EURUSD LONGlongs from weekly key level support, h4 CRT low fromed, entering on 3rd candle in london session, anticipating NY extension towards the crt H targets
Trade ideas
Is the EUR due a correction?Today I will be going into the Fundamental Analysis behind why I think the OANDA:EURUSD is ready for a rebalance.
As we have seen all through Q1-Q3 of this year Bullish runs towards 1.25; this is what the ECB are currently wanting for the EUR. The DXY is now nearing over extension on Bears, this comes as the TVC:DXY had been setting up a Market Maker Sell Model since October 2001. Lets get stuck into the Fundamentals and Macro Economic data behind why I believe we are now due a correction.
As we enter Q4 growth remains more resilient than in other developed economies, with Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% annualised, while unemployment holds around 4.2%. Inflation has eased from its peaks, but core PCE remains at 2.9% year-on-year and continues to print around 0.3% month-on-month. That is not the inflation profile of an economy returning quickly to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. For the Fed, this means less freedom to cut aggressively, even though the market had hoped for a deeper easing cycle. The result has been a repricing of expectations: investors are now looking for less than 40bps of cuts by year-end, down from over 75bps earlier in the summer. That repricing has slowed dollar weakness, and if inflation proves sticky through the next few prints, it may force the Fed to hold policy tighter for longer, which supports the dollar.
Yields continue to provide an advantage. The U.S. two-year Treasury trades near 3.6%, while the German equivalent is closer to 2.7%, keeping a spread of roughly 90bps in the dollar’s favour. That premium is significant in a global environment where capital searches for relative yield. Unless inflation falls sharply or the growth outlook in the U.S. deteriorates meaningfully, investors have little reason to abandon dollar assets. At the same time, U.S. M2 money supply has resumed growth, up nearly 5% year-on-year to about $22.2 trillion. While velocity remains subdued, the resumption of money growth carries the risk of keeping inflation more persistent than markets would prefer. A central bank facing that backdrop cannot ease quickly, which again leaves policy tilted toward dollar strength
Seasonality provides an additional layer of support. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen into the final quarter of the year, particularly against the euro, where autumn often brings weakness. While seasonality is not a driver on its own, it reinforces the broader narrative by suggesting that USD rallies in Q4 have a tendency to persist.
The euro, however, is not without potential upside incentives. A material hawkish surprise from the ECB, such as firmer guidance or hints at additional tightening, could compress the yield spread. Upside surprises in Eurozone inflation or growth data, especially PMIs and CPI, could narrow the gap with the U.S. economy. A sharp deterioration in U.S. data (weaker payrolls, falling consumption, or a faster decline in inflation) could also undermine the dollar. These are the conditions under which EUR/USD could break higher and challenge the bearish bias.
For now, the base case remains a firm dollar into year-end. Inflation is sticky, U.S. growth is stronger, yields remain higher, money supply growth risks keeping inflation alive, positioning still favours USD upside, and seasonality supports the pattern. The reversal triggers are clear: Core PCE must fall convincingly below 2.5%, unemployment must rise above 5%, or Eurozone data must deliver a genuine positive surprise. Short of that, the dollar remains the currency with the strongest foundation going into Q4.
Stop going into these markets blind; read the data.
Let me know your guys' opinion on the matter.
UPDATE ON EUR/USD SET UPEUR/USD 30M - As you can see this trade played out beautifully, we have seen that price traded into the zone we had highlighted, rejected well and gave us the structure we wanted to see.
I now want to find another area we can look to enter short from, its just a case of waiting for price to pullback into another area of interest to set a new lower high before going on to set some new lows, I will provide you all with some new zones.
This trade is currently running + 110 pips. (+ 6%) 6RR
A big well done to those who jumped in on this trade, if you have any questions with regards to the analysis provided then please drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
Please ensure you are taking partials throughout the trade and applying safety measures, its important these trades are managed correctly. Update you all again soon!
It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop"TARGET HIT!
Euro weakness (thanks, political drama!)
The price accelerated lower, rewarding sellers with a clear run and my sellside liquidity was grabbed.
EURUSD retracement continuesYesterday, EURUSD failed to form a higher low and extended its correction.
The next key support levels are 1,1593 and 1,1506.
Watch for a reaction around these support zones and potential buying opportunities.
Current levels are not suitable for aggressive entries!
EURUSD : Status @ 7/10Direction: Sell
Signal triggered: 7/10/2025
Stop when:
a) Stop Loss @ 1.1721; or if
b) Buy signal triggered
Action:
Sell the high
Good luck.
After a long wait, we finally have a Sell Signal. We can refer to the green line @ 1.1659 as the resistance line now.
oct 7: failoh well i'm kinda ducked...
the volume bars, I forgot to add to my analysis, so I failed to see if it will be going up or not...
because, price move up isn't supported by CVD,
and the big displacement candle long was not supported by volume(above MA21 line),
so yeah the move up is fake. sad day ngl.
so, lesson:
to validate whether the price move is legit or not, is to look at volume bars, not just price action and CVD+FRVP.
