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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave Update: Wave (iv) Correction UnfoldingThis EUR/USD chart shows the market undergoing a complex corrective phase, labelled as wave (iv), likely forming a triangle pattern (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) after an impulsive rally. The correction is taking place within a well-defined base channel, suggesting consolidation before a potential breakout into wave (v) targeting higher levels near 1.19–1.20. As long as the channel holds, the Elliott Wave structure supports a bullish continuation once the correction completes. Keep following for regular breakdowns as the bigger trend unfolds.
by EWaveInsights
EURUSD: The Market Is Looking Up! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.15135 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.15295.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Long
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Bearish Continuation AnalysisFor this following week let's analyze what possible outcomes we may face. First and foremost, the trend is your friend. We can see that, combined with recent news, bears are in full control. After breaking out, and closing bearish, of the consolidation channel (white) we would prefer to look for a retest and liquidity sweep between 1.155 and 1.157 area. With a proper confirmation to the downside we can enter for a short position and target the FVG, possibly taking profits near the 1.14 level. Respecting the trendline (green), confirmed by 3 taps, we can also expect a retracement back to the same trendline and see how market will react. Expectations are that it will continue bearish but only time will tell when we reach that area. If that's the case I will be keeping my eye for possibilities of a short between 1.156 and 1.16. We are in an area where there is high demand as well. Let's keep our eyes open for hints of reversals. Set your triggers and lets have a good week.
Short
by mosadb777
Bullish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.1453 1st Support: 1.1371 1st Resistance: 1.1558 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by IC Markets
EURUSD: Fed less dovish impairs EUR?Fundamental approach: - The euro-dollar traded lower this week, pressured by a firmer US dollar and divergence in monetary policy, as the Fed became less dovish. - At the same time, the ECB held rates steady and maintained a cautious outlook. The euro remained under pressure despite slightly better Eurozone data, with core inflation ticking up but not enough to drive expectations of an ECB rate change; meanwhile, improving risk sentiment and reduced odds of a Dec Fed cut supported the US dollar, helped in part by easing, but not fully resolved, US-China trade tensions.​ - Key drivers included the Fed recent rate cut and Chairman Powell's statement that more easing is not guaranteed, which led to US dollar strength and overshadowed Eurozone retail and inflation numbers that met forecasts. In addition, the ECB's steady rate guidance and optimistic growth forecast failed to support the euro, keeping the EURUSD near three-month lows as investors focused on central bank policy divergence and resilient US labor data.​ - The pair could remain under pressure unless US data softens or the Fed's guidance shifts. Technical approach: - EURUSD plunged after breaking below the key level at around 1.1560. The price is below both EMAs, indicating that a bearish momentum persists. - Remaining below the key resistance at 1.1560 may prompt a continuous decline to retest the support at 1.1400. - Conversely, if EURUSD closes above 1.1560, the price may retest both EMAs confluence with the descending channel's upper bound. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
EURUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 | 📊 EURUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
