US10Y what is the grade of the bondCommunity discussions
US10Y what is the grade of the bond
US10Y Does someone mind explaining to me how the 10 year yield and the s&p500 are correlated? I see online that people reference the 10 year yield when determining how the economy is doing ( i think), but does anyone mind explaining in layman terms how they mix with each other. Thank you!!
US10Y is the 10y calling BS? i think it might be
US10Y market priced in a cut already before the meeting lol
US10Y looks to be primed for a breakdown on the weekly possibly aligned with the fed announcment?
US10Y UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Sept 1-5 (updated daily)Overnight
US Core PCE and Economic Indicators Summary
On August 29, 2025, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% in June, matching market expectations. The annual PCE inflation rate remained at 2.6%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually, up from 2.8% in June. The Federal Reserve, targeting 2% inflation, closely tracks these metrics. Market response was subdued, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.23% (up 2.3 basis points) and the dollar index increasing 0.21% to 98.09. Analysts suggest the data supports a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with potential additional cuts in October and December, contingent on stable PPI and CPI reports.
Source: Reuters via TradingView News
Economic Release myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
For the week of September 1–5, 2025, key economic releases likely to impact U.S. Treasury yields include Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and employment data, which could signal economic strength or weakness. Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance may reflect tariff effects and labor trends. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are critical for Federal Reserve rate decisions, with strong data potentially lifting yields (10-year at 4.26–4.39%) and weak data possibly lowering them. Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, heightening focus on these releases amid tariff and inflation concerns.
September Outlook
Monthly Analysis
The monthly chart indicates that yields have been consolidating within a narrow range of 4.18% to 4.50%. This consolidation is primarily driven by factors such as tariffs and their implications for inflation, alongside expectations for monetary policy adjustments. A bias toward the lower end of this range aligns with market anticipation of an interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting.
Weekly Outlook
On the weekly chart, yields are expected to continue trending downward, potentially retesting the previous low of 4.18% to 4.20%. However, investors should exercise caution toward the end of the week, as the release of payroll data may introduce volatility and influence market dynamics.
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**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
daily updates will be posted in the notes in this analysis:
Idea: UST 10Y Technical Outlook for …
US10Y this is about to gap up 4.37 % strong base here…. Dollar couple pop also with a gold sell off and than gold hedgeUS10Y US TREASURY DAILY TECHNICAL AUG 29
Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained below 4.25% on Thursday, marking a two-week low, as markets evaluated the extent of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Expectations of multiple rate reductions, driven by the Fed’s concerns over labor market conditions, particularly impacted shorter-maturity yields. However, longer-dated yields were buoyed by persistent inflation concerns and political pressures, including President Trump’s push for lower rates and his attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, prompting her to file a lawsuit. Additionally, leading indicators suggest rising services inflation, with markets awaiting key PCE inflation data set for release on Friday.
Economic Release myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
US 10-Year Treasury Note (US10Y) yield suggests a cautiously bullish outlook for bond prices, corresponding to a potential decline in yields. The market has recently breached the weekly bias level of 4.242% and is cautiously approaching the previous month's low of 4.187%. This supports a bias toward lower yields today, potentially reaching the 4.187% level. Investors are awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, which may introduce volatility and serve as a catalyst for technical price movements. Traders should closely monitor price action around these levels and the PCE release for potential shifts in market dynamics. tradingview.com/x/pxPSkIIN/
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
US10Y US TREASURY DAILY TECHNICAL AUG 28Overnight
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stabilized around 4.27%, reflecting market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence amid political pressures. Recent statements from President Donald Trump regarding the potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud have heightened uncertainty, with Cook’s legal team announcing plans to challenge any dismissal. Analysts suggest that such developments could increase the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts, potentially influenced by external pressures on the central bank. Market expectations currently indicate an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the PCE price index on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which is expected to provide further clarity on monetary policy direction.
Economic Release myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Outlook
Based on the US10Y yield chart snapshot from August 28, 2025, the weekly outlook for US 10-year Treasury bonds suggests a bullish trend for bond prices, as yields are holding above key support levels around 4.187% to 4.242%, indicating potential buying interest and a move toward lower yields. On the daily timeframe, the bond market also appears bullish, with yields testing resistance near 4.312% before pulling back toward 4.232%, reflecting short-term consolidation but maintaining downward pressure on yields, which supports higher bond prices. tradingview.com/x/qNV4wy91/
**Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Idea: UST 10Y Technical Outlook for…
