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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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#EURUSD (H4 & D1) – Trend Retest and Potential Wave 3 Formation#EURUSD (H4 & D1) – Trend Retest and Potential Wave 3 Formation Current price: 1.1631 The euro is showing signs of a bullish continuation, with price testing the trendline support on H4 and setting up for a potential third-wave expansion. The same impulse structure is visible on the daily chart, suggesting multi-timeframe alignment. 🧩 Technical Overview (H4) • Price successfully retested the ascending trendline, confirming short-term structural support near 1.1580–1.1600. • The current recovery move is developing into a third impulsive leg after completing a corrective pullback. • The structure remains bullish as long as the market stays above the previous swing low. 📈 Scenario • Stop-loss: below the prior swing low at 1.1579 (wave 1 base). • Upside objectives: – 1.1755–1.1765 — first confirmation zone – 1.1840–1.1850 — key extension target (1.618 Fib projection) – 1.1910–1.1920 — extended cycle target (2.0 projection) – 1.2020 — potential completion of wave sequence • A breakout above 1.1650–1.1670 would confirm the start of the next bullish leg. ⚙️ Market Context (D1) • On the daily timeframe, price is forming a larger potential wave 3, aligning with the bullish H4 impulse. • The broader trendline from mid-summer lows continues to hold as structural support. • The setup reflects early signs of euro strength amid easing USD momentum. 🧭 Summary EUR/USD remains in a constructive technical position, consolidating before a potential impulsive breakout. • While above 1.1579, bias stays bullish, targeting 1.1755 → 1.1845 → 1.1915. • A close above 1.1650 would confirm bullish acceleration, while a drop below 1.1579 would invalidate the setup.
Long
by NewOneCrypto
EURUSD shortso from my previous trade my bias still remain bearish. i know most of trader are looking forward to buy but for the mean time am still anticipating bears are still dominating the trend because of one strong reason and few supporting reasons; 1. The bulls that entered in the market have not closed above the defensive bearish candle in daily timeframe NB: Defensive candle is the last candle of the certain direction. 2. H4 we can see the price is not closing above certain price till the last candle of the week. what are we waiting 1. we are waiting the break of lows on the H4 time frame the we confirm the market is bearish OR we wait for the price to close above the defensive daily candle to confirm bullish Patience is the key
Short
by itskingu
Global Trade and Its Impact on Currency ShiftsIntroduction In the complex web of global economics, trade and currency movements are inseparably linked. The value of a nation’s currency is not determined in isolation but reflects the balance of its trade relationships, capital flows, and macroeconomic conditions. Global trade—comprising exports, imports, and cross-border investments—plays a crucial role in determining currency demand and supply. When trade flows shift due to policy changes, geopolitical developments, or technological advancements, they often trigger corresponding movements in currency values. This essay explores how global trade impacts currency shifts by examining trade balances, exchange rate mechanisms, capital flows, commodity cycles, and geopolitical factors. It also delves into how trade-driven currency shifts affect economies, businesses, and global financial stability. 1. The Link Between Trade and Currency Value At its core, global trade affects currency through demand and supply dynamics. When a country exports goods or services, foreign buyers must purchase its currency to pay for those exports. This increases demand for the exporter’s currency, leading to appreciation. Conversely, when a country imports more than it exports, it must convert its currency to buy foreign goods, increasing the supply of its currency in global markets and potentially leading to depreciation. For example, when global demand for German automobiles or Japanese electronics rises, the euro and yen often strengthen because international buyers must acquire those currencies to pay for imports. Similarly, when the United States runs persistent trade deficits, the U.S. dollar experiences downward pressure—although it often remains strong due to its status as the world’s reserve currency. In short, trade balances—exports minus imports—directly influence currency demand and valuation. 2. Trade Balances and Exchange Rates A nation’s current account balance is a key determinant of long-term exchange rate movements. The current account includes trade in goods and services, net income from abroad, and net transfer payments. A trade surplus indicates more exports than imports, leading to net foreign currency inflows and upward pressure on the domestic currency. A trade deficit has the opposite effect. Example: The U.S. Dollar and Trade Deficit Despite running consistent trade deficits, the U.S. dollar remains relatively strong due to high global demand for U.S. assets, Treasury securities, and the dollar’s dominance in international trade settlements. However, persistent deficits can create structural vulnerabilities, particularly if foreign investors lose confidence in U.S. fiscal sustainability. Example: China’s Trade Surplus and Yuan Stability China’s consistent trade surpluses, driven by its manufacturing exports, have historically supported the yuan (renminbi). Although China manages its currency through capital controls and intervention, its export-led model generates strong foreign exchange inflows that support currency stability. Thus, trade balances serve as a key long-term anchor for currency valuation, even as short-term movements may be driven by speculation and interest rate differentials. 3. Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade Impacts Exchange rate systems also shape how global trade affects currencies. Broadly, exchange rate regimes can be divided into floating, fixed, and managed float systems. Floating Exchange Rates (e.g., U.S., U.K., Japan): Market forces of supply and demand determine currency value. Trade imbalances quickly translate into currency shifts. Fixed Exchange Rates (e.g., Gulf nations pegged to USD): Governments or central banks maintain a fixed value against another currency. Trade impacts are mitigated through central bank intervention. Managed Float (e.g., China, India): Authorities allow market forces some role but intervene periodically to stabilize the currency. In floating systems, an increase in exports strengthens the currency, which can eventually make exports less competitive—a self-correcting mechanism. In contrast, countries with fixed exchange rates must adjust through monetary or fiscal policy rather than currency depreciation. 4. Capital Flows and Trade-Linked Currency Movements Global trade and capital flows are two sides of the same coin. A country running a trade surplus typically becomes a net lender to the rest of the world, investing its excess savings abroad. Conversely, a trade-deficit country must borrow or attract capital inflows to finance its deficit. This dynamic influences currency movements through the financial account of the balance of payments. For instance: If a country imports more than it exports, but foreign investors purchase its bonds, equities, or real estate, the inflow of foreign capital can offset currency depreciation. However, if capital inflows dry up due to political or economic instability, the currency can weaken sharply, as seen during the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998), when several Southeast Asian currencies collapsed following rapid capital flight. Therefore, trade imbalances often lead to corresponding capital flow adjustments that can amplify or counteract currency shifts. 5. Commodity Prices and Terms of Trade Commodity-dependent economies are highly sensitive to global trade trends and price cycles. When the prices of key exports—like oil, metals, or agricultural goods—rise, commodity exporters’ currencies appreciate, while importers’ currencies depreciate. Case Study: The “Petro-Currency” Effect Currencies of oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Canada tend to strengthen when oil prices rise because global buyers must purchase their currencies to pay for energy imports. Conversely, when oil prices fall, these currencies often weaken, reflecting reduced export revenues. Terms of Trade (ToT) The terms of trade—the ratio of export prices to import prices—also affect currency value. An improvement in ToT means a country can purchase more imports for the same amount of exports, increasing demand for its currency. For instance, Australia’s dollar (AUD) tends to appreciate when global iron ore and coal prices rise, improving its ToT. 6. Trade Policies and Tariffs Trade policies, tariffs, and trade agreements directly influence currency movements. When countries impose tariffs, restrict imports, or provide export subsidies, they alter trade flows and thereby currency demand. Protectionist measures can strengthen domestic currency temporarily if they reduce imports, but over time they may harm competitiveness and productivity, leading to depreciation. Free trade agreements (FTAs) can stimulate exports and foreign investment, strengthening the domestic currency. For example, the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) increased trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, supporting the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar through higher trade inflows. 7. Geopolitical Events and Global Supply Chains Geopolitical tensions—wars, sanctions, or trade conflicts—often disrupt global trade flows and cause currency volatility. Trade sanctions can restrict export markets, reduce foreign currency inflows, and weaken affected nations’ currencies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022–) provides a striking example. Western sanctions reduced Russian exports to Europe, weakening the ruble temporarily, though capital controls later stabilized it. Meanwhile, European currencies like the euro were pressured by surging energy import costs. The COVID-19 pandemic also exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Trade disruptions caused sharp fluctuations in currencies, particularly in emerging markets dependent on exports of manufactured goods or commodities. 8. The Role of Trade Deficits and Surpluses in Global Imbalances Persistent trade surpluses and deficits create global financial imbalances that can drive long-term currency misalignments. Countries like China, Germany, and Japan often run large surpluses, accumulating foreign reserves and exporting capital. The U.S., on the other hand, runs chronic deficits financed by foreign investment in U.S. assets. These imbalances influence global currency trends: Surplus countries accumulate foreign exchange reserves, often investing them in U.S. Treasury bonds, which supports the dollar. Deficit countries face currency depreciation risks if investor confidence wanes. Efforts to rebalance global trade, such as by encouraging domestic consumption in surplus countries or reducing dependence on imports in deficit nations, are central to achieving currency equilibrium. 