EUR/USD WEEKLY ANNALISE 03-07 NOV 2025 🕓 5️⃣ ENTRY STRATEGY (LOWER TIMEFRAME CONFIRMATION) The chart note says: “Take sells on LTF confirmation — 5M TF would be best.” Meaning: Don’t just sell blindly at OB/FVG. Wait for confirmation on the 5-minute chart, such as: Liquidity sweep (taking out short-term highs) CHoCH / BOS (Change of Character) FVG entry / OB retest in the 5M TF This ensures precision entries with smaller stop loss and higher R:R. 🎯 6️⃣ TARGET ZONES (TAKE PROFIT AREAS) There are three major downside zones: Target Zone Price Area Description Daily BPR ~1.1460 First key liquidity target; expected strong reaction here Daily Imbalance (below) ~1.1420–1.1430 Second target; continuation zone Monthly Next BISI/BPR (Next DOL) ~1.1370–1.1400 Final target zone — likely where a deeper reversal or pullback starts Essentially, the analyst expects: Retracement up → Tap into OB / FVG → Strong sell-off → Reach 1.1460 → Possibly extend to 1.1370 zone. 📉 7️⃣ EXPECTED PRICE MOVEMENT SUMMARY Step-by-step projection: Retrace Upward Toward 1.1580–1.1620 (fill FVG + retest H4 OB) Trigger Institutional Selling After filling those imbalances, expect bearish rejection. Drop Toward 1.1460 Hit Daily BPR (liquidity pool target) Deeper Extension Potential move to 1.1370–1.1400 range — the monthly rebalancing zone (next DOL). ⚙️ 8️⃣ OVERALL OUTLOOK 🔸 Bias: Bearish 🔸 Short-term: Retracement up to OB/FVG zone (sell zone) 🔸 Medium-term: Drop toward 1.1460 🔸 Long-term: Possibly extend to 1.1370–1.1400 🔸 Best entry confirmation: Wait for 5M liquidity sweep + CHoCH at sell zone 💬 9️⃣ Key Takeaway (Trader’s View) This chart tells a story of smart money behavior: Institutions engineered liquidity at the highs (London sweep), Are now retracing up to rebalance price (fill FVGs / OBs), Then planning to drive price lower toward unfilled inefficiencies and liquidity below. So the goal for the trader: Sell from premium zones (OB/FVG) → Target liquidity below → Manage risk with 5M confirmation.
Short
by Bilalxau
EUR/USD Is Recovering: Breaking 1.1570, Heading Toward New HighsEUR/USD is currently in the process of recovering after hitting strong support at 1.1500. This is a positive sign as the price is bouncing back from the lows and beginning to build upward momentum. While it is still within a descending channel, the price breaking the 1.1530 resistance level indicates a potential continuation of the upward trend in the short term. The next key resistance level is 1.1570. If the price can break through this level and hold above it, EUR/USD could continue its strong upward move, opening up opportunities to reach new highs. However, if the price fails to stay above 1.1500, the possibility of a pullback to that support level remains high. Given the current trend, if EUR/USD successfully breaks through 1.1570, the pair could continue to move higher, creating favorable long-term trading opportunities for investors.
Long
by Kairo_Vexen
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Reaction Off Key ResistanceEURUSD is rising towards a pullback resistance at 1.1555, which aligns with the 61.8% FIbonacci projection. The stop loss is placed above a 50% Fibonacci retracement, at 1.1594. While the take profit is placed at the multi-swing low support level, at 1.1508. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Short
by Tradu
EUR/USD-Nov 3, 2025Latest performance of the EUR/USD currency pair: It remains under pressure, down for the fourth consecutive day, and it is hovering near the key support level of around 1.1500. If that level breaks, there could be further downside toward 1.1400 or even lower levels. The US Dollar is strong, supported by rising US Treasury yields and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts. Technical indicators like the RSI and ADX suggest further downside risks and a strengthening trend. The overall sentiment is bearish for EUR/USD.
by GlazeInvestments
EURUSD : Status @ 30/10/2025Direction: Sell Signal triggered: 30/10/2025 Stop when: a) Stop Loss @ 1.1666; or if b) Buy signal triggered Good luck. Two days ago, we finally had a SELL signal. It works nicely with the 'trendline' - everything works as anticipated. To those who can see, the price is now at/near the support area. There are 2 ways to trade this. First is to wait until the price breaks below support. The other way is to wait for a Sell Signal at the top while looking out for the NEW 'trendline'. Good luck.
