If the market wants to go up, we followThe US500 is breaking the resistance level and trading to new highs. We have to remind ourselves that we are not here to predict, but rather to follow the market. The market is breaking higher, and thus we follow.
For this trade, likely best to just use a trailing stop loss using either a 2-day low price, or ATRx2 trailing stop loss.
US500 trade ideas
SPX500 - 10% historical gains aheadThe Fed is shifting gears – and history shows what usually follows. Looking back at the past 21 Fed cutting cycles since 1957, the S&P 500 delivered +9.6% average returns within 12 months after the first cut.
This rally wasn’t just luck:
+6.1% from multiple expansion as valuations re-rate higher
+3.5% from earnings growth as financial conditions ease
Technically, the SPX500 has just broken out of consolidation and remains in a strong upward channel. Momentum is aligned with history – positioning the index for another leg higher. 🚀
If history rhymes, we could be looking at double-digit gains over the next year. The risk/reward couldn’t be clearer.
>> The white box shows you what a +10% gain would mean.
👉 Are you positioned for the next Fed-cut bull leg?
Stay safe and happy trading,
Meikel
SPX 2Hour Time frameSPX 2-Hour Snapshot
Current Value: 6,512.61 USD
Change: +0.27% from the previous close
Intraday High: 6,525.75 USD
Intraday Low: 6,490.25 USD
🔎 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral
Moving Averages:
5-period MA: 6,487.92 USD
20-period MA: 6,456.40 USD
50-period MA: 6,363.42 USD
100-period MA: 6,086.43 USD
200-period MA: 5,975.33 USD
📈 Market Sentiment
Pivot Points:
Resistance: 6,525.75 USD
Support: 6,490.25 USD
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,525.75 USD could signal a move toward 6,600 USD.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,490.25 USD may lead to further downside.
Overall Bias: Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
S&P | 30min Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders 👋
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P has been pushing into new highs, but a potential double top is forming right at diagonal resistance. This is a key level for me — the confluence of structure and resistance makes this an area worth watching closely.
If the double top holds, price might first deviate through my entry range and then retest the diagonal resistance. For me to take a short, I’ll be looking for a 30-minute candle close back within the range as confirmation.
📊 Trade Plan:
RR: 3.5
Entry:6 537.4
Stop Loss: 6 543.8
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 515
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 511
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
When trading double tops, I always wait for confirmation (like a close back within range). It reduces false entries and adds probability to the trade.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me for more setups and let me know — do you think this double top will hold, or will the S&P push through resistance to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPX 3Hour Time frameSPX 3-Hour Snapshot
Current Price: 6,512.62 USD
Change: +0.21% from the previous close
Recent High: 6,508.23 USD (August 28, 2025)
Recent Low: 5,500.00 USD (March 13, 2025)
🔎 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): Neutral
MACD: Bullish momentum
Moving Averages:
5-period SMA: Buy signal
10-period SMA: Buy signal
20-period SMA: Buy signal
50-period SMA: Buy signal
📈 Market Sentiment
Golden Cross: The S&P 500 recently formed a "golden cross," where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
Business Insider
Analyst Outlook: Barclays raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,450, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence.
Reuters
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 6,508.23 USD could lead to a push toward 6,600 USD and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,400 USD may test support around 6,200 USD.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.
4H IdeaThe only trade as of now would be a retest of old resistance/support. Have a stop under support area.
Entry 1 - would be a bit more aggressive as price moves into old resistance.
Entry 2 - enter as price moves towards the bottom of old resistance.
Entry 3 - would be entered as price starts to bounce from old resistance.
This would be the plan, however, the caveat is this: How did price get back to old resistance?
If price starts to build lower highs and lower lows as it moves back down then the plan may have to be scrapped as there is a higher potential for price to fail and begin to trend lower.
4H Played OutFirst entry retested and played out to the upside almost picture perfect. Again, would've possibly stopped you out on the first entry as it wicked below the support area, but upon a possible re-entry once it came back into support you would have made back that loss and then some.