9. Central Bank Intervention and Trade Dynamics Central banks often intervene in currency markets to stabilize exchange rates and protect trade competitiveness. For example: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) actively manages the yuan to maintain export competitiveness. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has intervened to prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which could hurt exports. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) frequently monitors the yen’s strength, as a strong yen can undermine Japan’s export-led economy. Such interventions can take the form of buying/selling foreign currency reserves, adjusting interest rates, or implementing capital controls. However, excessive intervention can attract criticism of “currency manipulation,” as seen in U.S.-China trade tensions during the 2010s. 10. The Dollar’s Dominance and Global Trade The U.S. dollar’s dominance in international trade settlements has a unique impact on global currency dynamics. Most commodities, including oil and gold, are priced in dollars, creating constant global demand for USD regardless of America’s trade balance. This “exorbitant privilege” allows the U.S. to run persistent deficits while maintaining a strong currency. However, as more nations explore de-dollarization—conducting trade in local or regional currencies—the long-term structure of global currency demand could shift. Emerging blocs like BRICS are actively exploring alternatives to the dollar, which, if realized, could lead to a more multipolar currency system and alter global trade-currency relationships. 11. Technological and Structural Shifts in Trade Technological advancements, such as digital trade, automation, and supply chain diversification, also influence currency trends. For instance: Digital trade platforms reduce transaction costs, increasing global capital mobility and influencing forex markets. Reshoring and nearshoring production—seen after COVID-19—alter traditional trade balances, thereby impacting currencies. E-commerce exports by small and medium enterprises are increasing foreign exchange inflows in emerging economies. Moreover, innovations like blockchain and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could reshape how global trade is settled, potentially reducing dependence on traditional reserve currencies and changing how trade flows affect exchange rates. 12. Long-Term Implications of Trade-Driven Currency Shifts Global trade’s influence on currency shifts extends far beyond financial markets—it affects inflation, employment, investment, and overall economic stability. Currency Appreciation: Makes imports cheaper, reducing inflation but potentially harming export competitiveness. Currency Depreciation: Boosts exports but raises import costs, potentially fueling inflation. Volatility: Frequent currency fluctuations can complicate long-term business planning, investment decisions, and government policy-making. Therefore, nations strive for a balanced trade and exchange rate policy—neither excessive appreciation nor chronic depreciation—to maintain competitiveness and price stability. Conclusion Global trade remains one of the most powerful forces shaping currency values. Trade balances, commodity cycles, capital flows, and geopolitical developments all contribute to how currencies move in global markets. A country’s ability to manage these forces—through prudent macroeconomic policies, diversified trade relationships, and stable political governance—determines its currency’s resilience. As globalization evolves and new trade patterns emerge, currency dynamics will continue to adapt. The rise of regional trade blocs, digital currencies, and de-dollarization movements may gradually reshape how global trade impacts currencies in the 21st century. Yet, the fundamental principle remains unchanged: trade is the lifeblood of currency demand, and currency shifts are the mirror reflection of a nation’s position in the global economic system.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
Forex Reserves Impact on TradingIntroduction Foreign exchange reserves, commonly known as forex reserves, are a nation’s holdings of foreign currencies and other reserve assets maintained by its central bank. These reserves play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability, influencing exchange rate movements, and shaping the trading environment for both domestic and international investors. In today’s globalized economy, the magnitude and management of a country’s forex reserves can directly impact trade dynamics, currency valuation, investor confidence, and overall market liquidity. Forex reserves act as the financial backbone of a nation, providing a buffer against external shocks and ensuring smooth functioning of international trade. Their impact on trading—whether in goods, currencies, or capital markets—is profound and multifaceted. To understand their true significance, one must analyze the composition, functions, and strategic management of forex reserves, and how they shape economic policy and market behavior. 