USOILSPOT trade ideas
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave 3).The price is still not reaching the target of 60. I decided to make a new forecast, slightly changing the labeling of waves, or rather their importance.
At this stage, as before, I think that the price will reach the area of the level 60 in the middle wave “3”.
This movement is the development of the big corrective wave “C”. In general, the plan remains the same.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Breakout
Crude Oil broke and closed above a major daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, a broken structure turns into a potentially strong
support now.
I will expect a rise from that and a bullish continuation to 65.56 resistance.
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USOIL Analysis- Bearish OutlookUSOIL Analysis- Bearish Outlook
Crude oil is once again testing the resistance zone near $65.00, a level that has been rejected multiple times in the past. Sellers seem to remain strong at this area, keeping the price from breaking higher.
Currently, the chart suggests a possible pullback from resistance. If the bearish move continues, the first target is around $63.10, followed by the lower support area at $61.80.
As long as the price stays below $65.00, the short-term outlook remains bearish.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Complete Support & Resistance Analysis Today
Here is my latest structure analysis for WTI Oil.
Resistance 1: 63.7 - 64.1 area
Resistance 2: 65.6 - 66.8 area
Resistance 3: 70.2 - 70.5 area
Support 1: 61.4 - 62.0 area
Support 2: 59.0 - 60.8 area
Support 3: 55.3 - 57.3 area
The price is currently breaking Resistance 1.
A daily candle close above that may push the prices to Resistance 2.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bullish Confirmation?!
Update for my yesterday's idea for WTI Crude Oil.
The price retested a recently broken structure and we see a
strong bullish reaction to that today.
A bullish violation of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern
indicates a strong buying pressure.
I think that the market will continue growing and reach 64.65 resistance soon.
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OIL – Stuck in Range as Russian Supply Risks Counter OPEC+ PressOIL – OVERVIEW
Oil is on track for a modest weekly gain, but remains locked in a narrow range since early August. Bearish fundamentals—led by OPEC+’s accelerated output return—continue to cap upside potential.
However, lingering concerns over Russian supply risks following recent Ukrainian attacks on key infrastructure and Trump’s call for NATO allies to halt Russian oil purchases keep the market alert for potential spikes in volatility.
Technical Analysis
Crude maintains a bearish momentum while trading below 63.47 – 63.14, with downside targets at 61.83 and, if broken, 60.16.
A confirmed 4H close above 63.47 would shift momentum to bullish, opening a path toward 64.72 and 65.83.
Key Levels
Pivot: 63.14
Resistance: 63.47 – 64.72 – 65.83
Support: 61.83 – 60.16 – 58.70
Oil remains range-bound, with the 63.14–63.47 zone acting as a key decision area. A breakout will determine whether the next move favors a deeper pullback or a bullish reversal.
WTI OIL This is the bigger picture.WTI Oil (USOIL) is currently on the 2nd straight green week ahead of today's Fed Rate Decision. The long-term pattern though is has been a Channel Down since August 2022 and until it gets invalidated, the trend will remain bearish.
In fact, it has made 3 emphatic rejections on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 12 2024. The 1W RSI sequence since then, resembles the pattern of 2023, where WTI found a Higher Lows Support on the 1W MA200. The last such contact was on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before a last rebound to the top of the Channel Down.
That is exactly what we are expecting now, with the new 0.786 Fib waiting at $59.50. That is our medium-term Target.
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ROADMAP FOR OIL: Volatility Now, a Geopolitical Spark LaterThis isn't an update because the outlook has changed—it's been remarkably stable for months and even couple of years. Instead, this is about connecting the dots as we potentially approach a major inflection point.
Here’s the core idea: major geopolitical events aren't the drivers of crowd sentiment and price action. It's the other way around. Events like OPEC decisions or strikes on Iran happen when social mood has reached a tipping point, pushing politicians to act. These events cause volatility spikes on the chart but don't change the underlying trend; they simply create the corrective waves within it.
The chart is telling us that after the upcoming decline we're anticipating (based on wave count and indicators), a very powerful rally is due. This implies a major geopolitical catalyst, likely in late 2025 or 2026. Crucially, this spike will itself be just a large corrective wave up, setting the stage for the next major leg down in price.
The Technical Setup:
We're inside a complex double zigzag - - correction. The current (X) wave should unfold as either a combination (W)-(X)-(Y) or a flat pattern (A)-(B)-(C). A key tenet is that the trendline connecting the tops of and shouldn't be broken. That line is hard to define right now, which tells me the high for wave isn't in yet. This points to sustained and elevated volatility in the coming months.
