USD:RUB is now re-testing last months high of 73:1, which has been an area of interest since early 2020.
Having formed a bullish wedge in the process, if broken upwards, 75:1, 78:1, 80:1 are logical targets for ladder sells. Technically, classical charting principals dictate a target of 85, which coincides with the last real area of historic price action for USD:RUB - further is bubble territory with 'pie in the sky' targets of 95:1, 107:1, etc, and I don't think those levels are in the cards anytime soon.
Fundamentally, I am monitoring the effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russian exports, which seem to be doing their job, as well as the actions of the CB which can halt this movement in a flash.
Invalidation at around 69:1
Having formed a bullish wedge in the process, if broken upwards, 75:1, 78:1, 80:1 are logical targets for ladder sells. Technically, classical charting principals dictate a target of 85, which coincides with the last real area of historic price action for USD:RUB - further is bubble territory with 'pie in the sky' targets of 95:1, 107:1, etc, and I don't think those levels are in the cards anytime soon.
Fundamentally, I am monitoring the effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russian exports, which seem to be doing their job, as well as the actions of the CB which can halt this movement in a flash.
Invalidation at around 69:1
Comment:
Triangle backtest at 73, then off to 80, is my guess. Below 73 the structure is invaldiated and we can fall back to 69-70.
Comment:
I underestimated how significant the 75-76 area is. We can probably spend some good time here before going back up (or down)
Comment:
Consolidating and gradually growing beyond 75-76 is an interesting development.
Next, between 78-80 is a very powerful level that has historically created many false breakouts, as well as rejections. In Mar 2022 upon finally breaking closing above, USDRUB rallied 100%.
On paper, the ascending triangle target is around 1:83, but if we make it all the way up there gradually, and close above, then that would be just the beginning of this historic rally.
I'm still deciding how hawkish I want to be going forward, but certainly preparing to take some money off the table as risk management.
Next, between 78-80 is a very powerful level that has historically created many false breakouts, as well as rejections. In Mar 2022 upon finally breaking closing above, USDRUB rallied 100%.
On paper, the ascending triangle target is around 1:83, but if we make it all the way up there gradually, and close above, then that would be just the beginning of this historic rally.
I'm still deciding how hawkish I want to be going forward, but certainly preparing to take some money off the table as risk management.
Comment:
I took some profits and bought rubles today at around 1:82.
I wanted to sell on the way up rather than down once the local top is hit should the proverbial avalanche begin (burned too many times in crypto I suppose). Though, I guess this rally could technically continue indefinitely until the central bank steps in, and being that the next meeting is 28-04, that leaves two weeks for the govt to take emergency action. Since RUB is basically decoupled from oil now, government intervention is the only thing I could imagine would save the show.
The next areas of interest I will be watching for a possible culmination of this move is at 1:85. It seems like a *logical* place to taper off, but beyond that we're basically freefalling towards 95, 105, and so on, which is obviously coming, knowing the ruble, but I am skeptical that it will come this fast!
I wanted to sell on the way up rather than down once the local top is hit should the proverbial avalanche begin (burned too many times in crypto I suppose). Though, I guess this rally could technically continue indefinitely until the central bank steps in, and being that the next meeting is 28-04, that leaves two weeks for the govt to take emergency action. Since RUB is basically decoupled from oil now, government intervention is the only thing I could imagine would save the show.
The next areas of interest I will be watching for a possible culmination of this move is at 1:85. It seems like a *logical* place to taper off, but beyond that we're basically freefalling towards 95, 105, and so on, which is obviously coming, knowing the ruble, but I am skeptical that it will come this fast!
Comment:
I'm guessing ranging between 68 and 78 for the rest of the year, back to the "pre-war" range.
Comment:
We made it to 1:85, the last of my targets on this chart. However a lot has changed since I made this in February. The political situation has gotten far worse in Russia and the volume has greatly picked up around these levels. It feels like the real melt is just starting. I'm not in any rush to part with my USD right now.
Comment:
1:107 next is my guess. We've all seen it before. Nice long consolidation at a new range, then a big continuation move. Russian government asleep at the wheel as always. Slight interest rate hikes just to slow the rot for a little while.