US10Y looks to be primed for a breakdown on the weekly possibly aligned with the fed announcment?US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield forum
US10Y looks to be primed for a breakdown on the weekly possibly aligned with the fed announcment?
US10Y UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Sept 1-5 (updated daily)Overnight
US Core PCE and Economic Indicators Summary
On August 29, 2025, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% in June, matching market expectations. The annual PCE inflation rate remained at 2.6%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually, up from 2.8% in June. The Federal Reserve, targeting 2% inflation, closely tracks these metrics. Market response was subdued, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.23% (up 2.3 basis points) and the dollar index increasing 0.21% to 98.09. Analysts suggest the data supports a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with potential additional cuts in October and December, contingent on stable PPI and CPI reports.
Source: Reuters via TradingView News
Economic Release myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
For the week of September 1–5, 2025, key economic releases likely to impact U.S. Treasury yields include Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and employment data, which could signal economic strength or weakness. Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance may reflect tariff effects and labor trends. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are critical for Federal Reserve rate decisions, with strong data potentially lifting yields (10-year at 4.26–4.39%) and weak data possibly lowering them. Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, heightening focus on these releases amid tariff and inflation concerns.
September Outlook
Monthly Analysis
The monthly chart indicates that yields have been consolidating within a narrow range of 4.18% to 4.50%. This consolidation is primarily driven by factors such as tariffs and their implications for inflation, alongside expectations for monetary policy adjustments. A bias toward the lower end of this range aligns with market anticipation of an interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting.
Weekly Outlook
On the weekly chart, yields are expected to continue trending downward, potentially retesting the previous low of 4.18% to 4.20%. However, investors should exercise caution toward the end of the week, as the release of payroll data may introduce volatility and influence market dynamics.
tradingview.com/x/BEhwVtzu/
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
daily updates will be posted in the notes in this analysis:
Idea: UST 10Y Technical Outlook for …
US10Y this is about to gap up 4.37 % strong base here…. Dollar couple pop also with a gold sell off and than gold hedgeUS10Y US TREASURY DAILY TECHNICAL AUG 29
Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained below 4.25% on Thursday, marking a two-week low, as markets evaluated the extent of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Expectations of multiple rate reductions, driven by the Fed’s concerns over labor market conditions, particularly impacted shorter-maturity yields. However, longer-dated yields were buoyed by persistent inflation concerns and political pressures, including President Trump’s push for lower rates and his attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, prompting her to file a lawsuit. Additionally, leading indicators suggest rising services inflation, with markets awaiting key PCE inflation data set for release on Friday.
Economic Release myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
US 10-Year Treasury Note (US10Y) yield suggests a cautiously bullish outlook for bond prices, corresponding to a potential decline in yields. The market has recently breached the weekly bias level of 4.242% and is cautiously approaching the previous month's low of 4.187%. This supports a bias toward lower yields today, potentially reaching the 4.187% level. Investors are awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, which may introduce volatility and serve as a catalyst for technical price movements. Traders should closely monitor price action around these levels and the PCE release for potential shifts in market dynamics. tradingview.com/x/pxPSkIIN/
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
US10Y US TREASURY DAILY TECHNICAL AUG 28Overnight
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stabilized around 4.27%, reflecting market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence amid political pressures. Recent statements from President Donald Trump regarding the potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud have heightened uncertainty, with Cook’s legal team announcing plans to challenge any dismissal. Analysts suggest that such developments could increase the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts, potentially influenced by external pressures on the central bank. Market expectations currently indicate an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the PCE price index on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which is expected to provide further clarity on monetary policy direction.
Economic Release myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Outlook
Based on the US10Y yield chart snapshot from August 28, 2025, the weekly outlook for US 10-year Treasury bonds suggests a bullish trend for bond prices, as yields are holding above key support levels around 4.187% to 4.242%, indicating potential buying interest and a move toward lower yields. On the daily timeframe, the bond market also appears bullish, with yields testing resistance near 4.312% before pulling back toward 4.232%, reflecting short-term consolidation but maintaining downward pressure on yields, which supports higher bond prices. tradingview.com/x/qNV4wy91/
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
follow complete week analysis here:
Idea: UST 10Y Technical Outlook for…
US10Y in UptrendUS10Y US TREASURY DAILY TECHNICAL AUG 27
Overnight
On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to approximately 4.3%, marking a second consecutive session of gains, as investors anticipated the release of the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, later in the week. The economic calendar also featured key data releases, including durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Market volatility was further amplified by political developments following President Donald Trump’s announcement to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. This move raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and its ability to maintain impartial monetary policy. Analysts suggested that Cook’s dismissal could increase the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s ongoing pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Futures markets currently indicate an 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting.