1. Understanding Forex Reserves Definition: Forex reserves are assets held by a central bank in foreign currencies, used primarily to back liabilities and influence monetary policy. These reserves usually comprise foreign banknotes, deposits, bonds, treasury bills, gold, and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Composition of Forex Reserves: Foreign Currency Assets (FCA): The largest component, often held in USD, EUR, GBP, or JPY. Gold Reserves: Serve as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation. SDRs (Special Drawing Rights): International reserve assets allocated by the IMF. Reserve Tranche Position (RTP): The portion of a country’s quota in the IMF that it can access without conditions. For instance, as of 2025, countries like China, India, Japan, and Switzerland hold significant forex reserves, influencing not just their domestic trade stability but also global market trends. 2. Objectives of Maintaining Forex Reserves Central banks hold forex reserves for several key reasons: Stabilizing the Currency: Reserves are used to control excessive volatility in the exchange rate by buying or selling foreign currency in the market. Meeting Balance of Payments (BoP) Needs: Reserves ensure that a country can meet its international payment obligations without disrupting trade flows. Boosting Investor Confidence: Large reserves signal a country’s ability to handle economic shocks, thereby attracting foreign investment. Supporting Imports: Forex reserves cover essential imports like oil, food, and machinery during crises or capital outflows. Debt Servicing: Countries use reserves to repay foreign loans and interest, ensuring sovereign creditworthiness. Crisis Management: During times of financial or geopolitical stress, reserves act as an insurance mechanism, maintaining trade stability. 3. Link Between Forex Reserves and Trade Forex reserves influence trade in several direct and indirect ways: a. Exchange Rate Stability One of the most immediate impacts of forex reserves on trading is their role in stabilizing the exchange rate. A stable currency enhances export competitiveness and ensures predictability for importers and exporters. High reserves give the central bank the power to defend its currency against speculative attacks, preventing rapid depreciation. Low reserves may lead to currency volatility, increasing uncertainty for international traders. For example, during the 2013 “taper tantrum,” India’s forex reserves helped the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) manage the rupee’s fall against the U.S. dollar, ensuring smoother trade operations. b. Trade Competitiveness A country with adequate reserves can maintain favorable exchange rate conditions to support its exporters. By managing currency appreciation, the central bank can ensure that domestic products remain competitive in global markets. Conversely, countries with low reserves may face currency depreciation, increasing the cost of imports and disrupting supply chains. c. Import Cover and Payment Security Forex reserves determine a nation’s ability to pay for imports during economic downturns. The term “import cover” measures how many months of imports can be covered by reserves. A healthy import cover (usually 8–10 months) ensures uninterrupted trade even during crises. This is especially critical for countries heavily dependent on imported energy or raw materials. d. Trade Financing and Confidence Strong reserves improve a country’s creditworthiness, enabling banks and businesses to obtain cheaper foreign financing. This lowers trade financing costs and promotes export-oriented growth. 4. Impact on the Currency and Forex Market Forex reserves play a dominant role in shaping currency trading and speculation in the forex market. a. Currency Appreciation or Depreciation When a country’s central bank sells foreign currency from its reserves to buy domestic currency, it creates upward pressure on the local currency (appreciation). When it buys foreign currency, it increases supply of local currency, leading to depreciation. Such interventions are critical in managing the value of the currency to align with trade objectives. b. Speculative Trading and Market Sentiment Traders closely monitor changes in forex reserves as an indicator of future policy action. Increasing reserves often signal capital inflows and strong fundamentals, boosting investor sentiment. Falling reserves may indicate possible currency weakness or economic stress, leading to speculative short positions in the currency. Thus, forex reserves indirectly shape forex trading patterns, risk perceptions, and hedging strategies among institutional traders. c. Volatility Management High reserves allow a central bank to intervene effectively during extreme volatility in the currency market. This reassures investors and businesses that the country can maintain market order—reducing panic trading or speculative attacks on the domestic currency. 5. Influence on Domestic and Global Trade Dynamics a. Domestic Trade and Investment Forex reserves affect domestic interest rates, inflation, and liquidity—all of which influence local trading conditions. For instance, when central banks accumulate reserves by buying foreign currency, they inject domestic liquidity, which can lower interest rates and stimulate investment. However, excessive liquidity may cause inflation or asset bubbles if not managed carefully. b. Global Trade Relationships Countries with large reserves often gain stronger negotiating positions in global trade forums. They can offer trade credits, fund bilateral projects, or extend currency swap lines, enhancing their influence in international trade relations. For example, China’s massive forex reserves have allowed it to promote the yuan in global transactions and fund infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, indirectly shaping global trade flows. 