EURUSD Long: Bounce Expected from 1.1660 DemandHello, traders! The prior market structure for EURUSD was defined by a descending channel, from which the price eventually broke out and entered a new consolidation range. The price action within this range has seen a rotation from the 1.1780 supply level down to the 1.1660 demand level, where buyer initiative has re-emerged.
Currently, the auction is trading near this 1.1660 demand level after a reversal from the lows. The market is showing signs of building support in this zone, suggesting that the corrective move from the range highs may be complete.
My scenario for the development of events is that after a final small correction, the price will continue its growth within the consolidation. I believe a successful defense of the demand zone will trigger a new rotation to the upside. The take-profit is therefore set at 1.1750, targeting the upper portion of the range. Manage your risk!
Eur/Usd - Bullish Breakout or Bearish Reversal AheadEURUSD on the 15-minute chart is currently approaching a key decision point where the next directional move will be determined. After a strong recovery from the support zone, buyers are showing momentum, pushing price back toward the decision area, which also aligns with a previous structural break of structure (BOS) zone.
If bullish pressure continues, we can expect price to break above the decision point, confirming buyers’ dominance. A clear 15-minute candle close above this zone will likely attract more buying interest, driving price toward the resistance target above. This movement would suggest a short-term bullish continuation, following the momentum generated from the recent rebound.
However, if price fails to sustain above the decision point and faces rejection within the supply area, it could trigger a bearish reversal. Sellers may then step in aggressively, pushing the pair back down toward the support target. This reaction would validate the decision point as a strong supply zone, indicating that buyers have lost control and sellers are regaining strength.
This setup is a classic structure-based scenario — where price will decide whether to extend the bullish correction or resume its bearish trend from the decision point.
EURUSD: Bearish Setup Builds Below $1.1778FenzoFx—Euro began dipping after it tapped into the bearish fair value gap with resistance at $1.1778. Looking at the 4-hour charts, we notice equal lows with liquidity resting below $1.1712.
From a technical perspective, we expect the price to start a new bearish leg if the fair value gap with resistance at $1.1778 holds. Please note that the downtrend outlook should be invalidated if the price closes and stabilizes above this mark.
EURUSD Last chance to maintain the long-term bullish trend.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 21 High and today it came to the closest its been to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). That is the trend-line that formed its last Higher Low on August 01.
As long as it holds, we expect a rebound, targeting at least Resistance 1 at 1.19190. A 1D candle close below it though, would be the first strong sign of a potential long-term bearish reversal on the market, targeting Support 2 and a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.13905.
The fact that the price is so close to the 1D MA100 makes it perfect for a tight SL strategy implementation on either case.
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EUR/USD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/USD pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 1.175 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
EURUSD Massive Long! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EUR/USD is below:
The market is trading on 1.1659 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.1691
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 7, 2025 EURUSDThe euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) after France's new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and his government resigned on Monday, just hours after the cabinet was announced.
Sébastien Lecornu resigned just a few weeks after his appointment, making his government the shortest-lived in modern French history. This raises concerns about a new political crisis in France and puts some pressure on the euro.
The ongoing US government shutdown may raise concerns about its impact on the country's economy, which could lead to a decline in the dollar and become a favorable factor for the main currency pair.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its October meeting amid signs of a weakening labor market.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1665, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1480
EUR/USD - 4H Forecast (Full Breakdown Linked)🔥 EUR/USD – 4H Forecast 🔥
Alright traders, here’s the 4H play for the Fiber 👇
🧠 Bias:
Short-term bearish, baby. Price just printed a Break of Structure (BOS) after a clean shift in momentum from the upside. The bulls are losing steam, and sellers are creeping back into the driver’s seat.
🧩 Technical Breakdown:
Price rejected beautifully from a 4H supply zone around 1.1750–1.1770, confirming bearish intent.
We’ve got a solid BOS and shift, setting the tone for a potential continuation leg down.
A minor pullback into the 4H zone could act as the sniper’s entry area.
Below sits a juicy imbalance and SSL (sell-side liquidity) near 1.1530–1.1560, waiting to get cleared.
🎯 Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: 1.1700–1.1740 (4H supply retest)
Target 1: 1.1580 (mid-range demand)
Target 2: 1.1440 (major liquidity pocket)
Invalidation: Above 1.1780 (if price reclaims the 4H supply, bias flips)
⚙️ Risk Management:
Stick to your plan — 1–2% risk max. Wait for confirmation candles or lower-TF rejection before diving in. No FOMO entries.
💬 Summary :
EUR/USD looks primed for a bearish continuation unless the bulls pull off a miracle reclaim. Eyes on that 4H zone — rejection there could kickstart the next drop.
