
$ FX and US yield sometimes move in unison and sometime not. We just need to know when it does and when it choose not to.
We are now again at the point when things tilt. I THINK that when yield goes any higher, DXY would need to move LOWER to compensate for the higher rates. As we know, DXY is now facing some resistance on its way UP.
In a week or two, US might face another possible government shutdown. We must trade with caution.
Till the next dot plot in 12/2023, DXY might NOT move up as fast as earlier thought.
Good luck.
Setup for a new high in 2 year yieldWe have a setup for another spiky move up in 2 year yield to a new high of the year 2023.
The target for the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up = 5.365%
BArt ThingssssLooks like the bart is a real possibility here. This pattern is famous by now, you all know what it is.
2 year yield keeps pushing higherThe final exhaustive push higher in a subwave -c- of wave -v- up quite often comes as a strong rally resembling the heart of the rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up.
us Treasury yields with 30 year mortgagesimple chart if someone needs it for us treasuries and also added in the 30 year fixed avg mortgage. nice chart to track yields moving
💸😰2 Year Treasury Bond @ - 0.2% in Uptrend 📈When investors invest in short-term bonds
it means they expect inflation
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to arrive inside the current economy
this means higher food prices
and tough economic living conditions
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for the poor and middle-class
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inside this video, you will see the yield curve
and where to buy Bitcoin to save you
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from inflation
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Disclaimer:
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I am not a financial advisor, and the information
provided here is for informational purposes only.
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Stock trading and investing involve risks, and
past performance does not guarantee future results.
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It's important to conduct your own research
and consult with a qualified financial advisor
before making any investment decisions.
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Always be aware of the potential for loss, and
consider your risk tolerance and
investment goals before engaging in any trading activities.
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The content provided here does not constitute
financial advice, and I do not take
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responsibility for any financial decisions made
based on this information.
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2 year yield keeps pushing to the target at 5.50%2 year yield keeps pushing to the target at 5.50%
We are in the final wave v up. Upon completion of that five wave up rally we should get a large corrective a-b-c pullback to re-test the low made by the wave -iv- down
US02Y bullish move stopped by a fibSharing how Fib extension can catch tops and bottoms / support and resistance.
Here we have the 2yr bond yield with the 3 pivot points (marked by blue price notes) for the fib extension at Mar 24 low, Mar 31 high and Apr 05 low.
Last nights .5-ish move was suppressed by the Fib 3 boundary.
From an elliott wave perspective, there are so many 1-2 waves from the May 04 low...it would seem, if this is a correct analysis, the 2yr is headed higher...much much higher. I believe this is the 5th wave just starting and to confirm, we'll have to watch for a significant break(IE a few green non-retracing candles to be the confirmation - something like the push from 13-sep-2022 to 26-sep-2022)
2 year yield - breakoutThe yield market is going absolutely bonkers tonight in the futures.
What is the bond market telling us?
likely inflation is entrenched. If the 2 year yield closes at or above the Fed Fund Rate before we hear from Powell expect the fed to do a surprise rate hike or remain extremely hawkish.
This will no be good for stocks if this is the case.
2 Year Bond Yield Up By +0.85%
-Bonds offset volatility for equity prices
-Even though Bonds Are An Inflation Risk
-Bonds Are Also At Risk Of Interest Rate
TVC:US30Y are budget friendly even though they offer low returns
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Lubosi Bonds
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Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice please do your own research