6. Forex Reserves and Stock Market Trading The level and trend of forex reserves also affect stock market trading in several ways: Investor Confidence: Rising reserves reflect macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign portfolio investment (FPI) into equity markets. Currency Risk Mitigation: Stable reserves mean lower currency risk, encouraging foreign investors to hold domestic assets. Liquidity Flows: Central bank actions to accumulate or utilize reserves can influence domestic liquidity, impacting stock valuations and trading volumes. Market Correlation: Historically, stock market indices in emerging economies like India and Brazil show positive correlation with rising forex reserves, as both signify strong capital inflows and growth prospects. 7. Case Studies a. China China holds the world’s largest forex reserves—over $3 trillion—primarily to maintain yuan stability and support export competitiveness. Its large reserves have allowed the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to manage exchange rates tightly, ensuring predictable trade conditions and global supply chain dominance. b. India India’s forex reserves surpassed $650 billion in 2024, providing an import cover of over 10 months. This robust buffer has shielded the Indian rupee from global shocks, such as oil price volatility or geopolitical tensions, supporting steady trade growth and stable investor sentiment. c. Russia In 2022, Russia’s large reserves helped it initially resist Western sanctions, but the freezing of reserves held abroad revealed the geopolitical vulnerability of such assets. It underscored the importance of diversification and gold holdings within reserve management. 8. Risks and Challenges in Managing Forex Reserves While high reserves offer stability, they also come with certain challenges: Opportunity Cost: Investing in low-yield foreign assets like U.S. Treasuries offers limited returns compared to potential domestic investments. Exchange Rate Risk: Changes in the value of reserve currencies (like the dollar or euro) can cause valuation losses. Sterilization Costs: To neutralize inflationary effects of reserve accumulation, central banks often conduct sterilization operations, which can be costly. Geopolitical Risks: Holding reserves in foreign countries exposes them to political or sanction risks, as seen in recent global conflicts. Liquidity vs. Return Trade-off: Central banks must balance between maintaining highly liquid assets and earning sufficient returns from their reserves. 9. The Future of Forex Reserves and Global Trading In the evolving digital and geopolitical landscape, the nature and impact of forex reserves are changing rapidly: Shift Toward Diversification: Central banks are diversifying away from the U.S. dollar toward the euro, yen, and gold to reduce dependency risks. Role of Digital Currencies: The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) may alter how countries manage and deploy reserves in cross-border transactions. Strategic Reserves for Energy and Technology: Beyond currencies and gold, some nations are considering “strategic reserves” of essential commodities and technologies to ensure trade resilience. Climate and ESG Considerations: Reserves may increasingly be managed with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles in mind, influencing sustainable investment flows. Conclusion Forex reserves serve as the cornerstone of a nation’s economic and financial stability. Their role in influencing trade—both directly through currency stability and indirectly through investor confidence—is undeniable. Adequate reserves not only enable smooth import-export operations but also protect the economy from external shocks, currency crises, and global volatility. For traders and investors, forex reserves act as a barometer of macroeconomic health. A rising reserve position signals strength, stability, and confidence, while a falling one warns of potential risks in the trade and capital markets. In a globalized trading environment where currency values, capital flows, and policy decisions are deeply interconnected, the management of forex reserves remains a central pillar of economic strategy. Ultimately, the efficient accumulation, diversification, and utilization of these reserves determine a nation’s ability to sustain trade growth, maintain currency credibility, and foster long-term economic prosperity.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: INTRADAY & SWING TRADE SETUP 📊 EURUSD (1.16272) - COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: INTRADAY & SWING TRADE SETUP 📊 October 27-31, 2025 | Multiple Timeframe Deep Dive 🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 🎯 Current Spot: 1.16272 | Analysis Date: Oct 25, 2025 | Focus: 5M-1D Timeframes | Strategy: Intraday & Swing Trade ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 1. MULTI-TIMEFRAME TREND ANALYSIS & DOW THEORY APPLICATION 📈 🔍 Daily (1D) Timeframe - Primary Trend Direction The 1D chart reveals a consolidation phase with bullish bias . Elliott Wave structure suggests we're completing a 5th wave extension after a 4-wave correction. Dow Theory confirms higher lows forming around 1.1580-1.1600 support levels. The uptrend remains intact with RSI hovering in 40-60 zone (neutral-bullish). VWAP at 1.1620 acts as dynamic support. ⏰ 4H Timeframe - Swing Trade Entry Signals The 4H setup shows bullish flag formation near 1.1625. Bollinger Bands are tightening, signaling potential breakout. RSI at 55-60 indicates strength without overbought conditions. Ichimoku Cloud shows bullish alignment with price above all moving averages. Target: 1.1680-1.1720 for swing positions. 