EURUSD Price is back in Support for Long OpportunitiesPrice is back in a strong support zone I am seeing a potential for a 3RR and a 5RR
Eur/Usd - Support Flips Confirms Bearish Continuation EUR/USD on the 15-minute timeframe is currently maintaining a bearish market structure after confirming a Break of Structure (BOS) toward the downside. The chart clearly shows that the previous support levels have flipped into resistance zones, indicating strong selling pressure and a structural shift in market direction. Price has retested the resistance area, where sellers are likely re-entering the market to continue driving the price lower.
The formation of a minor consolidation near the retest area suggests a possible liquidity grab before continuation, giving additional confirmation for a potential downward move. As long as price stays below the resistance zones, the momentum remains bearish, and a drop toward the support target zone is expected. This move aligns with the overall bearish order flow and market structure continuation, showing that sellers are still in full control until the next demand area is reached.
EUR/USD POTENTIAL SETUPEUR/USD 1H - How we getting on guys, I thought I would provide you all with a potential set up I have for the E/U market, as you can see price has been trading us bearish for some time.
I would love to see price continue this momentum, driving us lower, but of course we need to find a valid area of interest to get involved from to ensure we have a good entry in the market.
I had an area marked out last night from the gap that was left due to the open last night, price came to clear that perfectly but in doing so it also left a key area of Supply that has been left unmitigated. I would love to see price trade back up to clear this.
Once we have a mitigation of this zone we can begin looking to take the market short, getting ourselves involved in this momentum trading us lower. Its just a case of waiting patiently for us to be delivered with relevant confirmation before we take part.
EUR/USD – H1 Technical Analysis (October 6, 2025)Market Structure
EUR/USD has been trading in a sideways consolidation after a strong bearish swing from the previous high (~1.1820). Key observations from the chart:
First consolidation box around 1.1810–1.1760 marked a temporary balance before a sharp sell-off.
Second consolidation zone at 1.1740–1.1680 shows a narrow range where buyers were unable to push price higher.
The recent break below 1.1680 signals a potential continuation of the bearish momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance Zones:
1.1740–1.1760: Upper range of current consolidation. Strong seller presence.
1.1780–1.1800: Previous swing high; potential supply if price retraces.
Support Zones:
1.1640–1.1650: Immediate support, aligns with the recent liquidity grab.
1.1600–1.1610: Next major support, coincides with prior swing lows.
1.1560–1.1570: Deeper target if bearish trend persists.
Indicators & Trendlines
EMA Cluster (20, 50, 100 H1): All EMAs trending downward, confirming bearish bias.
RSI (14 H1): Currently near 30, oversold region. Short-term retracement possible but overall downtrend remains intact.
Trendline Analysis: Descending trendline connecting recent highs confirms strong bearish structure.
Fibonacci Retracement: 50%–61.8% retracement of last bearish leg could act as minor pullback resistance.
Trading Strategy
Scenario 1 – Continuation Sell
Entry: Below 1.1660 on retest/rejection of broken support.
Stop Loss: 1.1690
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.1640
TP2: 1.1610
TP3: 1.1570
Scenario 2 – Short-term Pullback (Buy on retracement)
Entry: 1.1680–1.1700 (minor pullback zone)
Stop Loss: 1.1660
Take Profit: 1.1720–1.1740 (resistance zone)
Note: Prioritize trades in the direction of the main trend (bearish). Avoid chasing rallies against momentum.
Summary:
EUR/USD is showing a bearish continuation pattern after breaking a key consolidation zone. Watch for retests of broken support for high-probability short entries. The overall bias remains downward, with 1.1600–1.1610 as the next significant support level.
sell from supply zonePrice is bearish so i am waiting for a clean BOS to the downside and a retest at supply to target demand
EUR/USD - Bullish 2H OB Reaction | 5M continuation SetupPair: EUR/USD
Bias: Bullish
Timeframes: 2H → 5M
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HTF Overview
Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, with major highs recently broken — confirming continuation flow.
Price has now mitigated our 2H order block, aligning with overall bullish intent. From here, I’m looking for further upside continuation toward next liquidity highs.
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MTF Perspective
On the mid-timeframes, price tapped directly into our OB zone and instantly showed strong bullish momentum, signaling institutional interest.
Now it’s about staying patient and letting price dictate whether we’ll get a clean retest or a deeper mitigation before expansion.
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LTF Execution Plan
On the lower timeframe, recent internal structure has already been mitigated — price may look to retest that same level or sweep slightly lower before taking off.
Either scenario, I’m focused on targeting 5M highs and 2H continuation zones depending on market delivery.
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Mindset Note:
Don’t overthink the pullbacks — once HTF alignment and mitigation are confirmed, trust the process and execute smoothly. Reaction confirms direction; mitigation defines precision.