No major economic release today myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Outlook
The US 10-year Treasury yield, extended ~4.3% on Tuesday, after a lull session on Monday. Anticipation for the PCE price index on Friday and Fed independence concerns may drive volatility. Technicals suggest a downward bias on daily/weekly timeframes anticipating a test of yesterday’s low of 4.25% and previous week low of 4.242%. tradingview.com/x/JoGBFc14
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
US10Y (Bloomberg) -- President Trump says Fed Governor Lisa Cook will be removed from position effective immediately, according to a letter posted on his Truth Social account.US10Y President Donald Trump’s call for the immediate removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stems from allegations of mortgage fraud leveled against her by Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). According to reports, Pulte accused Cook of falsifying bank documents and property records to secure more favorable mortgage loan terms by claiming two properties—one in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and another in Atlanta, Georgia—as her primary residence in applications submitted two weeks apart in June 2021. Mortgages for primary residences typically have lower interest rates than those for secondary or investment properties, and Pulte alleges this constitutes “occupancy fraud,” potentially a criminal offense. He referred the matter to the U.S. Department of Justice for investigation, as outlined in a letter dated August 15, 2025.Trump amplified these claims, posting on Truth Social that “Cook must resign, now!!!” and, according to the Bloomberg report you mentioned, later stated she would be removed effective immediately. This move aligns with Trump’s broader campaign to influence the Federal Reserve, including pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates and criticizing its leadership, particularly Chair Jerome Powell. Cook, appointed by President Joe Biden in 2022 and the first Black woman on the Fed’s Board of Governors, has denied the allegations, stating she has “no intention of being bullied to step down” and is gathering information to address the claims, which predate her Fed tenure.
However, removing a Fed governor is legally complex. Federal Reserve governors can only be removed “for cause,” such as malfeasance or dereliction of duty, and any attempt to fire Cook could lead to a legal battle over presidential authority. No charges have been filed against Cook, and the Federal Reserve has declined to comment on the allegations. The Justice Department has also not confirmed whether it will pursue an investigation.
This situation reflects Trump’s ongoing efforts to reshape the Fed’s leadership to align with his economic priorities, including appointing Stephen Miran to replace another governor, Adriana Kugler, who resigned unexpectedly in August 2025. Critics argue these actions threaten the Federal Reserve’s independence, which is crucial for maintaining impartial monetary policy.
US10Y UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Aug 25-29 (updated daily)Overnight
Overnight, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 4.28%, a decline of nearly 10 basis points from its session highs, following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s keynote speech. Powell indicated that the balance of risks between inflationary pressures and a softening labor market has shifted, paving the way for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, with markets increasing expectations for further policy easing in the fourth quarter. Rate futures reflect a consensus for two total rate cuts in 2025, though 40% of the market anticipates three cuts. However, a steepening yield curve suggests ongoing inflation concerns, fueled by a strong Producer Price Index release and rising prices in ISM and S&P PMI data, highlighting a divergence between short- and long-term interest rate expectations. This development signals a shift toward looser monetary policy to support the labor market, but persistent inflationary pressures warrant caution. Stakeholders should closely monitor upcoming Federal Reserve communications and economic indicators, such as CPI and employment reports, to gauge the trajectory of interest rates and their broader market implications.
Economic Release for the week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Weekly Outlook
With US Treasury yield, at 4.28% as of Friday, yield may trend lower this week (August 25–29) after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a 25-basis-point rate cut in September due to a softening labor market. Markets expect yields could dip further if upcoming data like durable goods orders and consumer confidence signal economic cooling, though persistent inflation concerns may limit declines. Monitor key economic releases for yield direction. tradingview.com/x/kWl0kGus
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
