Zooming out to the monthly CNHUSD which represents offshore yuan, we have clearly had an exit from the downtrend that has been in place for close to a decade. The big question is, what's next? Right now, I'm seeing the CNH drop out of a rising wedge to potentially retest the downtrend and/or the 72/89 EMA cloud. I've drawn out my best guess on what a retest would look like. Likely a pull back that translates to sideways consolidation on the 72/89 EMA cloud, and then a rally up.
This chart is more interesting from more of the global implications perspective. Will China devalue again as they did in 2015? If the bull scenario plays out here, what would cause a significant increase in demand of CNH and CNY?
Keeping this macro chart on the list of things to watch.
This chart is more interesting from more of the global implications perspective. Will China devalue again as they did in 2015? If the bull scenario plays out here, what would cause a significant increase in demand of CNH and CNY?
Keeping this macro chart on the list of things to watch.
Comment:
Like a knife through butter... was expecting a bit more of a fight. The dollar is wreaking havoc everywhere right now. Continuing to watch.
Comment:
Trying to find some support right now. Ideally, we see this bounce back to .152 if we wanted this to have a fighting chance. A close at this level is looking more bearish for the long term (next few years).