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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Dovish Fed May Spark EUR/USD BreakoutThe ECB hinted it may be done cutting interest rates at its latest policy meeting last week, and the market appears to believe that is the case, with no further rate cuts being priced in. Meanwhile, the Fed is about to embark on another round of rate cuts later this week, which could unleash the euro from its recent period of consolidation. Despite facing strong resistance at 1.1760, the EUR/USD has been making higher lows since early August, creating a bullish technical pattern known as an ascending triangle. Additionally, the relative strength index has started to turn higher, signalling a potential shift in momentum. A breakout appears to be in the works, and should the euro finally rally past resistance, the move could be significant. Measuring from the low on 1 August of 1.141 to resistance at 1.17, indicates that the EURUSD could rally to as high as 1.21, and potentially as high as 1.23, a level not seen since January 2021. Should the Fed come in more hawkish than expected through the Summary of Economic Projections, often referred to as the dot plot, or should Powell strike a more hawkish tone in his press conference, it could see the euro versus the dollar break below the uptrend of the ascending triangle pattern, falling towards support at 1.157. A break of that support level could then open the way for a return to the August lows at 1.141. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
by cmcmarkets
ELLIOTT WAVE EURUSD Daily update EW Trade Set Up daily minute ((i)) seems finished H4 scenario 210725: the price upward movement from 1.1557 area on 17/07/25 has broken decisively 1.1684-1.1705 area but it had not the strenght to go further so that the lagging span (green line) could break upward the leading span B (red line). A decrescent high has been registered at 1.1800 area on 24/07/25. In this new scenario it looks like that the impulsive movement that started from 1.0180 on 13/01/25 finisced at 1.1834 on 010725 in the minute wave (i). (EWO divergence, break down of the upward (ii)/(iv) channel). So i have to register that a correction to minute wave ((ii) has started key levels VP area 1.1800 1.1370 POC 1.0850 note : monitor the price reaction at any supports level: VP area and LVN
by francescoforex
1
Swing Setup: (1D+4H) POI + 5min DIVERGENCE + FVA RESPECT So I did my top down analysis, saw a 1D FVG and price respected it, so I looked for divergences and i found it on the 5min, saw price made an FVA and displaced through it so I decided it was time to enter that because a 4H and 1D FVG is a strong POI, and the fact that price did not burst through it meant it was getting respected. So I think it was at this time that I saw the FVA has formed and has been respected so I looked for an entry. For the actual entry, I think there was a small bullish FVG there above the FVA so I took that. Since price was at a 1D + 4H FVG, I considered it as the Internal Range Liquidity(IRL) and therefore targeted the External Range Liquidity (ERL). I put my SL quite far, at the bottom of this sting into the FVG. It got me 2.8RR I think, and that's good enough. I made this trade on friday, and it only resolved the next trading day, which was monday. TL;DR, 4H and above POI(IRL), once you see it getting respected (with an FVA + FVG), take it as a sign, enter without hesitation, and target the ERL.
