Weak Pullback in EUR/USD – Is the Downtrend Still Intact?Hello everyone,
On the EUR/USD chart, price is nudging up toward the 1.1630 area after a sharp drop from 1.1850. Despite some recovery over the past few sessions, the market structure remains firmly biased toward sellers, with a series of lower highs and lower lows still intact, indicating the medium-term downtrend has not weakened.
From a technical perspective, the 1.1645–1.1670 zone is a significant resistance area, coinciding with multiple factors: an unfilled Fair Value Gap, the edge of the Ichimoku cloud acting as dynamic resistance, and a region where sellers tend to re-enter the market. Declining volume during the current upswing suggests this is more of a technical retracement rather than a genuine reversal. Conversely, the 1.1580–1.1550 zone below remains the nearest support, aligned with previous swing lows where the market previously bounced.
In my view, EUR/USD is merely pulling back to attract liquidity above before resuming the main downtrend. Buying momentum is weak, while the USD retains strength due to high US bond yields and expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious monetary policy stance.
Therefore, I am monitoring price reactions around the 1.1650–1.1670 area, where selling pressure is likely to re-emerge. If price is rejected here, EUR/USD will likely revisit 1.1580 before potentially falling further toward 1.1550, or even 1.1500–1.1470 in the medium-term scenario.
What’s your take on the current retracement – a preparatory accumulation for a reversal or just a temporary “breather” before the next leg down? Share your thoughts below!
