Activation trigger: 4h-close > 3977 (KC-Lower recap)Snapshot (last 4h-candle) — with the meaning of each indicator
• Price: ~3910.5 — current base point.
• VWAP (entire period): ~4245.2; z(Price−VWAP) ≈ −2.72 — price is significantly lower than "fair" (by VWAP), deviation is stronger than usual → increased probability of average return.
• aVWAP (anchors): start 4245.2, 60d 4256.0, from swing low 4036.6, from swing high 4020.0 — below swing anchors ⇒ sellers are locally dominant; below global (start/60d) ⇒ the cycle is still under pressure.
• Donchian 20: High 4228.8 / Mid 4025.1 / Low 3821.3 — boundaries of the local trading frame; Mid is often the target of rotation.
• Donchian 55: High 4643.7 / Mid 4232.5 / Low 3821.3 — "higher" range; breaking Mid changes the balance.
• Volume Profile (~60d): POC ~4490.5, VAL ~3627.2, VAH ~4778.2 — we are far below POC, inside the value-area; POC is a "magnet" for returns.
• HVN (volume nodes): ~4275–4420 and 4538–4610 (stable supply/demand zones).
• LVN (thin spots): ~3939, 4059–4107, 3723, 3435–3531 (slippery acceleration corridors).
• RSI(14): ~16.3 — deep oversold; often anticipates a rebound (but not always immediately in a strong trend).
• MFI(14): ~8.5 — oversold, taking into account volume; reinforces the thesis about a technical bounce.
• CMF(20): ~−0.06 — light capital outflow; for a stable reverse, you need ≥0.
• MACD(12/26/9): line −98.6 < signal −85.5, hist. −13.2 — bearish impulse is still active, the histogram is shrinking → impulse weakening.
• ADX/DMI(14): ADX ~63.0; +DI ~3.4 / −DI ~42.8 — very strong downtrend (−DI ≫ +DI).
• ATR(14): ~81.8$ — characteristic 4h swing; used for buffers.
• Keltner: Upper 4285 / Mid 4131 / Lower 3977 — the price is below KC-Lower: statistically, this is the mean-reversion zone to Mid (if the market makes a level recap).
• Bollinger(20,2): Upper 4291 / Mid 4126 / Lower 3960 — below BB-Lower; mean-reversion to 4126 is likely when the trend weakens.
• BB-Squeeze: OFF — no squeeze; volatility is already open.
• z(Price−VWAP) ≈ −2.72 — the "discount" to VWAP is abnormally large → extreme on the selling side.
• OBV z-scores: z50 −1.98 / z100 −2.56 / z200 −2.93, OBV ROC(10) ≈ −0.16 — volume background for the fall (distribution), no fresh influx of buyers is visible.
• Open Interest: ~1.05M, z(168) ≈ −0.07, ROC(5/10) ≈ +0.05/+0.05 — moderate set of positions on the decline (it looks like shorts were added); this strengthens trend continuations, but also creates fuel for short-squeeze at the recap.
Latest divergences (auto-detector)
• RSI: bullish on Aug 18 07:00 → Aug 19 03:00, bearish on Aug 24 03:00 → Aug 24 19:00
• MACD: bullish on Sep 8 19:00 → Sep 9 15:00, bearish on Sep 15 23:00 → Sep 17 07:00
• OBV: bullish 7 Sep 19:00 → 8 Sep 07:00, bearish 15 Sep 23:00 → 17 Sep 07:00
• MFI: bullish 7 Sep 19:00 → 8 Sep 07:00, bearish 10 Sep 15:00 → 11 Sep 07:00
⸻
What does it mean now
1. Mode: an extremely strong downward trend (ADX>60), with RSI/MFI in deep oversold, and the price below KC/BB-Lower and significantly below VWAP → a technical rotation towards the averages is statistically imminent; without confirmation, the market may still "slide along the lower edge."
2. Profile: under the upper HVN and significantly lower than POC ~4490 → KC/BB-Mid (≈4130) and Donch-20 Mid (4025) will act as a magnet on a stable recap round; above is 4232 (Donch-55 Mid).
3. Derivatives: OI slightly ↑ on red bars and OBV-z strongly neg. — downward extensions are possible, but with the first powerful recap, there is a chance for a short-squeeze.
⸻
Key levels
Resistance: 3977 (KC-Lower) → 4025 (Donch-20 Mid) → 4126/4131 (BB/KC-Mid) → 4232 (Donch-55 Mid) → 4285/4291 (KC/BB-Upper) → HVN-cluster 4275–4420 → 4490 (POC).
Supports: 3960 (BB-Lower) → 3939 (LVN) → 3821 (Donch-Low 20/55) → 3723 (LVN) → 3627 (VAL) → 3531/3459/3435 (LVN-pockets).
⸻
Scenarios and triggers (not the financial council)
A) Basic - rotation to the middle (4025 → 4126/4131)
Status: not activated yet (close < KC-Lower).
• Activation trigger: 4h-close > 3977 (KC-Lower recap) and better > ~4018 (KC-Lower + 0.5×ATR, ATR≈81.8), with RSI > 25–30, MFI > 20, hist. MACD↑, CMF → 0.
• Targets: 4025 → 4126/4131 → 4232 on impulse.
• Invalidator: return < 3977 after recap, especially if OI ROC+ is on a red candle and OBV z50 ≤ −2.0.
B) Continuation of the downward trend
• Trigger: 4h-close < 3821 (Donch-Low), ADX ≥ 40, OBV z50 ≤ −2.0, OI ROC+ on the fall.
• Targets: 3723 (LVN) → 3627 (VAL) → 3531/3459/3435 (LVN-pockets).
• Invalidator: fast return > 3977 and hold.
C) Short-squeeze (acceleration up)
• Trigger: impulse break and hold > 4232 (Donch-55 Mid) or > 4285/4291 (KC/BB-Upper) when OI decreases and OBV increases.
• Targets: HVN 4275–4420 → 4490 (POC) → 4643 (Donch-55 High) on development.
• Invalidator: fake breakout with return < 4130.
⸻
Tactics (example of logic)
• Impulse long (on the base): after closing > 4018. Partial fixation at 4025, main fixation at 4126/4131; then, trail to 4232. Stop under 3977 (or local minimum of the recap) with a buffer of 0.5×ATR (~41$).
• Reversal long (conservative): from KC-Lower/BB-Lower 3977/3960 only when demand reacts (RSI/MFI up, CMF→0/+, hist. MACD is shrinking). Targets 4025 → 4130.
• Contra-trend short: on rejection 4126/4131 → 4232 at RSI<50, hist. MACD↓, OI ROC+ — targets 4025 → 3977; stop — over 4235–4240.
⸻
Briefly: what to expect
The basic setup is a technical rotation up (to 4025 → 4130), but it will turn on only after a recap > 3977 / better > 4018.
• We will confirm the recap → a logical move to Mid-am (4126/4131), with strength to 4232.
• We will break through 3821 on a growing OI/weak OBV → continuation down to 3723 → 3627 → 3530+