Short
by i_am_siew
Risks and Limitations of Time Zone ArbitrageIntroduction Time zone arbitrage is a strategy that takes advantage of the differences in market operating hours across the globe. Financial markets in various regions — such as Asia, Europe, and North America — operate at different times of the day due to time zone variations. Traders exploit these gaps to profit from price discrepancies in stocks, commodities, or currencies before markets overlap or react to global developments. While this approach may sound lucrative, it comes with several risks and limitations that can undermine potential profits. In this discussion, we’ll explore the major challenges of time zone arbitrage — from market inefficiencies and execution risks to regulatory hurdles and technological barriers. 1. Market Efficiency and Price Correction One of the biggest challenges in time zone arbitrage is increasing market efficiency. Modern financial markets are interconnected through high-frequency trading (HFT), algorithmic trading, and real-time data feeds. These technologies reduce the time it takes for price discrepancies to disappear. For example, if the U.S. market closes with a sharp rally in tech stocks, the Asian market (such as Japan or India) will often adjust its prices almost instantly when it opens. This rapid reaction leaves little room for traders to profit from any price misalignment. In essence, markets have become too efficient for manual or slow-reacting arbitrageurs to gain consistent profits. What was once an opportunity lasting hours may now last mere milliseconds. 2. Execution Delays and Latency Risk Even a slight delay in order execution can completely change the outcome of a trade. Time zone arbitrage requires near-instant transactions because prices can change rapidly between markets. Execution latency may occur due to: Network delays or poor internet connectivity. Broker platform lag. Differences in settlement systems or trading speeds between exchanges. For instance, by the time a trader executes an arbitrage order between the London and Tokyo markets, prices might have already adjusted to reflect global sentiment, eliminating any profit potential. Latency risk particularly affects retail traders, as institutional players use advanced infrastructure with microsecond execution capabilities. This makes the competition uneven. 3. Currency Conversion and Exchange Rate Risk Since time zone arbitrage often involves trading across international markets, foreign exchange (forex) risk becomes significant. When traders buy assets in one currency and sell them in another, fluctuations in exchange rates can erode profits or even cause losses. For example, suppose a trader profits from a stock arbitrage between the U.S. and Japanese markets. If the Japanese yen strengthens unexpectedly against the U.S. dollar before the trade settles, the final profit could diminish or turn negative. Moreover, transaction costs involved in currency conversions — such as bank fees or forex spreads — further reduce the net gains from arbitrage trades. 4. Regulatory Restrictions and Compliance Issues Each country has its own financial regulations, taxation policies, and trading restrictions. When traders engage in time zone arbitrage across jurisdictions, they must comply with multiple regulatory frameworks. Potential issues include: Capital controls that restrict the free movement of funds across borders. Reporting requirements that make it difficult to operate anonymously. Taxation differences that may eat into profits or create double-taxation risks. Banned practices, as some countries limit certain forms of short-selling or speculative trading. Failure to comply with these regulations can lead to penalties, account freezes, or even legal action — especially for traders operating without proper licensing. 5. Liquidity Constraints Time zone arbitrage depends on market liquidity, which refers to how easily assets can be bought or sold without affecting prices. However, not all markets are equally liquid. For example, the U.S. and European markets are deep and highly liquid, but smaller exchanges in Asia or Africa might experience low trading volumes. This can result in: Wider bid-ask spreads, reducing profit margins. Difficulty in executing large orders without slippage. Delayed trade settlements. Low liquidity also increases the risk of being “stuck” in a position — unable to sell at the desired price before the market adjusts. 6. Overnight and Weekend Risks Since markets in different time zones open and close at varying hours, overnight positions expose traders to unexpected market movements. For instance, a trader who buys shares on a U.S. exchange and plans to sell them in an Asian market the next morning could face risk from: Overnight geopolitical events. Economic data releases. Company earnings announcements. Unexpected global news or natural disasters. Similarly, holding positions over weekends or holidays when markets are closed may result in gaps — where prices open significantly higher or lower than the previous close — causing unplanned losses. 