USD/PLN Analysis (310 words) The current USD/PLN trajectory iUSD/PLN Analysis (310 words)
The current USD/PLN trajectory is shaped by a sharp clash between global and local forces. **Broad-based USD strength** remains the primary upward driver, as persistently delayed market expectations for Fed rate cuts keep dollar yields elevated, attracting capital flows and pressuring the pair broadly.
However, the USD/PLN’s distinct feature is the **resilience of the złoty**. This is largely attributable to Poland’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals, notably its **relatively high interest rates (currently 5.75%)**, which encourage carry trades and provide underlying support. Additionally, anticipated inflows of EU recovery funds have improved the fiscal outlook and bolstered market confidence.
Near-term volatility will heavily depend on the **monetary stance of the National Bank of Poland (NBP)** and shifts in **global risk sentiment**. A more hawkish-than-expected hold by the NBP against inflationary pressures could limit the złoty’s declines. Technically, the **4.00** level represents a critical psychological and technical resistance. A sustained break above could open the path toward the 4.05–4.10 zone. Conversely, should dollar momentum fade, the pair may retreat to consolidate within the 3.95–3.92 support band. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a latent risk factor.