Long
by reventioaxie
EUR/USD – 4HWithin a medium-term uptrend, new signals are emerging to support the continuation of this move. The pair rallied with strong momentum 🚀, breaking above the key level at 1.1580, which has now turned from resistance into current support, and has stabilized above it. At the same time, the pair has started forming a corrective pattern in the shape of a descending channel 📉, with the bullish outlook confirmed upon a breakout to the upside. 📊 Outlook: Continuation of the uptrend 🔑 Bullish condition: Price remains above 1.1510 🎯 Next targets: 1.1811, followed by 1.2000
by Ahmed_Morad
EURUSD Currently in a battle between trendsEURUSD Locked in a Battle Between Trends EURUSD is currently caught between two opposing structures: an ascending green trendline providing support from below, and a descending red resistance trendline capping price action from above. This squeeze highlights an imminent breakout, where the next directional push could set the tone for weeks ahead. 🔍 Technical Analysis Current price: 1.1719. Price is consolidating inside a triangle formation: Support: Ascending trendline from early August. Resistance: Descending red trendline from July highs. Above lies a major daily resistance at 1.2094, roughly 182 pips away. 🛡️ Support Zones (if pullback occurs): 🟢 1.1710 – Immediate Trendline Support Nearest defense. Losing this could trigger deeper correction. 🟡 1.1451 – 4H Support (Great Entry) Strong structural zone for bulls. Stop-loss: Below 1.1386 🔼 Resistance Levels: 🟥 1.1820 – Trendline Resistance First major cap. Break above confirms bullish momentum. 🟥 1.2094 – Daily Strong Resistance Key ceiling. Clearing this opens path toward 1.2186. 🧭 Outlook Bullish Case: Hold above 1.1710 + breakout past 1.1820 → continuation toward 1.2094 and beyond. Bearish Case: Rejection under red trendline + break below green trendline → deeper correction into 1.1451. Bias: Neutral → waiting for a clear breakout of the squeeze. 🌍 Fundamental Insight The euro’s strength has been capped by sluggish growth and ECB caution, while the USD remains volatile on rate expectations. A dovish Fed stance could lift EURUSD higher, but stronger U.S. data or dollar demand would reinforce resistance. ✅ Conclusion EURUSD is at a critical decision point, caught between opposing trendlines. Traders should watch closely for a breakout confirmation: above 1.1820 for bullish continuation, or below the green trendline for bearish correction. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
by husseindergham
EURUSD bullish breakout support at 1.1700The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1700 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1700 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1846 – initial resistance 1.1900 – psychological and structural level 1.1933 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1700 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1630 – minor support 1.1585 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1700 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadData releases: US: Key focus on August retail sales and industrial production for signs of consumer strength and manufacturing momentum. Import/export price indexes, capacity utilisation, NY Fed services survey, NAHB housing index, and July business inventories also due. UK: July average weekly earnings and unemployment rate plus August jobless claims change—important for gauging wage pressures. Japan: July Tertiary industry index. Germany/Eurozone: September ZEW surveys, July industrial production, and Q2 labour costs—insight into economic sentiment and cost pressures. Canada: August CPI (key for BoC policy outlook) and housing starts. Central banks: ECB’s Escriva speaks. Auctions: US 20-year Treasury bond sale. Market impact will hinge on US retail sales/production, UK wage data, Eurozone ZEW sentiment, and Canada CPI for central bank expectations. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Why Clear Goals Are Your Trading RoadmapWhen I first started, my only goal was to see profits. Nothing else mattered. The problem with that approach is that the goalpost kept moving. Every win felt too small, every loss felt too big, and I was stuck chasing numbers instead of building something solid. That’s when I realized goals aren’t just about money they’re about direction. Clear goals give you a roadmap. They remind you why you started, where you want to go, and what steps will get you there. Without them, every setback feels like the end of the road. With them, even losses become part of the journey, not the destination. Your goals don’t have to be huge or complicated. They just need to be yours realistic, clear, and connected to the bigger picture of the life you want to create. That is what keeps you steady when emotions run high and setbacks appear. For me, shifting from chasing profits to setting clear goals changed everything. It gave me patience, discipline, and most importantly, perspective. So ask yourself: 📌 Are my daily actions going to help me keep this skill for the long run? The answer to the question can become the roadmap to the life you truly desire.
by hlengiengwane
Bullish momentum to extend?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.1736 1st Support: 1.1678 1st Resistance: 1.1808 Oil markets on September 16, 2025, are caught between conflicting forces. While immediate supply disruption risks from Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are providing near-term price support, fundamental market conditions point to significant oversupply ahead. The EIA's projection of massive inventory builds and OPEC+'s continued production increases suggest substantial downward price pressure through 2026, with Brent potentially falling to $50 per barrel despite current geopolitical tensions. The market is essentially pricing in short-term disruption risks while bracing for longer-term oversupply challenges.