7. Data Inconsistencies and Information Lag Reliable and real-time data is essential for time zone arbitrage. However, data inconsistencies between markets or time delays in financial reporting can distort traders’ judgments. For example, corporate earnings reported in one country might not be immediately reflected in another region’s market data feeds. Traders relying on outdated or inaccurate information might take positions based on incomplete insights, leading to financial losses. Moreover, subscription-based financial data services or news terminals can be expensive, putting retail traders at a disadvantage compared to large institutional firms. 8. High Transaction and Operational Costs Arbitrage across multiple markets involves multiple layers of cost, including: Brokerage commissions. Clearing and settlement charges. Forex conversion fees. Cross-border transfer costs. Exchange access fees. These expenses can significantly reduce the net profit margin, especially for small traders. Unlike large institutions that negotiate low transaction fees, retail traders often face higher costs per trade, making time zone arbitrage economically unviable in many cases. 9. Competition from Algorithmic Traders Modern financial markets are dominated by algorithmic and high-frequency trading systems that can detect and exploit price discrepancies far faster than humans. These algorithms continuously scan global exchanges for arbitrage opportunities and execute trades automatically within milliseconds. As a result, manual traders rarely find meaningful gaps before algorithms close them. The speed advantage of these systems, combined with their capacity to execute thousands of trades per second, has made time zone arbitrage extremely competitive and less profitable for ordinary investors. 10. Psychological and Logistical Challenges Time zone arbitrage requires traders to monitor markets that operate in different time zones — often late at night or early in the morning. This leads to physical and mental strain, affecting decision-making and accuracy. Maintaining focus across multiple trading sessions can result in: Fatigue and stress. Increased likelihood of human errors. Poor reaction to sudden news or market movements. Additionally, managing trades across various countries involves handling multiple trading accounts, regulatory systems, and tax jurisdictions — making operations complex and time-consuming. 11. Limited Profit Margins Unlike speculative trades that may yield large returns, arbitrage profits are typically small and incremental. These small gains depend on executing large volumes of transactions efficiently. For individuals or small firms without access to institutional-level resources, the cost-to-profit ratio often becomes unfavorable. When transaction costs, taxes, and risks are factored in, the net gain may be minimal or even negative. 12. Political and Economic Instability Global markets are influenced by macroeconomic policies, trade relations, and political stability. Sudden policy changes, such as import bans, sanctions, or currency devaluations, can disrupt arbitrage strategies overnight. For example, unexpected interest rate changes by central banks or geopolitical tensions (like wars or elections) can trigger volatile price swings, making arbitrage trades unprofitable or risky to hold. Conclusion While time zone arbitrage once offered profitable opportunities in the global market landscape, its potential has diminished significantly in the era of technological advancement, regulatory tightening, and high-speed trading systems. Today, only institutions equipped with advanced infrastructure, deep liquidity access, and global compliance frameworks can effectively capitalize on fleeting cross-market discrepancies. For individual traders, time zone arbitrage presents high complexity and low reward, often outweighed by the risks of execution delays, currency fluctuations, and regulatory hurdles. In short, while the theory of profiting from market time gaps remains appealing, in practice, time zone arbitrage has become a high-risk, low-margin endeavor — best approached with caution, precision, and a deep understanding of global financial dynamics.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
EUR/USD Short Setup – Late Entry, Tight ManagementIf you’re not in yet: Wait for a tiny pullback (1.1550–1.1570) for a better entry. If you insist on entering now (1.1520): Reduce position size — you’re entering late into the swing, and the next support (1.1480) is close. Stop-loss: 1.1640 Target: 1.1480 → 1.1450 Reasoning: EUR/USD remains in a clean downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows intact. Momentum is still bearish, and the recent retest of 1.1580–1.1600 resistance confirmed sellers remain in control. Plan: - Wait for minor pullback into 1.1550–1.1570 to rejoin the down move. - Keep position small if entering now at 1.1520. - Trail stop once price breaks 1.1480 and lock in partial profits near 1.1450. Bias: Bearish until a daily close above 1.1600.
Short
by MarketMorty
EURUSD H4 | Price Rebounds from 50% Fibonacci Support LevelEUR/USD has bounced off the buy entry whic his a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracemnt and could rise from this level to the upside. Buy entry is at 1.1621, whichis a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracemnt. Stop loss is at 1.1582, which is a pullback support. Take profit is at 1.1718, whichis an overlap resistance. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Long
by Tradu