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U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble

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The Russian Ruble Collapses: Sanctions & ExportsFundamentals : Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022. Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months. "...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (www.dallasfed.org). "Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable." "Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (www.dallasfed.org) "With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness ." (www.dallasfed.org) Technicals : Weekly and Daily HHHL USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support Weekly uHd developing Projection: USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
Long
by Rocketman
20
Is Russia's Financial Fortress Built on Shifting Sands?The transformation of Russia's financial system has been nothing short of seismic. Once deeply integrated with global markets, Moscow's monetary landscape now finds itself in a state of radical reconfiguration, navigating the turbulent waters of international isolation. This shift carries profound implications, not just for Russia, but for the very foundations of the global financial order. At the heart of this evolution lies the Russian Central Bank, whose Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, has found herself at the center of an unprecedented storm. Tasked with controlling inflation amid soaring interest rates, Nabiullina faces a growing chorus of dissent from Russia's business elite - a rare and significant development in a country where corporate voices have long remained muted. This internal conflict underscores the delicate balance the Central Bank must strike, as it seeks to stabilize the ruble and safeguard economic growth in the face of crippling Western sanctions. Russia's financial system has demonstrated remarkable adaptability, forging new international partnerships and developing alternative payment mechanisms. Yet, these adaptations come at a cost, as increased transaction costs, reduced transparency, and limited access to global markets reshape the country's economic landscape. Consumer behavior, too, has evolved, with Russians increasingly turning to cash transactions and yuan-denominated assets, further signaling the shift away from traditional Western financial systems. As Russia navigates this uncharted territory, the implications extend far beyond its borders. The reconfiguration of its financial architecture is shaping new models for sanctions resistance, the emergence of parallel banking networks, and a potential realignment of global currency trading patterns. The lessons learned from Russia's experience may well influence the future of international economic relationships, challenging long-held assumptions about the resilience of the global financial order.
Long
by MorMedia
USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024. As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat. The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost. As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions. Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target: This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it. At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
📊 USD vs RUB (102, 114 & 132 Within 3-12 Months)The U.S. Dollar is set to continue gaining against the Russian Ruble, so whatever financial situation has been going on since June 2022 we are likely to continue getting more of the same. Whatever sociopolitical dynamics have been playing out, not much is set to change based on this chart. There was a small correction between October-November, but the dynamics playing out since June 2022 through August 2023 should go back to front page. It seems it will speed up, but we have limited information coming from this chart. Couple this analysis with your knowledge of the geopolitical situation and you might get a better picture; fundamentals, which I lack. I hope you find this chart and analysis useful. Protect your assets. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
3
Ruble developing ground to restructure third world economiesOn the presented chart we have prepared, you can see correlations of Ruble currency with Telecoms, Steel producing, Concrete producing, Land transport and Medicine. As you can see Ruble is building a solid ground to become a back end for the developing world destroyed by conflicts and fist fights. ATR is going down and from the june it shows backward correlation with Ruble. This is good because this means Ruble can rise without volatility. Telecommunications prices are falling after this event. Steel producing showing strange pattern and can be a risk for the Ruble. Concrete producing and transportation developing a good foundation. Transportation industry is still and strong. And medicine industry showing weakness but we see rise in pharmaceuticals profits so we hope this will drag whole venture up.
by UnknownUnicorn462803
2
USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib. We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0). Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
Weaker RoubleUSD:RUB is now re-testing last months high of 73:1, which has been an area of interest since early 2020. Having formed a bullish wedge in the process, if broken upwards, 75:1, 78:1, 80:1 are logical targets for ladder sells. Technically, classical charting principals dictate a target of 85, which coincides with the last real area of historic price action for USD:RUB - further is bubble territory with 'pie in the sky' targets of 95:1, 107:1, etc, and I don't think those levels are in the cards anytime soon. Fundamentally, I am monitoring the effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russian exports, which seem to be doing their job, as well as the actions of the CB which can halt this movement in a flash. Invalidation at around 69:1
Long
by AspiringPro
2
USDRUB updatePrice has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure. Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future. 1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity ( less than 50 rubles) for further up movement to 137 rubles (sellers liquidity swap). 2 scenario: price continues an uptrend straight away to 137 rubles after what big drop will take place to 50 rubles (less than 50 rubles). In my subjective opinion first scenario is more likely to happen. But for me 96 rubles level isn't a final line for a drop. If we go to lower timeframes we will see imbalance at 110 rubles level. So I'm waiting price to reach 113 rubles (fibo + 1W order block) and then look for shorts. Let's see how it'll go on :)
by margarita_morozova
1