Long
by ICmarkets
Short trade Pair: EUR/USD Direction: Sellside trade Date: Monday, 15th September 2025 Session: London to New York AM (9:00 am crossover) Timeframe: 1H Trade Details Entry: 1.17666 Stop Loss: 1.17721 (0.30%) Take Profit: 1.17316 (0.05%) Risk–Reward (RR): ~1:0.16 Trade Narrative The setup is framed around the Tue 9th London high Buy-Side Liquidity Pool (BSLQ), which acted as a reference point for the short entry. Execution was aligned with the 9:00 am London to New York session crossover, a time of increased volatility and liquidity shifts.
Short
by davidjulien369
EUR/USD - Trade Idea (Forecast Linked)🕰 Weekly View Price is pushing away from major support at 1.14–1.15 and climbing into the 1.18–1.20 resistance zone. Weekly structure still favors upside momentum while support holds. 📉 Daily Structure Resistance: 1.18–1.20 strong supply. Support : 1.16–1.17 demand , with deeper discount demand sitting at 1.15–1.16. Daily price action shows liquidity being swept both sides before a push higher. ⏱ 8H Breakdown Price is reacting from unmitigated demand around 1.16–1.17. A wedge breakout is sending price toward resistance at 1.18–1.20. If rejected, look for retrace back into discount demand (1.15–1.16) before continuation. 🔎 Outlook Scenario 1 → Sweep into 1.18–1.20 supply → retrace back into 1.15–1.16 discount demand → continuation higher. Scenario 2 → Clean breakout above 1.20 accelerates toward 1.22+. Bias : Short-term reaction lower possible → mid-term bullish continuation.
Long
by jamesibartram
EUR/USD - Forecast 🕰 Weekly View Price has broken out of the long-term downtrend and is now retesting the 1.16–1.17 support zone as new structure. If this level holds, momentum favors continuation higher toward 1.20–1.22. 📉 Daily Structure Resistance: 1.18–1.20 supply zone. Support: 1.16–1.17 demand base. Daily structure shows accumulation and breakout, with price consolidating just under higher resistance. ⏱ 8H Breakdown Price has respected the wedge breakout and is holding above demand. If support at 1.16–1.17 continues to hold, expect another leg up into 1.20+ targets. Failure here reopens downside back toward 1.12–1.13 demand. 🔎 Outlook Scenario 1 → Hold above 1.16 and push into 1.20–1.22. Scenario 2 → Rejection at resistance leads to deeper correction into 1.12–1.13. Bias : Pullback into support → bullish continuation toward 1.20–1.22.
by jamesibartram
EUR/USD - Moving into Buy movements🕰 Monthly View Price is breaking out of the major support/resistance zone around 1.18–1.20 after years of compression. Historically, this level has acted as a turning point, and now momentum favors the upside. MACD confirms strength with a bullish cross, pointing to continuation. 📉 Weekly Structure Resistance: Cleared at 1.20, room to expand higher. Support: 1.10–1.12 base holds as long-term demand. Macro structure now looks like a sustained breakout phase. ⏱ Daily / Lower-Timeframe Perspective Price has been steadily pressing higher without significant supply above. The clean breakout above 1.18 suggests little resistance until much higher levels, leaving upside open. 🔎 Outlook Bullish momentum dominates. As long as price holds above 1.18, continuation toward 1.30+ becomes likely. MACD divergence that held the downside has now shifted, fueling the upside breakout. Bias : Strong bullish continuation → mid-to-long term upside toward 1.30+.
Long
by jamesibartram
Let me tell you where the important support and resistance are.Hello friends Given the positive price trend last week, we see that the closer the trend approaches its important resistances, the weaker it becomes, and the more likely the price will correct from these resistances. If the price corrects from the specified resistances, the price can move to the specified targets, and we also have a good support area below that we expect buyers to support. *Trade safely with us*
Short
by TheHunters_Company
1