As the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and...
Antipodeans leading to the upside, with some support garnered from the PBoC’s efforts to prop up China’s economy, including easing its RRR and an injection of CNY 10 billion via 7-day reverse repos.
However, despite the above, concerns surrounding the global economic outlook are continuing to grow, pulling the antipodeans off their best levels and supporting JPY,...
The US Dollar is making a move against the Chinese Yuan after months of consolidation.
USD/CNH took out a year-long falling trendline, as well as the 6.3941 - 6.4107 resistance zone. This marks the highest close since October. Further upside confirmation could perhaps hint at a turning point for the almost 2-year long downtrend.
A bullish crossover between the...
Zooming out to the monthly CNHUSD which represents offshore yuan, we have clearly had an exit from the downtrend that has been in place for close to a decade. The big question is, what's next? Right now, I'm seeing the CNH drop out of a rising wedge to potentially retest the downtrend and/or the 72/89 EMA cloud. I've drawn out my best guess on what a retest would...
Republishing this from my USDCNY post.
1. Head and Shoulders pattern
2. MA's + PA show a bottoming pattern
3. China will devalue the Yuan (Remnimbi)
4. Dollar $DXY will go over 106
5. Gold $XAUUSD will go below $1,500 oz.
6. Silvere $XAGUSD will go below $15 oz.
Trade idea related to this currency pair that goes through other macro factors
All because of the situation with one of the largest developers in China - China Evergrande Group, which found itself on the verge of default (debt size ~ $ 300 billion).
The possible bankruptcy of the company will hurt not only the Chinese economy (remember Lehman Brothers).
Deposits in Chinese banks are about to $35 trillion, which is twice the size of the...
Hey friends. One of my friends (and 100% a 'boomer in the making') was looking for some info on BABA. His strategy is always "BTFD" , and he holds very the long term.
Looking at $BABA through a bullish perspective, it's in a decent oversold condition with a defined risk/reward. The weekly candle is a bullish reversal 'doji', and we're below the forming...
Speculation for Macro:
- 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time).
- 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after.
- 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history.
IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to...
hey the dollar going down down down against these giant EUR and RMB . the rise of Asian currencies also help pushes the dollar lower.
when the banks WAKES UP tomorrow finding that the dollar vaults is the WORST PERFORMER ASSET OF THE YEAR they will dump the usd debt papers on the streets and causing the ugliest drop for usd, simply because its hugely...
If so, means the money flow from China to Taiwan.
The CNYTWD lower than the lowest of 2008 financial crisis.The trend of monthly is down and pullback to the resistance.
It might become a false break up than go down continuously.
Anybody agree or disagree my prediction?Please comment and feedback.Thanks.
ING discussed its expectations for the USDCNY in a recent note to clients.
Finally, the PBoC acts to deter yuan appreciation
After several rounds of talking down yuan appreciation, China's central bank has now taken some firmer action. The PBoC will raise fx deposit reserves from 5% to 7% effective from 15th June. This comes after the PBoC appreciated the...
CNY has broken a major long term trendline against the US dollar. I believe there is more upside ahead for the Chinese Yuan.
The Chinese gov will try to talk down the Yuan to dollar but that will not work without some major government intervention. Just today, they announced a hike in reserve ratio requirements for the first time since May 2007. This move didn't...
I hope you are well
In our previous analysis, we focused on buying transactions. In this analysis, we analyzed the chart in daily time. You can see that Zoon 0.9448 to 0.9490 has good price support. We also have a resistance-resistance line that reacts to this line several times. But this time, the price may be trapped and break the support level and...
📌 Another round of updates for the Yearly close on the MT and LT maps, sellers may still be in control but buyers are flirting with that breakup. This will occupy the battlefield and unlock a test of 4,500 for 2021.
What is wrong with the bull case is exhausting to list; the exchange of capital from public to private assets is developing sooner than I expected....