2nd entry or possible add-on area. This was a bit more riskier as a 2nd entry due to price moving up from original entry. Price consolidated overnight and wicked down into the support area at Tuesday's market open. Buyers again stepped in and though there was drawdown, there was a fixed place to stop out below the consolidation area, so risk was known upon entry. 4 hour targets were hit.
There is no trade now until a retest or news to bring price down on the 4 hour time frame.
SNP500 long target 6600.0weaker labor market data has boosted expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in a high chance of a September move that would ease financial conditions and support equities. Tech momentum—particularly Nasdaq strength and the addition of Robinhood and AppLovin to the S&P 500—is adding fuel, while investors also position ahead of key inflation data that could reinforce the dovish outlook. Institutional forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI projecting further upside into year-end and beyond have strengthened confidence, making futures an attractive, liquid, and leveraged way to gain exposure to the anticipated rally
4h Retest and TargetThe S&P had broken above a point where sellers came in previously, but could not push price down, hence the consolidation where the red and green boxes are drawn. Price came back down, tested the previous consolidation area, buyers stepped in and price held. (Looking at the wick, it's possible to have entered and been stopped out, but as it moved back up, could've looked for a re-entry and stop below the wick)
Friday had its push up, consolidated, and so far on Monday has held its gains. If I were in at the retest area, this new consolidation area is where I'd put my stop and use previous all time highs as the target.
S&P 500 | Rising Wedge at Highs – April VWAP in FocusThe S&P 500 has been climbing inside a rising wedge pattern, often seen as a sign that momentum is slowing down. At the same time, the RSI is showing lower highs, which hints at weakening strength behind the move.
Right now, the market feels like it’s waiting for a spark. That spark could come from the macro side — whether it’s rising bond yields making stocks look less attractive, political and trade policy uncertainty shaking confidence, or fresh worries about how much longer central banks can keep rates high. Any of these could act as the trigger for a break.
If the wedge breaks to the downside, the first key area to watch is the anchored VWAP from the April lows. That level has the potential to act as a support zone, since it represents where buyers stepped back in during the last big turnaround after the tariff scare.
For now, it’s a case of patience and levels: wedge support on the downside, VWAP from April as the bigger decision point.
SPX | Buy & Sell Setup | 08 Sep 2025 – 11:05 EDT
SPX | Buy & Sell Setup | 08 Sep 2025 – 11:05 EDT
Buy Zone: 6509– 6490
Sell Zone: 6469 – 6357
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 6510
Stop Loss: 6465
Targets:
TP1 → 6580 (1:5)
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (6509– 6490) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 6465
Stop Loss: 6510
Targets:
TP1 → 6415
TP2 → 6350
Analysis:
From Sell Zone (6469 – 6357) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
S&P500 | 100 year bullish channel | GTradingMethodHello Traders - Happy Monday!
I thought this was a very interesting perspective on S&P500.
What they don’t want you to see... 👀
The S&P has been moving inside a bullish channel for nearly 100 years (since 1925).
Right now, price is breaking out of that channel but is it fakeout?
If it’s a fakeout, the implications are huge: we could be looking at a 70% drop back to the bottom of the channel.
⚠️ Chart is on the monthly timeframe with a logarithmic scale.
What do you think — breakout or fakeout? Very keen to hear all your thoughts
#TradingLife
SPX500 Awaits Breakout – Key Levels 6,506 & 6,486SPX500 – Overview
The S&P 500 is holding above the 6,490 pivot, with short-term momentum favoring a retest of 6,506.
Technical Outlook:
📈 Bullish scenario: While above 6,490, price is expected to test 6,506. A confirmed breakout above this level would extend upside toward 6,527 → 6,550.
📉 Bearish scenario: A confirmed 1H close below 6,486 would open the way to 6,469, with further downside toward 6,425 if that level breaks.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,490
Resistance: 6,506 – 6,527 – 6,550
Support: 6,469 – 6,453 – 6,425