🔥 1H to 5M Intraday Confluence 1H chart displays ascending triangle pattern with resistance at 1.1650. Harmonic patterns suggest Bullish Gartley forming near 1.1580 level—ideal for aggressive intraday entries. 30M shows clean EMA crossover (50>200 EMA bullish). Volume profile confirms institutional accumulation between 1.1590-1.1620. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎪 2. ENTRY & EXIT STRATEGY + WYCKOFF METHOD 🎪 SWING TRADE ENTRIES (4H/1D): Buy breakout above 1.1650 with stop @ 1.1580 (Risk:Reward 1:3). Wyckoff Spring Pattern validation near support confirms institutional absorption. INTRADAY ENTRIES (5M-30M): Enter on 30M EMA crossovers + RSI < 30 rejections from support zones. Stochastic divergence on 15M indicates pullback entries around 1.1610-1.1615. EXIT TARGETS: 1D: 1.1750 | 4H: 1.1705 | 1H: 1.1670 | Intraday: 1.1650 (first profit). Take-profit at resistance clusters identified via Gann angles. STOP LOSS PLACEMENT: Swing: 1.1560 (below double bottom structure) | Intraday: 1.1600 (15-20 pips from entry). 💡 Pro Tip: Use Ichimoku Kijun-sen (26P) as dynamic stop—trail on breakouts above 1.1650. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔔 3. REVERSAL SIGNALS & JAPANESE CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS 🔔 ⚠️ BULLISH REVERSAL INDICATORS: Hammer candlesticks forming at 1.1580 (5M/15M confluence). Engulfing patterns on 30M confirm buyer strength. Ichimoku Chikou Span crossing above price action validates trend reversal completion. Morning Star pattern visible on 1H—classic reversal signal. ⛔ BEARISH REVERSAL WARNINGS: If price fails to break 1.1650 with declining volume, watch for Evening Star on 4H. Gann resistance at 1.1680 acts as rejection zone. RSI divergence (lower highs with price higher highs) on 1D would signal exhaustion. VWAP rejection could trigger short setups. ⚡ Key Level: 1.1645-1.1650 acts as Decision Point. Break = Bullish Continuation | Reject = Intraday Reversal ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💥 4. BREAKOUT RECOGNITION & PATTERN FORMATIONS 💥 ✅ Bullish Breakout Setup (PRIMARY): Ascending triangle breakout above 1.1650 resistance on 1H timeframe. Volume confirmation: need 20%+ volume spike above 20-period MA. Elliott Wave target 1.1750-1.1800 after 5th wave completion. Bollinger Band upper band at 1.1680—natural extension target. 🚀 Harmonic Patterns Identified: Bullish Gartley at 1.1580 (D-point) with PRZ 1.1605-1.1620. Bat pattern on 4H suggesting potential for 161.8% extension. Butterfly pattern on 1D targeting 1.1850 in extended bull scenario. ⚡ Risk Pattern - Rising Wedge (WARNING): If price fails breakout, 4H shows rising wedge trap. Potential bearish breakdown to 1.1550 if wedge collapses. Monitor Bollinger Band squeeze on 30M—breakout imminent within 48 hours. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 5. VOLATILITY, PRICE ACTION & INDICATOR CONFLUENCE 📊 🌊 Bollinger Bands & Volatility Analysis: Band width compressed to 150 pips (1D)—lowest in 10 days. This signals imminent volatility expansion. Intraday (5M/15M) bands widening, indicating increased participation. Price bouncing within middle band suggests continuation pattern. 📍 Support & Resistance Clusters: SUPPORT: 1.1600 (Previous swing low) | 1.1580 (Gartley D-point) | 1.1560 (Double Bottom) RESISTANCE: 1.1650 (Ascending Triangle apex) | 1.1680 (Bollinger upper + Gann angle) | 1.1720 (Weekly pivot) VWAP LEVELS: Daily VWAP: 1.1620 (support) | Weekly VWAP: 1.1610 (support) 📈 Moving Average Crossovers - Trend Confirmation: EMA 50 > EMA 200 (bullish alignment on all timeframes). SMA 20 above SMA 50 on 1H/4H = buy signal. 5M: Recent EMA crossover indicates intraday uptrend initiation. Price maintaining above all key MAs confirms Wyckoff accumulation completion. 🎯 Overbought/Oversold Conditions: RSI: Currently 58-62 range (neutral-bullish, NOT overbought). Stochastic on 15M: 45-55 range with upside momentum. Ichimoku RSI indicator below 50—room for upside run. CCI on 5M near +100 (strong momentum without extreme overbought). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎓 6. ADVANCED TECHNICAL THEORIES SYNTHESIS 🎓 ⭐ Elliott Wave Structure: 5-3-5 Pattern Complete - Currently Wave 1 (up) of new cycle targeting 1.1800 minimum | Fibonacci Extensions: 161.8% from swing = 1.1750 ⭐ Gann Theory Application: 45-degree angle resistance @ 1.1680 | Square of Nine support @ 1.1580 | Time-Price analysis: 8-10 trading days for major move completion ⭐ Wyckoff Method: Spring Pattern (successful test of support) = Bullish signal | Schiff accumulation phase ending | Expected markup phase: 1.1650-1.1750 (next 7-10 days) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✨ TRADING PLAN SUMMARY ✨ 🎯 LONG BIAS (PRIMARY SCENARIO): Entry: 1.1645-1.1650 breakout | Stop: 1.1605 | Target 1: 1.1680 | Target 2: 1.1720 | Target 3: 1.1750 Risk/Reward: 1:3+ | Conviction: 75% | Timeframe: Swing (Hold 3-5 days) + Intraday scalp (1-4 hours) ⚠️ SHORT SCENARIO (CONTINGENCY): Trigger: Rejection at 1.1650 + Volume decline | Entry: 1.1635 | Stop: 1.1655 | Target: 1.1600 Probability: 25% | Setup: Rising Wedge breakdown ⏱️ TIMEFRAME PRIORITY: 4H (swing base) + 1H (entry confirmation) + 5M (execution) 💰 POSITION SIZING: Risk max 1-2% per trade | Scaling in on pullbacks 🔔 ALERTS: Set at 1.1650 (buy signal) | 1.1605 (stop loss) | 1.1680 (partial profit) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Disclaimer: Educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management. Past performance ≠ future results.