The Big Picture (The Supercycle):
COVID likely marked the absolute bottom for energy prices. We are now in a major multi-decade upward supercycle. However, this cycle is so vast that we are still in its very first large wave. The entire corrective phase we're in now began in 2022 and could last until the late 2020s, potentially culminating in a global crisis sparked by conflict, escalating into trade wars, and exacerbated by the financial system vulnerabilities everyone is now preparing for.
Layer on top of that potential US production exhaustion and a post-2030 output decline across India and Asia, and you have a perfect recipe for a powerful oil rally in the future. But that story is for the next decade. For now, fasten your seatbelts for some turbulence.
#Oiltrading #ElliottWave #Socionomics #Macro #Trading #Geopolitics #Energy #Supercycle #Commodities
Review the crude oil movement Let’s review the crude oil movement last week. WTI prices declined amid concerns over the U.S. economy and oversupply. Traders are still assessing the Fed’s remarks regarding further interest rate cuts.
In terms of price action, crude oil maintained a volatile downward trend. There was a brief rebound at one point, but the gains were eventually erased, and prices resumed their decline. The downtrend continued through Friday, yet the key support level of 62 remained unbroken. It is expected that crude oil will stage a rebound and go up in the coming week.
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback Trade From Support
WTI Crude Oil looks oversold after a test of a significant
daily horizontal demand zone.
A formation of a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame
indicates a strength of that structure.
With a high probability, the price will pull back to 62.38
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Could we see a bullish reversal?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 62.08
1st Support: 60.99
1st Resistance: 64.18
Disclaimer:
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Oil Market Update📢 NFX TVC:USOIL Market Update
🛢 GBEBROKERS:USOIL
📊 ECONOMICS:USCOI EIA Crude Oil Inventories – Sep 17, 2025
Actual: -9.285M
Forecast: +1.400M
Previous: +3.939M
⚡ Huge bullish surprise – sharp drawdown vs forecast.
📍 Current Price: 64.3
Holding above 200-day SMA
Trading at key resistance, but zone already weakened from repeated tests.
🔀 Implication:
Given the bullish inventory print, I now lean towards Path B → liquidity push above 64.3 toward 65.0 (38.2% Fib level) before any meaningful bearish retracement.
⚠️ Keep in mind: ECONOMICS:USINTR decision still ahead → volatility risk.
Oil Trade Analysis📊 NFX GBEBROKERS:USOIL Oil Trade Analysis
FX:USOIL is currently trading at a critical resistance zone around $64.200. With no strong fundamentals to back the current bullish momentum, this move looks short-lived given the broader macroeconomic outlook (as discussed in our last WMA session).
🔀 Two key paths ahead:
Path A – Bearish Rejection🔻(Most Probable)
Price faces rejection at current SR zone.
Confluence with the 200-day SMA, which has acted as strong resistance for some time.
Likely scenario: sharp retracement downwards.
Path B – Liquidity Grab 🔸
Price breaks above the 200-day SMA and SR zone.
Pushes higher towards the next resistance at 65 (38.2% Fib level).
Expected to be a fakeout/liquidity grab before a heavy bearish drop.
📅 Market Movers to Watch Tomorrow:
FOMC Statement
USOil Inventory Report
Fed Rate Cut Decision
⚖️ Personally, I lean strongly towards Path A (bearish rejection🔻), but I’ll be waiting for confirmation before entering. News tomorrow will be the key catalyst.
💬 What’s your outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Crude Oil Eyes 4-Month Consolidation BreakoutOil prices have been consolidating within a triangle formation since the June 2025 high, which was triggered by the Israel–Iran escalation. Price action has traced a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, holding above the critical $61 support.
With five legs unfolding inside the triangle, a potential bullish breakout could take shape if the price holds above $64, opening the door toward: $66.80, $67.70, and $70.20, which aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel from 2022
A confirmed break above $70.20 could shift the long-term trend, transitioning from consolidation to a potential bullish reversal.
From the downside:
Failure to hold above $61 could see a retest of the 2025 lows, with key support levels at: $60.20, $59.20, $58.00.
Key events:
• FOMC meeting – Wednesday
• Ukraine-Russia refinery attacks
• Demand vs OPEC unwinds
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USOIL TodayToday the crude oil yet the key support level of 62 remained unbroken,We still predict that it will maintain an overall upward trend.
Buy 62.25 – 62.45
TP 62.75 - 62.95
SL 62.00
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance