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USDCNH trade ideas

US Dollar Pressuring Yuan as USD/CNH Breaks Year-Long TrendlineThe US Dollar is making a move against the Chinese Yuan after months of consolidation. USD/CNH took out a year-long falling trendline, as well as the 6.3941 - 6.4107 resistance zone. This marks the highest close since October. Further upside confirmation could perhaps hint at a turning point for the almost 2-year long downtrend. A bullish crossover between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remains in play. These lines could come into play in the event prices turn lower, holding as key support. The breakout has exposed the September high at 6.4880. Negative RSI divergence does show that upside momentum is fading, so keep an eye on the trendline. The latter could hold as new support in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USDCHN Could Fly to 6.5000 or 6.8000 by 2023Global View: "U.S. and Chinese Bond Yields Converge, Reversing a Decadelong Pattern: China’s formerly large yield advantage has disappeared" (WSJ: www.wsj.com ) "Capital outflows from China are expected to continue in coming weeks after an exodus of foreign funds from Chinese sovereign bonds in March, experts said, as the country’s yield advantage over US Treasuries disappeared for the first time since 2010." (SCMP: www.scmp.com ) tradingeconomics.com Technicals: C&H or IHS with Volume Confirmation Projection: 6.5000, 6.6500 and 6.8000
Long
by Rocketman
1
How China’s zero-COVID policy is taking a toll on its economyThe more contagious omicron strain of COVID-19 is testing China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy and while many signs underscore the strategy’s adverse impact on the country’s economic recovery, Beijing continues to stick to it, dismissing suggestions that China should learn to live with the virus as other nations do. Lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Shenzhen, dubbed as China’s Silicon Valley, prompted authorities to impose a week-long lockdown of its 17.5 million residents in March. The curbs forced the closure of some factories including those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Foxconn (TW:2317) and carmakers Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen (FRA:VOW). Shenzhen is also home to tech giants including Tencent (HKG:0700) and Huawei Technologies. While JP Morgan analysts do not expect the Shenzhen lockdown to have a big impact on iPhone production, some economists have delivered a grim warning on the lockdown in Shanghai. Authorities in China’s financial hub last week extended the lockdown of 26 million people as the city launched its largest public health response in the COVID-19 pandemic era. ING Bank’s Greater China chief economist Iris Pang warned that the cost of the lockdown in Shanghai and in other areas in China will have a “huge” cost to the country’s growth. Shanghai is tipped to suffer a 6% GDP loss if the lockdown persists in April, leading to a 2% GDP loss for the whole of China. The lockdown in Shanghai also affected the production of some known brands including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), German auto parts giant Bosch, and Taiwan’s Pegatron (TW:4938), another iPhone assembler. Offshore Yuan and China H-shares After trending downward for the previous 7 months, news of the extreme lockdowns prompted the USDCNH to break upwards and out of its channel. The USDCNH, at this point, doesn’t have a clear path back to its previous territory. Conversely, the China H-shares index saw a reversal of fortune on March 16. The China H-shares index follows Chinese incorporated companies which are traded on exchanges outside the country. The boost may have come from investors realising that China would be unlikely to face sanction from the US after failing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine more forcibly in the beginning. GDP slowdown The latest developments in China are widely expected to take a toll on the economy that is already battered by the slowdown in the real estate sector and other downward risks. Everbright Securities recently warned that Beijing’s move to cling to its zero-COVID strategy could knock 10 percentage points out of China’s GDP on a quarterly basis in the first quarter. Natixis, meanwhile, expects the lockdowns and transport restrictions to slash 1.8 percentage points from China’s first-quarter GDP. Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in late March warned that "the economy is in the midst of its most abrupt downturn since early 2020.” China is set to release its quarterly GDP data on Monday, April 18.
by BlackBull_Markets
$USDCNH $USDCNY about to launch - Yen will pressure YuanYuan is a ticking time bomb - and is squeezing. BOJ is devaluing Yen because dollar is exporting inflation to other currencies forcing stronger currencies to hike first before easing, and forcing EM's to ease immediately to stop them from blowing up their economy from deflationary tendencies. Yuan competes with Yen for labor competition - so Yen being devalued by BOJ buying unlimited bonds via YCC will force Yuan to devalue also. Charts linked to previously posted idea of gold dropping in response to the Yen. Opportunity of a lifetime trade right here...
Long
by EmptyEternity
THE HOLY GRAIL CASE STUDY # 18Last summer we mentioned and anticipated a bullish break on this pair and now it can be seen. As price made a falling wedge -accumulation above the pervious double bottom (circle) respecting it . Giving us a overall higher low and higher highs. With the wedge breaking out and retesting last week it wouldn’t be surprising to see global events shift with price as we know China is partners with Russia and is playing the break ground I bet this move here will expose there brotherhood and give the elites a reason to manipulate higher prices here. As nothing is randomly done!!! so all we can do playing alone n make money of what is coming to better prepare for the road they put us on.
by Donajor8
Ichimoku: USDCNH Long@6.3636f you like my strategy, please strictly control the single loss between 1-2%. We have played many games in the market. The investment itself is very low-risk, and irrationality is the biggest risk. My trading behavior report is available at the link below. I can analyze the market in a short time, involving foreign exchange, encrypted currency, commodities and stock indexes. Quality needs your long-term follow-up verification. Your support and comments are the driving force of my update! and Thank you
Long
by ichimoku163
USDCNH 17th MARCH 202213 Chinese cities have been in total lockdown since Tuesday, and several others have been in partial lockdown. The Chinese government reported that there were around 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 nationwide in March. Chinese health officials have urged people over 60 to get vaccinated - including a third booster ASAP. Technically we can see the limits of support and resistance trendline. it will be a bullish spike when the resistance line breaks. this is my trading plan for USDCNH, are you also waiting for a breakout on this pair?
Long
by DNP-FX
JICPT| USDCNH testing policy bottom of Chinese governmentHello everyone. USDCNH created a recent new low since May of 2018 when the trade tensions between US and China emerged, followed by sharply depreciation of Renminbi. With the help of strong export in the past two years, Renminbi went against the greenback by 12ish%. If the Renminbi becomes too strong, it'll undermine its export competitiveness. There was no wonder that the government held two meetings last year when the pair touched 6.35 (policy bottom), reclaiming the double direction movement of the currency. The government also raised reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency twice from 5% to the current 9%. I reckoned it as a signal to prevent it from further appreciation. So, how does the market react? Does the downtrend of USDCNH get reversed? Not yet from the chart. What got my attention is the 400 bullish daily candle on Jan 27th with huge volume compared to nearby candles. I guess it was sort of a intervention and I don't believe the big movement was created by retail investors. Then, there was huge volume bar(golden) candle with thin spread, suggested the battle between buyers and sellers. It seemed that buyers took a watch attitude since then. Now, the nearest control high is 6.36-6.38 . Until this zone got violated, the pair may start accumulation to form a sideway market before coming up. I'm expecting another big bullish bar soon . What do you think?
Long
by JICPT
USDCHH SHORTPossible downward movement of the pair. The price is currently in a trading zone with significant volume maintaining rejections from the top of the price and making resistance possible at the 55 period Ema, which is fundamental in my strategy for the analysis of possible trend continuations, as seen in the past, falling after the rbeote to the EMA. We see a change in directionality to bearish in indicators such as the Squeezy Momentum and MACD histogram accompanied by possible selling patterns shortly in the MACD lines and the possible loss of strength of the previous rebound to the MEA, indicated by the ADX. The move could be accompanied by the negative sloping RSI. I think it could continue its trend or look for areas below previous lows.
Short
by alcaedad
USDCNH Long Term TradeFundamental Insight We all know that U.S. in tightening cycle now, and half of the world will follow soon, but only China did the rate cut. On January 5, Premier Li said the government should implement “new and greater combined tax and fee cuts ensure a stable start for the economy in Q1 stabilize the macroeconomy.” On December 27, the MoF reiterated that it would “strengthen the coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary, employment, and other policies” and added that the government will “give play to the role of fiscal policy to stabilize investment and promote consumption.” The PBoC recently added a new call to “take more proactive measures to boost support for the real economy” and “better stabilize the aggregate credit growth” as well as “bring down the overall financing costs for businesses.”
Long
by TradingCocktail
Is the Chinese Yuan Readying to Reverse?The Chinese Yuan spent most of 2021 appreciating against the US Dollar despite a broadly upbeat year for the latter. Now, fundamentals may be paving the way for its turnaround amid the risk of slowing demand for Chinese exports - www.dailyfx.com USD/CNH recently turned higher following a more hawkish Federal Reserve, reinforcing the key 6.3526 - 6.3238 support zone. Meanwhile, the PBOC is looking comparatively dovish. Positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn higher. Immediate resistance appears to be the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 6.3833 before the midpoint at 6.4110. Down the road, the pair would have to face falling resistance from March which could reinstate the broader downside focus. On the other hand, taking out the key support zone exposes the 100% extension at 6.2936.
by QM_Dubrovsky
1