by sunya
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the previous trading session, the Eurodollar market exhibited significant fluctuations between the critical Mean Resistance level of 1.165 and the Mean Support level of 1.159, with the current price oscillating between the two levels. Market sentiment suggests the prevailing Active Inner Decline trend will continue. The ongoing market perspective continues to anticipate a price decrease toward the initial support level, indicated by Mean Support at 1.159, followed by secondary support at 1.155 and the Inner Currency Dip at 1.151. If this downward trajectory continues, it could extend further to the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145, alongside the Key Support level of 1.140. Moreover, it is crucial to remain mindful of the potential emergence of an Active Inner Rebound at the Mean Support of 1.159, which may prompt a subsequent move toward the Mean Resistance of 1.165. Additionally, an Auxiliary Inner Rebound following the Outer Currency Dip at 1.145, in conjunction with the Key Support level of 1.140, will represent alternative rebound thresholds for the currency, along with the Mean Support at 1.155 situated above these levels.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD 2H | SMC + Elliott WaveKeeping it simple 💚 This chart blends Smart Money Concept with Elliott Wave structure to show how institutional zones align with wave corrections. Currently expecting price to tap the 1.164–1.171 zone (seller’s area) before a possible wave 5 decline toward 1.150. No signals — pure analysis to educate and share thought process 📚 Stay patient, follow structure, not emotions ⚡ #Forex #EURUSD #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #ForexEducation #PriceAction
Short
by Greenfireforex
1
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 24 October 2025- EURUSD reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1740 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support area between the strong support level 1.1570 (which has been reversing the price from August), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily up channel from July. The upward reversal form this support zone stopped the previous minor correction 2 of the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of October. Given the clear daily uptrend and the strong euro sentiment, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.1740 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).
Long
by FxPro
Sharing my personal 1H outlook for EURUSD 🧠 What's Happening: Price has been pulling back from the top near 1.173, and now it’s entering a critical Fibonacci reversal zone. We’re currently sitting just under the 0.5–0.618 fib zone — my key area for a potential bullish reversal. 📌 Reversal Zone: 🔹 1.1589 (0.5 level) 🔹 1.1566 (0.618 level / Deep Zone start) I’m watching this zone closely for bullish reaction signs (like structure shift, major breakout).
Long
by ClearTradingMind
The Day Ahead - upside CPI surprises?Markets today will be focused on a heavy data slate and key central bank commentary, with attention centred on global flash PMIs and US inflation data, both of which could influence near-term rate expectations. Key data highlights: Global: October flash PMIs will provide the first look at business activity trends amid signs of slowing global momentum. US: September CPI and Kansas City Fed services activity will be closely watched for confirmation of easing inflationary pressures and the health of the services sector. UK: A busy morning with October GfK consumer confidence and September retail sales, both giving insight into the impact of high borrowing costs on consumers. Japan: September national CPI may test expectations that the BoJ will stay cautious on tightening. Europe: France’s consumer confidence and Sweden’s PPI add to the regional inflation picture. Central banks: ECB’s Nagel, Cipollone, and Villeroy are all scheduled to speak, and their tone could offer further clues about how long policy will stay restrictive given weak activity data. Corporate earnings: Another big day in earnings, with Procter & Gamble, Sanofi, NatWest, and Porsche reporting. Investors will look for commentary on margins and consumer demand as inflation cools. Other developments: Moody’s will review France’s credit rating, a potential risk event given recent fiscal slippage. Ireland’s presidential election takes place, though market impact is likely limited. Market outlook: With so many key data releases and earnings updates, volatility could pick up. Traders will be looking for signs of cooling inflation but resilient activity to sustain the recent equity rebound, while bond markets remain sensitive to any upside CPI surprises. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
Global IPO trends and SME listings1. Macro picture: why IPOs dipped and why they’re coming back From the 2021 frenzy to the 2022–2024 slowdown, three macro forces depressed IPO supply: rising interest rates, equity market volatility, and geopolitical policy shocks (trade/tariff announcements, sanctions, etc.). Those same variables determine the timing and size of any recovery: when volatility eases and public valuations become predictable, IPO windows reopen. By H1–Q3 2025 many markets recorded year-on-year increases in IPO counts and proceeds compared with 2024, signalling a cautious but visible rebound in investor risk appetite and issuer confidence. Major advisory firms reported a stronger pipeline and bigger average deal sizes in 2025 versus the trough. Key takeaways: Market sentiment and index performance remain the gating factor. When broader indices are stable or rising, companies and underwriters are more willing to price primary offerings. Policy shocks (tariffs, regulation) can cause abrupt freezes—as seen in mid-2025 in some reporting—so recovery is patchy and regionally uneven. 2. Regional patterns — Americas, Europe, Asia Americas (US/Canada): The U.S. market led global deals by proceeds in 2025’s first half, helped by both traditional IPOs and a revival of SPACs. Institutional appetite for high-quality growth names returned gradually; Nasdaq and NYSE regained traction for tech and fintech issuers. PwC and market banks flagged strong H1 2025 proceeds in the Americas, albeit with SPACs making up a significant portion. Europe: Activity recovered more slowly but steadily. European exchanges and advisors pointed to unused capacity—investor demand exists but issuers and banks are selective about timing and valuation. Several jurisdictions enhanced SME support programs and pre-IPO education to stimulate listings. Asia-Pacific: The region showed resilience and, in parts, growth—China and Japan saw notable listings and larger offerings. India’s domestic platforms recorded strong SME listing activity (see below). Overall, regulatory facilitation and local investor depth helped Asia outperform other regions in some periods. 3. The SPAC story: back — but different After the 2020–2021 SPAC boom and the 2022–2024 cooling (regulatory scrutiny and poor post-deSPAC performance), 2025 brought a measured SPAC reappearance. Sponsors and investors are more disciplined: fewer overly ambitious valuations, more sponsor skin in the game, and clearer disclosure/earnout structures. SPACs accounted for a materially higher share of listings in early-to-mid 2025 versus 2024, but they are operating with tighter governance and (in many cases) better alignment with private equity and institutional exit strategies. Analysts expect SPACs to feature as one option among many for sponsor exits rather than the overwhelmingly dominant vehicle they once were. 4. SME listings — scale, purpose and platforms SME listing platforms have evolved from niche curiosities into mainstream capital-raising mechanisms for smaller growth companies. Exchanges tailor admission rules, disclosure requirements, and investor education for SMEs to balance access to capital with investor protection. Why SMEs list? Access to growth capital, brand visibility, liquidity for founders, and the ability to use publicly traded equity for M&A and employee incentives. Popular SME venues: Euronext Growth (continental Europe), London AIM (though AIM’s structure is different), NSE Emerge and BSE SME (India), TSX Venture (Canada) and various regional growth boards. Exchanges increasingly offer pre-IPO programs and index inclusion to attract issuers. Euronext explicitly markets tailored listing journeys and investor pools for SMEs. India as a case study: India’s SME markets (BSE SME, NSE Emerge) saw large volumes of small listings and notable capital raised historically; BSE’s SME crossing 600 listings and significant funds raised shows the scale and appetite for this route. Local retail and HNI investors play a disproportionate role in IPO allocations on SME boards, and many SMEs use these markets as stepping stones to main exchanges. However, regulators and exchanges warn about uneven due diligence standards and the need for investor education. 5. Structural features and investor behaviour in SME markets Lower entry thresholds and lighter continuing obligations make SME boards attractive, but they also increase information asymmetry. Investor mix: Retail and domestic institutional investors dominate many SME markets; that makes them sensitive to local sentiment and sometimes less correlated with global capital flows. Price volatility & illiquidity: Many SME listings experience high initial pops or post-listing declines; long-term liquidity and governance can be variable. This means SME investing requires more focused research and risk tolerance. Graduation pathway: Exchanges promote “graduation” from SME boards to the main market—this pathway creates an investment narrative (list, scale, graduate) that attracts some growth companies. 6. Regulatory & policy shifts affecting listing dynamics Regulators in multiple regions have been balancing two objectives: broaden access to public capital for growth firms while protecting retail and unsophisticated investors. Typical policy moves include: Strengthening disclosure and minimum corporate governance standards for SME boards. Running pre-IPO education programs for management teams and investors (exchanges like Euronext emphasize educational support). Closer monitoring of sponsor and promoter actions (especially after SPAC turbulence). Incentives—tax or listing cost reductions—to encourage listings or relistings in domestic markets. 7. Challenges and risks (global & SME-specific) Macro sensitivity: IPO pipelines can re-freeze quickly if interest rates or geopolitical tensions spike. (Mid-2025 tariff headlines illustrated this risk.) Valuation gap: Private markets still sometimes price growth more richly than public markets will tolerate, delaying exits. Post-IPO performance: A significant portion of IPO underperformance stems from immature governance, overly optimistic forecasting, or market rotation away from growth. SME risk profile: SME boards have higher issuer-specific risk (concentration of promoter ownership, limited operating history). Robust disclosure and investor due diligence are essential. 8. Practical implications for stakeholders For issuers (SMEs & midcaps): A public listing remains a credible route to scale. Plan the listing only when financials and governance can withstand scrutiny; consider whether an SME venue or direct main-board listing better serves long-term strategy. Use pre-IPO education services exchanges provide. For investors: Diversify between established listed companies and a select set of SMEs—apply active due diligence on SME financials, promoter track record, and liquidity. Treat SME allocations as higher risk/high return. For exchanges/regulators: Continue improving surveillance, standardise disclosure across SME platforms where possible, and invest in investor education campaigns to reduce information asymmetry. 9. Outlook (near term) Most major advisory houses and banks saw a cautiously improving pipeline through H1–Q3 2025: more issuers willing to test the market, SPACs returning in a curated way, and regional variability (Americas and parts of Asia leading proceeds while Europe rebuilds). SME listings are likely to remain active where local investor demand and exchange support are strong (e.g., India, parts of Europe). However, a sustained recovery requires macro stability—lower volatility, clearer global trade policy, and accommodative capital markets. If those conditions hold, expect opportunistic pockets of high-quality IPOs and continued maturation of SME listing ecosystems. 10. Short recommendations (one-line each) Issuers: prepare governance and communications early; choose the listing venue that fits growth stage. Investors: treat SME allocations as active, research-intensive bets. Exchanges/regulators: keep improving disclosure, investor education, and mechanisms to promote liquidity. Advisors/underwriters: price conservatively, stress-test deals against volatility scenarios.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet